2026 Texas U.S. Senate Election
Compare candidates’ positions, polling, and sourced race updates.
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas pits Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic state Representative James Talarico for the seat being vacated by four-term incumbent John Cornyn, whom Paxton unseated in a bitter May 26 Republican primary runoff. James Talarico won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2026. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate race since 1988, but the contest has become one of the most competitive and closely watched of the 2026 midterms, with a spate of August polls showing Talarico with narrow leads within the margin of error and record-breaking fundraising (over $30 million in Q2 2026, more than triple Paxton's $9 million). The race offers a sharp ideological contrast: Paxton, a Trump-aligned conservative and former impeachment defendant, emphasizes border security, election integrity, and deregulation, while Talarico, a former teacher running an economic-populist "New American Dream" campaign, backs abortion rights, a Medicare public option, and campaign finance reform. The contest has also been marked by mutual voter-fraud accusations over both candidates' voting addresses, debate negotiations, and Libertarian Ted Brown potentially siphoning votes in a tight race.
Candidates
Compare allJames Talarico is a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives (District 50) and the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026. A former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, he was first elected to the Texas House in 2018 and has focused on public education, lowering prescription drug costs, and campaign finance reform. He won the March 2026 Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote and has posted record-breaking fundraising totals while refusing corporate PAC donations. In August 2026 he rolled out a 'New American Dream' economic agenda attacking 'trickle-...
Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate and has served as Texas Attorney General since 2015. He defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 2026 Republican primary runoff, consolidating support from the party's conservative base. Paxton raised over $9 million in Q2 2026 — a personal best — and stands to benefit from a July 2026 Supreme Court ruling allowing unlimited coordinated spending between party committees and candidates. In July and August 2026, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune reported Paxton voted using an address where his estranged wife said he no longer lived, an...
Ted Brown is the Libertarian Party nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026. A retired independent insurance adjuster living in Austin, he has been active in the Libertarian Party since 1979, serving as chair of the Libertarian Party of California and currently as vice chair of the Libertarian Party of Travis County and candidate coordinator for the Libertarian Party of Texas. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2024, drawing more than 267,000 votes (about 2.4%), a record for a Libertarian candidate in Texas, and is courting disaffected conservative voters in the close 2026 race between Ken Paxton and J...
Race Forecast
Toss-up
Democratic candidate: 52% modeled win probability with a +1.5 pts estimated margin
Polling
About this research
Data compiled from public sources and analyzed using AI. Last updated 8/10/2026. Visit candidate websites for the most current information.