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2026 Arizona's 5th Congressional District Election

Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.

United States House of Representatives · Arizona's 5th Congressional District Updated October 8, 2026
0 days until Election Day November 3, 2026
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About this race

The 2026 race for Arizona's 5th Congressional District is an open-seat contest for the U.S. House seat held by Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running for governor rather than seeking re-election, and the outcome will help determine the partisan balance of the House in the 120th Congress. The East Valley district, spanning parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties including Chandler, Gilbert, Queen Creek, and Apache Junction, leans strongly Republican; Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican, and Donald Trump carried the district by roughly 16 to 20 points in 2024.

The July 21, 2026 primaries nominated former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump and defeated Daniel Keenan, and reproductive-health nurse Elizabeth Lee, who defeated Chris James and Brian Hualde. Lamb, sheriff from 2017 to 2024 and an unsuccessful 2024 U.S. Senate candidate, campaigns on border security, immigration enforcement, lower costs, and constitutional rights, while Lee, a first-time candidate and board-certified infertility nurse, campaigns on healthcare affordability, reproductive freedom, public education funding, and housing costs.

Lamb has raised far more money — about $1.2 million through mid-2026 compared with roughly $153,000 for Lee — and no independent general-election polling has been published, though Lee's campaign has released an internal Change Research survey showing her trailing by three to five points.

Candidates

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Mark Lamb

Mark Lamb

Republican

Mark Lamb is a Republican former Pinal County sheriff, serving from 2017 to 2024, and the GOP nominee for Arizona's 5th Congressional District. He won the July 21, 2026 primary with President Donald Trump's endorsement, defeating Daniel Keenan, after an unsuccessful run for the U.S. Senate in 2024. He campaigns as a "constitutional sheriff" and America First conservative emphasizing border security, immigration enforcement, lower costs, and constitutional rights.

Elizabeth Lee
Democratic

Elizabeth Lee is a board-certified reproductive health and infertility nurse and patient advocate from Gilbert, and the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 5th Congressional District. She won the July 21, 2026 Democratic primary with about 64.5% of the vote, defeating Chris James and Brian Hualde, in her first run for office. Her campaign emphasizes healthcare affordability, reproductive freedom, public education funding, and curbing corporate ownership of housing, and she does not accept corporate PAC money.

Forecast

Mark Lamb favored

Mark Lamb: 94% modeled win probability with a +14.5 pts estimated margin

Likely R
Mark Lamb win probability 94%
Estimated Margin +14.5 pts
Polling Inputs No public polls — estimate based on partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising
Forecast confidence: low Generated: Oct 8, 2026

About this research

Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated October 8, 2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.

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