2026 Arizona's 9th Congressional District Election
Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.
About this race
The 2026 election for Arizona's 9th Congressional District pits incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, a House Freedom Caucus member who has served in Congress since 2011, against Democratic Navy veteran Danielle Sterbinsky and independent write-in candidate William Perry in the November 3 general election. Gosar and Sterbinsky each won uncontested July 21 primaries in the sprawling, heavily Republican rural district that spans western Arizona and voted for Donald Trump and Gosar by more than 30 points in 2024.
The race is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report and Safe Republican by other major forecasters, so it is not expected to be competitive even as all 435 House seats are contested with Republicans holding a narrow majority. Key contrasts include Gosar's conservative record versus Sterbinsky's emphasis on accountability, veterans' issues, and rural economic concerns, while Perry campaigns on VA reform and term limits; Gosar holds a large campaign finance advantage, and an August 27, 2026 district debate featured Sterbinsky solo after Gosar did not participate.
Candidates
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Paul Gosar is the incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th Congressional District, first elected in 2010 and seeking a ninth term in 2026. A dentist by profession and member of the House Freedom Caucus, he won the uncontested Republican primary on July 21, 2026, with 67,577 votes and holds a large campaign finance advantage over his Democratic challenger. The district is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Danielle "Dani" Sterbinsky is the Democratic nominee for U.S. House in Arizona's 9th District, a Navy veteran (Operations Specialist on the USS Bainbridge), certified HR professional, former academic advisor, and working mother who emphasizes principled, pragmatic leadership and people-first solutions. She won the uncontested Democratic primary on July 21, 2026, with 31,371 votes and is challenging incumbent Republican Paul Gosar in the November 3 general election, trailing significantly in campaign fundraising. Her platform focuses on affordable healthcare, housing, education tied to local jobs, rural broadband, water protection, and accountability reforms such as term limits and campaign-finance transparency.
William Perry is an Independent Party write-in candidate for U.S. House in Arizona's 9th District in the November 3, 2026 general election. A 100% disabled U.S. Marine Corps veteran, former federal boat captain, and master scuba diver who describes having survived fifty years of homelessness, his campaign platform calls for abolishing the Department of Veterans Affairs, restoring food and rental assistance, imposing term limits on government officials, and eliminating the Electoral College.
Forecast
Paul Gosar favored
Paul Gosar: 97% modeled win probability with a +28.0 pts estimated margin
About this research
Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated September 3, 2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.