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2026 Iowa U.S. Senate Election

Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.

Election: November 3, 2026
United States Senate (Statewide) • Iowa
Updated: 8/10/2026
0 days until Election Day November 3, 2026

The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to fill the open seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. The race is a key battleground in the fight for Senate control: Iowa has trended sharply Republican in recent cycles — Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024 — and Democrats have not won a Senate race here since 2008, though recent polling shows the contest essentially tied. Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, endorsed by President Trump, faces Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a former Paralympian, in a race that has drawn national attention. Both major-party candidates have agreed to two statewide debates, and Libertarian Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn is also on the ballot.

Latest Poll

Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media · Aug 6

Hinson
48%
Turek
45%
6 polls total — view all ↓

Candidates

Compare all

Ashley Hinson is a U.S. Representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district, first elected in 2020. She announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2026, positioning herself as a conservative voice focused on economic growth, border security, and supporting veterans. Before Congress, she served in the Iowa House of Representatives and worked as a television news anchor.

Josh Turek is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Iowa in 2026. A two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball and a state representative for Iowa House District 20 since 2023, he was born with spina bifida. His campaign emphasizes healthcare, disability rights, veterans' issues, and economic opportunity.

Thomas Laehn is the Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa in 2026. He is the Greene County Attorney, elected in 2018 and reelected in 2022, making him the first Libertarian in Iowa history to hold an elective partisan office. A former political science professor and constitutional law instructor, Laehn campaigns against the two-party system and advocates limiting executive authority, protecting private property from eminent domain, leaving abortion regulation to the states, and decriminalizing marijuana.

Race Forecast

Ashley Hinson favored

Ashley Hinson: 63% modeled win probability with a +3.0 pts estimated margin

Lean R
Win Probability 63%
Estimated Margin +3.0 pts
Polling Inputs 6 polls
Forecast confidence: medium Model: DeepSeek V4 Flash (07-31) Generated: 8/8/2026

Polling

Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Aug 6, 2026
n=712
Ashley Hinson
48%
Josh Turek
45%
Source
Cygnal Jun 26, 2026
n=600
Ashley Hinson
44%
Josh Turek
46%
Source
Echelon Insights Apr 21, 2026
n=377
Ashley Hinson
46%
Josh Turek
45%
Source
Global Strategy Group Jun 11, 2026
n=1,000
Ashley Hinson
45%
Josh Turek
47%
Source
Siena College Jul 1, 2026
n=600
Ashley Hinson
48%
Josh Turek
46%
Source
Fox News Jul 1, 2026
n=1,003
Ashley Hinson
46%
Josh Turek
50%
Source

About this research

Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated 8/10/2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.

Models: DeepSeek V4 Flash (07-31)GPT-5.6 LunaClaude Haiku 4.5Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGrok 4.3
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Independent, sourced election research for informational purposes. Always confirm voting information with official election authorities.

AI-generated content notice: Candidate summaries, comparisons, classifications, and forecasts may be generated with AI and can be incomplete, incorrect, or outdated. Check the linked evidence and official election sources before relying on them. How Smarter.Vote uses AI.

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