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2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate Election

Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.

Election: November 3, 2026
U.S. Senate (statewide) • Arkansas
Updated: 7/2/2026
0 days until Election Day November 3, 2026

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas will be held on November 3, 2026. The incumbent, Tom Cotton, is seeking re-election. Hallie Shoffner advanced from the Democratic primary. This race will determine one of Arkansas's two representatives in the U.S. Senate.

Latest Poll

Magnolia Reporter · Apr 25

Cotton
62.7%
Shoffner
32.97%
Wadlin
4.32%
View detailed results ↓

Candidates

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Tom Cotton

Tom Cotton

R Incumbent

Tom Cotton is the incumbent U.S. Senator for Arkansas, first elected in 2014. He previously served one term in the U.S. House of Representatives for Arkansas's 4th congressional district. Before entering politics, Cotton served in the U.S. Army.

Hallie Shoffner is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer and CEO of SFR Seed. She advanced from the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate election in Arkansas.

Jeff Wadlin is a Bentonville businessman and the Libertarian Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in Arkansas, challenging incumbent Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner. He studied aerospace and mechanical engineering at the University of Virginia, earned an MBA from Northwestern University, and held roles at Caterpillar, Capital One, and Sam's Club before launching his own consulting business. Wadlin describes himself as a pragmatic centrist focused on uniting working families, defending personal liberty, and creating broad-based prosperity.

Race Forecast

Tom Cotton favored

Tom Cotton: 96% modeled win probability with a +28.0 pts estimated margin

Safe R
Win Probability 96%
Estimated Margin +28.0 pts
Polling Inputs 1 poll
Forecast confidence: high Model: DeepSeek V4 Flash Generated: 7/2/2026

Polling

Magnolia Reporter Apr 25, 2026
n=185
Tom Cotton
62.7%
Hallie Shoffner
32.97%
Jeff Wadlin
4.32%
Source

About this research

Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated 7/2/2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.

Models: DeepSeek V4 FlashGPT-5 NanoClaude Haiku 4.5Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGrok 4.3
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Independent, sourced election research for informational purposes. Always confirm voting information with official election authorities.

AI-generated content notice: Candidate summaries, comparisons, classifications, and forecasts may be generated with AI and can be incomplete, incorrect, or outdated. Check the linked evidence and official election sources before relying on them. How Smarter.Vote uses AI.

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