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2026 Alaska U.S. Senate Election

Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.

Election: November 3, 2026
U.S. Senate • Alaska
Updated: 7/11/2026
0 days until Election Day November 3, 2026

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska will determine who holds the Class II Senate seat for a six-year term. Two-term Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term, facing a strong challenge from former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola (D), who is the only Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008. The race is conducted under Alaska's top-four nonpartisan primary system (August 18, 2026), followed by a ranked-choice general election on November 3, and has been further complicated by a second candidate named Dan J. Sullivan (a retired teacher with no relation to the incumbent) appearing on the primary ballot after a state Supreme Court ruling. With Republicans holding a 53–47 Senate majority and Democrats targeting this as a top pickup opportunity, the outcome could help determine control of the chamber; Peltola's entry has made the race competitive despite Alaska's recent Republican lean in federal elections.

Candidates

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Dan S. Sullivan is the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Alaska, first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020. A Harvard-educated attorney and retired Marine Corps colonel, he previously served as Alaska Attorney General (2009-2010) and Commissioner of Natural Resources (2010-2013), and held foreign policy roles in the George W. Bush administration. Sullivan serves on the Senate Armed Services, Commerce, Environment, and Veterans' Affairs committees.

Mary Peltola is a former U.S. Representative from Alaska's at-large district (2022-2025), the first Alaska Native member of Congress and the first woman to represent Alaska in the House. A Yup'ik Democrat, she previously served in the Alaska House of Representatives (1999-2009), on the Bethel City Council, and as a tribal judge. Her elections in 2022 were the first conducted under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, and she is running to flip the Senate seat.

Dan J. Sullivan is a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee from Petersburg, Alaska, who shares the same name as the incumbent senator. He filed to run as a Republican three days before the filing deadline and identifies as a 'pragmatic Republican centrist.' His candidacy drew controversy when the incumbent accused Democrats of planting him to confuse voters, though Dan J. Sullivan and both campaigns denied this. The Alaska Supreme Court ruled on June 29, 2026 that he must appear on the primary ballot.

Scott Kohlhaas is the Libertarian Party candidate for U.S. Senate in Alaska in 2026. A retired consultant and longtime Libertarian activist, he has held state chair positions for the Missouri, District of Columbia, and Alaska Libertarian Parties, and has run for various offices including Alaska House of Representatives (2020, 2024) and U.S. Senate (2014). He describes himself as an anti-war candidate and advocates for non-interventionist foreign policy, open borders, free markets, and individual liberty.

Carol "Kitty" Hafner is a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Alaska. A retired higher education administrator and former flight attendant, she has run for U.S. House in Alaska (2018) and Wyoming (2020) without ever having visited either state. She is the mother of Eric Hafner, a federal inmate serving a 20-year sentence who finished in the final four in Alaska's 2024 U.S. House race.

David Leslie is a Democratic candidate and LGBTQ+ activist running for U.S. Senate in Alaska. He also writes as an author for the Alaska Beacon.

Dustin Darden is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Alaska in 2026. A lifelong Alaskan born in Anchorage, he has worked as a school bus driver, carpenter, paralegal, and farmer. Darden previously ran for U.S. Senate in 2022 as a member of the Alaskan Independence Party and for Alaska House District 15 in 2024 as a Democrat. He describes his campaign as focused on constitutional rights, anti-corruption, and Christian values.

Fred Grauberger is a Republican candidate running for the U.S. Senate in Alaska in 2026. A retired motor vehicle operator from Chugiak, he is a first-time candidate and a member of the Teamsters union. Grauberger is one of seven Republicans competing in Alaska's top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026.

Race Forecast

Mary Peltola favored

Mary Peltola: 60% modeled win probability with a +2.0 pts estimated margin

Tilt D
Win Probability 60%
Estimated Margin +2.0 pts
Polling Inputs 0 polls
Forecast confidence: medium Model: DeepSeek V4 Flash Generated: 7/11/2026

About this research

Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated 7/11/2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.

Models: DeepSeek V4 FlashGPT-5 NanoClaude Haiku 4.5Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGrok 4.3
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Independent, sourced election research for informational purposes. Always confirm voting information with official election authorities.

AI-generated content notice: Candidate summaries, comparisons, classifications, and forecasts may be generated with AI and can be incomplete, incorrect, or outdated. Check the linked evidence and official election sources before relying on them. How Smarter.Vote uses AI.

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