2026 California's 48th Congressional District Election
Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.
About this race
California's 48th Congressional District is an open U.S. House seat after Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired rather than seek reelection in a district redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifted the seat roughly 18 points toward Democrats and gave it a slight Democratic voter-registration edge. The June 2 top-two primary advanced Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond and Democrat San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert to the November 3 general election, a race widely seen as one of the few that could decide control of the House.
The first general-election poll (Lake Research Partners, released July 27, 2026) showed von Wilpert leading 48% to 46%, and a September SurveyUSA poll found her ahead 45% to 42% with 13% undecided. Desmond, endorsed by President Donald Trump, Issa, and the California Republican Party, campaigns on border security, affordability, and local government experience; he was added to the NRCC's MAGA Majority program and hosted a late-September fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Von Wilpert, endorsed by EMILYs List, the DCCC's Red to Blue program, Sen. Adam Schiff, and former Vice President Kamala Harris, emphasizes abortion rights, lowering costs, and opposing Trump's agenda. Outside groups are active on both sides, including a pro-Trump super PAC that has spent more than $175,000 attacking von Wilpert.
Candidates
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Jim Desmond is a San Diego County Supervisor, former Mayor of San Marcos, retired Delta Air Lines captain, and U.S. Navy veteran who is running for Congress in the 48th District. He emphasizes his local government leadership, border security advocacy, and focus on lowering costs and homelessness. Desmond was endorsed by retiring incumbent Darrell Issa and by President Donald Trump, was added to the NRCC's MAGA Majority program, and hosted a late-September 2026 fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Marni von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember representing District 5, an attorney, and a former NLRB attorney who helped draft the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. A former prosecutor, workers' rights attorney, federal law clerk, and Peace Corps volunteer in Botswana, she campaigns on protecting abortion rights, lowering costs, opposing President Trump's agenda, and cleaning up corruption. In the fall of 2026 she campaigned with Sen. Adam Schiff and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who visited San Diego to support her bid.
Forecast
Marni von Wilpert favored
Marni von Wilpert: 82% modeled win probability with a +5.0 pts estimated margin
Polling
6 polls, newest firstAbout this research
Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated October 10, 2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.