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2026 California's 48th Congressional District Election

Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.

United States House of Representatives · California's 48th Congressional District Updated October 10, 2026
0 days until Election Day November 3, 2026
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About this race

California's 48th Congressional District is an open U.S. House seat after Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired rather than seek reelection in a district redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifted the seat roughly 18 points toward Democrats and gave it a slight Democratic voter-registration edge. The June 2 top-two primary advanced Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond and Democrat San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert to the November 3 general election, a race widely seen as one of the few that could decide control of the House.

The first general-election poll (Lake Research Partners, released July 27, 2026) showed von Wilpert leading 48% to 46%, and a September SurveyUSA poll found her ahead 45% to 42% with 13% undecided. Desmond, endorsed by President Donald Trump, Issa, and the California Republican Party, campaigns on border security, affordability, and local government experience; he was added to the NRCC's MAGA Majority program and hosted a late-September fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Von Wilpert, endorsed by EMILYs List, the DCCC's Red to Blue program, Sen. Adam Schiff, and former Vice President Kamala Harris, emphasizes abortion rights, lowering costs, and opposing Trump's agenda. Outside groups are active on both sides, including a pro-Trump super PAC that has spent more than $175,000 attacking von Wilpert.

Candidates

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Jim Desmond

Jim Desmond

Republican

Jim Desmond is a San Diego County Supervisor, former Mayor of San Marcos, retired Delta Air Lines captain, and U.S. Navy veteran who is running for Congress in the 48th District. He emphasizes his local government leadership, border security advocacy, and focus on lowering costs and homelessness. Desmond was endorsed by retiring incumbent Darrell Issa and by President Donald Trump, was added to the NRCC's MAGA Majority program, and hosted a late-September 2026 fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Marni von Wilpert
Democratic

Marni von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember representing District 5, an attorney, and a former NLRB attorney who helped draft the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. A former prosecutor, workers' rights attorney, federal law clerk, and Peace Corps volunteer in Botswana, she campaigns on protecting abortion rights, lowering costs, opposing President Trump's agenda, and cleaning up corruption. In the fall of 2026 she campaigned with Sen. Adam Schiff and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who visited San Diego to support her bid.

Forecast

Marni von Wilpert favored

Marni von Wilpert: 82% modeled win probability with a +5.0 pts estimated margin

Likely D
Marni von Wilpert win probability 82%
Estimated Margin +5.0 pts
Polling Inputs 6 polls
Forecast confidence: low Generated: Oct 10, 2026

Polling

6 polls, newest first
SurveyUSA Oct 1, 2026
n=685
Jim Desmond 38%
Marni von Wilpert 47%
Source
SurveyUSA Sep 1, 2026
n=625
Jim Desmond 42%
Marni von Wilpert 45%
Source
Lake Research Partners Jul 14, 2026 · 2 months old
n=500
Jim Desmond 46%
Marni von Wilpert 48%
Source
SurveyUSA May 14, 2026 · 4 months old
n=507
Jim Desmond 29%
Marni von Wilpert 9%
Source
Tulchin Research May 6, 2026 · 5 months old
n=600
Jim Desmond 27%
Marni von Wilpert 16%
Source
SurveyUSA Apr 20, 2026 · 5 months old
n=500
Jim Desmond 25%
Marni von Wilpert 6%
Source

About this research

Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated October 10, 2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.

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