[{"id":"ak-governor-2026","title":"2026 Alaska Governor Election","office":"Governor","jurisdiction":"Alaska","state":"Alaska","contest_stage":"top_four_rcv","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:05:03.743822+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jonathan_Kreiss-Tomkins.jpg"},{"name":"Bernadette Wilson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bernadette_Wilson_20250707_053936.jpg"},{"name":"Dave Bronson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Bronson.jpg"},{"name":"Treg Taylor","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TregTaylor.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.76,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.76,"Republican":0.24},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kreiss-Tomkins leads the four-way field in the Alaska Survey Research (48-27), New York Times/Siena (40-20), Cygnal (44-24), co/efficient (43-20) and Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research (40-20) surveys, and also leads the two-candidate matchups against Wilson, 54-46 and 52-48. Three Republicans splitting the first-round vote under ranked-choice voting, plus Kreiss-Tomkins's field-leading fundraising, give Democrats a meaningful but not decisive edge in a state that leans Republican.","takeaway":"Kreiss-Tomkins is favored to flip Alaska's open governorship for Democrats, buoyed by a consistent polling lead and a three-way Republican split under ranked-choice voting.","key_reasons":["Kreiss-Tomkins leads every recent public poll of the four-way field and both two-candidate matchups against Wilson, including 54-46 (Alaska Survey Research) and 52-48 (New York Times/Siena).","Three Republicans divide the conservative vote under ranked-choice voting, so the Democrat can win even though the combined Republican first-round share is larger if GOP rankings do not consolidate.","Kreiss-Tomkins raised roughly $2.17M, the largest total in the field, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 78%, reinforcing the polling edge."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Republican voters consolidate behind Wilson through ranked-choice rankings and whether Alaska's Republican lean means the polls understate the GOP, so a Republican hold remains a live 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Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alaska's At-Large Congressional District","state":"Alaska","contest_stage":"top_four_rcv","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T17:04:35.359519+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim McDermott","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_McDermott.jpg"},{"name":"Nick Begich III","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Nick_Begich_III_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Bill Hill","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bill_Hill_20260401_092700.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Hafner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EricHafner2024.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nick Begich III","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8299,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.01,"Independent":0.16,"Libertarian":0.0001,"Republican":0.8299},"margin_estimate":6,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III leads independent Bill Hill in the most recent surveys, including NYT/Siena (47-35 first choice; 53-47 simulated final round) and The Bullfinch Group (44.2-36.6; 50.3-46.5), and he pairs that lead with incumbency, a large fundraising advantage and a Republican-leaning state backdrop. Hill's consolidation of Democratic support and a $2.2M+ supportive super PAC keep the ranked-choice final round close, but not close enough to displace the incumbent.","takeaway":"Begich is favored to hold Alaska's at-large seat, though ranked-choice transfers keep the final round competitive.","key_reasons":["Begich leads in both first-choice and simulated final-round polling, including NYT/Siena (53-47) and The Bullfinch Group (50.3-46.5), with AARP (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research) also showing him ahead 45-31.","Incumbency, a $5.47M fundraising haul with $3.12M cash on hand, and President Trump's endorsement in a Republican-leaning state.","Hill's Democratic consolidation and $2.2M+ in supportive super PAC spending keep the ranked-choice final round competitive, capping Begich's margin."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on ranked-choice transfers: the two most recent final-round simulations differ (53-47 vs 50.3-46.5), and Hill's outside support and Democratic consolidation could narrow the gap further, so the outcome falls short of a lock.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T17:04:30.416160Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/04/polls/times-siena-alaska-poll-toplines.html","https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/68d1c32ec01e1d1f6a86e801/6abd40f2f3810a4e535a8aa6_Alaska_Topline-Independent_Leadership_Council.pdf","https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2026-09-17-new-aarp-alaska-poll-older-voters-will-be-influential-in-u-s-senate-gubernatorial-and-congressional-races/","https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/8/17/as-alaskas-affordability-crisis-deepens-peltola-leads-in-senate-race","https://thealaskacurrent.com/2026/08/12/exclusive-poll-shows-independent-bill-hill-has-a-real-shot-at-winning-alaskas-us-house-seat/","https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/alaska","https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/08/31/in-alaskas-u-s-house-race-two-of-the-final-candidates-dont-live-in-alaska-and-one-is-in-prison/","https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_McDermott_(Alaska)","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AK","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2AK01083/","https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-02-02/race-for-cash-is-well-underway-for-alaskas-u-s-senate-and-house-campaigns","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/americans-for-prosperity/summary?id=D000024046&topnumcycle=2024","https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/07/16/election-2026-incumbent-begich-again-leads-us-house-race-campaign-earnings/?outputType=amp","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AK01092/","https://insideelections.com/untangling-the-democratic-dark-money-web-funding-independent-candidates/","https://thealaskacurrent.com/2026/04/02/independent-congressional-candidate-bill-hill-reports-raising-780000-since-launch/","https://www.givegreen.com/candidates/bill-hill","https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/2026-07-17/matt-schultz-suspends-his-campaign-for-u-s-house-endorses-bill-hill","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AK00164/","https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/08/15/shadowy-group-looks-to-boost-new-york-felon-in-alaskas-us-house-race/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.83,"Independent":0.16,"Democratic":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Independent":0.13,"Democratic":0.01,"Libertarian":0},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.74,"Independent":0.25,"Democratic":0.01,"Libertarian":0},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"ak-senate-2026","title":"2026 Alaska U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Alaska","state":"Alaska","contest_stage":"top_four_rcv","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:47.320241+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Daniel S. 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Doug Jones's recent fundraising momentum and his history as a statewide winner keep the race from being entirely foregone, but they have not yet shown up as a narrowing in the polling.","takeaway":"Tuberville is a clear favorite in deep-red Alabama, leading recent polling by double digits with a large cash advantage.","key_reasons":["Alabama is a deeply Republican state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998, and Tuberville defeated Jones by more than 20 points in their 2020 Senate matchup.","The most recent general-election survey (Napolitan News Service, Sept. 25, n=800) shows Tuberville ahead 50% to 37%, a double-digit lead consistent with the state's partisan lean.","Tuberville holds a large cash-on-hand advantage and President Trump's endorsement, and prediction markets price a Republican win near 91%."],"uncertainty":"Only one recent general-election poll is available and the market pricing is from mid-September, so the race turns on whether Jones's stronger recent fundraising translates into a closer contest than the current polling and structural Republican lean suggest.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T11:03:42.870173Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/01/alabama-governor-poll-who-is-leading-between-tuberville-and-doug-jones/92039606007/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAL-26-R","https://www.wbrc.com/2026/05/05/alabama-gop-primary-voters-optimistic-state-direction-tuberville-dominates-governors-race/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAL-26-D","https://www.alcampaignfinance.com/race/governor","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/06/jones-outraises-tuberville-in-governors-race-tuberville-retains-major-financial-edge/","https://www.alreporter.com/2026/06/03/doug-jones-sees-fundraising-bump-after-winning-democratic-nomination-for-governor/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0AL00156/","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-information/2026"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYAL-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYAL-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Alabama","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0935,"yes_bid":0.089,"yes_ask":0.098,"last_price":0.098,"volume":92547.25,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:50.851007Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAL-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYAL-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYAL-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Alabama","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9115,"yes_bid":0.91,"yes_ask":0.913,"last_price":0.91,"volume":39753.36,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:51.959173Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAL-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Democratic":0.065,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.89,"Democratic":0.1,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"al-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 1st Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T08:54:19.854346+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jerry Carl","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/Rep._Jerry_Carl_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Clyde W. 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Democrat Clyde Jones, a first-time candidate with no reported fundraising, faces a steep partisan headwind in this reliably red seat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T08:54:04.704189Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.al.com/politics/2026/04/this-alabama-congressional-election-is-becoming-one-of-2026s-most-heated-races-poll-finds.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0AL01055/","https://aldailynews.com/carl-figures-lead-fundraising-in-south-alabama-congressional-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/AL/01/2026/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"al-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T08:05:12.794492+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Shomari Figures","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Shomari_Figures.png"},{"name":"Rhett Marques","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RhettAL.jfif"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rhett Marques","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.62,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.38,"Republican":0.62},"margin_estimate":3,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 2nd District no longer includes Mobile and is estimated to lean Republican, giving state Rep. 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Three public polls — Tulchin Research, the DCCC, and Impact Research — show a tied or one-point race, and Figures' incumbency and roughly $663,000 in cash on hand keep the contest genuinely competitive.","takeaway":"Republicans are narrowly favored to flip Alabama's 2nd District, though a tied public polling picture keeps the race close.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district, which no longer includes Mobile, is estimated to lean Republican — a structural headwind for the Democratic incumbent.","The three public polls in the record show a tied or one-point race: Tulchin Research 47-47, the DCCC 46-46, and Impact Research 45-44 Marques.","Figures' incumbency and roughly $663,000 war chest, alongside Marques' comparable fundraising and prominent endorsements, cap the Republican advantage."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Figures' incumbency and fundraising edge can overcome the district's Republican lean, with only three public polls — all showing a tied or one-point race — and no prediction-market signal available.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T08:05:09.024041Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-shomari-figures-tied-with-rhett-marques-in-al-02","https://www.al.com/news/2026/08/new-poll-shows-shomari-figures-rhett-marques-tied-in-key-alabama-congressional-race.html","https://aldailynews.com/democratic-poll-shows-potential-tight-race-in-al-2/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/alabama-us-house-2-polls-2026.html","https://aldailynews.com/alabamas-congressional-incumbents-have-wide-fundraising-leads/","https://aldailynews.com/carl-figures-lead-fundraising-in-south-alabama-congressional-races/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/alabama/federal/alabama-district-02/industries?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AL02170/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/shomari-c-figures/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1325395","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AL01086/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rhett-marques/donors","https://aldailynews.com/katie-britt-contributes-10000-maximum-to-rhett-marques-congressional-campaign/","https://www.alreporter.com/2025/10/16/rhett-marques-announces-campaign-raised-more-than-500000-in-less-than-two-months/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.38,"Republican":0.62},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.32,"Republican":0.68},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.42,"Republican":0.58},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"al-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T07:16:42.302658+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Rogers","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Mike_Rogers_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Lee McInnis","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lee_McInnis_20251009_063753.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Rogers","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Alabama's 3rd District is heavily Republican (R+23 PVI) and has not elected a Democrat since 2002, with 12-term incumbent and Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers facing a Democratic challenger with minimal fundraising (~$60,800 raised vs. Rogers's ~$2.13M). The structural and financial advantages make a Republican hold overwhelming, though the absence of district-level polling tempers confidence in the exact margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T07:16:17.453412Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2AL03032/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AL03199/","https://www.notus.org/defense/military-contractors-campaign-contributions-congress","https://aldailynews.com/alabamas-congressional-incumbents-have-wide-fundraising-leads/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-al-3/compare/lee-mcinnis-vs-mike-rogers","https://leemcinnis4alabama.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"al-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 4th Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T06:16:11.913343+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Robert B. 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No public polling exists, but the district's deep partisan lean and long incumbency make an upset highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T06:15:32.857822Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AL04098/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AL05228/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00003028","https://aldailynews.com/alabamas-congressional-incumbents-have-wide-fundraising-leads/","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/07/06/spending-in-alabama-primary-elections-exceeds-40-million/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/robert-aderholt/donors","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Aderholt+Supports+Sunshine+Protection+Act%2C+Cites+Student+Safety+Concerns","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/amanda-pusczek/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"al-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 5th Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T08:56:52.944606+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dale Strong","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Dale_Strong_official_House_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Andrew Sneed","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrew_Sneed_2025.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dale Strong","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Dale Strong holds an overwhelming structural edge in a heavily Republican district (R+15 lean) with no public polling showing any competitive signal. 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With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's strong Republican lean and Palmer's incumbency, making a Democratic upset highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T21:51:49.433742Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AL06098/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/gary-palmer/donors","https://www.alreporter.com/2024/10/24/who-donates-to-alabamas-incumbents-mostly-pacs/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/gary-palmer/summary","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/11/u-s-rep-gary-palmer-gets-gop-nod-in-alabama-6th-congressional-district/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-al-6/general"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"al-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Alabama's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Alabama's 7th Congressional District","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:28:23.868279+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Terri Sewell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Terri_Sewell.jpg"},{"name":"Ammie Akin","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://abc3340.com/resources/media2/16x9/1264/1174/0x305/80/96b8c193-01a7-4c3b-b66c-49cf985b3a12-Ammie_Akin_Republican.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Terri Sewell","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Alabama's 7th District is a heavily Democratic, majority-Black seat that eight-term incumbent Terri Sewell has carried by roughly 35-45 points in every election since 2010. Republican nominee Ammie Akin won the August 11 special primary but has raised only ~$150K against Sewell's ~$1.96M in a district whose structural lean makes the outcome a near-certainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T15:00:04.084804Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/11/ammie-akin-wins-republican-nomination-in-alabamas-7th-congressional-district/","https://www.wbhm.org/local-news/2026-08-11/2026-alabama-special-congressional-primary-results","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AL","https://ballotpedia.org/Ammie_Akin","https://1819news.com/news/item/birminghams-ammie-akin-launches-congressional-campaign-to-challenge-democrat-incumbent-terri-sewell"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"al-senate-2026","title":"2026 Alabama U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Alabama","state":"Alabama","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T04:02:48.535489+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Barry Moore","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Rep._Barry_Moore_official_photo.jpg/500px-Rep._Barry_Moore_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Everett Wess","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Everett_Wess_20260429_110148.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Barry Moore","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":24,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Alabama's strong Republican lean, Moore's Trump endorsement and roughly $3.8M campaign plus heavy outside support, and a 47-32 general-election poll lead over Everett Wess all point to a lopsided Republican win. 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With no public polling, the forecast rests on district fundamentals and incumbency, which point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-22T18:30:09.974073Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/arkansas-1/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0AR01083/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rick-crawford/donors","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AR","https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2026/07/16/shoffner-leads-all-arkansas-congressional-candidates-in-second-quarter-fundraising","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/rick-crawford/us_congress/summary?mpid=1191826","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/rick-crawford/us_congress/pacs?mpid=1191826","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/rick-crawford/industries?cid=N00030770&cycle=2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AR01155/","https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/apr/16/arkansas-house-members-report-strong-campaign/","https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2026/07/16/shoffner-leads-arkansas-congressional-candidates-in-second-quarter-fundraising","https://arkansasadvocate.com/briefs/libertarian-party-of-arkansas-nominates-2026-general-election-candidates/","http://mhobserver.com/lakeview-economist-enters-district-1-congressional-race-as-libertarian/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ar-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Arkansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:06:07.846199+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"French Hill","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/French_Hill_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Jones","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris-Jones.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.54,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.46,"Republican":0.54},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"low","rationale":"Republican incumbent French Hill carries structural advantages — a Republican-leaning district, his House Financial Services chairmanship, and a wide fundraising edge — while the two 2026 surveys show Democrat Chris Jones ahead by 3-4 points. That mix leaves the race a true toss-up, with Republicans only narrowly favored.","takeaway":"A genuine toss-up: Jones leads recent polling, but Hill's incumbency, committee chairmanship and fundraising keep Republicans narrowly favored.","key_reasons":["Two 2026 surveys put Chris Jones ahead by 3-4 points, including the Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College likely-voter poll (n=1,112, August 2026) at 48-44 and the 2040 Strategy Group survey (n=660, May 2026) at 46-43.","Hill's incumbency since 2015, his chairmanship of the House Financial Services Committee, and a large money advantage (about $4.42 million raised this cycle and $2.97 million cash on hand, versus roughly $375,000 for Jones in the second quarter) in a Republican-leaning district.","National Democratic investment — the DCCC added the district to its target list in August and to its Red to Blue program on October 5 — makes a competitive result credible despite the district's lean."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Hill's incumbency, district lean and cash advantage outweigh Jones's 3-4 point leads in the two 2026 surveys, with polling sparse and one of those surveys released by the Jones campaign.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T16:06:03.434525Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-similar-trends-in-cd2-show-tight-race-between-hill-jones/","https://chrisjonesforcongress.com/democrat-chris-jones-leads-46-43-among-likely-voters-in-arkansas-02/","https://chrisjonesforcongress.com/election-2026-polls-have-2nd-congressional-district-race-as-a-toss-up/","https://ballotpedia.org/Arkansas%27_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AR02141/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/french-hill/us_congress/summary?mpid=1113189","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/AR/2","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/stephens-inc/C00166553/expenditures/2020","https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2q-2026-senate-and","https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/apr/16/arkansas-house-members-report-strong-campaign/","https://arkansasadvocate.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Chris-Jones-statement-of-candidacy.pdf","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ar-2/compare/chris-jones-vs-french-hill","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AR02286/","https://www.capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_ef_filer.aspx?&sFECID=C00912899&sRptNum=1943896&sCycle=2026"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.45},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.7,"Democratic":0.3},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.54,"Democratic":0.46},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.25}},{"id":"ar-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Arkansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-22T19:00:25.238508+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Steve Womack","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_Womack.jpg"},{"name":"Robb Ryerse","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/782cb5_4eb9041b78e84b8489fb807525f23ae9~mv2.jpg"},{"name":"Bobby Wilson","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BobbyWilson2024.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Steve Womack","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.97,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Steve Womack holds an overwhelming advantage in this solidly Republican northwest Arkansas district, reinforced by ~$2.4M cash on hand versus roughly $6K for Democrat Robb Ryerse and a Libertarian challenger who drew only ~4.4% in 2024. No polling exists here, but the district's partisan context and the fundraising and incumbency gaps make a competitive outcome highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-22T18:27:27.471151Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2026/07/16/shoffner-leads-all-arkansas-congressional-candidates-in-second-quarter-fundraising","https://ballotpedia.org/Arkansas%27_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.washingtoncountyar.gov/government/departments-a-e/election-commission/november-3-2026-general-election-information","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=bobby+wilson&state=AR&cycle=2026","https://illinoiselectiondata.com/supersystem/subscribers/latestfilingsFEC.php?Limit=500","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AR03128/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ar-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Arkansas's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arkansas' 4th Congressional District","state":"Arkansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-22T18:27:01.143847+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bruce Westerman","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bruce_Westerman_official_congressional_photo.jpg"},{"name":"James Russell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://img1.wsimg.com/isteam/ip/c283d1c3-3c3d-49d6-baf9-03d72d39c58b/Base%201%20300dpi.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bruce Westerman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Westerman is a six-term Republican incumbent in a safely Republican district with roughly $4.7 million cash on hand versus essentially no reported funds for Russell, who also resides outside the district. With no public polling, every available structural measure points to an uncompetitive race.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-22T18:10:17.711710Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Arkansas'_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AR04048/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/arkansas-4/","https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jul/01/fourth-congressional-district-democratic/","https://www.hotsr.com/news/2026/jun/28/bruce-westerman-seeks-7th-congressional-term-touts/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/bruce-westerman/us_congress/summary?mpid=1043699","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/bruce-westerman/us_congress/industries?mpid=1043699","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/bruce-westerman/us_congress/organizations?cycle=2026&mpid=1043699","https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/firms/summary?id=D000035346","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AR04084/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ar-senate-2026","title":"2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Arkansas","state":"Arkansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-05T16:41:01.041849+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Cotton","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Cotton.jpg"},{"name":"Hallie Shoffner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/68542e7bc40f7d68b7e0e3aa/64e7f986-9f04-4cfa-901d-13c439cd2e1a/Hallie+%2899%29.jpg"},{"name":"Jeff Wadlin","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jeff_Wadlin_20260310_095736.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom Cotton","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.095,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.9},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Two-term Republican incumbent Tom Cotton is favored in a state where Republicans hold every statewide office and both Senate seats, and he holds a large fundraising and advertising advantage over Democrat Hallie Shoffner. The August polling is inconsistent — one survey shows Cotton up 16 points, another shows a near-even race — but the fundamentals and market pricing point to a comfortable Cotton win.","takeaway":"Cotton is clearly favored for a third term in solidly Republican Arkansas, though one August poll suggests the race may be closer than the fundamentals imply.","key_reasons":["Arkansas is a deeply Republican state where the GOP holds both Senate seats and every statewide office, giving two-term incumbent Tom Cotton a large structural advantage.","Cotton holds a commanding fundraising and advertising edge over Hallie Shoffner, and allied groups are outspending her heavily.","The most recent public polling is split — one survey shows Cotton up 16 points while another shows a near-even race — but prediction markets price Republicans near 93%."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Cotton's incumbency, deep financial edge, and Arkansas's Republican lean outweigh the one August survey showing Shoffner narrowly ahead, with no newer polling available since mid-August.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-05T16:40:36.223289Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://jlpartners.com/arkansas-senate-likely-voter-polling","https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-tight-race-for-us-senate-between-cotton-shoffner/","https://magnoliareporter.com/news_and_business/opinion/article_7814b75f-ee48-43b1-afad-2f3e35bfae4c.html","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEAR-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEAR-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4AR00103/","https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2026/jul/16/cotton-still-tops-total-campaign-funds-in-senate/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=13607871&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-cotton/us_congress/organizations?mpid=1140206","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/hallie-shoffner/donors","https://www.magnoliabannernews.com/news/2026/feb/04/cotton-exceeds-96-million-in-campaign-coffers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6AR00199/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00905471/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=ARS1","https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2026/07/16/shoffner-leads-all-arkansas-congressional-candidates-in-second-quarter-fundraising","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6AR00223/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.jeffwadlin.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEAR-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEAR-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.07050000000000001,"yes_bid":0.065,"yes_ask":0.076,"last_price":0.077,"volume":144642.55,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:39.479364Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEAR-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEAR-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEAR-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9325000000000001,"yes_bid":0.93,"yes_ask":0.935,"last_price":0.93,"volume":45066.76,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:40.521419Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEAR-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.095,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"az-01-house-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 1st Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:06:58.771788+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Amish Shah","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Amish_Shah_by_Gage_Skidmore_2.jpg"},{"name":"Jay Feely","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JayFeely.jpg"},{"name":"Monica Alponte","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MonicaAlponte2026_2026-05-26_174823.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Amish Shah","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7063,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7063,"Libertarian":0.02,"Republican":0.2737},"margin_estimate":3.2,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Lean Democratic and gives Amish Shah (Democratic) a 71% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 3 points. The estimate draws on 1 public poll with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Amish Shah (Democratic) is favored, with a 71% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Lean Democratic (Amish Shah (Democratic): 71% chance of winning).","Polling: 1 head-to-head poll of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 2 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:48.674091Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/10/07/independents-to-be-a-deciding-factor-in-cd1-race/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ1-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/joint-fundraising-committees-jfcs/amish-shah-victory-fund/C00886630/2024/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/joint-fundraising-committees-jfcs/amish-shah-victory-fund/C00886630/2024/industries","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/AZ/1","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ01194/","https://www.foxnews.com/sports/roger-goodell-notable-sports-figures-donating-ex-nfl-kicker-jay-feely-trump-endorsed-house-bid","https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/jay-feely-amish-shah-projected-cd-1-winners","https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/06/17/experts-question-finances-of-group-behind-attacks-on-jay-feely/90573589007/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ05190/","https://www.opencampaign.com/united-states-elections/3171/2026-u.s.-house-elections/arizona/district-1"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.775,"yes_bid":0.77,"yes_ask":0.78,"last_price":0.77,"volume":35391.49,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T20:57:12.631536Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for AZ-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.225,"yes_bid":0.22,"yes_ask":0.23,"last_price":0.24,"volume":68867.13,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T20:57:14.502115Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.74,"Republican":0.24,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Republican":0.31,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"az-06-house-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 6th Congressional District, United States","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T18:03:27.632454+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Juan Ciscomani","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Juan-Ciscomani.PNG"},{"name":"JoAnna Mendoza","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JoAnna_Mendoza.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Swing","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PXL-20260504-192424337_PORTRAIT_ORIGINAL_2-_1__20260504_215813_21683.jpg"},{"name":"Jereme Peters","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.azvoterguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Photo_202603061638133813.png"},{"name":"Michael Dorland","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/michaeldorland_20260831_060429_53256_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"JoAnna Mendoza","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6169,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6169,"Green":0.005,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.3731},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Three head-to-head surveys put JoAnna Mendoza narrowly ahead — Normington, Petts & Associates (June 11, Mendoza 47-45), Ragnar Research Partners (March 14, 47-44) and Public Policy Polling (Oct. 15, 2025, 42-41) — and she has out-raised incumbent Juan Ciscomani ($7.35M to $6.17M) on heavily small-dollar money. Ciscomani's incumbency, the district's toss-up history, and a campaign centered on healthcare, SNAP/AHCCCS and affordability keep the margin small.","takeaway":"Mendoza holds a narrow edge in a toss-up district, with Ciscomani's incumbency keeping the race close.","key_reasons":["Three recorded head-to-head polls show Mendoza ahead by 1 to 3 points, including the most recent June survey at 47-45.","Mendoza out-raised the incumbent, $7.35M to $6.17M through July 1, 2026, with $5.92M from individual donors including $2.8M in small-dollar contributions.","The seat is a nationally competitive toss-up where healthcare, rural hospitals and SNAP/AHCCCS funding are central, and Ciscomani's two-term incumbency is the main counterweight."],"uncertainty":"No verifiable AZ-06 poll has been released since mid-June, and the prediction-market prices favoring Democrats date to mid-September, so the narrow lead rests on limited and somewhat dated evidence in a district that has swung between the parties.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T18:03:22.315603Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/new-hmp-poll-joanna-mendoza-leads-juan-ciscomani-in-az-06","https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/042926_cd6_poll/","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000199-fd60-dc69-abd9-fff2ed910000","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ6-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ6-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2AZ02360/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/juan-ciscomani/summary","https://yourreprecord.org/members/ciscomani-juan-az-6/","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/mostcorrupt2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ06099/","https://coppercourier.com/news/politics/mendoza-finances-fact-check/","https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/070826_congress_fundraising/","https://emilyslist.org/candidate/joanna-mendoza/","https://www.boldpac.com/icymi-joanna-mendoza-leads-juan-ciscomani-in-new-polldays-after-outraising-him","https://news.azpm.org/s/103139-democratic-challenger-far-outraised-ciscomani-in-early-2026/","https://www.notus.org/2026-election/juan-ciscomani-challenger-joanna-mendoza","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/03/democratic-house-challenger-joanna-mendoza-2026-fundraising-00856581","https://ballotpedia.org/Gary_Swing","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AZ","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ06214/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jereme-peters","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/jereme-peters"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ6-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ6-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.845,"yes_bid":0.84,"yes_ask":0.85,"last_price":0.84,"volume":9346.61,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:06:44.361167Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ6-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ6-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ6-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.16,"yes_bid":0.15,"yes_ask":0.17,"last_price":0.17,"volume":15951.44,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:06:46.605888Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ6-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.27,"Green":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.375,"Green":0.002,"Libertarian":0.002,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.41,"Green":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.15}},{"id":"az-governor-2026","title":"2026 Arizona Governor Election","office":"Governor","jurisdiction":"Arizona","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-06T21:05:52.637273+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Katie Hobbs","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Katie-Hobbs.PNG"},{"name":"Andy Biggs","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy_Biggs__official_portrait__115th_Congress-7_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"Risa Lombardo","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Teri Hourihan","party":"No Labels","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Teri_Hourihan_20260130_040320.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Katie Hobbs","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Green":0.005,"No Labels":0.005,"Republican":0.13},"margin_estimate":11,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hobbs has led every recent public survey, including a 47%-34% Arizona State University poll and double-digit HighGround and Noble Predictive Insights results, with a strong edge among independents. Her incumbency and large fundraising advantage over Biggs reinforce the Democratic position, though Arizona's recent Republican presidential lean keeps a GOP path open.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs holds a clear, double-digit lead over Republican Andy Biggs in a purple state that remains competitive.","key_reasons":["Hobbs leads by double digits in the most recent surveys, including the 1,300-sample Arizona State University poll at 47%-34% and HighGround at 50%-34%.","Hobbs is the incumbent with roughly $17 million raised and $7.2 million cash on hand, far outpacing Biggs's $2.8 million cycle total.","Arizona is a purple state that Trump carried in 2024, and Biggs retains a meaningful upset path if late polling error or turnout shifts break Republican."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Hobbs's consistent double-digit polling lead and fundraising edge hold against Arizona's Republican-leaning 2024 presidential backdrop and the possibility of late polling error; minor-party support appears small but could shift margins.","based_on_poll_count":10,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T21:05:46.831276Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/arizona","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/arizona/hobbs-vs-biggs","https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/katie-hobbs-leads-andy-biggs-in-the-grand-canyon-state","https://azhighground.com/hobbs-builds-double-digit-lead-in-arizona/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAZ-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAZ-26-R","https://azmirror.com/briefs/katie-hobbs-sitting-on-7-2m-war-chest-outraising-both-gop-challengers-combined-six-to-one/","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/katie-marie-hobbs/industries?cycle=2024&id=6507388&recs=100","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6507388","https://pro.stateaffairs.com/az/yellow-sheet/governor/hobbs-campaign-record-fundraising","https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2025/10/16/gubernatorial-candidates-rake-in-millions-in-donations-ahead-of-2026/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/andy-biggs/us_congress/organizations?mpid=1114383","https://pro.stateaffairs.com/az/yellow-sheet/elections/andy-biggs-2026-fundraising","https://www.transparencyusa.org/az","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ05083/","https://azmirror.com/2026/07/13/risa-lombardo-mystery-company-a-maga-activist-and-1-1m-sham-green-party-candidacy/","https://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/072726_sham_candidates/sham-green-party-candidates-tied-gop-machine-as-they-funnel-cash-mystery-company/","https://www.azcleanelections.gov/arizona-elections/voter-education-guide/primary-text-governor","https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/23/arizona-governor-2026-no-labels-teri-hourihan-hugh-lytle/91011504007/","https://teriann4azgov.org/","https://www.facebook.com/arizonasfamily/posts/how-did-this-local-candidate-with-only-30k-beat-an-opponent-who-spent-around-1m-/1523863966440082/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYAZ-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYAZ-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.895,"yes_bid":0.89,"yes_ask":0.9,"last_price":0.89,"volume":348640.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:58.241173Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAZ-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYAZ-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYAZ-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.11499999999999999,"yes_bid":0.11,"yes_ask":0.12,"last_price":0.12,"volume":285838.23,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:59.244889Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYAZ-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.89,"Republican":0.11},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Republican":0.13,"Green":0.005,"No Labels":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17,"Green":0.005,"No Labels":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"az-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:07:15.268154+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Eli Crane","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EliCrane.png"},{"name":"Jonathan Nez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jonathan_Nez.jpg"},{"name":"Curtis Goodwin","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Screenshot-20260625-122137-Gallery_20260625_192205_30474_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Eli Crane","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.67,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.32,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.67},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Crane carries the advantages of incumbency, a roughly nine-point win in the 2024 rematch, and a large fundraising edge (about $9.5M to $3.5M, mostly small-dollar), and the available polling tilts his way on balance. Nez's record as a former Navajo Nation president and the district's 20% Native population keep the contest competitive, but the district's Republican lean and market pricing leave Crane favored.","takeaway":"Crane is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though Nez's strong tribal profile keeps the race closer than the district's fundamentals alone suggest.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and district history: Crane won the 2024 rematch by about nine points in a Republican-leaning district covering Flagstaff, Prescott and much of the Navajo Nation.","Fundraising: Crane reported roughly $9.5M raised this cycle versus about $3.5M for Nez, with $8M of Crane's total from small-dollar donors under $200.","Polling is mixed but nets to a modest Crane lead: GBAO showed Crane 46-44 (Aug 27) and 44-41 (Jun 15), Peak Insights showed Crane 53-42 (Aug 20), while Noble Predictive Insights showed Nez 38-37 with Goodwin at 7 (Jul 15); Kalshi prices a Republican win near 0.69."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse and mixed — a two-point Crane lead in the Aug 27 GBAO survey versus an 11-point lead in the Aug 20 Peak Insights survey — and the market pricing dates to mid-September, so a Democratic-leaning national environment or late movement among the district's tribal voters could tighten the race.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:07:09.534451Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/arizona-us-house-2-polls-2026.html","https://azfreenews.com/2026/08/new-poll-shows-eli-crane-with-double-digit-lead-over-jonathan-nez-in-cd2-rematch/","https://navajotimes.com/rezpolitics/election-2026/pac-poll-gives-nez-slight-edge-over-crane-in-arizona-congressional-rematch/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ2-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ2-26-D","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AZ","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2AZ01354/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/eli-crane/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/eli-crane/summary","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/mostcorrupt2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/AZ/2","https://tucson.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/article_ee74996f-820a-4509-8036-d4f19df11a46.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ02184/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jonathan-nez/donors","https://dccc.org/jonathan-nez-raises-1-million-in-q1-to-take-on-eli-crane-in-az-02/","https://ballotpedia.org/Curtis_Goodwin"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ2-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ2-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.315,"yes_bid":0.31,"yes_ask":0.32,"last_price":0.32,"volume":34834.9,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T20:57:17.764219Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ2-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEAZ2-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEAZ2-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for AZ-2?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.685,"yes_bid":0.68,"yes_ask":0.69,"last_price":0.69,"volume":14332.78,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T20:57:19.982481Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEAZ2-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.67,"Democratic":0.32,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.68,"Democratic":0.31,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.67,"Democratic":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"az-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T13:57:11.985192+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Yassamin Ansari","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Yassamin_Ansari.jpg"},{"name":"David Redkey","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Redkey_20250806_051620.jpg"},{"name":"Alan Aversa","party":"No Labels","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AlanAversa2.jpg"},{"name":"Jacob Parkman","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Yassamin Ansari","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"This is a heavily Democratic Phoenix district (D+22) where incumbent Rep. Yassamin Ansari won the 2024 general election with roughly 71% of the vote and faces a fragmented field of Green, No Labels, and GOP write-in challengers with no credentialed major-party opponent. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's deep partisan lean, incumbency, and the absence of a credible Republican nominee.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T13:56:57.487030Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ03109/","https://cawp.rutgers.edu/research/cawp-women-money-and-politics-series/money-watch-2026/national","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Ansari+Seeks+Answers+Over+Trump+Plane+Switch+During+NATO+Summit+Departure","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ01322/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AZ","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ03174/","https://ballotpedia.org/Jacob_Parkman"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"az-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 4th Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T03:16:25.040432+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Greg Stanton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg-Stanton.PNG"},{"name":"Zuhdi Jasser","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ZuhdiJasser2024.png"},{"name":"Tisha Benoit","party":"No Labels Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tisha_Benoit_2026-07-07_234145.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Greg Stanton","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a strongly Democratic suburban Phoenix district with high name recognition, a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage, and a weak general-election field of a Republican physician and a No Labels candidate. The district's partisan lean makes Stanton a heavy favorite despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T03:16:02.415486Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8AZ09040/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ04115/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/greg-stanton/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1165037&type=P","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/greg-stanton","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/zuhdi-jasser/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/zuhdi-jasser","https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(July_21_No_Labels_Party_primary)","https://tishabenoit.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"az-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 5th Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:35:01.109678+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Lamb","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MarkLamb23.png"},{"name":"Elizabeth Lee","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Elizabeth_Lee_2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Lamb","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.06,"Republican":0.94},"margin_estimate":14.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"This open East Valley seat is strongly Republican territory — the district backed Donald Trump by roughly 16 to 20 points in 2024 — and Republican nominee Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff with President Trump's endorsement, has raised about $1.2 million against roughly $153,000 for Democrat Elizabeth Lee. No independent general-election polling exists, and the only survey signal is Lee's own internal poll showing her down three to five points, which is consistent with a comfortable but not landslide Republican win.","takeaway":"Republicans are strongly favored to win this open East Valley seat, with Mark Lamb's funding and district lean outweighing a closer internal poll.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Republican lean — Trump carried it by roughly 16 to 20 points in 2024 — gives the GOP a large structural advantage in an open-seat race.","Lamb holds a roughly 8-to-1 fundraising edge ($1.2M vs. $153K) plus President Trump's endorsement and far higher name recognition as a former county sheriff, while Lee is a first-time candidate.","The only available survey is Lee's campaign-released internal poll showing a three-to-five-point deficit, which points to a Republican win rather than a competitive tossup."],"uncertainty":"With no independent public polling, the race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Lamb's resource advantage hold up against a campaign-released internal poll showing a single-digit contest.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:34:57.635518Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ05265/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00924084/","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/16/mark-lamb-arizona-trump-scandals-01000409","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/AZ/5","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mark-lamb","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ05240/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/elizabeth-lee/donors","https://www.yourvalley.net/stories/lee-outraised-competitors-in-2nd-quarter-overall-in-east-valleys-cd5,707775"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"az-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 7th Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T21:03:16.975211+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adelita Grijalva","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Congresswoman_Adelita_Grijalva_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Daniel Butierez Sr.","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DanielButierez2023.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adelita Grijalva","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Adelita Grijalva combines a strongly Democratic-leaning border-to-Tucson district with incumbency, a roughly 10-to-1 fundraising edge, and a September 2025 special-election win over the same opponent by about 38 points. The only public poll found shows a two-point race, but it is a single May survey that runs against the district's fundamentals and the special-election result.","takeaway":"Grijalva is heavily favored to hold this strongly Democratic district against a repeat, lightly funded challenger.","key_reasons":["Grijalva won the September 2025 special election for this seat with roughly 69% against the same opponent, in a district that leans heavily Democratic.","Grijalva holds a roughly 10-to-1 money advantage ($2.29M vs. $224K through July 1, 2026), while Butierez's campaign is largely self-financed and he is on his third consecutive run against a Grijalva.","The lone public poll, a May 21, 2026 survey showing Grijalva 41% to Butierez 39%, is stale and inconsistent with the district's partisan baseline and the 2025 special-election margin."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the single May poll's two-point reading reflects any genuine erosion or is simply an outlier, since no other public polling exists and the survey predates the fall campaign.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T21:03:08.764455Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/arizona-7/","https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ07121/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/adelita-grijalva/summary","https://news.azpm.org/s/101323-small-donors-big-pacs-and-out-of-state-money-shape-arizonas-7th-congressional-district-race/","https://www.kjzz.org/elections/2025-07-07/congressional-district-7-race-democrats-grijalva-hernandez-lead-the-pack-in-fundraising","https://www.yourvalley.net/stories/grijalva-and-butierez-release-campaign-finance-reports-for-cd7,685099","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ07134/","https://www.yourvalley.net/litchfield-park-independent/stories/grijalva-and-butierez-release-campaign-finance-reports-for-cd7,685099","https://tucsonagenda.substack.com/p/the-coming-avalanche"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"az-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 8th Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T11:09:44.564920+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Abraham Hamadeh","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/88/Abraham_Hamadeh.jpg/250px-Abraham_Hamadeh.jpg"},{"name":"Bernadette Greene Placentia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BernadetteGreenePlacentia2025.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Abraham Hamadeh","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.06,"Republican":0.94},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Arizona's 8th is a Republican-leaning suburban Phoenix seat where incumbent Abraham Hamadeh holds a wide fundraising advantage over first-time Democratic nominee Bernadette Greene Placentia. With no public general-election polling, the fundamentals — incumbency, money, and the district's partisan tilt — point to a comfortable Republican hold.","takeaway":"Republicans are strongly favored to hold Arizona's 8th District, where incumbent Abraham Hamadeh's funding edge and the seat's GOP lean dominate the race.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican lean (roughly R+8) and its recent voting history give the GOP nominee a large structural advantage in this suburban Phoenix seat.","Hamadeh is the incumbent, advanced unopposed in the July 21 primary, and has raised roughly $1.21M with about $384K cash on hand, versus about $209K raised and $190K on hand for Greene Placentia.","No public general-election polling shows the race as competitive, and the Democratic nominee is a first-time candidate relying on small-dollar grassroots funding."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency, and the lopsided fundraising gap; a large national swing toward Democrats is the main path to an upset.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T11:09:40.691689Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ08108/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/article_ae6b4f37-a0e4-415e-9dbd-745ae9ad750e.html","https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/cd8-dem-debate-abe-hamadeh","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/AZ/8","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4AZ08082/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"az-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Arizona's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Arizona's 9th Congressional District","state":"Arizona","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-03T00:28:15.116515+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Paul Gosar","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Paul_Gosar.jpg"},{"name":"Danielle Sterbinsky","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DanielleSterbinsky2025.jpeg"},{"name":"William Perry","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/A-_1__20260722_142258_47116_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Paul Gosar","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Gosar is a well-entrenched nine-term incumbent in a heavily Republican rural district that backed him and Trump by more than 30 points in 2024, and he holds a large campaign finance advantage over Democratic challenger Sterbinsky. With no public polling, district fundamentals, incumbency, and finance signals point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-03T00:03:57.407773Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481796","https://azfreenews.com/2026/07/gosar-holds-nearly-278000-cash-advantage-over-democratic-challenger/","https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AZ","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0AZ01259/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00030771","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/paul-gosar/donors","https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/article_22de2200-0f42-43d6-9950-48dc7cea2ff0.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/paul-gosar/us_congress/summary?mpid=1103698","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6AZ09085/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/danielle-sterbinsky/donors","https://cawp.rutgers.edu/research/cawp-women-money-and-politics-series/money-watch-2026/national","https://ballotpedia.org/William_Perry_(Arizona)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-13-house-2026","title":"2026 California's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 13th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T19:02:28.803005+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adam Gray","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Adam_Gray%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Kevin Lincoln II","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KevinLincolnII.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adam Gray","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.84,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"margin_estimate":4.8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Adam Gray enters the general with incumbency, a $4.19M-to-$2.24M fundraising edge, and a redrawn district that adds Democratic-leaning Stockton, while the June 2 top-two primary put him at 42.0% to Kevin Lincoln II's 27.7%. No public head-to-head polling exists and Gray's 2024 win came by fewer than 200 votes, so the race remains competitive despite the Democratic lean.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to hold this seat, with Gray's incumbency and fundraising edge outweighing a credible Lincoln challenge.","key_reasons":["Gray holds incumbency and a roughly 2-to-1 fundraising advantage ($4.19M vs $2.24M through June 30, 2026), giving him the resources to define a district that was redrawn to add Democratic-leaning Stockton.","The June 2 top-two primary produced a 42.0% to 27.7% Gray lead over Lincoln, indicating a meaningful Democratic baseline in the new district boundaries.","Lincoln is a credible challenger with Stockton mayoral experience, a Marine Corps background, and a presidential endorsement, which keeps the race from being safe for Democrats."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists and Gray's 2024 margin was under 200 votes, so the race could tighten; the Kalshi market's roughly 95% Democratic price is thin and was last observed in mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T19:02:22.955318Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA13-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA13-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA13115/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/Adam-Gray/summary/","https://www.turlockjournal.com/news/government/facing-mounting-criticism-over-transparency-gray-finally-explains-controversial-house-defense-vote/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA09093/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00845826/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kevin_Lincoln_II"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA13-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA13-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-13?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9504999999999999,"yes_bid":0.939,"yes_ask":0.962,"last_price":0.963,"volume":19543.94,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:08:11.575960Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA13-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA13-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA13-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-13?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.043,"yes_bid":0.026,"yes_ask":0.06,"last_price":0.044,"volume":10869.1,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:03:16.607342Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA13-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"ca-45-house-2026","title":"2026 California's 45th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 45th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T17:03:39.700924+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Derek Tran","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DerekTran2023.jpg"},{"name":"Chuong Vo","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chuong_Vo_20251120_034604.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Derek Tran","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Democrats hold a clear advantage in this seat: the district's post-redistricting lean moved from D+1 to D+5, incumbent Derek Tran raised roughly $4.98M through June 2026 against Chuong Vo's roughly $496K, and Tran took about 52.5% in the June 2 top-two primary while Vo advanced with about 15%. With no general-election polling logged, prediction-market pricing near 92-93% for Democrats is the main quantitative signal, and it points the same direction as the structural fundamentals.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to hold California's 45th District, with Derek Tran's incumbency, redistricting gains, and fundraising edge outweighing a thin Republican challenge.","key_reasons":["Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the seat from a D+1 to a D+5 lean, giving incumbent Democrat Derek Tran a more favorable baseline than his 653-vote 2024 win.","Tran's campaign raised roughly $4.98M through June 30, 2026 versus roughly $496K for Chuong Vo, a nearly 10-to-1 resource advantage reinforced by incumbency.","Tran advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with about 52.5% while Vo advanced with about 15%, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 92-93%."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race and the prediction-market quotes date to mid-September 2026, so the size of Tran's advantage rests on redistricting lean, fundraising, and primary results rather than head-to-head surveys.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T17:03:28.003440Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA45-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA45-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_45th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/derek-tran/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA45170/","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/rep-derek-tran-rakes-in-corporate-cash-despite-campaign-pledge/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/california/article_d54e8b1f-425a-4043-8f77-7713a7b90ee0.html","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/california-district-45-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA45191/","https://dccc.org/the-case-against-chuong-vo/","https://cagop.org/endorsements/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA45-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA45-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-45?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9255,"yes_bid":0.921,"yes_ask":0.93,"last_price":0.929,"volume":27427.96,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:17:35.567726Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA45-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA45-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA45-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-45?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0765,"yes_bid":0.067,"yes_ask":0.086,"last_price":0.09,"volume":71706.34,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:17:37.451545Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA45-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ca-governor-2026","title":"2026 CA Governor Election","office":"Governor of California","jurisdiction":"California","state":"CA","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T02:05:12.034020+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Xavier Becerra","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Xavier_Becerra.jpg"},{"name":"Steve Hilton","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_HiltonCA.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Xavier Becerra","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Xavier Becerra leads in all eight listed head-to-head polls, with the four most recent showing margins from +10 (Independent Voter Project, ended Oct. 2) to +25 (Berkeley IGS, ended Sept. 20). California's large Democratic registration advantage, the open seat's Democratic-held status, and Becerra's fundraising edge over Republican Steve Hilton reinforce that lead.","takeaway":"Becerra is heavily favored to hold California's open Democratic governorship, with polling leads and a strong partisan lean pointing to a double-digit win.","key_reasons":["Becerra leads every listed head-to-head poll, including PPIC 60-38 (Sept. 10), Berkeley IGS 58-33 and SurveyUSA 55-33 (both Sept. 20), and Independent Voter Project 48-38 (Oct. 2).","California's substantial Democratic registration advantage and partisan lean make a Republican flip of this open Democratic-held seat a long shot.","Becerra reported about $29.7 million in contributions plus a supportive committee above $14 million, against Hilton's roughly $21.4 million with no comparable supportive PAC."],"uncertainty":"The race's main caveat is whether the tighter readings — Independent Voter Project's 48-38 on Oct. 2 and the Hilton-commissioned David Wolfson poll's 49.2-41 on Aug. 18 — signal real movement toward Hilton or just survey variation against the wider double-digit leads elsewhere.","based_on_poll_count":8,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T02:05:05.927822Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/california","https://escholarship.org/content/qt2dh2g5z0/qt2dh2g5z0.pdf","https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/05/becerra-leads-hilton-but-governor-race-may-be-tightening-poll-finds/92102112007/","https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf","https://gvwire.com/2026/08/24/hilton-commissioned-poll-shows-a-tightening-ca-governors-race/","https://www.ppic.org/press-release/environment-a-factor-in-governors-race-us-house-races/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCA-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVCA-26-SHIL","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVCA-26-XBEC","https://kmph.com/news/beyond-the-podium/breakdown-of-becerra-hilton-campaign-contributions","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ca/candidate/xavier-becerra/contributors","https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-09-10/special-interests-spend-millions-boosting-becerra-in-governors-race","https://cagovtracker.com/candidates/xavier-becerra","https://www.fppc.ca.gov/search-filings/top-10-contributors-list/june-2026-primary-election/","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/california-governor-contributions-takeaways/","https://www.newspress.com/2026/08/22/becerra-hilton-california-governor/","https://abc7news.com/amp/post/2026-election-california-governors-race-steve-hilton-looks-court-voters-wary-president-donald-trump/19559839/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ca/candidate/steve-hilton","https://cagovtracker.com/candidates/steve-hilton","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/02/governors-race-fundraising-reports/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCA-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCA-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in California","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9644999999999999,"yes_bid":0.962,"yes_ask":0.967,"last_price":0.967,"volume":476757.76,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:01.572284Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCA-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCA-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in California","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.036000000000000004,"yes_bid":0.032,"yes_ask":0.04,"last_price":0.041,"volume":1340333.07,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:03.158440Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCA-26-R","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXGOVCA-26-SHIL","event_ticker":"KXGOVCA-26","title":"Who will win the governorship in California?","matched_to":"Steve Hilton","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.036500000000000005,"yes_bid":0.035,"yes_ask":0.038,"last_price":0.034,"volume":11021945.51,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-17T16:38:12.862219Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVCA-26-SHIL","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXGOVCA-26-XBEC","event_ticker":"KXGOVCA-26","title":"Who will win the governorship in California?","matched_to":"Xavier Becerra","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.963,"yes_bid":0.962,"yes_ask":0.964,"last_price":0.962,"volume":5911231.79,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-17T16:38:13.895999Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGOVCA-26-XBEC","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ca-house-01-2026","title":"2026 California's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 1st Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T06:07:43.769349+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James Gallagher","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JG-Casual-Headshot_20260422_234242_14115.jpg"},{"name":"Mike McGuire","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_McGuire.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike McGuire","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.2},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The Prop 50 map adds Santa Rosa and drops Shasta, Modoc and Siskiyou counties, leaving a district that leans Democratic, and the June 2 top-two primary showed Gallagher and McGuire advancing nearly tied under those new lines. Gallagher's incumbency and larger war chest keep the race competitive, but the structural advantage and McGuire's statewide profile make the Democratic state senator the clear favorite.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to flip California's 1st District, where the redrawn map and McGuire's profile outweigh Gallagher's incumbency and fundraising.","key_reasons":["Redistricting under Proposition 50 reshaped CA-01 into a Democratic-leaning seat by adding Santa Rosa and removing the conservative northern counties, and Gallagher and McGuire advanced from the June 2 top-two primary separated by less than a point under the new lines.","No general-election polling is available; the only public survey of the matchup, David Binder Research's Feb. 24-28 poll sponsored by the McGuire campaign, was conducted before the June primary and is not a reading on the November contest.","Gallagher is a sitting incumbent with roughly $1.05M raised federally through May 2026 and $3.15M cash on hand from prior state accounts, which keeps the race from being a Democratic runaway."],"uncertainty":"There is no general-election polling, and the lone public survey is a stale, campaign-sponsored primary poll, so the race turns on whether Gallagher's incumbency and cash advantage can overcome the new map's Democratic lean.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T06:07:23.083017Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/california-us-house-1-polls-2026.html","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/california-1/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA01285/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ca/candidate/james-gallagher","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/07/15/james-gallagher-raised-more-than-any-other-republican-california-state-assembly-candidate/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA01269/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ca/candidate/mike-mcguire","https://couragescore.org/representative/mike-mcguire/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.2},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"ca-house-02-2026","title":"2026 California's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 2nd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T17:16:34.306683+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jared Huffman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jared_Huffman.jpg"},{"name":"Robin Littau","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Robin_Littau_26_2026-04-30_154422.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jared Huffman","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Seven-term Democratic incumbent Jared Huffman represents a heavily Democratic North Coast district and advanced comfortably from the top-two primary (56.5%) against a Republican challenger who drew just 11.4%. The district's strong structural partisan lean and incumbency make the outcome highly predictable despite the absence of public general-election polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T19:46:52.512873Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA06259/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jared-huffman/us_congress/elections?mpid=1087226","https://www.times-standard.com/2026/06/01/california-2nd-congressional-district-candidates-approach-primary-election/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA02309/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00941948/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-03-2026","title":"2026 California's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 3rd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T19:02:55.156873+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ami Bera","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bera.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/bera.house.gov/files/evo-media-image/Official-headshot.jpg"},{"name":"Robb Tucker","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://i0.wp.com/yubanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/4M9A8906-1.jpg?ssl=1"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ami Bera","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The redrawn 3rd District carries an estimated eight-point Democratic voter-registration advantage, and Ami Bera enters the general election with a wide fundraising lead over Robb Tucker (roughly $2.1 million to $258,000, much of it self-loaned). With no public general-election polling logged, the strongest available signal is a prediction market pricing a Democratic win near 96%, a reading that is directionally consistent with the district's fundamentals but dated to mid-September.","takeaway":"Democrats are clearly favored in this open, newly redrawn Sacramento-area seat, though the absence of public polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["The newly drawn district combines Democratic-leaning parts of Sacramento County with Republican-leaning foothill counties but carries an estimated eight-point Democratic registration advantage.","Bera, a sitting House member and physician who has represented the neighboring 6th District since 2013, has raised roughly $2.1 million, while Tucker has raised about $258,000, including $205,000 in personal loans.","No public general-election polling exists; the Kalshi market priced a Democratic win at about 96.5% with meaningful volume as of September 15, 2026."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on how much weight to give a dated prediction-market signal and a registration edge in a district drawn only recently, since there is no public general-election polling and the market's last observation is from mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T19:02:48.352536Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA3-26-R","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/california-3/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00030717&cycle=2024&newMem=Y&type=P","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA03174/","https://legis1.com/news/ca-3-2026-primary-funding-shapes-californias-3rd","https://yubanet.com/regional/nevada-county-supervisor-robb-tucker-launches-campaign-for-congressional-district-3/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA3-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.965,"yes_bid":0.961,"yes_ask":0.969,"last_price":0.96,"volume":16070.68,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:07:19.825633Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA3-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.018500000000000003,"yes_bid":0.003,"yes_ask":0.034,"last_price":0.01,"volume":5505.82,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:07:21.917420Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"ca-house-04-2026","title":"2026 California's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 4th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T04:03:42.195015+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Thompson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Thompson.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Jones","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Jones_20250923_083142.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Thompson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Thompson nearly doubled Jones in the June 2 top-two primary (41.0% to 22.2%) and carries the advantages of 14 terms in office, California Democratic Party and state-leader endorsements, and a district-rooted donor base. Jones's roughly $8.4M, largely self-funded campaign and cross-party endorsement from Ray Riehle give him real upside, but nothing in the available data shows the incumbent's lead eroding.","takeaway":"Thompson is clearly favored for a 15th term, with Jones's self-funded outsider challenge showing no evidence of a closing gap.","key_reasons":["Thompson took 41.0% in the June 2 top-two primary to Jones's 22.2%, nearly doubling his intra-party rival and demonstrating far broader district-wide name recognition.","Fourteen terms of incumbency, California Democratic Party and top state-leader endorsements, and a donor base with more than 63% of individual contributions coming from inside the district.","Jones's heavy self-funding and anti-establishment, progressive profile give him a genuine base, but no public polling shows him closing the gap in a district whose redrawn, more conservative additions favor the established moderate."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the size of Thompson's advantage rests on primary results, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct general-election evidence, and the redrawn district's newer, more conservative territory plus Jones's heavy spending are the main unknowns.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T04:03:37.320917Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/congress.pdf","https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/02/12/corporate-pacs-vs-silicon-valley-sharply-different-fundraising-paths-for-democratic-rivals-mike-thompson-eric-jones-in-4th-district-race-for-congress/","https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/05/29/jones-campaign-money-thompson-district4/","https://napavalleyregister.com/news/fourth-district-campaign-finance/article_ef09ff4c-f373-42a9-afe4-980c27c8892e.html","https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/04/us/politics/04thompson.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA01109/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-4/compare/eric-jones-vs-mike-thompson","https://davisite.org/2026/04/30/super-pac-has-now-poured-over-1-1-million-dollars-into-ads-supporting-eric-jones/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA04222/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Mike Thompson":0.86,"Eric Jones":0.14},"margin_estimate":26,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Mike Thompson":0.88,"Eric Jones":0.12},"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Mike Thompson":0.85,"Eric Jones":0.15},"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"ca-house-05-2026","title":"2026 California's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 5th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-26T03:13:30.563495+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom McClintock","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Tom_McClintock_portrait_%28118th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Masuda","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Masuda_20250523_081044.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom McClintock","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Tom McClintock holds an overwhelming structural advantage: 17-plus years of incumbency in a strongly Republican-leaning district, a dominant 61.3%-24.3% top-two primary showing, and a roughly 2.5-to-1 fundraising edge over Democrat Michael Masuda. No public polling exists, but nothing in the race context suggests the district's partisan lean has shifted meaningfully.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-26T03:13:08.100852Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA04152/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00446815/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-mcclintock/us_congress/summary?mpid=1058526","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-mcclintock/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1058526","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-mcclintock/us_congress/pacs?cycle=2026&mpid=1058526&type=P","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA05377/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-5/compare/michael-masuda-vs-tom-mcclintock","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-06-2026","title":"2026 California's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 6th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T08:05:02.232325+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Richard Pan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Richard_Pan.jpg"},{"name":"Kevin Kiley","party":"No Party Preference","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kevin-Kiley.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Richard Pan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6399,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6399,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Preference":0.36},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 6th District's Democratic lean and a midterm cycle that typically works against the White House party give Richard Pan a narrow edge, even as the two head-to-head polls tightened from Pan +4 on July 24 to Pan +0.2 on September 1. Kevin Kiley's incumbency, his No Party Preference label, and a roughly $2.1 million cash-on-hand advantage keep the race competitive in a seat currently held by an independent.","takeaway":"Pan holds a narrow edge in a redrawn Democratic-leaning seat, but Kiley's incumbency and cash keep it close.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district leans Democratic and the midterm environment typically favors the party out of the White House, giving Pan a structural edge in a seat currently held by an independent.","Head-to-head polling shows a competitive race with a slight Pan lead: The Bullfinch Group had Pan 39 to Kiley 35 on July 24, narrowing to Pan 36.7 to Kiley 36.5 on September 1.","Kiley's incumbency, his No Party Preference ballot label, and a substantial cash-on-hand advantage offset the district lean and keep the outcome uncertain."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse — only two head-to-head surveys, the newest decided by 0.2 points — so the race turns on whether Kiley's cash advantage and incumbency outweigh the district's Democratic lean.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T08:04:58.889044Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/68d1c32ec01e1d1f6a86e801/6abaf0a470c7a5a2ba247b56_151dca06e31c001b9edb70b5ac86f8e9_CA06_Summary_Topline___Independent_Leadership_Council.pdf","https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/california/district-6","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA03158/","https://dccc.org/2026-red-to-blue/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=13008437&default=candidate","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/07/california-congressional-races-republican-fundraising/","https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/midterm-windfall/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/kevin-kiley/summary?cid=N00050259","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA03157/","https://thefulcrum.us/elections/kevin-kiley-independent-campaign-gerrymandering-california-redistricting","https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315566605.html"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"No Party Preference":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Independent":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"No Party Preference":0.43},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ca-house-07-2026","title":"2026 California's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 7th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:08:04.348366+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Doris Matsui","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DorisMatsui.PNG"},{"name":"Mai Vang","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Sacramento_City_Councilmember_Mai_Vang.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=api&utm_content=thumbnail_unscaled"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.54,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"low","rationale":"Both nominees are Democrats in a solidly Democratic seat, so the November contest turns on the Matsui-versus-Vang matchup rather than party control. Vang finished first in the certified June 2 top-two primary (31.2% to 29.1%) and led the newest matchup survey 32-28, while Matsui's incumbency, seniority and roughly three-to-one fundraising advantage keep the race effectively even.","takeaway":"Matsui and Vang are in a toss-up Democratic contest, with Vang's primary finish and latest poll lead offset by Matsui's incumbency and fundraising.","key_reasons":["Mai Vang finished first in the certified June 2 top-two primary with 31.2% to Doris Matsui's 29.1%, the strongest concrete evidence she can win this seat.","The newest available matchup survey, Data for Progress (ended 2026-08-18), shows Vang ahead 32-28, while the two earlier surveys split (Matsui +2 on 2026-05-01, Matsui +11 on 2026-03-17).","Matsui's long incumbency, committee seniority and record of directing federal funding to Sacramento, plus about $3.19M raised to Vang's roughly $1.09M through 6/30/2026, counterbalance Vang's primary result."],"uncertainty":"Only one post-primary survey (Data for Progress, ended 2026-08-18) is available, and the redrawn district's added conservative territory around Placerville makes the November electorate difficult to model, so the winner could hinge on whether Vang's primary showing and small-dollar base hold up against Matsui's incumbency and spending edge.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:57.700728Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.threads.com/@davidmileshogg/post/DZYitETkfPM/more-great-news-leaderswedeserve-candidate-maiforus-just-beat-year-incumbent/","https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/ca07_primary_memo_2026.pdf","https://static.notus.org/62/5b/f25e30584578b97c7acdc1f7629c/ca-07-ip-memo.pdf","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA05195/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/doris-matsui/summary","https://legis1.com/news/california-7th-congressional-district","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00918037/","https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article315696966.html"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Mai Vang":0.54,"Doris Matsui":0.46},"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Doris Matsui":0.46,"Mai Vang":0.54},"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Doris Matsui":0.65,"Mai Vang":0.35},"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.19}},{"id":"ca-house-08-2026","title":"2026 California's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 8th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:18:14.748095+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Garamendi","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John-Garamendi.PNG"},{"name":"Rudy Recile","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RudyRecile24.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Garamendi","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":26,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent John Garamendi represents a strongly Democratic northern Bay Area district he has held since 2009 and dominated the top-two primary 54.4% to 27.8% against a repeat, lightly funded challenger. The district's partisan composition, incumbency, and a roughly 57-to-1 fundraising gap make a Republican flip highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:17:58.586502Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thereporter.com/2025/11/21/garamendi-shows-weakened-support-in-post-prop-50-poll/","https://ballotpedia.org/California's_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/john-garamendi/summary?cid=N00030856&cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA10149/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/john-garamendi-ca","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA00153/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rudy-recile"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-09-2026","title":"2026 California's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 9th Congressional District — San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy, Manteca, Lodi) and parts of Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:24:36.272196+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Harder","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JOSH_HARDER.jpg"},{"name":"John McBride","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_McBride.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Harder","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder, first elected in 2018, holds a strongly Democratic-leaning district (D+8 PVI) and faces first-time Republican challenger John McBride, who is badly outspent (~$4.7M vs. ~$19K cash on hand). With no public polling, prediction markets imply roughly a 94% Democratic win, consistent with incumbency, district fundamentals, and the fundraising gap.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:24:15.100418Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA9-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA9-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA10126/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639146/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00040853","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/josh-harder-ca","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00846873/","https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article315865560.html"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA9-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA9-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-9?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9405,"yes_bid":0.921,"yes_ask":0.96,"last_price":0.942,"volume":3661.68,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:46:16.277535Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA9-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA9-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA9-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-9?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.044,"yes_bid":0.01,"yes_ask":0.078,"last_price":0.032,"volume":575,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:46:16.285958Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA9-26-R","confidence":"medium"}]}},{"id":"ca-house-10-2026","title":"2026 California's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 10th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:34:47.246427+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark DeSaulnier","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mark-DeSaulnier.jpg"},{"name":"Jeffrey Frese","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark DeSaulnier","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier faces a first-time Republican challenger in a heavily Democratic district spanning Contra Costa and Alameda counties, where the partisan lean and incumbency advantage make a Democratic hold highly probable. With no public polling, the forecast rests on district fundamentals and candidate strength rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:25:23.395522Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA10073/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mark-desaulnier/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1056863","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CA","https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_bd5e1221-9cba-4857-86b7-4318ae769e93.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA10187/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jeffrey-frese"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-11-2026","title":"2026 California's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 11th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T04:03:29.987609+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott Wiener","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ScottWiener12.jpg"},{"name":"Connie Chan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Connie-Centered_20260428_203019_17163.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Scott Wiener","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wiener finished well ahead of Chan in the June 2 top-two primary (40.7% to 29.7%) and leads both available general-election polls, 39-38 and 45-40, while holding roughly a four-to-one fundraising advantage and the San Francisco Chronicle endorsement. Chan's backing from Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer and organized labor keeps the contest competitive, but the structural advantages point to a clear Wiener edge in this all-Democratic open-seat race.","takeaway":"Wiener is clearly favored over Chan, buoyed by polling leads, a large fundraising edge and the Chronicle endorsement.","key_reasons":["Wiener led the June top-two primary 40.7%-29.7% and leads both recorded general-election polls (Public Policy Polling +1, Lake Research Partners +5).","Wiener has raised about $4.56 million to Chan's roughly $1.09 million, funding a substantial paid-communication advantage down the stretch.","Wiener carries the San Francisco Chronicle endorsement and a long legislative record on housing and AI safety, while Chan counters with Pelosi, Boxer and labor endorsements."],"uncertainty":"Only two general-election polls exist, both fielded in mid-summer, and Chan's Pelosi and Boxer endorsements plus union backing leave room for a closer finish than the polling and markets imply.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T04:03:24.720788Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://newspack-missionlocal.s3.amazonaws.com/mission/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/PUBLIC-POLLING-RESULTS-DECK.pdf","https://newspack-missionlocal.s3.amazonaws.com/mission/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/memo.Chan_.F.2026.07.22.pdf","https://missionlocal.org/2026/07/wiener-chan-tight-race-congress-polls/","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA11PERSON-26-SWIE","https://newspack-missionlocal.s3.amazonaws.com/mission/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/PUBLIC-POLICY-POLLING-RESULTS-DECK.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA11PERSON-26-CCHA","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA11116/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/scott-wiener/us_congress/summary?mpid=89747146","https://therealdeal.com/san-francisco/2026/05/03/real-estate-backs-wiener-heavily-in-ca-11-race/","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/scott-wiener/contributors?cycle=2024&id=32203683","https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/wiener-held-large-lead-in-campaign-fundraising-records-show/article_d3c0cd84-7476-4a40-9fd2-5cb2e56667e9.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA11268/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/connie-chan/us_congress/summary?mpid=89749758","https://missionlocal.org/2026/05/connie-chan-labor-congress/","https://missionlocal.org/2026/05/san-francisco-connie-chan-israel-aipac-congress/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00927558/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXCA11PERSON-26-CCHA","event_ticker":"KXCA11PERSON-26","title":"Who will win the CA-11 House election?","matched_to":"Connie Chan","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.21000000000000002,"yes_bid":0.2,"yes_ask":0.22,"last_price":0.22,"volume":60634.45,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-05T22:11:23.211928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA11PERSON-26-CCHA","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXCA11PERSON-26-SWIE","event_ticker":"KXCA11PERSON-26","title":"Who will win the CA-11 House election?","matched_to":"Scott Wiener","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.805,"yes_bid":0.8,"yes_ask":0.81,"last_price":0.81,"volume":98246.66,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-05T22:11:23.211928Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA11PERSON-26-SWIE","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Scott Wiener":0.8,"Connie Chan":0.2},"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Scott Wiener":0.8,"Connie Chan":0.2},"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Scott Wiener":0.78,"Connie Chan":0.22},"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"ca-house-12-2026","title":"2026 California's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 12th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T04:07:27.427493+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lateefah Simon","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LateefahSimon2024.jpg"},{"name":"Jamie Joyce","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jamie_Joyce_20260326_064121.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lateefah Simon","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":68,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Simon's certified 84.2%-15.6% top-two primary win, a roughly 46-to-1 fundraising advantage ($1.45M to $31K through June 30), and broad labor and progressive backing leave Joyce with no evident path in a district where both nominees are Democrats. With no public polling, the estimate rests on that lopsided result, incumbency, and the seat's overwhelming Democratic lean.","takeaway":"Incumbent Lateefah Simon is overwhelmingly favored over fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in this deep-blue East Bay seat.","key_reasons":["Simon won the June 2 top-two primary 84.2% to 15.6%, a roughly 69-point gap in a seat with no Republican alternative on the November ballot.","Simon's fundraising dwarfs Joyce's (~$1.45M vs ~$31K through June 30, 2026), and she carries major union and progressive endorsements plus first-term incumbency.","The district is overwhelmingly Democratic (D+39), so the general election is a same-party contest decided by candidate-level support rather than party swing."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for the general election, so the forecast rests on the primary margin, fundraising, and incumbency rather than direct head-to-head evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T04:07:23.562014Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2026-primary/sov/complete-sov.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA12154/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00056164","https://eastbayinsiders.substack.com/p/how-do-you-spell-love-m-o-n-e-y","https://ballotpedia.org/Lateefah_Simon","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/lateefah-simon/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA12209/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jamie-joyce/donors"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Lateefah Simon":0.97,"Jamie Joyce":0.03},"margin_estimate":50,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Lateefah Simon":0.995,"Jamie Joyce":0.005},"margin_estimate":68,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Lateefah Simon":0.96,"Jamie Joyce":0.04},"margin_estimate":75,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.035}},{"id":"ca-house-14-2026","title":"2026 California's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 14th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:05:57.735067+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Aisha Wahab","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Aisha-Wahab-Zoom-Profile_20260505_183837_18647.jpg"},{"name":"Melissa Hernandez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Melissa_Hernandez_20260403_020730.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Aisha Wahab","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.78,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Aisha Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18, 2026 special general election for this same seat, and she now carries congressional incumbency in a heavily Democratic East Bay district. Hernandez's larger fundraising and the millions spent by AIPAC-affiliated super PACs on her behalf did not change that head-to-head result, and no polling or market signal points the other way.","takeaway":"Wahab is favored in the rematch after beating Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in August and now running as the incumbent.","key_reasons":["Wahab won the same head-to-head matchup in the August 18, 2026 special general election, 53.1% to 46.9%, roughly two and a half months before the November rematch.","Wahab was sworn in on September 2, 2026 and now runs as the sitting incumbent in a district where both nominees are Democrats, so the contest turns on candidate-level support rather than party lean.","Hernandez's financial edge, including about $1.53 million in receipts and more than $2.4 million in United Democracy Project independent expenditures, was not enough to win the August 18 special general election and is concentrated among out-of-district donors."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for the rematch, and November turnout composition plus the scale of outside spending could differ from the August special, so the size of Wahab's advantage is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:05:53.509684Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California's_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA15213/","https://eastbayinsiders.substack.com/p/ca14-hernandez-raised-900k-in-july","https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/08/12/pro-israel-donors-groups-widen-backing-of-hernandez-in-congressional-race/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=55433553&default=candidate","https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/08/03/special-election-runoff-for-swalwells-seat-pits-wahab-against-hernandez/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA14163/","https://abc7news.com/post/millions-outside-spending-fuels-heated-east-bay-congressional-race-replace-eric-swalwell-aisha-wahab-melissa-hernandez/19659257/","https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/06/aipac-super-pacs-spend-millions-california"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Aisha Wahab":0.78,"Melissa Hernandez":0.22},"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Aisha Wahab":0.85,"Melissa Hernandez":0.15},"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Aisha Wahab":0.62,"Melissa Hernandez":0.38},"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.23}},{"id":"ca-house-15-2026","title":"2026 California's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 15th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:27:10.396514+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kevin Mullin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/Rep._Kevin_Mullin_official_portrait%2C_118th_Congress_%281%29.jpg"},{"name":"Charles Hoelter","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://i0.wp.com/www.almanacnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/profile-2-edited.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kevin Mullin","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin runs in a heavily Democratic Bay Area district (D+26 PVI) and dominated the top-two primary with 65.0% to Republican Charles Hoelter's 18.4%, while vastly outraising his first-time challenger, who has no FEC financial summary. No general-election polling exists, but district fundamentals, incumbency, and the primary result make a Democratic hold overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:26:57.476786Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA14162/","https://www.rwcpulse.com/election/2026/05/27/mullin-far-outraises-ca-15-challengers-as-pacs-fuel-campaign/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/kevin-mullin/us_congress/pacs?mpid=1061400","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA15194/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-16-2026","title":"2026 California's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 16th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:53:01.773959+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sam Liccardo","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SamLiccaro12.jpeg"},{"name":"Peter Soule","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PeterSoule2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sam Liccardo","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"First-term Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo dominated the June 2 top-two primary with 75.6% of the vote versus Republican Peter Soule's distant 10.8%, in a heavily Democratic Silicon Valley district. Liccardo also holds an overwhelming financial edge, having raised roughly $3.5M against Soule's $400 in reported receipts.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:52:46.743627Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA16197/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00936435/?cycle=2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00053487","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/sam-liccardo-ca","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/sam-liccardo/donors","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Sam%20Liccardo-L000607/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-16/compare/peter-soule-vs-sam-liccardo","https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPjW_Ahjaw4/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-17-2026","title":"2026 California's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 17th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:59:25.636423+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ro Khanna","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1200px-Ro_Khanna__official_portrait__115th_Congress_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"Ritesh Tandon","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ritesh_Tandon.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ro Khanna","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":47.5,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Ro Khanna dominates this heavily Democratic Silicon Valley district, winning the top-two primary 62.3% to 14.8% over Republican Ritesh Tandon and holding an enormous fundraising edge (~$11.4M raised vs. ~$9K). With no public polling, the forecast leans on primary results, district partisanship, incumbency, and prediction-market signals that put Khanna near 97%.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:59:11.205281Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_17th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA17PERSON-26-RKHA","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA17PERSON-26-RTAN","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00503185/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA17193/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ro-khanna/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1079298","https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/04/12/ro-khanna-faces-tech-backed-challenger-as-silicon-valley-support-fractures/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/17","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ro-khanna/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ro-khanna/us_congress/summary?mpid=1079298","https://ivoterguide.com/candidate/48900/race/25578/election/1385","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ritesh-tandon"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXCA17PERSON-26-RKHA","event_ticker":"KXCA17PERSON-26","title":"Who will win California 17th congressional district?","matched_to":"Ro Khanna","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.975,"yes_bid":0.96,"yes_ask":0.99,"last_price":0.95,"volume":11404.85,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-04-09T10:49:06.683592Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA17PERSON-26-RKHA","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXCA17PERSON-26-RTAN","event_ticker":"KXCA17PERSON-26","title":"Who will win California 17th congressional district?","matched_to":"Ritesh Tandon","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.019,"yes_bid":0.001,"yes_ask":0.037,"last_price":0.001,"volume":479,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-04-09T10:48:19.590953Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCA17PERSON-26-RTAN","confidence":"medium"}]}},{"id":"ca-house-18-2026","title":"2026 California's 18th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 18th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T20:58:22.207601+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Zoe Lofgren","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/80/Zoe_Lofgren_Official_Portrait_2024.jpeg"},{"name":"Shane Lewis","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1000012121-_1__20260430_042252_18049.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Zoe Lofgren","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren has represented this district since 1995 in a seat with a strong Democratic lean, and she advanced comfortably in the top-two primary while outraising her opponent by a wide margin. Republican Shane Lewis is a first-time congressional candidate with minimal fundraising, giving Lofgren an overwhelming structural advantage despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T20:58:04.593185Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_18th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481906","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/18","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA16049/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/zoe-lofgren/summary","https://ballotpedia.org/The_Donation_Concentration_Metric_(U.S._Congress_Personal_Gain_Index)","https://legis1.com/news/aicpa-pac-spending-2026-follow-the-money-by","https://benitolink.com/last-minute-campaign-donations-pour-into-county-candidates-coffers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA18172/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-18/compare/shane-lewis-vs-zoe-lofgren"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-19-2026","title":"2026 California's 19th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 19th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T21:03:06.081020+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jimmy Panetta","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Jimmy_Panetta_official_portrait_%28cropped%29_2.jpg"},{"name":"Peter Verbica","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/655331/655331.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jimmy Panetta","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Jimmy Panetta holds a Central Coast district that has elected Democrats without interruption since 1977 and dominated the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with 58.4% to Republican Peter Verbica's 20.5%. The structural Democratic advantage, incumbency, and weak challenger field make a Panetta re-election near-certain despite the absence of general-election polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:02:47.834900Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/guide-race-california-19th-congressional-120000649.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jimmy-panetta/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA20089/","https://transparentsalinas.org/elections","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-20-2026","title":"2026 California's 20th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 20th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:55:04.727805+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Vince Fong","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Vince-Fong.PNG"},{"name":"Sandra Van Scotter","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sandra_Van_Scotter_2026-07-30_014246.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Vince Fong","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Vince Fong holds a heavily Republican Central Valley seat and dominated the June 2 top-two primary with 68.2% to Democrat Sandra Van Scotter's 28.8%. Van Scotter is a first-time, grassroots-funded candidate with roughly $17K raised against Fong's $1.85M war chest, leaving Fong with an overwhelming structural advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:04:41.628829Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_20th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA20181/","https://www.kget.com/news/politics/your-local-elections/congressional-races-raise-millions-for-office-candidates-how-much-money-kern-co-candidates-collected-across-the-country/","https://www.electsandravanscotter.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00859892/","https://calmatters.org/politics/2023/12/california-big-oil/","https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/aipac-funding-flows-central-valley-011507650.html","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/sandra-van-scotter-ca-20","https://www.kget.com/news/politics/your-local-elections/curious-how-much-money-central-valley-candidates-have-raised-so-far-this-election-cycle-weve-broken-it-down/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-21-2026","title":"2026 California's 21st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 21st Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T19:02:10.688838+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim Costa","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Costa.jpg"},{"name":"Kyle Kirkland","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kyle_Kirkland2024.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Costa","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Costa has represented this Central Valley seat since 2004 in a district with a 40.8%-27.5% Democratic registration advantage and a D+5 lean, and he holds a roughly four-to-one fundraising advantage over Republican businessman Kyle Kirkland (~$1.34M to ~$340K). With no public general-election polling, market pricing near 95% for Democrats is consistent with a clear but not overwhelming Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa is clearly favored to hold California's 21st District on incumbency, partisan lean and a large fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Costa's long incumbency in a district that has consistently elected him, paired with a Democratic registration edge of 40.8% to 27.5% and a D+5 lean, gives him a structural advantage.","Costa's fundraising far outpaces Kirkland's (~$1.34M vs ~$340K), and the June 2 top-two primary advanced him at 42.2% while Democratic votes were split across multiple candidates.","Market pricing puts a Democratic win near 95%, reinforcing the view that Kirkland's path as a first-time candidate is narrow."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, and the market signal dates to mid-September with modest volume, so the size of Costa's advantage is less certain than its direction.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T19:02:05.684165Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA21-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA21-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00026341","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00391029/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jim-costa/donors","https://www.aol.com/news/guide-california-21st-congressional-district-120000080.html","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kyle-kirkland/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA20223/","https://thebusinessjournal.com/kirkland-announces-run-for-congress/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA21-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA21-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-21?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.948,"yes_bid":0.94,"yes_ask":0.956,"last_price":0.959,"volume":4413.15,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:15:06.527347Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA21-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA21-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA21-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for CA-21?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0555,"yes_bid":0.053,"yes_ask":0.058,"last_price":0.053,"volume":21381.35,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:15:08.852646Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA21-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"ca-house-22-2026","title":"2026 California's 22nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 22nd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:52.037580+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"David Valadao","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Valadao.jpg"},{"name":"Randy Villegas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Randy_Villegas_at_Vota_Palooza_in_2024_%28cropped%29.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Randy Villegas","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.76,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.76,"Republican":0.24},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The lone public survey, a Tulchin Research poll for House Majority PAC that ended June 15, put Randy Villegas ahead 48-44, and mid-September prediction markets priced a Democratic win near 90% in a Central Valley seat redrawn to be more favorable to Democrats. Valadao's incumbency, his history of overperforming here, and a roughly $3.4M-to-$572K cash-on-hand edge keep Republican odds meaningful, so the race remains competitive.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to flip California's 22nd District, with Villegas narrowly ahead in the only public poll.","key_reasons":["The only located public poll, Tulchin Research's survey for House Majority PAC that ended June 15, showed Randy Villegas leading David Valadao 48-44.","Mid-September prediction markets priced a Democratic win near 90%, consistent with a district redrawn under Proposition 50 to be more favorable to Democrats.","Valadao's incumbency, record of overperforming in the district, and large cash-on-hand advantage (~$3.4M vs ~$572K) give him a real path to hold the seat."],"uncertainty":"Public polling is limited to a single June survey and the market signal dates to mid-September, so the outcome turns on whether Valadao's incumbency and cash edge can overcome the district's Democratic-leaning redraw.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:43.250664Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-randy-villegas-leads-david-valadao-in-ca-22","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA22-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA22-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA20094/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/david-valadao/summary?cid=N00033367&cycle=CAREER&newmem=Y&type=C","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/david-valadao/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=CA22","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/07/california-congressional-races-republican-fundraising/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA22190/","https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article316582887.html","https://www.villegasforcongress.com/news/randy-villegas-holds-sizable-fundraising-lead-in-ca-22-primary","https://www.busboysandpoets.com/events/th-evt-58053782/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/chart-of-the-week-outside-groups-spend-millions-on-house-primaries/","https://workingfamilies.org/2025/07/working-families-party-endorses-randy-villegas-for-congress-in-ca-22/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA22-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA22-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-22?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.903,"yes_bid":0.89,"yes_ask":0.916,"last_price":0.89,"volume":56331.35,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:03:21.266569Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA22-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA22-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA22-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-22?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0955,"yes_bid":0.091,"yes_ask":0.1,"last_price":0.1,"volume":85924.54,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:15:15.538523Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA22-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.17},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.17},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.43},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.26}},{"id":"ca-house-23-2026","title":"2026 California's 23rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 23rd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T21:33:56.312795+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jay Obernolte","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jay-Obernolte.jpg"},{"name":"Tessa Lynn Hodge","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tessa_Lynn_Hodge_20250604_031912.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jay Obernolte","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"CA-23 is a solidly Republican district where three-term incumbent Jay Obernolte holds a dominant fundraising edge (~$1.46M vs. ~$79.5K) and won the top-two primary by 36 points over first-time Democratic challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge. With no public general-election polling and a challenger lacking elected-office experience and campaign infrastructure, structural factors strongly favor the incumbent.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:33:37.841553Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA08135/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jay-obernolte/summary","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/jay-obernolte-ca","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-23/compare/jay-obernolte-vs-tessa-lynn-hodge","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA23230/","https://www.ocregister.com/2026/05/05/tessa-lynn-hodge-ca-23-candidate-2026-primary-election-questionnaire/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-24-2026","title":"2026 California's 24th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 24th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-27T02:46:00.937535+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Salud Carbajal","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Salud_Carbajal_115th_Congress_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Bob Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BobSmith_CACD24.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Salud Carbajal","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Five-term incumbent Salud Carbajal holds a commanding structural edge in this D+13 Central Coast district, reinforced by a majority primary win (54%) and a roughly 8-to-1 fundraising advantage over Republican Bob Smith. With no public general-election polling, the call rests on incumbency, district partisanship, and finance rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-26T12:28:40.848973Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA24303/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA24345/","https://www.opensecrets.org/cong-cmtes/profiles?cmte=HARM&cmtename=Armed+Services&cong=118&cycle=2024","https://www.opensecrets.org/cong-cmtes/profiles?cmte=HTRA&cmtename=Transportation+and+Infrastructure&cong=118&cycle=2024","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/24","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/bob-smith"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-25-2026","title":"2026 California's 25th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 25th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T06:05:27.064986+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Raul Ruiz","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Raul-Ruiz.PNG"},{"name":"Joe Males","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://kyma.b-cdn.net/2026/07/JOE-MALES.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Raul Ruiz","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8751,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8751,"Republican":0.1249},"margin_estimate":8.8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Raul Ruiz brings seven terms of incumbency, roughly $2.1M raised against Joe Males's $936K, and 60% of the June top-two primary vote in a district that leans Democratic by about three points. Males has a thinner financial base and no federal record, while the district's sharp 2024 swing toward Trump and the absence of any general-election polling keep this short of a safe Democratic call.","takeaway":"Ruiz is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the district's 2024 rightward swing leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Seven-term incumbent Raul Ruiz holds a large fundraising edge ($2.1M vs $936K) and strong name recognition in a district that leans Democratic by roughly three points.","Ruiz took 60.0% in the June 2 top-two primary while the Republican vote split among three candidates, pointing to a comfortable general-election position.","The district's dramatic 2024 swing toward Trump and the complete absence of general-election polling or market data leave meaningful uncertainty about how competitive Males can make the race."],"uncertainty":"With no general-election polling or prediction-market data, the forecast rests on incumbency, fundraising, and the district's mixed partisan signals — the race turns on whether the district's 2024 rightward shift has durable down-ballot effects that a first-time federal candidate like Males can exploit.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T06:05:18.841176Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/congress.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA36439/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/raul-ruiz/donors","https://www.thedesertreview.com/news/local/ruiz-covers-tariffs-healthcare-social-security-responds-to-israel-palestine-criticism/article_2a6aab65-fc19-4716-a6d2-150ac4dbdc68.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00502575/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/raul-ruiz/us_congress/summary?mpid=1066707","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA25219/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joe-males"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"ca-house-26-2026","title":"2026 California's 26th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 26th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T19:02:07.125114+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jacqui Irwin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jacqui_Irwin.jpg"},{"name":"Samuel Gallucci","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Samuel_Gallucci.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jacqui Irwin","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"This is an open seat in a district with a strong Democratic lean, and Jacqui Irwin enters the general election with a decisive top-two primary lead (41.3% to 20.9%) plus a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Sam Gallucci. With no general-election polling logged, the contest carries real uncertainty, but the fundamentals point clearly to a Democratic win.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to win this open Ventura County-area seat, with Irwin's primary margin and fundraising edge outweighing limited polling uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district's Democratic-leaning electorate, anchored in Ventura County and extended into northern Los Angeles County under the post-Prop 50 lines, gives Irwin a structural advantage in an open-seat race.","Irwin finished first in the June 2 top-two primary with 41.3% to Gallucci's 20.9%, a roughly 20-point gap that signals a broad base of support.","Irwin holds a large resource edge: about $822,000 raised and roughly $295,000 cash on hand, versus Gallucci's roughly $380,000 raised, about $34,000 cash on hand and $130,000 in debt."],"uncertainty":"No general-election polling exists for this race, and the combination of an open seat and a first-time Republican nominee leaves the size of the Democratic margin, though not the direction, uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T19:01:58.655561Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_26th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA26266/","https://314action.org/2026/06/03/314-action-fund-congratulates-jacqui-irwin-on-victory-in-californias-26th-congressional-district-primary/","https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/06/02/irwin-gallucci-lead-in-26th-congressional-district-primary/90359326007/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-26/compare/jacqui-irwin-vs-samuel-gallucci","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA26241/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/samuel-gallucci"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":21,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ca-house-27-2026","title":"2026 California's 27th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 27th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:04:16.502055+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"George Whitesides","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/George_Whitesides%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29.png"},{"name":"Jason Gibbs","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"George Whitesides","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9499,"Republican":0.0501},"margin_estimate":14.2,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 27th District, reshaped under Proposition 50, carries a nearly 15-point Democratic voter-registration advantage, and incumbent George Whitesides holds a substantial fundraising edge over Republican Jason Gibbs, whose aggregated fundraising figures are not publicly available. With no head-to-head polling logged, market pricing near 95% for Democrats reinforces a clear Democratic advantage in this seat.","takeaway":"Whitesides is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of public polling leaves some uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Proposition 50 redistricting dropped conservative territory and added Reseda and Lake Balboa, leaving Democrats with a nearly 15-point registration advantage in the district.","Incumbent George Whitesides has a large fundraising advantage, while no aggregated fundraising totals are publicly available for Jason Gibbs.","No head-to-head polling exists, and prediction market pricing puts the Democratic win probability near 95%."],"uncertainty":"There is no head-to-head polling, Gibbs's fundraising is not publicly aggregated, and the market signal rests on a single venue with modest volume, so the winner is clearer than the likely margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:04:11.623141Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA27-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA27-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_27th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/george-whitesides/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/george-whitesides/industries","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA27111/","https://www.georgewhitesides.com/2025/10/15/rep-george-whitesides-announces-over-811000-raised-in-third-quarter/","https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/spacex-ipo-pac-republicans-politics-election-price-midterms-rcna349275","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_27th_Congressional_District_election,_2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA27306/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_27th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA27-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA27-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-27?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.952,"yes_bid":0.948,"yes_ask":0.956,"last_price":0.954,"volume":5247.63,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:15:43.360435Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA27-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA27-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA27-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-27?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.043,"yes_bid":0.04,"yes_ask":0.046,"last_price":0.044,"volume":2254.32,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:03:23.543225Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA27-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"ca-house-28-2026","title":"2026 California's 28th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 28th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-03T23:49:23.616903+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Judy Chu","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Judy_Chu.jpg"},{"name":"April Verlato","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AprilVerlato.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Judy Chu","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Judy Chu represents a heavily Democratic district and won the top-two primary with 62.2% against a Republican who took 32.1%. Her dominant fundraising ($3.67M cash on hand) and endorsement edge versus Verlato's minimal operation ($250 raised) make a Democratic hold virtually certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T21:46:29.130340Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_28th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA32101/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA28127/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ca-28/compare/april-verlato-vs-judy-chu","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/judy-chu/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1087227","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/april-verlato","https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/ca-28-primary-who-will-advance/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-29-2026","title":"2026 California's 29th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 29th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T04:03:32.261410+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Luz Maria Rivas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Luz-Maria-Rivas.PNG"},{"name":"Angélica María Dueñas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Angelica_Maria_DuenasCA.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Luz Maria Rivas","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Both nominees are Democrats in a deep-blue San Fernando Valley seat, so the race turns on the intra-party margin, where incumbent Rivas led the June 2 top-two primary 51.0% to 24.9% and holds roughly an 18-to-1 fundraising advantage. Dueñas's small-dollar, PAC-free grassroots campaign has not shown evidence of closing that gap, and no public polling has tested the general election.","takeaway":"Rivas is heavily favored to win a second term, powered by her primary lead and fundraising edge over Dueñas.","key_reasons":["Rivas led the June 2 top-two primary 51.0% to 24.9% over Dueñas, a roughly 26-point edge in the same electorate that will decide November.","Rivas holds a large financial advantage, about $671k raised through June 30, 2026 versus about $37k for Dueñas, with additional PAC and party committee support.","Rivas is the sitting incumbent with established name recognition in a safely Democratic district, while Dueñas is a repeat challenger running a limited-budget outsider campaign."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for the general election, so the estimate rests on the June primary result, fundraising, and incumbency, and a low-turnout same-party contest could yield a narrower margin than projected.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T04:03:23.961675Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_29th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA29141/","https://www.trackaipac.com/congress","https://ca.cair.com/updates/ca-house-democrats-joined-aipac-funded-trip-to-israel/","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Rivas-R000620/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA29100/","https://angelica4congress.com/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Luz Maria Rivas":0.94,"Angélica María Dueñas":0.06},"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Luz Maria Rivas":0.88,"Angélica María Dueñas":0.12},"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Luz Maria Rivas":0.85,"Angélica María Dueñas":0.15},"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"ca-house-30-2026","title":"2026 California's 30th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 30th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T15:18:57.110875+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Laura Friedman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LauraFriedman.jpg"},{"name":"Scott Meyers","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.meyersforcongress.com/photos/portrait-arms-crossed.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Laura Friedman","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"CA-30 is a Democratic stronghold with roughly a 3:1 Democratic registration advantage, and incumbent Laura Friedman combines a decisive incumbency edge with a large fundraising/cash-on-hand lead over Republican attorney Scott Meyers, who is largely self-funded. No public polling exists for this race, which tempers confidence, but the structural fundamentals overwhelmingly favor Friedman.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:16:11.818075Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA30149/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA30250/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_30th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/laura-friedman","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/30","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_30th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/scott-meyers/about/0a9216be-58dd-44e8-bff8-dabef5c49f49"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-31-2026","title":"2026 California's 31st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 31st Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T19:05:35.428072+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gil Cisneros","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GilCisneros2024.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Ching","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Ching__.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gil Cisneros","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.89,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.89,"Republican":0.11},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Cisneros enters the general with incumbency, a Democratic-leaning district, a 61.1% to 23.8% top-two primary showing, and roughly a 9-to-1 fundraising edge over Ching. With no public polling or market signals, the race points to a likely Democratic hold, though the absence of head-to-head data leaves real uncertainty about the margin.","takeaway":"Cisneros is favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, buoyed by incumbency, a strong primary showing, and a large fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Cisneros won the June top-two primary 61.1% to Ching's 23.8%, a strong signal in a district that already leans Democratic.","Cisneros holds a roughly 9-to-1 fundraising advantage ($705K vs $81K) with PAC and labor support, while Ching reports no PAC or party committee money.","No public polling or prediction markets exist, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency, and the primary result."],"uncertainty":"No head-to-head polling or prediction-market data exists, so the size of the Democratic advantage turns on November turnout and how firmly the district's post-redistricting lean holds.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T19:05:29.151022Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_31st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA39174/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/gilbert-cisneros-ca","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/gil-cisneros/us_congress/elections?mpid=1094604","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA39151/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00776930/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"ca-house-32-2026","title":"2026 California's 32nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 32nd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:59:49.487176+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Sherman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brad_Sherman.jpg"},{"name":"Larry Thompson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/390821/390821.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Sherman","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"A 15-term Democratic incumbent in a historically Democratic district faces a self-funded challenger who lost to Sherman in 2024 and has raised roughly 1% of the incumbent's war chest. With no public polling, the forecast rests on durable partisan and incumbency fundamentals rather than survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:16:20.135933Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_32nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brad-sherman/summary?cid=N00006897&cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA24113/","https://www.dailynews.com/2026/06/02/2026-election-results-ca-32-brad-sherman-faces-8-challengers/","https://www.npr.org/2026/03/05/nx-s1-5736533/midterms-fundraising-democrats","https://prospect.org/2020/09/29/hawkish-dem-brad-sherman-next-in-line-house-foreign-affairs-chairman/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA32137/","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/larry-thompson"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-33-2026","title":"2026 California's 33rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 33rd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T22:17:36.207859+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pete Aguilar","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Pete_Aguilar_117th_congress.jpeg"},{"name":"Stephanie Vargas","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephanie_Vargas_20260114_044626.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pete Aguilar","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"California's 33rd District carries a strong Democratic lean (D+7 PVI) and is anchored by an entrenched incumbent in Pete Aguilar, the No. 3 House Democrat, who took 53.5% in the top-two primary versus Vargas's 17.5%. With no general election polling and a challenger lacking a registered FEC committee, structural and resource advantages point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:17:25.241104Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_33rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA31125/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/pete-aguilar/summary","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/pete-aguilar/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/stephanie-vargas","https://www.stephanievargas4congress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-34-2026","title":"2026 California's 34th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 34th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:47.356622+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jimmy Gomez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Jimmy_Gomez_official_portrait_%28light_crop%29.jpg"},{"name":"Angela Gonzales-Torres","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Angela_GonzalesTorres_20250814_062216.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jimmy Gomez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.62,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Gomez's 15.3-point lead in the June 2 top-two primary (46.0% to 30.7%), his incumbency and his roughly $781,000 in cash on hand versus $44,000 for Gonzales-Torres give him a narrow structural edge in this all-Democratic, D+28 district. The only general-election poll, an Upswing Research and Strategy survey commissioned by the Guardrails Alliance super PAC, put Gonzales-Torres ahead 41%-38% but within its 4.9-point margin of error, so it does not overturn that edge.","takeaway":"Gomez is narrowly favored to hold this heavily Democratic seat, though a single close poll leaves the race competitive.","key_reasons":["Gomez finished first in the June 2 top-two primary with 46.0% to Gonzales-Torres's 30.7%, a 15.3-point margin, and the higher-turnout November electorate typically favors the better-known incumbent.","Gomez holds a large resource advantage: about $781,000 in cash on hand versus roughly $44,000 for Gonzales-Torres, plus more than $3.6 million in independent expenditures supporting him.","The lone general-election poll shows Gonzales-Torres ahead by 3 points, but that lead sits inside the survey's 4.9-point margin of error, leaving the structural advantages decisive."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Gomez's primary margin, incumbency and cash advantage outweigh a single small poll that placed Gonzales-Torres three points ahead within its 4.9-point margin of error.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:44.208895Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.semafor.com/article/09/10/2026/california-dem-faces-election-turbulence","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jimmy-gomez/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00629659/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jimmy-gomez/summary","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/jimmy-gomez","https://theintercept.com/2025/09/04/aipac-la-jimmy-gomez-primary-gonzales-torres/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA34286/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/angela-gonzales-torres","https://www.ocregister.com/2026/05/05/angela-gonzales-torres-ca-34-candidate-2026-primary-election-questionnaire/","https://justicedemocrats.com/candidate/angela-gonzales-torres/","https://www.angela4congress.com/about"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Jimmy Gomez":0.62,"Angela Gonzales-Torres":0.38},"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Jimmy Gomez":0.62,"Angela Gonzales-Torres":0.38},"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Jimmy Gomez":0.53,"Angela Gonzales-Torres":0.47},"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"ca-house-35-2026","title":"2026 California's 35th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 35th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:50:09.436773+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Norma Torres","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Norma_Torres_official_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Mike Cargile","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MikeCargile.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Norma Torres","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Norma Torres holds a strongly Democratic Inland Empire seat and has a dominant financial edge over Republican Mike Cargile, who has lost this contest in three prior cycles. With no public polling, the structural partisan and incumbency advantages point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:47:14.684203Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA35031/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA35146/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/california-35/forecast/","https://www.opensecrets.org/search?field=employer&q=goldman+sachs&type=orgs","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-36-2026","title":"2026 California's 36th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 36th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T22:59:26.140911+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ted Lieu","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rep_Ted_Lieu.jpg"},{"name":"Houston Brignano","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Houston_Brignano_20260428_022543.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ted Lieu","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Six-term Democratic incumbent and House leadership member Ted Lieu holds a decisive structural edge in this strongly Democratic coastal district, where Republican challenger Houston Brignano captured just 15.3% in the top-two primary and raised only about $5,000. No public polling exists, but the district's heavy Democratic lean combined with incumbency makes a Democratic victory highly probable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:45:31.336008Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_36th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00556506/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ted-lieu/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1128420","https://www.randomlengthsnews.com/archives/2026/05/14/shamma-challenges-rep-lieu/75582","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA36208/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/houston-brignano","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/houston-brignano/","https://ballotpedia.org/Houston_Brignano"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-37-2026","title":"2026 California's 37th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 37th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T04:07:29.088842+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sydney Kamlager-Dove","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sydney-KamlagerDove.jpg"},{"name":"Samantha Mota","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Samantha_Mota.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sydney Kamlager-Dove","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Kamlager-Dove finished the June 2 top-two primary at 55.2% to Mota's 11.7% and holds a roughly $1.15M-to-$10K fundraising advantage in a district that consistently elects Democrats. With no public polling and no market signals, the only open question is the size of the incumbent's margin.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove is overwhelmingly favored over fellow Democrat Samantha Mota in this safely Democratic Los Angeles seat.","key_reasons":["Kamlager-Dove led the June 2 top-two primary 55.2% to 11.7%, a roughly 43-point gap over Mota in the same field that produced this general-election matchup.","Her campaign raised about $1.15M with labor, legal, and PAC support, versus roughly $9,934 for Mota, almost entirely self-funded with no organizational donor base.","The district is a strongly Democratic Los Angeles County seat where the incumbent has held office since January 2023 and faces a first-time candidate with no legislative record."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market pricing exists for this race, so the estimate rests on the primary margin, the fundraising gap, and the district's partisan lean rather than on direct general-election evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T04:07:24.892496Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_37th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/sydney-kamlager-dove-ca","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00795823/","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Sydney%20Kamlager-Dove-K000400/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA37339/","https://ballotpedia.org/Samantha_Mota"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Sydney Kamlager-Dove":0.97,"Samantha Mota":0.03},"margin_estimate":45,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Sydney Kamlager-Dove":0.999,"Samantha Mota":0.001},"margin_estimate":55,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Sydney Kamlager-Dove":0.92,"Samantha Mota":0.08},"margin_estimate":42,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.079}},{"id":"ca-house-38-2026","title":"2026 California's 38th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 38th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T22:53:13.555178+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hilda Solis","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://lacounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Supervisor-Hilda-Solis-2026-819x1024.jpg"},{"name":"Pedro Casas","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://casasforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Casas-Speaking.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hilda Solis","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"CA-38 is a Democratic-leaning open seat where Democrat Hilda Solis cruised through the June 2 top-two primary with 47.6% against Republican Pedro Casas's 35.8%, and she pairs high-profile government experience with a roughly $1.05M fundraising haul while Casas reports no general-election campaign finance activity. With no opposition polling, the call rests on structural district fundamentals and a severe candidate-field disparity, but those factors point to an overwhelming Democratic advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T22:46:45.112040Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_38th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA38139/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA31212/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00917542/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/38","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_38th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)","https://casasforcongress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-39-2026","title":"2026 California's 39th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 39th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:11:57.019121+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Takano","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Mark_Takano_118th_Congress.jpeg"},{"name":"Steve Manos","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_Manos.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Takano","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano holds a Democratic-leaning district and defeated Republican Steve Manos 61%-39% in the June top-two primary, with no public general-election polling as of late August. Takano's incumbency, committee seniority, and fundraising edge over the lightly funded challenger make a Democratic hold highly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-26T03:36:06.630809Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2026-primary/sov/76-us-rep.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA43245/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mark-takano/summary?cid=N00034314","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00904557/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_39th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-40-2026","title":"2026 California's 40th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 40th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:08:56.647299+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ken Calvert","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ken-Calvert.PNG"},{"name":"Young Kim","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Young_Kim.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Young Kim","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.55,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":1},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This member-versus-member Republican contest turns on candidate-level factors in a district that leans Republican, and Young Kim holds the stronger position on money and on the newest survey. Ken Calvert's long Riverside County base, his Defense Appropriations chairmanship and roughly $3 million in outside spending against Kim keep the race close.","takeaway":"Young Kim is narrowly favored over Ken Calvert, lifted by a fundraising edge and the most recent head-to-head poll.","key_reasons":["Grassroots Targeting's Sept. 9 survey of 800 respondents put Young Kim ahead 43-34, while Public Opinion Strategies' Aug. 20 survey had Calvert ahead 35-34 — the two most recent general-election polls split.","Kim out-raised Calvert $1.87 million to $900,000 in the second quarter of 2026 and has spent about $9.3 million this cycle versus Calvert's roughly $5 million, with about $1.7 million cash on hand to his $1.5 million.","Kim is the sitting incumbent for the 40th District, while Calvert's seniority and Defense Appropriations gavel plus roughly $3 million in outside spending from Americans 4 Security offset that advantage."],"uncertainty":"General-election polling is sparse and contradictory — the two most recent surveys split between a nine-point Kim lead and a one-point Calvert edge — so the race hinges on whether Calvert's outside-spending support and Riverside base outweigh Kim's fundraising and incumbency advantages.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:08:48.991355Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2026/09/17/paramounts-nashville-overture-01081617","https://youngkimforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/CA_20CD_2040_20Survey_20Key_20Findings_20Memo.pdf","https://theliberaloc.com/2026/05/09/three-way-dead-heat-in-ca-40-house-battleground/","https://theliberaloc.com/2026/04/06/esther-kim-varet-leads-ca-40-primary-contest-in-800-voter-poll/","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019c-46cb-d0f8-adde-fedb4a9d0000","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_40th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.ocregister.com/2026/07/17/report-young-kim-raising-more-money-than-ken-calvert-in-race-for-californias-40th-congressional-district/","https://legis1.com/news/california-40th-congressional-district-campaign-funding","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Calvert-C000059/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ken-calvert/us_congress/summary?mpid=1046172","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Young%20Kim-K000397/donors"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Young Kim":0.55,"Ken Calvert":0.45},"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Ken Calvert":0.39,"Young Kim":0.61},"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":1},"candidate_probabilities":{"Young Kim":0.55,"Ken Calvert":0.45},"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"ca-house-41-2026","title":"2026 California's 41st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 41st Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:10:21.648090+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Linda Sánchez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LindaSanchezReplace.jpg"},{"name":"Mitch Clemmons","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/0031-2_20260501_180837_19704.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Linda Sánchez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Democrats hold a roughly 46%-to-26% registration edge in this redrawn district, and incumbent Linda Sánchez combines deep local labor ties with a massive fundraising advantage (~$1.6M vs. ~$1.7K). Prediction markets price the Democratic win near 95%, consistent with an overwhelming structural lean despite zero public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:10:09.790290Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_41st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/california-41/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA41-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA41-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA39078/","https://www.notus.org/2026-election/linda-sanchez-grassroots-money-campaign","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/linda-sanchez/us_congress/summary?mpid=1113086","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/41","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA38260/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00946038/","https://ballotpedia.org/Mitch_Clemmons"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA41-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA41-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-41?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9524999999999999,"yes_bid":0.941,"yes_ask":0.964,"last_price":0.936,"volume":6047,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:46:48.779606Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA41-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA41-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA41-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-41?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.022,"yes_bid":0.007,"yes_ask":0.037,"last_price":0.02,"volume":2900,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:46:48.783684Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA41-26-R","confidence":"high"}]}},{"id":"ca-house-42-2026","title":"2026 California's 42nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 42nd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:10:51.402819+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Robert Garcia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Robert_Garcia_119th_Congress.jpeg"},{"name":"Brian Burley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/brianburley.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Robert Garcia","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia holds a heavily Democratic district (D+18 PVI) and dominated the top-two primary with 56.5% to Republican Brian Burley's 20.6%, backed by a roughly 11-to-1 fundraising advantage. With no public polling, the structural signals point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:10:39.849299Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_42nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00797795/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA47188/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/robert-garcia/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA48172/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-43-2026","title":"2026 California's 43rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 43rd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:10:14.473986+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maxine Waters","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Maxine_Waters%2C_Official_Portrait%2C_113th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Cristian Morales","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cristian-Morales.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maxine Waters","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Waters' 63.8% top-two primary showing against a Republican newcomer in a heavily Democratic district gives her an overwhelming structural advantage, and her long incumbency plus the challenger's $0 reported fundraising reinforce that outlook. No general-election polling exists, but the fundamentals make a Republican upset implausible.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:10:01.877094Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_43rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.dailynews.com/2026/06/02/2026-election-results-ca-43-maxine-waters-faces-3-challengers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA23011/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/maxine-waters/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1103596","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=1257359&default=candidate","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/maxine-waters-campaign-pay-68000-violating-campaign-finance-laws","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA43188/","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_43rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-44-2026","title":"2026 California's 44th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 44th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:34:21.344479+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nanette Barragán","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nanette_Barragan.jpg"},{"name":"Genevieve Angel","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Genevieve_Angel_2026.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nanette Barragán","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Nanette Barragán, first elected in 2016 and seeking a sixth term, runs in a solidly Democratic district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than three to one. Her challenger's minimal fundraising (~$13,900 raised, ~$8,700 cash on hand) and the district's deep partisan lean make Barragán an overwhelming favorite despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:10:29.753272Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_44th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA44210/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA44103/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/nanette-barrag-n-ca","https://www.angelforcongress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-46-2026","title":"2026 California's 46th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 46th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:37:59.252124+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lou Correa","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lou_Correa.jpg"},{"name":"David Pan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DavidPan.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lou Correa","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a nearly 2-to-1 Democratic registration edge in CA-46, won the top-two primary 51.9% to 32.9% over Republican David Pan, and holds a massive cash-on-hand advantage (~$2.48M vs ~$6.2K). With no public polling, the forecast rests on these structural and historical factors, which point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:37:46.692254Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_46th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA46116/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA46137/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CA/46","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Luis%20Correa-C001110/donors","https://www.boldpac.com/chc-bold-pac-endorses-rep-lou-correa-for-re-election-in-californias-46th-congressional-district","https://www.uschamber.com/improving-government/elections/u-s-chamber-endorses-rep-lou-correa-for-californias-46th-congressional-district-2","https://www.davidpan4congress.com/","https://www.einpresswire.com/article/927258539/congressman-ken-calvert-endorses-david-pan-for-congress"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-47-2026","title":"2026 California's 47th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 47th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T21:47:06.625065+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dave Min","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DaveMin2024.jpg"},{"name":"Jenny Rae Le Roux","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jenny_Rae_Le_Roux.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dave Min","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Dave Min holds a clear advantage in this Orange County seat, where a 36-32 Democratic registration edge and a D+6 lean reinforce his roughly $3.4M fundraising haul against Jenny Rae Le Roux's ~$376K, much of it self-funded. No public head-to-head polling exists, but market pricing puts Democratic odds near 95%.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to hold CA-47, with incumbent Dave Min's fundraising edge and the district's Democratic lean outweighing a sparse polling record.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and district fundamentals: Min already holds a seat with a 36-32 Democratic registration advantage and a D+6 partisan lean, and he advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 45.4% to Le Roux's 25.0%.","Resource gap: Min raised roughly $3.4M this cycle versus about $376K for Le Roux, whose total includes $150,000 in self-loans and no PAC money, leaving her at a large disadvantage in paid communication.","Market signal: Kalshi's CA-47 market priced a Democratic win at about 95.5% as of September 15, 2026, with the Republican contract near 3.6%."],"uncertainty":"No public head-to-head polling exists for this race, and the market read comes from a single mid-September snapshot with modest volume, so the size of Min's advantage is less certain than its direction.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T21:47:01.644241Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA47-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA47-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_47th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA47085/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/dave-min/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/dave-min/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA47114/","https://lookout.co/their-long-shot-california-dream-beating-gov-gavin-newsom/story"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA47-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA47-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.955,"yes_bid":0.944,"yes_ask":0.966,"last_price":0.953,"volume":5316.48,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:17:47.385187Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA47-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA47-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA47-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CA-47?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.035500000000000004,"yes_bid":0.014,"yes_ask":0.057,"last_price":0.057,"volume":1111.87,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:17:49.651988Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA47-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0}},{"id":"ca-house-48-2026","title":"2026 California's 48th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 48th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:04.402813+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marni von Wilpert","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marni_von_Wilpert_20250918_051037.jpg"},{"name":"Jim Desmond","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/678019956176610b8d5f03b5/511bb210-c01b-44b2-ae67-574d2c2edc74/Jim_Desmond_4x6+copy.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marni von Wilpert","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The redrawn 48th District moved roughly 18 points toward Democrats and now carries a slight Democratic registration edge, and Marni von Wilpert led each of the three post-primary general-election polls, most recently 47-38 in the October SurveyUSA survey. Von Wilpert's 3-to-1 fundraising advantage and EMILYs List/DCCC Red to Blue backing outweigh Jim Desmond's cash-on-hand edge and his Trump and Issa endorsements in a district that now leans Democratic.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored in California's open 48th District, where von Wilpert leads recent polling in a redrawn seat.","key_reasons":["The district was redrawn roughly 18 points toward Democrats and now has a slight Democratic voter-registration edge, giving the Democratic nominee a structural baseline in this open seat.","Von Wilpert led the July Lake Research Partners poll 48-46, the September SurveyUSA poll 45-42, and the October SurveyUSA poll 47-38, with the latest lead outside the roughly 5-point credibility interval.","Von Wilpert outraised Desmond by more than 3-to-1 in the period ending June 30, 2026 and holds EMILYs List, DCCC Red to Blue, and labor backing, offsetting Desmond's larger cash-on-hand total and Trump and Issa endorsements."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Desmond's cash-on-hand edge and Trump and Issa endorsements can close a 9-point gap with 15% still undecided, and the October SurveyUSA credibility interval of about 5 points leaves room for movement.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:05:57.750290Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/10/09/von-wilpert-widens-lead-over-desmond-in-closely-watched-48th-congressional-district/","https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/09/04/von-wilpert-desmond-locked-in-close-race-for-congress-in-north-county-poll-finds/","https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/07/27/Lake-Research-Partners-California--48","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_48th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/california/district-48","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/07/california-congressional-races-republican-fundraising/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA48310/","https://emilyslist.org/news/emilys-list-endorses-marni-von-wilpert-for-californias-48th-congressional-district/","https://legis1.com/news/ca-48-campaign-funding-2026-super-pac-war-erupts","https://www.marnivonwilpert.com/endorsements","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA49128/","https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2026/03/06/desmond-files-to-run-in-congressional-district-held-by-issa","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/03/democrat-marni-von-wilpert-republican-jim-desmond-issa-seat-00947485","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/05/california-congressional-races-watch/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Republican":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.17}},{"id":"ca-house-49-2026","title":"2026 California's 49th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 49th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T21:46:36.415793+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Levin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Levin.jpg"},{"name":"Armen Kurdian","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Armen_Kurdian_20260329_062756.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Levin","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":9.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin holds a clear structural edge in a redrawn coastal seat that now leans distinctly Democratic, and his 55.9% top-two primary share against Armen Kurdian's 26.1% plus a roughly $3.16M-to-$59K fundraising gap reinforce that advantage. The lone public survey, a July 14 Lake Research Partners poll showing Levin 48% to Kurdian 46%, is a narrow and dated signal that tempers but does not overturn the structural picture.","takeaway":"Levin is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though a thin, dated poll keeps the race from being a lock.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district leans clearly Democratic and Levin is the incumbent, giving him a strong baseline advantage.","Levin's 55.9% June 2 top-two primary share versus Kurdian's 26.1%, combined with roughly $3.16M raised to Kurdian's ~$59K, shows a consolidated base and a large resource gap.","The only listed public poll (Lake Research Partners, D, ended July 14) shows just a 48-46 Levin lead, a narrow and stale reading that caps confidence."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Levin's incumbency, partisan lean and fundraising dominance outweigh the single, months-old poll showing only a two-point lead, with no fresh public polling to confirm the margin.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T21:46:31.995391Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/california-49/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA49-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA49-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_49th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-levin/summary?cid=N00040667&cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CA49058/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00942680/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/armen-kurdian/donors"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA49-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECA49-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9704999999999999,"yes_bid":0.964,"yes_ask":0.977,"last_price":0.98,"volume":14071.18,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:17:59.349479Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA49-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECA49-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECA49-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.024999999999999998,"yes_bid":0.013,"yes_ask":0.037,"last_price":0.017,"volume":774,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:18:01.331231Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECA49-26-R","confidence":"medium"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"ca-house-50-2026","title":"2026 California's 50th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 50th Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T22:12:53.493447+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott Peters","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Scott_Peters.jpg"},{"name":"Steve Cohen","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_Cohen.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Scott Peters","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Peters carries the advantages of incumbency in a Democratic-leaning coastal San Diego district, a June top-two primary lead of 48.1% to 39.8%, and roughly $2.6 million cash on hand against about $95,000 for Cohen. With no public polling of the general election, those structural factors point to a comfortable Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Peters is favored to hold this Democratic-leaning San Diego seat, though the absence of polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and partisan lean: Peters has held this San Diego-area seat since 2013 and the district is currently Democratic-held, giving him a strong baseline in a midterm year.","June 2 top-two primary result: Peters advanced with 48.1% to Cohen's 39.8%, a clear Democratic edge in the only vote count available for this matchup.","Resource gap: Peters reported about $2.6 million cash on hand versus roughly $95,000 for Cohen, a first-time candidate with no elected experience."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the Peters-Cohen general election exists, so the estimate rests on district history, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct voter surveys, and the district has been competitive in past cycles.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:12:48.480119Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_50th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA52089/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00503110/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/scott-peters/us_congress/summary?mpid=1065851","https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2026/04/30/2026-primary-election-us-congressional-races-explainer-districts-48-49-50-51-52","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00422980/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"ca-house-51-2026","title":"2026 California's 51st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 51st Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T04:03:38.009395+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sara Jacobs","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sara_Jacobs.png"},{"name":"Ricardo Cabrera","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ricardo_Cabrera_20260423_061041.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sara Jacobs","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a strongly Democratic-leaning district (D+10 PVI) and dominated the June 2 top-two primary with 57.7% to Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37.0%, after winning the seat with 60.7% in 2024. With no public general-election polling, the forecast rests on district fundamentals, the primary result, and Cabrera's absence of reported fundraising rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T23:39:08.810605Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_51st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00719559/","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ca-house-52-2026","title":"2026 California's 52nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"California's 52nd Congressional District","state":"California","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T02:42:25.505955+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Juan Vargas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Juan_Vargas_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Jeff Belle","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jeff_Belle_20260408_083641.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Juan Vargas","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Juan Vargas holds a D+13 South Bay district he has represented since 2013, won the top-two primary by more than 23 points, and holds a roughly 20-to-1 fundraising edge over Republican Jeff Belle. With no public polling, the forecast rests on structural factors, but they overwhelmingly favor Vargas.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T02:42:12.028169Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_52nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA50026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CA52163/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/juan-vargas/summary?cid=N00007021","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00497321/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/juan-vargas-ca","https://www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2026/04/22/rep-juan-vargas-denies-receiving-aipac-money-contradicting-the-public-record","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/jeff-belle/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"co-governor-2026","title":"2026 Colorado Governor Election","office":"Governor of Colorado","jurisdiction":"Colorado","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T08:06:32.385905+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Phil Weiser","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sammy-22_20260608_173625_39600_1.jpg"},{"name":"Victor Marx","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Vaughn_Marx_20251216_070309.jpeg"},{"name":"Stephen Hamilton","party":"American Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephen_Hamilton_20241204_040055.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Mulder","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric-Mulder.PNG"},{"name":"Erik Underwood","party":"Approval Voting","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.denverpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/erik-underwood-barn-headshot-pic-2018.jpg"},{"name":"Greg Lopez","party":"Unaffiliated","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/Greg_Lopez_in_2024.jpg"},{"name":"Jeff Peckman","party":"Unity","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://coloradonewsline.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/jeff-peckman.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Phil Weiser","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"American Constitution":0.001,"Approval Voting":0.001,"Democratic":0.9499,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.002,"Republican":0.04,"Unaffiliated":0.005,"Unity":0.001},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Colorado has not elected a Republican governor since 2002 and leans clearly Democratic, and Weiser brings two statewide wins as Attorney General plus a large cash-on-hand advantage over first-time candidate Marx. The seven-candidate field, including unaffiliated former U.S. Representative Greg Lopez and four third-party nominees, leaves the non-Democratic vote fragmented.","takeaway":"Democrats are strongly favored to hold Colorado's open governorship, with Weiser's statewide profile and cash edge over Marx.","key_reasons":["Colorado's durable Democratic statewide lean: no Republican has won the governorship since 2002, and the seat is currently Democratic-held.","Weiser is a two-term statewide elected Attorney General with a substantial cash-on-hand advantage ($369,300 vs. Marx's $137,000) over a first-time candidate.","The ballot's unaffiliated and third-party candidates, including former U.S. Representative Greg Lopez, offer voters alternatives that can fragment the non-Democratic vote."],"uncertainty":"No head-to-head general-election poll of the current roster has been published, and it is unclear how much the unaffiliated and third-party candidates will draw from each major party's total.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T08:06:24.811568Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/generalCandidates.html","https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/governor/2026/colorado","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCO-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCO-26-R","https://www.transparencyusa.org/co/candidate/philip-weiser","https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/phil-weiser-campaign-donations-attorneys-firms-litigation/","https://coloradonewsline.com/2026/06/10/record-breaking-fundraising-colorado-governor-race/","https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2026/08/04/campaign-finance-numbers-colorado-governors-race","https://philforcolorado.com/new-phil-weiser-raises-record-breaking-6m-in-colorado-governors-race/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/07/24/victor-marx-campaign-finance-violations/","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/05/07/victor-marx-phil-weiser-lead-colorado-gubernatorial-fundraising-as-all-campaigns-hauls-top-20-million/","https://ballotpedia.org/Stephen_Hamilton","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/stephen-hamilton","https://ballotpedia.org/Eric_Mulder","https://www.kunc.org/politics/2026-08-27/can-independent-candidates-gain-traction-maybe-not-but-its-not-stopping-them-from-trying","https://tracer.sos.colorado.gov/PublicSite/SearchPages/CandidateDetail.aspx?Type=CA&SeqID=37703","https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/23/erik-underwood-colorado-governor-campaign-finance/","https://tracer.sos.colorado.gov/PublicSite/SearchPages/CandidateDetail.aspx?SeqID=37330","https://ballotpedia.org/Jeff_Peckman","https://www.cpr.org/2026/05/29/vg-2026-primary-election-colorado-governor-jeff-peckman/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCO-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCO-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Colorado","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9675,"yes_bid":0.961,"yes_ask":0.974,"last_price":0.974,"volume":51789.6,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:05.877366Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCO-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCO-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCO-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Colorado","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.035,"yes_bid":0.031,"yes_ask":0.039,"last_price":0.039,"volume":100474.85,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:06.873305Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCO-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Unaffiliated":0.005,"Libertarian":0.002,"American Constitution":0.001,"Approval Voting":0.001,"Unity":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.007,"Libertarian":0.001,"American Constitution":0.001,"Approval Voting":0.0005,"Unity":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.08,"American Constitution":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01,"Approval Voting":0.005,"Unaffiliated":0.01,"Unity":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"co-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 1st Congressional 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Kiros' decisive 49.3%-to-43.5% primary win over a 15-term incumbent shows strong grassroots support, and a fragmented general-election field offers no realistic path to a Republican or third-party victory.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T02:39:17.122362Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://zeteo.com/p/melat-kiros-diana-degette-colorado-congress-poll","https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/vote/generalCandidates.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Melat_Kiros","https://ballotpedia.org/Christy_Peterson","https://ballotpedia.org/Chad_Humphrey","https://ballotpedia.org/Critter_Milton","https://ballotpedia.org/Shimon_Blau","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00946152/","https://ballotpedia.org/Chad_Humphrey_(Colorado)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?q=Chad%20Humphrey&office=H&state=CO&cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO01356/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00956516/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"co-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T15:04:25.311235+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Neguse","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/joe_neguse_resize.jpg"},{"name":"Kelley Dennison","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kelley_Dennison_2026-06-11_142555.jpeg"},{"name":"Gaylon Kent","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/gkent.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joe Neguse","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Colorado's 2nd District is a heavily Democratic seat (D+20 PVI) held by Democrats for over 50 years, and incumbent Joe Neguse is a senior House Democratic leader who ran unopposed in the primary. His Republican opponent is a first-time, lightly resourced challenger, and with no public polling the forecast rests on strong partisan fundamentals and incumbency.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T14:57:18.150914Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CO02160/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO02206/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/joseph-neguse/summary?cid=N00041080","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joe-neguse/donors","https://www.thecentersquare.com/colorado/article_723cdb6e-5993-4daa-a2cd-9b3163363310.html","https://coloradosun.com/2025/07/21/joe-neguse-colorado-lobbying-ban/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/04/16/congressional-fundraising-colorado-2026/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/06/19/congressional-candidates-are-raising-and-spending-a-lot-of-money-as-they-dash-to-the-primary/","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Joe+Neguse+just+disclosed+%24338.5K+of+new+fundraising","https://estesvalleyvoice.com/2026/06/23/at-27-estes-parks-dennison-brings-an-unconventional-face-to-colorado-gop-politics/","https://ballotpedia.org/Gaylon_Kent","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Colorado"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"co-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:30.641243+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jeff Hurd","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JeffreyHurd.jpg"},{"name":"Dwayne Romero","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dwayne_Romero_20260520_155748_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Cory Robertson","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Clifton Brown","party":"Unaffiliated","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CliftonBrown2026_2026-07-27_173352.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jeff Hurd","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.72,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.27,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.72,"Unaffiliated":0.005},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Jeff Hurd leads in the three available head-to-head polls and holds a large fundraising advantage in a district Republicans have held since 2011. The most recent survey, Keating Research's July 21 poll, is nearly tied at Hurd 46 / Romero 45 with 9% undecided, so the race remains genuinely competitive even as the fundamentals favor the incumbent.","takeaway":"Hurd is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though a near-tied July poll and 9% undecided keep it competitive.","key_reasons":["Hurd leads in every available head-to-head poll, from +9 (Expedition Strategies, Jan. 12) to +5 (Ragnar Research Partners, Mar. 12) to +1 (Keating Research, July 21), and the district has been Republican-held since 2011 with a GOP registration edge of roughly 41,000 over Democrats.","Hurd's fundraising is far larger: about $3.55 million raised through June 30, 2026, versus roughly $716,576 for Romero, including $350,000 in self-loans.","Prediction markets price a Republican win near 72-73%, consistent with incumbency and district lean, though the July poll's 9% undecided leaves room for movement."],"uncertainty":"The only recent public poll is from July and shows a one-point race with 9% undecided, so the outcome turns on whether Hurd's incumbency, district lean and fundraising edge outweigh late movement among the district's large unaffiliated bloc.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:25.101509Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/colorado-3/","https://www.summitdaily.com/news/colorado-3rd-congressional-district-romero-hurd/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO3-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO3-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CO03357/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/jeff-hurd","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO03253/","https://www.postindependent.com/news/colorado-funding-republican-democratic-candidates-congressional-district-race/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=Cory+Robertson&cycle=2026&election_year=2026"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECO3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECO3-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CO-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.265,"yes_bid":0.26,"yes_ask":0.27,"last_price":0.28,"volume":42792.57,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:18:34.711784Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECO3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECO3-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CO-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.725,"yes_bid":0.71,"yes_ask":0.74,"last_price":0.71,"volume":22519.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:18:36.901258Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.72,"Democratic":0.27,"Libertarian":0.005,"Unaffiliated":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.73,"Democratic":0.26,"Libertarian":0.005,"Unaffiliated":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.57,"Democratic":0.41,"Libertarian":0.01,"Unaffiliated":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.16}},{"id":"co-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 4th Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-06T01:54:33.026680+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lauren Boebert","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LaurenBoebert.jpg"},{"name":"Eileen Laubacher","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eileen_Laubacher_20250517_075551.jpeg"},{"name":"Douglas Mangeris","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Luis Galvan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lauren Boebert","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8399,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.15,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.8399,"Unaffiliated":0.005},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Colorado's 4th District is one of the state's most reliably Republican seats — roughly a 26-point partisan lean with Republicans outnumbering Democrats better than two to one in registration — and Boebert carried it by just under 12 points in 2024. Laubacher's $10M-plus grassroots fundraising and national-security profile make her a credible overperformer, but no public general-election polling exists to show the structural gap has closed.","takeaway":"Boebert is clearly favored in a strongly Republican district, though Laubacher's fundraising keeps a double-digit win from being assured.","key_reasons":["The district's deep Republican baseline (about R+26 lean, 2-to-1 GOP registration edge) gives Boebert a large structural floor.","Boebert already won this seat by just under 12 points in 2024, though that was below the district's partisan lean.","Laubacher's $10M+ fundraising and national Democratic attention could tighten the race, but no public polling or market signals exist to confirm a shift."],"uncertainty":"With no public general-election polling or prediction-market signals, the race turns on whether Laubacher's large fundraising edge and Boebert's narrower 2024 margin signal real erosion of the district's Republican lean, or whether the structural advantage simply reasserts itself.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-05T23:40:56.835650Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/colorado-4/","https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CO03165/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/lauren-boebert/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1088521","https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2026/04/16/lauren-boebert-fundraising-2026-election","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO04202/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/eileen-laubacher/donors","https://coloradonewsline.com/2025/10/17/campaign-cash-flows-colorado-democrats/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/09/25/vg-2026-eileen-laubacher-voter-guide/","https://www.eileenforcolorado.com/news/laubacher-campaign-raises-over-2-million-closing-with-over-25-million-cash-on-hand","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CO04215/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO04210/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6CO04210/1892129/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/02/02/colorado-candidates-fundraising/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO04277/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Libertarian":0.005,"Unaffiliated":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.84,"Democratic":0.15,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.16,"Libertarian":0.01,"Unaffiliated":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"co-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 5th Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:45.212331+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jeff Crank","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Jeff_Crank_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Jessica Killin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://coloradonewsline.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/JessicaKillin-1-scaled-e1780004768621-150x150.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Mitchell","party":"American Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher-Mitchell.PNG"},{"name":"Mark Elworth Jr.","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark-Elworth.jpg"},{"name":"Steven Fuller","party":"Unaffiliated","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steven_Fuller_Colorado.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jeff Crank","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.7885,"party_probabilities":{"American Constitution":0.0051,"Democratic":0.2022,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.004,"Republican":0.7885,"Unaffiliated":0.0001},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Colorado's 5th District has never elected a Democrat since it was created in 1972, and first-term incumbent Jeff Crank won it by about 14 points in 2024, giving him a substantial structural and incumbency advantage. The two listed Global Strategy Group surveys — ending November 3, 2025 (Crank 43, Killin 40) and July 21, 2026 (Crank 45, Killin 44) — show Crank narrowly ahead, and Jessica Killin's fundraising edge and heavy national investment make the race closer than the district's history alone would suggest.","takeaway":"Crank is favored to hold this historically Republican Colorado Springs seat, though Killin's fundraising and a near-tie internal poll keep it competitive.","key_reasons":["CO-05 is a deeply Republican, military-heavy El Paso County seat that has never sent a Democrat to Congress since 1972, and Crank won it by roughly 14 points in 2024.","The two listed Global Strategy Group surveys — ending November 3, 2025 (Crank 43, Killin 40) and July 21, 2026 (Crank 45, Killin 44) — show Crank narrowly ahead, but both are campaign-sponsored and months old, with no independent confirmation.","Killin's fundraising lead (about $3.14M to Crank's $2.18M through June 30, 2026) and heavy national 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Ryan","party":"Unity","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Meredith_Ryan_26_2026-05-11_180124.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jason Crow","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Jason Crow, who flipped this seat in 2018 and has won re-election comfortably since, faces a Republican nominee selected only after the original candidate withdrew, plus several minor-party and unaffiliated challengers with little or no campaign infrastructure. The Aurora-centered district has trended Democratic in recent cycles and is treated as solidly Democratic, with no public polling or competitive general-election signals observed.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T00:36:31.685887Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_6th_Congressional_District","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CO06229/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jason-crow/donors","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44044490&default=candidate","https://www.facebook.com/kyleclarknews/posts/new-co-gop-gov-candidate-victor-marx-is-soliciting-unlimited-contributions-appea/1624519852368162/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO06165/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO06132/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO06116/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"co-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 7th Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T01:46:04.266494+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brittany Pettersen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/_Brittany-Pettersen_.jpg"},{"name":"Tim Bennett","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/906745/906745.jpg"},{"name":"Susan Hall","party":"Unity","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Susan_Hall_20240817_020818.jpeg"},{"name":"Lawrence Clark","party":"American Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lawrence_Clark_2025.jpeg"},{"name":"Dan Sallis","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1523089331832844288/6n67nadl_400x400.jpg"},{"name":"Joe Krzeczkowski","party":"Unaffiliated","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joe_Krzeczkowski.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brittany Pettersen","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"American Constitution":0.001,"Democratic":0.97,"Libertarian":0.001,"Republican":0.025,"Unaffiliated":0.001,"Unity":0.002},"margin_estimate":16.5,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Colorado's 7th is a Democratic-leaning district (D+8) where incumbent Brittany Pettersen holds a commanding fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican Tim Bennett. With no public polling or market signals pointing to a competitive race, the fundamentals point to a comfortable Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Pettersen is heavily favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, with Bennett's limited resources leaving little path to an upset.","key_reasons":["The district's Democratic-leaning profile (D+8, anchored in the western Denver suburbs) gives the incumbent a structural advantage in a seat Democrats currently hold.","Pettersen's resource edge is lopsided: roughly $1.87M raised and about $1.1M cash on hand through June 30, 2026, versus Bennett's roughly $63K raised and about $1.3K cash on hand.","The challenger field is thin on demonstrated electoral strength, and minor-party and unaffiliated candidates on the ballot are unlikely to draw more than low single digits."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this race, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency, and the challenger's thin funding rather than direct head-to-head evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T01:46:01.422861Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/vote/generalCandidates.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00637215/","https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/CO/7","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO07122/","https://ballotpedia.org/Susan_Hall","https://www.cpr.org/2024/10/14/vg-2024-colorado-8th-congressional-district-minor-party-and-independent-candidates/","https://ballotpedia.org/Lawrence_Clark_(Colorado)","https://dankilo.com/about","https://dankilo.com/issues","https://ballotpedia.org/Dan_Sallis","https://pagosadailypost.com/2026/04/24/colorado-libertarian-party-fields-primary-election-candidates/","https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Krzeczkowski","https://joeforco.com/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Unity":0.002,"American Constitution":0.001,"Libertarian":0.001,"Unaffiliated":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.012,"Libertarian":0.001,"Unity":0.0005,"American Constitution":0.0005,"Unaffiliated":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Unity":0.003,"American Constitution":0.002,"Libertarian":0.003,"Unaffiliated":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.055}},{"id":"co-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Colorado's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House","jurisdiction":"Colorado's 8th Congressional District","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:07:25.184468+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gabe Evans","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://gabeevans.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/gabeevans.house.gov/files/evo-media-image/2024-11-15_ike_evans_gabe_0013_re_web_0.jpg"},{"name":"Manny Rutinel","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a864f1_b10da62c7db0420480246621334dc967~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_4800,h_6000,al_c,q_90/Rutinel%2CManny-H.jpg"},{"name":"Dave Wood","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Wood.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.5057,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.4853,"Democratic":0.5057,"Libertarian":0.009},"margin_estimate":1,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"low","rationale":"The only public general-election poll, McLaughlin and Associates' survey of 400 likely voters that ended Sept. 16, shows Gabe Evans at 48% and Manny Rutinel at 46% with 6% undecided, while a liquid prediction market priced Democrats near 84% in mid-September — two signals that point in opposite directions. With the district decided by less than a point in 2022 and 2024 and Evans holding a large cash-on-hand edge, neither party has a clear advantage.","takeaway":"A single narrow Evans poll and a Democratic-favoring market leave this competitive district a genuine toss-up.","key_reasons":["McLaughlin and Associates' poll of 400 likely voters that ended Sept. 16 puts Evans at 48% and Rutinel at 46% with 6% undecided — a narrow lead resting on a single survey.","Prediction market pricing in mid-September put Democratic odds near 84%, but that quote is roughly three weeks stale and conflicts with the polling.","Evans carries incumbency and a large cash-on-hand advantage (about $3.88M to Rutinel's $601K as of June 30, 2026) in a district that flipped to Republican control in 2024 by under a point."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Evans' incumbency and cash advantage outweigh a Democratic-favoring market signal, with only one 400-person poll and no fresher surveys to settle it.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:07:17.465310Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://coloradosun.com/2026/09/23/gabe-evans-manny-rutinel-poll/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO8-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO8-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CO08034/","https://gazette.com/2026/09/05/manny-rutinel-resigns-from-colorado-legislature-to-focus-on-congressional-race/","https://coloradonewsline.com/2025/07/21/early-fundraising-colorado-8th-district/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/timothy-gabriel-joseph-evans/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1324902","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CO08013/","https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jun/30/silicon-valley-donations-colorado-democratic-primary","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5235571-manny-rutinel-raised-1-million/","https://www.cpr.org/2026/08/26/independent-third-party-candidates-election/","https://ballotpedia.org/David_Wood_(Colorado)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=wood&state=CO&cycle=2026&office=H","https://www.fec.gov/data/committees/?search=dave+wood+for+congress&cycle=2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=CO08"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECO8-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECO8-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CO-8?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.845,"yes_bid":0.83,"yes_ask":0.86,"last_price":0.83,"volume":14973.56,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:19:07.157879Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO8-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECO8-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECO8-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for CO-8?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.16,"yes_bid":0.15,"yes_ask":0.17,"last_price":0.16,"volume":17493.83,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:19:09.903067Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECO8-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Republican":0.32,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.56,"Republican":0.43,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.54,"Democratic":0.43,"Libertarian":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.24}},{"id":"co-senate-2026","title":"2026 Colorado U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Colorado","state":"Colorado","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T08:06:50.342831+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Hickenlooper","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JohnHickenlooper.jpg"},{"name":"Mark Baisley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Baisley_20241022_115022.jpeg"},{"name":"Bob Chew","party":"Forward","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bob-headshot_20260602_175323_39531_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Christopher Baum","party":"Approval Voting","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Blake Huber","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Adam Withrow","party":"Unity","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Withrow.jfif"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Hickenlooper","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9702,"party_probabilities":{"Approval Voting":0.0005,"Democratic":0.9702,"Forward":0.003,"Libertarian":0.001,"Republican":0.025,"Unity":0.0003},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Colorado's Democratic-leaning statewide environment and Hickenlooper's incumbency, combined with a roughly $8.1M-to-$138K fundraising gap over Baisley, leave the Republican nominee with no evident path. No public general-election polling exists, but prediction markets heavily favor Democrats and the seat is widely seen as safely Democratic.","takeaway":"Hickenlooper is heavily favored to hold Colorado's Democratic-held Senate seat against Baisley.","key_reasons":["Hickenlooper is an incumbent and former two-term governor with a strong statewide profile in a state that leans Democratic, and he won his 2020 Senate race by roughly 9 points.","He holds a lopsided resource advantage: about $8.1M raised and $2.08M cash on hand versus Baisley's roughly $138K raised and $50K cash on hand.","Prediction markets heavily favor Democrats, and no public general-election polling shows a competitive signal."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, and the market readings date to mid-September; self-funded Forward Party candidate Bob Chew (~$1.3M) could affect vote shares without plausibly winning.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T08:06:44.721886Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATECO-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATECO-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0CO00575/","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/07/17/democrat-john-hickenlooper-hauls-in-1-3-million-in-2nd-quarter-in-colorados-u-s-senate-race/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/john-hickenlooper/us_congress/summary?mpid=1211713","https://gazette.com/2026/07/17/democrat-john-hickenlooper-hauls-in-1-3-million-in-2nd-quarter-in-colorados-u-s-senate-race/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00507/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6451091&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00549/","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/07/14/forward-party-nominee-for-colorados-u-s-senate-seat-puts-1-1-million-into-his-campaign/","https://gazette.com/2026/07/14/forward-party-nominee-for-colorados-u-s-senate-seat-puts-1-1-million-into-his-campaign/","https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2026/07/forward-party-nominee-bob-chew-plans-1-1-million-investment-in-colorado-senate-campaign/","https://ballotpedia.org/Adam_Withrow","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6CO00564/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CO03324/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATECO-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATECO-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.988,"yes_bid":0.98,"yes_ask":0.996,"last_price":0.98,"volume":12600.79,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:43.230836Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATECO-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATECO-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATECO-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.009,"yes_bid":0.005,"yes_ask":0.013,"last_price":0.013,"volume":18838.09,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:15.811107Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATECO-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Forward":0.003,"Libertarian":0.001,"Approval Voting":0.0005,"Unity":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.987,"Republican":0.011,"Forward":0.001,"Approval Voting":0.0003,"Libertarian":0.0004,"Unity":0.0003},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Forward":0.003,"Approval Voting":0.001,"Libertarian":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.017}},{"id":"ct-governor-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut Governor Election","office":"Governor of Connecticut","jurisdiction":"Connecticut","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T17:05:05.965151+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ned Lamont","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ned_Lamont_20240913_045834.jpg"},{"name":"Ryan Fazio","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RyanFazio.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ned Lamont","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Two-term Democratic incumbent Ned Lamont leads Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio in every recent general-election poll, with margins running from about 7 points (co/efficient, 48-41) to 20 points (Sacred Heart, 49.7-29.5), and Quinnipiac and UNH both at 55-38 in mid-September. Connecticut's Democratic-leaning electorate, Lamont's incumbency and self-funding capacity, and Fazio's need to overcome that structural gap all point to a Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Lamont is clearly favored for a third term, leading Fazio by roughly 7 to 20 points in recent polling.","key_reasons":["Lamont has led in all six general-election polls, with September surveys showing leads of 7 to 17 points and a late-July Sacred Heart poll showing a 20-point edge.","Connecticut is a Democratic-leaning state and Lamont is a two-term incumbent with a large self-funding advantage and labor endorsements.","Fazio has public financing and an Independent ballot line, but no current polling evidence shows him closing the gap."],"uncertainty":"The wide spread across polls (roughly 7 to 20 points) and Fazio's roughly $15.4 million public-financing grant plus Independent ballot line leave room for a closer finish than the largest leads suggest.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T17:04:58.966531Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://coefficient.org/our-work/connecticut-governor-general-election-sep-2026/","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2009&context=survey_center_polls","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3966","https://www.sacredheart.edu/news-room/news-listing/shu-poll-lamont-holds-lead-as-connecticut-voters-signal-growing-desire-for-change/","https://www.wfsb.com/2026/08/03/exclusive-poll-how-voters-feel-about-candidates-connecticuts-race-governor/","https://ctnewsjunkie.com/2026/07/02/lamont-still-leads-elliott-poll-shows","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCT-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCT-26-R","https://ctmirror.org/2026/07/13/josh-elliot-public-financing-ned-lamont-campaign-donations/","https://www.ctinsider.com/election/article/ct-governor-campaign-spending-lamont-fazio-elliott-22343504.php","https://www.ctpost.com/connecticut/article/governor-lamont-contributions-personal-3-million-22340981.php","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=7443030","https://www.courant.com/2025/10/09/fazio-breaks-fundraising-record-but-stewart-has-more-in-race-for-ct-governor/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCT-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCT-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Connecticut","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.967,"yes_bid":0.951,"yes_ask":0.983,"last_price":0.986,"volume":15993.54,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:09.280133Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCT-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYCT-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYCT-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Connecticut","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0455,"yes_bid":0.029,"yes_ask":0.062,"last_price":0.044,"volume":26984.67,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:10.393449Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYCT-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ct-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Connecticut's 1st Congressional District","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T23:37:00.669125+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Luke Bronin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Luke_Bronin.jpeg"},{"name":"Amy Chai","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Amy_Chai_2025.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Luke Bronin","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Connecticut's 1st District is a reliably Democratic, Hartford-centered seat, and Democratic nominee Luke Bronin is heavily favored to hold it for the party. No general election polling exists, but the district's strong Democratic lean and Bronin's decisive primary win (53.5%) support a safe Democratic forecast.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T02:10:28.981530Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://votevets.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CT-01-Primary-Interested-Parties-Memo-F05.26.26.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT01206/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/luke-bronin/donors","https://ctmirror.org/2026/07/16/bronin-larson-rake-in-money-for-primary-whos-donating-to-them/","https://www.ctpublic.org/news/2026-08-06/bronin-larson-outside-spending-pac-congress-ct","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CT03102/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/amy-chai","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CT"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ct-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Connecticut's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:11:40.206458+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Courtney","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joe_Courtney.jpg"},{"name":"George Austin","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/George_austin_26_2026-07-06_155555.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joe Courtney","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Joe Courtney has held Connecticut's 2nd District since 2007 and won re-election by 16 points in 2024, while Republican challenger George Austin has no prior elected office and has funded most of his campaign through personal loans. With no public polling, Courtney's incumbency, the district's Democratic lean, and Austin's limited grassroots support point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T04:45:41.182136Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00002425","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT02196/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/joe-courtney/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CT02112/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ct-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Connecticut's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:12:39.639686+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rosa L. DeLauro","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rosa_L._Delauro.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Lancia","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher_Lancia_20260114_072231.jpeg"},{"name":"Andrew Rice","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrew_Rice_2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rosa L. DeLauro","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"DeLauro has represented this strongly Democratic New Haven-based district since 1991, and the seat has not elected a Republican since 1980. With no public polling and a Republican challenger who has raised only ~$14.6K, structural and financial advantages point to a decisive Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:56:28.299875Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT03178/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/connecticut-3/forecast/","https://www.newhavenindependent.org/2025/10/17/murphy-campaign-war-chest-nears-11m/","https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cycle=2024&order=asc&page=10&sort=D&zip=06405","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CT","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT03194/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CT03072/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ct-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Connecticut's 4th Congressional District","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T16:02:06.899054+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim Himes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Jim_Himes_Official_Portrait%2C_117th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg?itok=xk3P01r2"},{"name":"Michael Ted Goldstein","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MichaelGoldstein2024.jpg"},{"name":"Damon Lawrence Cerreta","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.nancyonnorwalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cerreta.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Himes","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This heavily Democratic Fairfield County district, combined with nine-term incumbent Jim Himes's strong incumbency and fundraising advantage, makes a Democratic hold overwhelmingly likely. The Republican nominee lost to Himes in 2024, has minimal funding, and an independent further fragments the opposition.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T15:47:33.859085Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/CT","https://ctmirror.org/2026/07/27/ct-primary-election-2026-voter-guide/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CT04172/","https://ctmirror.org/2019/05/27/wall-street-lawyers-insurance-and-defense-top-donors-to-ct-lawmakers/","https://www.notus.org/democrats/how-corporate-pac-money-gets-to-democrats-who-swore-it-off","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=CT04","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT04143/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/connecticut-district-4-republican-primary/","https://ctmirror.org/2026/08/07/gop-congressional-hopefuls-focus-on-issues-and-campaign-styles/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CT04237/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ct-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Connecticut's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Connecticut's 5th Congressional District","state":"Connecticut","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T22:12:51.804663+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jahana Hayes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jahana_Hayes.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Shea","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Shea_20260422_050800.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jahana Hayes","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Jahana Hayes holds a large fundraising edge and a district that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, while Chris Shea is a first-time candidate without prior name recognition or comparable resources. No public general-election polling has been released, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%.","takeaway":"Hayes is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of public polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and resources: Hayes reported about $1.29M in receipts through mid-2026 versus roughly $312K for Shea, a substantial financial advantage.","District lean: Hayes won this competitive-leaning seat with 53.4% in 2024 and 50.4% in 2022, and the seat is currently Democratic-held.","Market signal: prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%, consistent with a clear Democratic advantage."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, and the prediction-market readings come from thin-volume contracts, so the size of Hayes's likely margin is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:12:48.834868Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECT5-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECT5-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut%27s_5th_Congressional_District","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jahana-hayes/summary?cid=N00043421","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8CT05245/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jahana-hayes/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ct-5/compare/chris-shea-vs-jahana-hayes","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6CT05231/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ct-5/general","https://ctmirror.org/2026/01/22/chris-shea-gop-ct-5th-congressional-district/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECT5-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSECT5-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for CT-5?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9624999999999999,"yes_bid":0.951,"yes_ask":0.974,"last_price":0.966,"volume":5671.63,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:19:38.893913Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECT5-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSECT5-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSECT5-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for CT-5?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0345,"yes_bid":0.021,"yes_ask":0.048,"last_price":0.026,"volume":1789.95,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:03:31.061338Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSECT5-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"de-house-2026","title":"2026 Delaware's At-Large Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Delaware's At-Large Congressional District","state":"Delaware","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:35:16.789204+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sarah McBride","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/Representative_Sarah_McBride_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Joseph Arminio","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sarah McBride","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Delaware's at-large House seat has been Democratic since 2010, and first-term Rep. Sarah McBride won it by roughly 16 points in 2024 while now holding about $5.06 million raised against roughly $6,600 for Republican nominee Joseph Arminio. With no public general-election polling, the case rests on the state's partisan lean, incumbency, and a resource gap that leaves the challenger without a funded path.","takeaway":"McBride is overwhelmingly favored to hold Delaware's at-large House seat, with no public polling and a lopsided fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Delaware's at-large seat has been held by Democrats since 2010, and McBride won it in 2024 with 57.9% of the vote, a roughly 16-point margin.","McBride holds an overwhelming financial advantage, about $5.06 million raised and roughly $2.7 million cash on hand through late August 2026, compared with about $6,600 reported by Arminio's committee.","Arminio is a first-time federal candidate with no legislative record or funding base, and no public general-election polling has been published to suggest a competitive race."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, so the size of the Democratic margin is inferred from the state's partisan baseline, incumbency, and the fundraising gap rather than measured directly.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:35:10.418281Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.delaware.gov/candidates/candidatelist/genl_fcddt_2026.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4DE00045/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/sarah-mcbride/us_congress/pacs?cycle=2026&display=candidate&mpid=1315905","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/sarah-mcbride","https://19thnews.org/2023/12/sarah-mcbride-congress-first-trans-fundraising-endorsements/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6DE01121/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/DE"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.995,"Republican":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.075}},{"id":"de-senate-2026","title":"2026 Delaware U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Delaware","state":"Delaware","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-19T03:19:58.029900+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Coons","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Andrew_Coons.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Katz","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael-Katz.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Coons","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9755,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9755,"Republican":0.0245},"margin_estimate":20.5,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Delaware's heavily Democratic lean (D+8 PVI; Harris +15 in 2024) and Coons's incumbency and commanding financial edge make this race uncompetitive. Katz's crossover profile as a former Democratic state senator is unlikely to overcome the state's baseline, and no polling or market signal suggests a competitive contest.","takeaway":"Chris Coons is heavily favored to win a third full term in Delaware's safely Democratic Senate seat.","key_reasons":["Delaware's heavily Democratic baseline (D+8 PVI; Harris +15 in 2024) makes a Republican Senate upset highly unlikely.","Coons, the two-term incumbent seeking a third full term, holds a commanding financial edge ($4.71M cash on hand vs. Katz's ~$70K raised).","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 98–99%, with no public polling showing a competitive race."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and Katz's crossover appeal as a former Democratic state senator is the main — but likely insufficient — source of uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-19T03:19:54.905827Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEDE-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEDE-26-R","https://pollingsource.com/senate/DE","https://elections.delaware.gov/candidates/candidatelist/genl_fcddt_2026.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/chris-coons/summary?cid=N00031820","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00475392/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/DE","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/chris-coons/us_congress/industries?mpid=1176235","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6DE00206/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=4631689&default=candidate"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEDE-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEDE-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Delaware?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.987,"yes_bid":0.984,"yes_ask":0.99,"last_price":0.982,"volume":4742.29,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-10T20:33:24.287353Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEDE-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEDE-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEDE-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Delaware?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.014,"yes_bid":0.012,"yes_ask":0.016,"last_price":0.016,"volume":8942.03,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-10T20:33:24.287353Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEDE-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"fl-governor-2026","title":"2026 Florida Governor Election","office":"Governor of Florida","jurisdiction":"Florida","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:05:49.494756+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Byron Donalds","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Rep._Byron_Donalds_official_photo%2C_117th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"David Jolly","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/David_Jolly_%283x4%29.jpg"},{"name":"Scott Jewett","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Scott_Jewett_20250429_112600.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Byron Donalds","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.75,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.24,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.75},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Byron Donalds leads in most recent statewide surveys and holds a lopsided fundraising and airtime advantage in a state Republicans have won in every gubernatorial contest since 1998. David Jolly's near-tie showings in the St. Pete Polls and YouGov surveys, and a Change Research poll that put him ahead, keep meaningful Democratic upside in an open-seat race.","takeaway":"Republicans remain favored to hold Florida's open governorship, with Byron Donalds ahead in most recent statewide polling.","key_reasons":["Statewide polling mostly favors Donalds but with wide variance: Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute +10, Stetson University +12, Mason-Dixon +5 and +7, YouGov +2, St. Pete Polls +0.1, while Change Research showed Jolly +2.","Donalds and an aligned committee had raised roughly $134 million as of late September versus about $16.6 million for Jolly, giving Republicans a large paid-communication edge.","Florida's long Republican streak in gubernatorial elections and the open-seat, Republican-held status of the office favor the GOP, with prediction markets pricing Republicans near 77%."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Donalds' fundraising and airtime advantage outweighs a polling picture that ranges from a near-tie to a double-digit lead, with wide survey variance and limited general-election polling.","based_on_poll_count":8,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T16:05:41.963039Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf","https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October7_K7ZU3GA.pdf","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823576-poll-governors-race-a-toss-up-as-byron-donalds-cant-close-the-deal-with-trump-voters/","https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-28-jolly-maintains-lead-in-florida-governors-race","https://www.nbcmiami.com/elections/florida-poll/3869071/","https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/cpor-sept.-2026-poll-final.pdf","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/10/10/florida-polls-show-republicans-lead-democrats-in-governor-and-senate-races-but-contests-remain-close/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYFL-26-R","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN&OfficeCode=GOV","https://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_September17_G7V29XU6.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYFL-26-D","https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/florida-governor-race-byron-donalds-david-jolly","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/byron-donalds/us_congress/summary?mpid=1084818","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL14186/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/805267-byron-donalds-surpasses-90m-in-total-fundraising-for-governors-race/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/789206-is-david-jolly-riding-an-off-shore-blue-wave-his-q1-fundraising-suggests-momentum-is-building/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL13101/","https://floridaphoenix.com/briefs/david-jolly-campaign-says-hes-raised-3-million-plus-so-far-in-race-for-governor/","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2026/06/11/financing-the-governors-race-00958335","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/david-jolly/us_congress/summary?mpid=1077130","https://www.transparencyusa.org/fl/candidate/scott-jewett","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/campaign-finance/contributions/","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=84076","https://www.transparencyusa.org/fl/race/governor-of-florida-76660","https://www.floridadonortrack.com/","https://www.scottjewett.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYFL-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYFL-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.235,"yes_bid":0.23,"yes_ask":0.24,"last_price":0.24,"volume":839893.23,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:12.905807Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYFL-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYFL-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYFL-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.775,"yes_bid":0.77,"yes_ask":0.78,"last_price":0.78,"volume":1758516.93,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:55.452127Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYFL-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.75,"Democratic":0.24,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.8,"Democratic":0.19,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.68,"Democratic":0.3,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"fl-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 1st Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:56:41.544717+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jimmy Patronis","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jimmy_Patronis.jpg"},{"name":"Gay Valimont","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gay2026Valimont.jpg"},{"name":"Tyler Davis","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jimmy Patronis","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Other":0.005},"margin_estimate":26,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Florida's 1st is one of the most Republican-leaning districts in the country (roughly 53% GOP registration and ~68% Trump in 2024), and incumbent Jimmy Patronis decisively won the 2025 special election and the August 2026 primary. Democrat Gay Valimont already lost to Patronis by double digits in April 2025, and NPA candidate Tyler Davis has no comparable campaign infrastructure.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:56:31.452917Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL01390/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jimmy-patronis?mpid=1356845","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814909-jimmy-patronis-sails-through-gop-primary-as-he-seeks-full-term-representing-cd-1/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/01/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL01197/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/gay-valimont/donors","https://www.pnj.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/03/15/gay-valimont-has-town-hall-in-race-against-jimmy-patronis/82407976007/","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5226177-florida-chief-financial-officer-jimmy-patronis/","https://www.tylerdavisforcongress.com/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tyler-davis"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:11:59.377311+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Amanda Green","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Amanda_Green_2026_2026-05-12_225821.jpg"},{"name":"Austin Rogers","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Austin_Rogers_20260204_021830.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Austin Rogers","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.18,"Republican":0.82},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"This open seat leans solidly Republican, and the GOP has won seven of the last eight congressional contests in the district, giving Austin Rogers a strong structural edge. Rogers also holds a decisive resource advantage over Amanda Green, and with no general-election polling available, fundamentals and candidate strength drive the forecast.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold this open, solidly Republican North Florida seat, with Austin Rogers the likely winner.","key_reasons":["The district is solidly Republican in partisan lean, and Republicans have won seven of the last eight congressional contests here.","Rogers holds a major resource edge: roughly $1.01M raised with ~$387K cash on hand plus a $500K super PAC, versus Green's ~$28K cash on hand.","No general-election polling exists between Green and Rogers, so the GOP's structural and financial advantages dominate the assessment."],"uncertainty":"There is no general-election polling, and Rogers' low-share primary win plus Green's Tallahassee-based coalition leave a modest Democratic upset chance in this open seat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:11:53.906145Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/813488-new-poll-shows-austin-rogers-up-10-in-cd-2-with-a-week-to-go-keith-gross-underwater/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/812292-austin-rogers-leads-gop-field-in-new-cd-2-poll/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/810884-internal-shows-austin-rogers-with-slight-lead-on-keith-gross-in-cd-2/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/812137-internal-poll-shows-keith-gross-with-strong-lead-as-cd-2-republican-primary-nears/","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL02299/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/amanda-green","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/791256-amanda-marie-green-raises-more-than-100k-in-first-quarter-of-2026/","https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/24/millions-raised-and-spent-in-battle-for-neal-dunns-congressional-seat/91023467007/","https://franklincounty.news/2026/07/21/money-flows-into-2nd-district-congressional-race/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL02331/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/austin-rogers/about","https://floridianpress.com/2026/04/austin-rogers-raises-725k-for-congressional-war-chest/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/781316-super-pac-supporting-austin-rogers-announces-500k-haul/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.18,"Republican":0.82},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"fl-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:54:00.607784+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kat Cammack","party":"Republican Party","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KatCammack.jpg"},{"name":"Seth Harp","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Seth_Harp.jpg"},{"name":"Mike Klein","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://mikeklein4congress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/I-LIKE-MIKE.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kat Cammack","predicted_winner_party":"Republican Party","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Kat Cammack has won this reliably Republican north-central Florida district by wide margins in 2022 and 2024, faced no primary opposition, and holds a roughly 50-to-1 fundraising advantage over her general-election opponents. With no public polling available, the district's strong partisan lean and Cammack's incumbency make Republican retention highly probable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:53:44.769068Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0FL03175/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL03099/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/kat-cammack","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Cammack-C001039/donors","https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/florida-congressional-district-3-election-results","https://ballotpedia.org/Seth_Harp_(Florida)","https://mikeklein4congress.com/","https://independentveteransofamerica.org/candidates/mike-klein/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 4th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-22T21:17:10.367169+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Aaron Bean","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Aaron_Bean.jpg"},{"name":"LaShonda Holloway","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lashonda_Holloway.JPG"},{"name":"Mike Sell","party":"Florida Forward Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MikeSellFL04_20260716_030427_31400_1.jpg"},{"name":"Todd Schaefer","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Aaron Bean","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Bean is a two-term incumbent in a district Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, with a dominant fundraising edge (~$2.16M vs. ~$27K) and no public general-election polling suggesting competitiveness. Holloway's underfunded campaign and the presence of two minor-party candidates leave Republicans with an overwhelming advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-22T21:16:55.094715Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/808061-poll-l-j-holloway-holds-30-point-edge-in-cd-4-democratic-primary/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814476-cd4-dem-result-2026/","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL05193/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL04211/","https://www.trackaipac.com/congress","https://www.democracyunderfire.org/who-funds-them-us","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/812667-heated-race-between-democrats-looking-to-challenge-aaron-bean-hurtles-toward-conclusion/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Congressman+Aaron+Bean+Advocates+for+Healthcare+Reform+at+Hearing+on+Medical+Workforce+Challenges","https://www.hollowayforcongress.com/about-lj","https://www.news4jax.com/voters-guide/2026/07/31/2026-voters-guide-floridas-4th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL04246/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL","https://www.mikesell.org/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL04068/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/todd-schaefer"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 5th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T13:53:44.843834+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Rutherford","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Rutherford_John_119th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Rachel Grage","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RachelGrage26.jpeg"},{"name":"William Upham","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://uphamforcongress.com/Upham03383.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Rutherford","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":24,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"FL-05 is a strongly Republican Northeast Florida district, and incumbent John Rutherford — a former Jacksonville sheriff first elected in 2016 — is heavily favored after winning his August primary with about 68%. With no public polling, the district's GOP lean, incumbency, and a roughly 2.7-to-1 fundraising edge over Democrat Rachel Grage point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T13:53:24.657494Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/05/2026/","https://floridatrib.org/2026/08/18/rachel-grage-wins-democratic-primary-in-floridas-5th-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL05250/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL04105/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/john-rutherford-fl","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/5","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/rachelgrage","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rachel-grage/about/5dbe8082-b6bb-4521-be4e-189c72fe989f","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL05292/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/william-upham/about/a8881ebd-a8b2-4054-ac68-bf935759f4cc"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"Florida's 6th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T17:03:42.937767+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Randy Fine","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Randy_Fine.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Yonce","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Yonce_20250822_020902.jpeg"},{"name":"Andrew Parrott","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrew_Parrott_20241210_123816.jpeg"},{"name":"Michael Gist","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.news-journalonline.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/07/13/NDNJ/90908521007-michael-gist-florida-7th.jpg?width=436&height=610&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp"},{"name":"Alec Pavlik","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Randy Fine","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.105,"Libertarian":0.005,"No Party Affiliation":0.01,"Republican":0.88},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Florida's 6th is a solidly Republican district where incumbent Randy Fine holds a commanding resource edge — roughly $4.29M raised plus about $3.7M in supportive outside spending against Eric Yonce's roughly $326K — and no public polling shows a competitive race. The strongest Democratic signal remains the 42.7% share in the April 2025 special election, which still left the Republican ahead by a wide margin.","takeaway":"Fine is clearly favored to hold this solidly Republican seat, with Yonce's underfunded challenge unlikely to close the gap.","key_reasons":["The district is solidly Republican and has favored Republican candidates in recent cycles; Fine won the April 2025 special election by a wide margin even as the Democratic share reached 42.7%.","Fine's financial advantage is overwhelming: about $4.29M raised plus roughly $3.7M in supportive outside spending, versus Yonce's roughly $326K raised and about $34K cash on hand.","Fine is the incumbent with prior Florida House and Senate service, while Yonce is a first-time candidate who emerged from a fractured Democratic primary with 32.1% and no public polling indicates a close general election."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the general election exists, and the relatively strong 2025 Democratic special-election showing is the main reason a closer-than-expected margin cannot be ruled out.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T17:03:38.378672Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL06258/","https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/florida-us-house-6-general-election/forecast","https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2026/tables/congressional/ConCand8g_2025_6m.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL06340/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL06316/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL","https://ballotpedia.org/Andrew_Parrott","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=parrott&state=FL&cycle=2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Michael_Gist","https://www.alecpavlik.com/finanical-disclosure","https://ballotpedia.org/Alec_Pavlik"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Libertarian":0.005,"No Party Affiliation":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.105,"Libertarian":0.005,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.14,"Libertarian":0.03,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"fl-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 7th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:07:41.658014+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bale Dalton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bale_Dalton_20260301_122923.jpg"},{"name":"Ryan Elijah","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ryan_Elijah_20260509_104815.jpeg"},{"name":"Christopher Dennison","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.news-journalonline.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/07/17/NDNJ/90961447007-christopher-dennison.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ryan Elijah","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.65,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.3341,"Libertarian":0.0159},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"The open seat's Republican lean gives Ryan Elijah a modest edge, and no general-election polling of the current field exists to test either nominee. Bale Dalton's large fundraising advantage and DCCC Red to Blue backing make the race genuinely competitive, but the district's partisan tilt is the tiebreaker.","takeaway":"Republicans are modest favorites in this open, Republican-leaning Orlando-area seat, though Dalton's fundraising keeps it competitive.","key_reasons":["The district covering Seminole County and southern Volusia County leans Republican, giving the GOP nominee a baseline advantage in an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot.","Dalton is the field's top fundraiser (about $1.38 million in total receipts through July 29, 2026, versus roughly $356,000 for Elijah, much of it a candidate loan) and carries DCCC Red to Blue, VoteVets and 314 Action support, making this a credible Democratic challenge.","Elijah enters the general election with local name identification as a former Orlando TV anchor after defeating an incumbent in the August 18 primary, while Libertarian Christopher Dennison's roughly $11,000 campaign is unlikely to alter the two-party contest."],"uncertainty":"No general-election poll of Dalton, Elijah or Dennison has been published, so the race turns on whether Dalton's fundraising and military/NASA profile can overcome the district's Republican lean and recent Democratic underperformance in Florida.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:07:36.301826Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL07215/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/808198-bale-dalton-surpasses-1-2m-in-fundraising-to-flip-cory-mills-seat/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/788714-bale-dalton-fundraising-rockets-to-nearly-700k-in-bid-to-unseat-cory-mills/","https://www.314action.org/news/314-action-fund-endorses-bale-dalton-for-floridas-7th-congressional-district/","https://dccc.org/bale-dalton-added-to-dcccs-coveted-red-to-blue-program/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL07231/","https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/07/31/2026-voters-guide-ryan-elijah-for-us-house-district-7/","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/16/house-dem-challengers-are-printing-money-01000665","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/812276-ryan-elijah-says-hes-lived-in-florida-for-20-years-but-he-ran-for-congress-in-indiana-in-2010/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL07249/","https://themidtermproject.org/candidates/dennison-christopher-allen","https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/213/202606029870359213/202606029870359213.pdf"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.55,"Democratic":0.44,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.33,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.42,"Republican":0.56,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"fl-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 8th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T21:03:22.680270+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Haridopolos","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Haridopolos.jpg"},{"name":"Jennifer Jenkins","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jennifer_Jenkins_20260113_034816.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Haridopolos","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.92,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.08},"margin_estimate":11.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Haridopolos leads the initial ballot in both public general-election surveys and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage in a district Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2024. The informed-ballot results diverge, but the district's Republican lean and incumbency point to a comfortable win.","takeaway":"Haridopolos is strongly favored to hold this Republican-leaning Space Coast seat, with a double-digit margin plausible.","key_reasons":["The district remains strongly Republican — Trump carried it by more than 16 points in 2024, and the 2026 redraw shifted it only slightly leftward.","Both public general-election polls show Haridopolos ahead by roughly 9 points on the initial ballot (51-42 and 44-35), with the informed-ballot divergence reflecting survey framing rather than a Jenkins lead.","Haridopolos holds a substantial resource edge: about $1.8M raised and $888K cash on hand versus roughly $726K raised and $108K cash on hand for Jenkins."],"uncertainty":"Only two public general-election polls exist, one without a published sample size, and their informed-ballot results point in opposite directions, so the size of the margin is less certain than the winner.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T21:03:19.021077Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/810609-mike-haridopolos-dominates-informed-ballot-reaches-55-in-new-cd-8-poll/","https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/07/30/Public-Policy-Polling/Jennifer-Jenkins-Florida--8-2026-07-17-2026-07-18","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL08168/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-haridopolos/summary","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/807778-mike-haridopolos-brings-total-fundraising-past-2-3m-as-he-seeks-second-term-in-cd-8/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/747745-mike-haridopolos-raises-another-507k-for-re-election-effort-in-cd-8/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/817155-proven-pro-growth-voice-u-s-chamber-endorses-mike-haridopolos-re-election/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL06399/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00918474/","https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-central-florida-candidates/","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"fl-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 9th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:41.284878+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Darren Soto","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Darren_Soto_115th_Congress_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Dan Green","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/957130/957130.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dan Green","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.74,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.74,"Democratic":0.26},"margin_estimate":6,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"The redrawn 9th District moved from a seat Kamala Harris carried in 2024 to one Donald Trump would have won by a wide margin, giving Republican nominee Dan Green a structural edge over incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Soto's incumbency, name recognition and $2.16M raised with $1.19M cash on hand keep the race live, but the lone public survey — a 41–41 tie from late August — is small-sample and months old.","takeaway":"Republicans are favored to flip Florida's 9th District, though Soto's incumbency keeps it competitive.","key_reasons":["The new boundaries turned a Harris-won seat into one Trump would have carried by a wide margin, a partisan lean that dominates down-ballot House races.","Soto's incumbency, high name ID and $2.16M raised ($1.19M cash on hand) keep him competitive and explain the tied late-August survey.","Green's campaign is almost entirely self-funded ($1.14M personal loan, ~$158K in outside contributions) and he emerged from a fractured seven-candidate primary with 25.4%, capping his upside."],"uncertainty":"Only one small-sample poll (41–41, ended Aug. 30) is available and no newer public survey exists, so the race turns on whether the redrawn district's Republican lean outweighs Soto's incumbency and cash advantage.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:29.921604Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/818398-internal-poll-shows-darren-soto-tied-with-dan-green-in-battleground-cd-9/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL09179/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/darren-soto-fl","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/815103-dan-green-emerges-as-gop-nominee-who-will-face-darren-soto-in-cd-9/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Darren+Soto+Leads+Letter+Urging+EPA+Action+on+Puerto+Rico+Drinking+Water+Emergency","https://dccc.org/the-case-against-dan-green/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL09294/","https://flvoicenews.com/trump-appointee-dan-green-posts-1-14-million-fundraising-haul-in-first-two-weeks-of-congressional-bid/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.37,"Republican":0.63},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.76,"Democratic":0.24},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.35,"Republican":0.65},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"fl-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 10th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"uncontested","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T00:57:06.430298+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maxwell Alejandro Frost","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MF_Offical_Headshot_2023.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maxwell Alejandro Frost","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":1,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1,"Republican":0,"Other":0},"margin_estimate":100,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost is the only candidate who qualified, and both the August 18 primary and November 3 general election were canceled, guaranteeing his re-election to a third term. The Orlando-centered district (Cook PVI: D+13) is strongly Democratic and was preserved in the 2026 map, but the outcome is determined by the absence of any opponent rather than district lean.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T00:56:53.737991Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/maxwell-frost/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00786822/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/maxwell-frost-fl","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Maxwell+Frost+just+disclosed+%24551.9K+of+new+fundraising","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Maxwell+Frost+just+disclosed+%24100.9K+of+new+fundraising"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 11th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:46.137061+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Strada","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-3051_JPG_20260722_152519_47027_1.jpeg"},{"name":"James Pericola","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Screenshot-2026-07-15-at-5_58_30___PM_20260715_221700_45848_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Ralph Groves","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/66f715b27fc7997f1c4ff996/6942f19d93f8bcd49ab3586b_Ralph%20Groves%20Headshot%20TINY.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joe Strada","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.77,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.22,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.77},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This open Central Florida seat leans Republican on fundamentals, and Joe Strada's $5 million self-funding plus endorsements from Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan give him a resource and name-recognition edge over James Pericola, whose fundraising is undisclosed. The only public head-to-head poll, an MDW Communications survey ending July 29, 2026, found the race tied 42-42, so the advantage is real but not commanding.","takeaway":"Strada is favored in this Republican-leaning open seat, though a July tie keeps the race competitive.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican-leaning fundamentals (about R+7 and a 57% Trump vote in 2024) favor Strada in an open-seat general election.","Strada's $5 million self-loan and endorsements from Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan give him a large resource and visibility edge over Pericola, whose fundraising figures are not publicly documented.","The lone public head-to-head poll, MDW Communications' July 28-29 survey, showed a 42-42 tie, keeping the race from being a lock despite the district lean."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Strada's resource and district-lean advantage outweighs the July 42-42 tie, with no public polling after late July and no disclosed fundraising totals for Pericola.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:25.208213Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/811237-poll-shows-james-pericola-leading-cd-11-dem-field-in-potential-dead-heat-with-joe-strada/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL11332/","https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-central-florida-candidates/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL11357/","https://www.facebook.com/barbie.harden.hall/posts/huge-fundraising-number-for-just-3-weeks-in-fl-11-congratulations-james-pericola/122272700624147156/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.77,"Democratic":0.22,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.72,"Democratic":0.27,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.21,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"fl-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 12th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T17:02:27.778473+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gus Bilirakis","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gus_M._Bilirakis.jpg"},{"name":"Kimberly Overman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kimberly_Overman_20250813_083549.jpg"},{"name":"Branden Scrivener","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Branden2026Scrivener.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gus Bilirakis","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8799,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.11,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.01,"Republican":0.8799},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Republicans hold a clear advantage in Florida's 12th, where incumbent Rep. Gus Bilirakis has long-standing name recognition, a Trump endorsement, and roughly $554,000 cash on hand against Democrat Kimberly Overman's roughly $5,000. The mid-decade redistricting added Hillsborough County territory and made the seat more competitive on paper, but no public polling or market signal points to a close general election.","takeaway":"Bilirakis is favored to hold Florida's 12th District, with incumbency and a large fundraising edge outweighing the redrawn, more competitive lines.","key_reasons":["Bilirakis is a long-serving Republican incumbent with established name recognition in a district that still leans Republican, even after the redrawn boundaries added Hillsborough County territory.","Bilirakis reported about $554,000 cash on hand versus roughly $5,000 for Overman, a resource gap that limits the Democratic nominee's ability to build name identification down the stretch.","No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this race, so the assessment rests on incumbency, partisan lean, and campaign resources rather than measured vote share."],"uncertainty":"With no public polling and newly redrawn boundaries that add Hillsborough County voters, the true size of Bilirakis's advantage is uncertain, and the race turns on whether his incumbency and fundraising edge outweigh the district's shifted, more competitive lines.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T17:02:24.121693Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00408534/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL15200/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/12/2026/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/815521-despite-financial-disadvantage-kimberly-overman-wins-democratic-primary-to-face-gus-bilirakis-in-cd-12/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL12231/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"No Party Affiliation":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"fl-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"Florida's 13th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:06:07.143903+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Anna Paulina Luna","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Anna_Paula_Luna.jpg"},{"name":"Leela Gray","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Leela_Gray_20260317_052703.jpg"},{"name":"Tony D'Arrigo","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TonyDArrigo.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Anna Paulina Luna","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.6969,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.2929,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.0101,"Republican":0.6969},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"The 2026 redraw moved St. Petersburg's Democratic core out of the district and extended it north into Pasco County, making the seat more Republican than the one Luna carried in 2022 and 2024, and she adds incumbency plus a large fundraising edge. August polling is split — Hart Research Associates (House Majority PAC) shows Gray +5, while Fabrizio, Lee & Associates has Luna +8 and GQR has Luna +3 — netting to a modest Republican advantage.","takeaway":"Luna is favored to hold this redrawn, Republican-leaning seat, though Gray's fundraising and mixed August polling keep the race competitive.","key_reasons":["New boundaries remove the Democratic core of St. Petersburg and add Republican-leaning Pasco County, shifting the district rightward.","Luna has incumbency, a 99% Trump-alignment voting record, and roughly $3.2 million in receipts versus Gray's roughly $1.4 million third-quarter haul.","August polling is mixed: Hart Research Associates (House Majority PAC) puts Gray ahead by 5, while Fabrizio, Lee & Associates shows Luna +8 and GQR shows Luna +3."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse and comes from partisan-sponsored surveys that disagree on the leader, so the race turns on whether Luna's incumbency and the redrawn map outweigh Gray's strong fundraising and the possibility of a favorable national environment.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:05:59.191009Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-leela-gray-leads-anna-paulina-luna-in-fl-13","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814114-anna-paulina-luna-leads-leela-gray-in-likely-general-election-matchup-clouding-dems-hope-for-a-flip/","https://www.semafor.com/article/08/14/2026/democrats-eye-republican-held-florida-district","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/798768-internal-poll-shows-leela-gray-in-statistical-tie-with-anna-paulina-luna/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL13-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL13-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0FL13158/","https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/08/14/florida-house-races-republican-democrat-tampa-bay-fundraising/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823047-leela-gray-gets-a-fourth-ratings-shift-and-a-1-4m-quarter-the-last-two-democrats-to-poll-this-well-against-anna-paulina-luna-lost-by-9-points/","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/campaign-finance/contributions/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL13234/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/house/","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.opensecrets.org/","https://www.followthemoney.org/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEFL13-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEFL13-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for FL-13?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.275,"yes_bid":0.26,"yes_ask":0.29,"last_price":0.29,"volume":9284.38,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:20:50.850615Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL13-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEFL13-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEFL13-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for FL-13?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.73,"yes_bid":0.71,"yes_ask":0.75,"last_price":0.73,"volume":21768,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:20:52.986215Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL13-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.72,"Democratic":0.27,"No Party 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The only public general-election poll, a St. Pete Polls survey from mid-July, put Castor ahead 46.2-37.5, though it is three months old and leaves a large undecided share.","takeaway":"A true toss-up: Castor's incumbency and polling lead offset a redrawn district that leans Republican.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district's Republican lean (about Trump+10, 55% Trump in 2024) plus NRCC battleground support for Beltran give the GOP a structural edge.","Castor's incumbency, Tampa name recognition and roughly $2.3 million banked without personal loans counter the district's Republican lean and Beltran's national party backing.","The lone public general-election poll (St. Pete Polls, ended 2026-07-15) shows Castor ahead by 8.7 points, but it is three months old and leaves many voters undecided."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Beltran's party backing outweigh Castor's incumbency and her 8.7-point lead in the only public poll, which is three months old and leaves a large undecided share.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-11T02:04:41.160708Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_CD14_July15_R6B43DK.pdf","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/807848-did-gov-desantis-draw-a-dummymander-poll-shows-kathy-castor-beating-both-top-republicans-in-cd-14/","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL11126/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/kathy-castor/summary?cid=N00005226","https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/06/17/hillsborough-gop-congressional-candidates-are-no-on-ukraine-funding-or-taking-aipac-funds/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/26/rep-kathy-castor-and-mike-beltran-are-running-in-the-general-election-for-the-redrawn-floridas-14th-congressional-district/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/kathy-castor/pacs?cid=N00027514&cycle=2024&type=I","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL14237/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=45388103&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL14237/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL14245/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=92395","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/14/2026/","https://ballotpedia.org/Salomon_Hernandez","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=91055","https://ballotpedia.org/Keith_Varian","https://www.votevarian2026.com/about.html","https://www.votevarian2026.com/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.53,"Republican":0.47},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.61,"Republican":0.385,"Libertarian":0.004,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.43,"Republican":0.54,"Libertarian":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"fl-house-15-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 15th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:28:34.380805+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Laurel Lee","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/_Laurel-Lee_.jpg"},{"name":"Robert People","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/951721/robert-people.png"},{"name":"Angie Boone","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Laurel Lee","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Rep. Laurel Lee is heavily favored in a district redrawn to add Republican-leaning territory, and she faces a first-time, underfunded Democratic nominee with no public polling showing any competitive signal. Structural and incumbency advantages point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:28:20.484031Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL15241/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/laurel-lee/summar","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/laurel-lee/industries","https://floridapolitcs.com/archives/790687-delivering-results-laurel-lee-adds-another-679k-to-re-election-effort-in-cd-15/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL15168/","https://ballotpedia.org/Robert_People_(Florida)","https://insideelections.com/person/robert-people/","https://ballotpedia.org/Angie_Boone"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-16-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 16th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T18:03:32.001010+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sydney Gruters","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gruters-headshot-New-College-copy_20260601_163439_29127_1.jpg"},{"name":"Kelly Kirschner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/fu_vxxgzsq7q2td5fd_20260528_141112_38576_1.jpg"},{"name":"Mark Davis","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Davis_2026.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sydney Gruters","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.7799,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.2,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.02,"Republican":0.7799},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The open seat leans strongly Republican — Trump carried it by roughly 15 points in 2024 — and Sydney Gruters leads the most recent head-to-head poll 43-39 while holding a large fundraising advantage over Kelly Kirschner. A near-tie in the earlier August survey and a no-party candidate in the field keep this from being a lock.","takeaway":"Republicans are favored in this open, red-leaning seat, with Sydney Gruters leading the latest poll and holding a fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Republican lean (Trump carried FL-16 by about 15 points in 2024) favors Gruters even in an open-seat race.","Gruters leads the newest head-to-head poll, Public Policy Polling's Oct. 1-2 survey, 43-39, and raised roughly $1.09M versus Kirschner's roughly $297K.","Kirschner's local profile as a former Sarasota mayor and his $100,000 post-primary fundraising burst, plus a near-tie in the Aug. 25-29 SEA Research survey, keep a Democratic overperformance plausible."],"uncertainty":"Only two head-to-head surveys exist and they disagree on the leader, so the race turns on whether Gruters's district lean, fundraising and endorsement edge outweighs Kirschner's grassroots momentum and the uncertain effect of no-party candidate Mark Davis.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T18:03:26.358527Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/florida-16/","https://kellykirschner.com/press/new-poll-kirschner-and-gruters-dead-heat-fl-16/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00945915/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/806642-sydney-gruters-raises-nearly-1m-in-first-quarter-as-candidate-for-open-cd-16/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/810189-winning-for-women-puts-six-figures-behind-sydney-gruters-in-cd-16-primary/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2026&id=FL16","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/816161-kelly-kirschner-touts-100k-in-fundraising-since-winning-cd-16-democratic-nomination/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00949073/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/807762-kelly-kirschner-posts-224k-in-first-quarter-says-hes-ready-to-battle-sydney-gruters-in-cd-16/","https://kellykirschner.com/press/kirschner-adds-grassroots-donors-nearly-3x-faster-than-gruters-as-national-democrats-put-fl-16-on-the-map-to-retake-the-house/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL06365/","https://markdavisforcongress.com/","https://markdavisforcongress.com/more-about-why"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"No Party Affiliation":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.81,"Democratic":0.18,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"No Party Affiliation":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"fl-house-17-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 17th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:37:36.120752+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Greg Steube","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg_Steube.jpg"},{"name":"Matthew Montavon","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Matthew_Montavon.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Quirk","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Greg Steube","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Greg Steube, endorsed by Trump, faces a first-time Democratic challenger and an NPA candidate in a southwest Florida district Trump carried with roughly 60.5% in 2024. With no public polling and a large GOP structural and financial advantage, a Steube victory is highly probable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:37:21.830563Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8FL17053/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/w-gregory-steube","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_17th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL17060/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL17081/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=a"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-18-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 18th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 18th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-24T01:30:46.968596+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott Franklin","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://franklin.house.gov/images/franklin-headshot.png"},{"name":"Curtis Gibson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1000004275_20260713_045559_31257_1.jpg"},{"name":"Deva Simmons","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Scott Franklin","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Florida's 18th District leans strongly Republican (R+8), and incumbent Scott Franklin holds overwhelming structural and financial advantages, having raised roughly $850,000 versus Gibson's ~$12,000. A local straw poll shows Franklin at 64.4%, reinforcing the incumbent's dominant position in a race with no evidence of competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T01:30:28.579004Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.lakelandchamber.com/uploads/1/4/2/1/142142136/lakeland_straw_poll.pdf","https://legis1.com/news/florida-18th-district-primary-2026-floridas","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL","https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/recips?code=D&cycle=2024&ind=D&recipdetail=R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL18204/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-19-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 19th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 19th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T00:40:08.313312+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Victor Arias","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Victor_Arias_20260504_040254.png"},{"name":"Jim Schwartzel","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Schwartzel_20250618_043846.jpg"},{"name":"Seth Haskin","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SethHaskin.jpg"},{"name":"Alexandra Zakhvatayev","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Schwartzel","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"FL-19 is a deeply Republican open seat (R+14 PVI) that gave Donald Trump roughly 64% of the vote in 2024, giving GOP nominee Jim Schwartzel an overwhelming structural edge over Democrat Victor Arias. With no public general-election polling, the forecast rests on the district's strong partisan lean and Schwartzel's primary win rather than direct survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:39:48.416576Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/19/2026/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/florida/federal/florida-district-19/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL19178/?tab=other-spending","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-20-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 20th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 20th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:41:56.463118+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Debbie Wasserman Schultz","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Debbie-Wasserman-Schulz.PNG"},{"name":"Brent Andersen","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-6368_20260624_161639_30411_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Kedner Maxime","party":"Independent Party of Florida","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kedner_Maxime.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Debbie Wasserman Schultz","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"FL-20 was redrawn as a D+20 seat packed to be solidly Democratic, and Wasserman Schultz — a well-known, well-funded incumbent — won the August 18 primary and faces a Republican businessman and an independent with minimal resources. With no general-election polling, the district's partisan composition and her commanding financial lead make a Democratic hold near-certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:26:52.382110Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/05/27/campaign-poll-shows-wasserman-schultz-viewed-favorably-by-black-voters-leading-primary-matchup/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/22/wasserman-schultz-has-commanding-financial-lead-in-district-20/","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_20th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL20023/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/debbie-wasserman-schultz/us_congress/legislation?cycle=2024&mpid=1056682","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brent-andersen","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kedner-maxime/donors","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-21-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 21st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 21st Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T22:13:23.637348+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brian Mast","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Brian_Mast_official_115th_Congress_photo.jpg"},{"name":"James Martin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Martin_20251014_045435.jpeg"},{"name":"Alexander Cooke","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alexander_Cooke.jpg"},{"name":"David Fabrikant","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-5395_20260619_165612_30159_2.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brian Mast","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8399,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.8399,"Democratic":0.1455,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.0145},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Brian Mast brings incumbency, a House Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship, and a large fundraising advantage to a district that leans Republican, and no head-to-head polling of the current field is logged. James Martin is a credible challenger and the new map is marginally more competitive, but the structural and financial fundamentals point to a Republican hold.","takeaway":"Mast is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though a redistricting-shifted map and midterm headwinds leave some Democratic upside.","key_reasons":["Republican-leaning district (R+7) with an incumbent who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has held the seat since 2017.","Mast's fundraising far outpaces the Democratic nominee: $4.3M raised through July 29, 2026 versus $579,319 for James Martin.","No head-to-head polling of the current field is logged; the only reported survey is a Martin campaign press release that omits field dates and sample size."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the marginally more competitive redistricting map and a midterm environment that can favor the out-party outweigh Mast's incumbency and fundraising edge, with the only reported survey being a campaign press release lacking field dates and sample size.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:13:16.404534Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.jamesmartinforflorida.com/news/james-martin-surges-ahead-in-poll-against-maga-rep-brian-mast","https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN&CountyCode=PAL","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00632257/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brian-mast/summary","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brian-mast/donors","https://responsiblestatecraft.org/rep-mast-west-bank/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/21/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL21075/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/james-martin/donors","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814669-james-martin-edges-out-bernard-taylor-for-democratic-nomination-in-cd-21/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-south-florida-candidates/","https://alexcookeforcongress.com/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-fl-21","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-fl-21/general"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.11,"No Party Affiliation":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.69,"Democratic":0.3,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"No Party Affiliation":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"fl-house-22-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 22nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 22nd Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:06.342100+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pia Dandiya","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.sun-sentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/TFL-L-Pia-Dandiya-01.jpeg?w=1024&h=1232"},{"name":"Casey Askar","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Casey_Askar.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.5499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.5499,"Democratic":0.4501},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 22nd is Republican-leaning — Trump carried it 55%-44% in 2024 — yet the only two head-to-head surveys, a House Majority PAC-sponsored Impact Research poll (Dandiya +2) and a Tavern Research poll (tied 50-50), show a dead heat. Dandiya's roughly $2.28M raised and DCCC Red to Blue backing roughly offset Askar's $2.5M self-funded campaign, leaving no clear favorite.","takeaway":"A Republican-leaning redrawn open seat and sparse, close August polling leave this race a toss-up.","key_reasons":["The newly drawn district is Republican-leaning: Trump carried it 55%-44% in 2024, a sharp shift from the old safely Democratic lines, giving Askar a structural edge in an open seat.","General-election polling is sparse and stale — nothing newer than late August — and close: Impact Research (House Majority PAC-sponsored) had Dandiya 46%-44%, while Tavern Research was tied 50-50.","Both candidates are well funded, with Dandiya's ~$2.28M raised and DCCC Red to Blue support against Askar's $2.5M personal loan, keeping the race highly competitive."],"uncertainty":"No general-election poll is newer than late August, so the outcome turns on whether the district's Republican lean outweighs Dandiya's fundraising and institutional support.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:05:58.797452Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-pia-dandiya-leads-casey-askar-in-fl-22","https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/general/florida-22","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL21059/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/806398-pia-dandiya-crosses-2m-in-fundraising-with-reported-515k-q2-haul-for-cd-22/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/790883-our-strongest-momentum-yet-pia-dandiya-touts-410k-haul-in-q1-toward-flipping-cd-21/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL22248/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0FL19221/","https://floridianpress.com/2026/06/republican-casey-askar-touts-business-experience-in-cd-22-pitch/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.45,"Republican":0.55},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.48,"Republican":0.52},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.42,"Republican":0.58},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"fl-house-23-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 23rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 23rd Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T05:02:41.959651+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lois Frankel","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Lois_Frankel_118th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpeg?itok=gjJGnPzs"},{"name":"Deborah Adeimy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DeborahAdeimyFL.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lois Frankel","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 23rd District sits entirely within Palm Beach County and leans strongly Democratic, and incumbent Lois Frankel pairs that partisan advantage with a large fundraising and incumbency edge over Republican Deborah Adeimy. With no public general-election polling and a September market pricing Democrats near 95%, the seat remains safely Democratic.","takeaway":"Frankel is a heavy favorite to hold this strongly Democratic-leaning Palm Beach County seat.","key_reasons":["The new 2026 lines made the district more Democratic; Kamala Harris carried it with more than 56% in 2024, a double-digit partisan lean.","Frankel, a senior Appropriations member, has raised roughly $2.28 million with $1.21 million cash on hand, far outpacing Adeimy's roughly $162,000 raised and committee debt.","Trading on the FL-23 market prices a Democratic win near 95% with no contrary polling or developments in the race."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists and the market read comes from a single exchange with modest volume, so the main caveat is a thin evidence base rather than any signal of a competitive race.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T05:02:38.383769Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL23-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL23-26-R","https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/TrackCounty/PAL","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL14053/","https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-08-13/in-redrawn-fl-23-incumbent-rep-lois-frankel-battles-political-outsider-victoria-doyle","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/685073-lois-frankel-adds-264k-toward-cd-22-defense-as-gop-trio-amasses-cash-before-primary/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00494856/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL21132/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/deborah-adeimy/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00791541/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9515,"yes_bid":0.933,"yes_ask":0.97,"last_price":0.957,"volume":9289.47,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:21:49.361417Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL23-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for FL-23?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.05,"yes_bid":0.03,"yes_ask":0.07,"last_price":0.03,"volume":7519.69,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:21:51.620887Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEFL23-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"fl-house-24-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 24th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 24th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T01:14:17.583552+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Oliver Gilbert III","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/miamitimesonline.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/74/774324a9-b8a3-45f4-883a-f9e1a10025ee/6a22e87325499.image.png?resize=400%2C298"},{"name":"Te Brown","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Image-1_20260812_003547_32579_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Andy Daro","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy-Daro-under-2MB_20260623_200517_42201_1.jpg"},{"name":"Patricia Gonzalez","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/pgonzalez2.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Oliver Gilbert III","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"FL-24 is a heavily Democratic open seat where the Democratic presidential nominee took nearly 69% of the 2024 vote, and Wilson-endorsed Oliver Gilbert III — winner of the seven-way August 18 Democratic primary — faces a weak field of an unopposed Republican, an NPA candidate, and a minimal-resource write-in. With no general-election polling, the call rests on district partisanship and candidate fundamentals rather than survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T01:14:00.058100Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2026/08/18/florida-primary-coverage-of-us-house-races-for-the-24th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL24061/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL24052/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL14203/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL24095/","https://politicalcortadito.com/2026/08/21/oliver-gilbert-congress-24-primary/","https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article316872388.html","https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article316185473.html","https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/08/13/cryptocurrency-pac-campaign-ad-attack-oliver-gilbert/","https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article316855768.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/24/2026/","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Republican_primary)","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-south-florida-candidates/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"fl-house-25-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 25th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 25th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:04:27.718184+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jared Moskowitz","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jared_Moskowitz2022.jpg"},{"name":"Scott Singer","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Scott-Singer-headshot-2026_20260706_171440_44357_1.jpg"},{"name":"Peter Jassenoff","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://b3870750.assetcdn.net/2.0/3870750/wp-content/uploads/1000002352-577x1024.jpeg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1"},{"name":"Michaelangelo Hamilton","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michaelangelo-Hamilton.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jared Moskowitz","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.65,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.65,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.0038,"No Party Affiliation":0.0001,"Republican":0.3461},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Democratic incumbent Jared Moskowitz holds a modest edge in a redrawn district that leans Republican at the presidential level, and a May Beacon Insights survey of Boca Raton voters that matched the two eventual nominees put him ahead 43-33. Scott Singer's Trump, Republican Jewish Coalition and America First Works endorsements plus comparable fundraising keep the contest genuinely competitive.","takeaway":"Moskowitz is modestly favored to hold this Democratic seat, but a Trump-leaning redrawn district and thin polling keep it competitive.","key_reasons":["A May Beacon Insights survey (ended 2026-05-02) that matched the two eventual nominees showed Moskowitz leading Singer 43-33, a 10-point edge, though it sampled only 461 Boca Raton registered voters and predates the August 18 primaries.","Moskowitz carries incumbency, district-wide name recognition and a fundraising edge of roughly $3.0M raised versus Singer's roughly $2.25M, with a strong pro-Israel and tech donor base.","The newly redrawn district voted 54%-45% for Trump in 2024, giving Singer a real partisan opening that his Trump, Republican Jewish Coalition and America First Works endorsements reinforce."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Trump-leaning 2024 presidential margin outweighs Moskowitz's incumbency and polling lead, with only one stale, geographically narrow poll available and no newer public survey to confirm the standing.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:04:19.997993Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://floridapolitics.com/archives/794555-poll-scott-singer-unpopular-in-boca-raton-even-as-jared-moskowitz-over-performs-in-new-cd-25/","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_25th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL22171/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jared-moskowitz/summary","https://theintercept.com/2026/08/17/florida-congress-oliver-larkin-jared-moskowitz-aipac/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/18/facing-tough-election-campaign-in-new-congressional-district-moskowitz-raises-big-campaign-money/","https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-07-29/larkin-moskowitz-fl-25-democratic-socialist-primary","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/811663-gop-poll-shows-scott-singer-with-strong-lead-in-cd-25-republican-primary/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jared-moskowitz/us_congress/summary?mpid=1214714","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/747615-jared-moskowitz-grows-contributions-this-cycle-to-more-than-520k/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL23188/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/scott-singer/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00932574/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/789351-we-are-in-the-best-position-scott-singer-posts-1-3m-opening-haul-toward-flipping-cd-23/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2025/12/18/boca-raton-mayor-scott-singer-announces-congress-campaign-seeks-to-oust-democrat-moskowitz/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL25068/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00953877/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-south-florida-candidates/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL23105/","https://insideelections.com/person/michaelangelo-collins-hamilton/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.37,"Libertarian":0.005,"No Party Affiliation":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.43,"Republican":0.56,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.52,"Republican":0.46,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.19}},{"id":"fl-house-26-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 26th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 26th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:43.067482+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mario Diaz-Balart","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mario_Diaz_Balart.jpg"},{"name":"Nicole Locklin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nicole_Locklin_20260504_010745.png"},{"name":"Deborah Meidinger Hosey","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKc7TtuawAEm2s5.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mario Diaz-Balart","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.0389,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.0111},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 26th District remains clearly Republican-leaning — Trump carried it by 18 points in 2024 — and incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds a wide resource edge, with roughly $2.54M cash on hand against about $348K raised by Nicole Locklin, most of it a candidate loan. With no public polling of the general election, the case rests on that partisan lean, long incumbency, and fundraising rather than on head-to-head numbers.","takeaway":"Diaz-Balart is strongly favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat against an underfunded Democratic challenge.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district is less Republican than the old lines but still clearly GOP-leaning, with Trump carrying it by 18 points in 2024.","Díaz-Balart's long tenure and senior Appropriations role pair with a large money advantage: about $2.06M raised and $2.54M cash on hand versus roughly $348K raised by Locklin, largely a $250,000 self-loan, and about $9K by Hosey.","No public polling or other signals point to a competitive general election one month out, leaving the Democratic nominee with limited means to shift a district-level partisan gap of this size."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the forecast rests on partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising; the redrawn map's new southwest Broward turf and Locklin's anti-corruption, affordability message are the main sources of upside uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:37.737389Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?elecid=20261103-GEN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL25018/","https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_26th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://legis1.com/news/rpac-political-spending-2026-follow-the-money-by","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mario-diaz-balart","https://www.miramarflnews.com/news/local/article316927221.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL26058/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nicole-locklin/donors","https://www.dispatch.com/press-release/story/213221/the-nicole-locklin-for-u-s-congress-campaign-shows-strength-with-her-q2-fundraising-haul/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL26074/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/FL"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.08,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"fl-house-27-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 27th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 27th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:07:20.788573+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maria Elvira Salazar","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/_Maria_Elvira_Salazar_.jpg"},{"name":"Eliott Rodriguez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eliott_Rodriguez_20260416_091016.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maria Elvira Salazar","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.65,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.35},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar holds a narrow but consistent edge: the two non-internal head-to-head polls put her ahead by one and three points, and she carries a large cash advantage in a district she won by roughly 20 points in 2024. Democrat Eliott Rodriguez has made the race highly competitive — the August campaign internal was tied — but Salazar's incumbency and resources keep Republicans modestly favored.","takeaway":"Salazar is modestly favored to hold this Republican-leaning Miami seat, though a tightened race keeps it genuinely competitive.","key_reasons":["Salazar leads the two non-internal head-to-head polls (Tulchin Research, ended 2026-09-13: Salazar 47, Rodriguez 46; Blueprint Polling, ended 2026-03-06: Salazar 46, Rodriguez 43), while the August campaign internal was tied 45-45.","Incumbency and money: Salazar is a three-term incumbent with roughly $2.26M cash on hand against Rodriguez's roughly $325K, in a district she carried with about 60% in 2024.","Rodriguez's local media profile, Miami Herald Editorial Board endorsement and labor backing, plus the immigration-related friction between Salazar and President Trump, have pulled the race to a near-tie."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Rodriguez's near-tie polling and momentum can overcome Salazar's incumbency and roughly seven-to-one cash advantage, with only three public polls available and the newest from mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:07:10.948919Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/general/florida-27","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/784817-__trashed-35/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/819918-a-pure-toss-up-eliott-rodriguez-maria-elvira-salazar-deadlocked-in-cd-27-internal-poll-finds/","https://www.wlrn.org/light/government-politics/2026-10-05/eliott-rodriguez-maria-elvira-salazar-florida-27-congress","https://www.newsweek.com/maria-salazars-chances-in-florida-as-trump-posts-slew-of-criticism-12494029","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8FL27185/","https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2026/08/19/cuba-american-retired-journalists-face-off-in-floridas-27th-congressional-district-midterm-election/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-fl-27/compare/eliott-rodriguez-vs-maria-salazar","https://www.magareportcards.com/salazar/","https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2026/07/12/democrats-aim-to-take-back-floridas-27th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL27098/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/eliott-rodriguez","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814763-eliott-rodriguez-adds-more-labor-muscle-ahead-of-democratic-primary-vote-in-cd-27/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/811591-elect-a-fighter-linda-sanchez-endorses-robin-peguero-for-cd-27/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.62,"Democratic":0.38},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.54,"Democratic":0.46},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.54,"Democratic":0.46},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"fl-house-28-2026","title":"2026 Florida's 28th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Florida's 28th Congressional District","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:02:57.750847+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Carlos A. Gimenez","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Rep._Carlos_Gimenez_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Phil Ehr","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Phil_Ehr_Naval-Photo.jpg"},{"name":"Eddy Rojas","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EddyRojas2025.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Carlos A. Gimenez","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.045,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.005,"Republican":0.9499},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Giménez holds a district with a pronounced Republican lean and defeated the same Democratic opponent, Phil Ehr, by roughly 29 points in 2024, while carrying a fundraising edge and facing no logged candidate-level general-election polling that suggests a shift. Ehr's campaign is largely self-funded and Eddy Rojas reported no receipts, leaving little evidence of a viable path to a flip.","takeaway":"Giménez is strongly favored to keep this R+10 Miami-area seat, with no current polling pointing to a competitive race.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican-leaning profile (R+10) combined with Giménez's incumbency and his roughly 29-point 2024 win over the same Democratic nominee, Phil Ehr.","Giménez's fundraising advantage over a largely self-funded Ehr campaign, with the No Party Affiliation candidate reporting no receipts.","No candidate-level general-election polling or market signal for this matchup that would indicate a competitive contest."],"uncertainty":"No current candidate-level polling exists for this matchup, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency and 2024 results; a strongly Democratic national environment is the main way the margin could narrow.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:02:54.260852Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanList.asp?CountyCode=MON&elecid=20261103-GEN","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/788279-poll-shows-carlos-gimenezs-lead-narrowing-in-cd-28-amid-economic-policy-headwinds/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0FL26036/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/carlos-gimenez-fl","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Carlos%20A.%20Gimenez-G000593/donors","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/20/whos-raising-the-most-money-search-congressional-fundraising-data-for-south-florida-candidates/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4FL28042/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/797547-a-setup-error-buried-phil-ehrs-q1-fundraising-fixing-the-problem-has-been-harder-than-expected/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL28021/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.045,"No Party Affiliation":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.07,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"fl-senate-2026-special","title":"2026 Florida U.S. Senate Special Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Florida","state":"Florida","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T09:05:30.251242+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ashley B. Moody","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ashley-B-Moody.jpg"},{"name":"Angela Nixon","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Angie-IMG-0311_20260714_143001_45647_1.jpg"},{"name":"Neil Gillespie","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Neil_Gillespie_20251218_080632.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ashley B. Moody","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8743,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1206,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.005,"Republican":0.8743},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Moody leads the recent general-election polling in most surveys — Mason-Dixon (+10), Stetson (+11) and YouGov (+5) — while Change Research shows her up 1 and only St. Pete Polls is tied, and she holds a large financial advantage over Nixon. Florida's Republican lean and Moody's incumbency reinforce that edge, though Nixon's grassroots campaign and one tied survey leave a narrow upset path.","takeaway":"Moody is clearly favored to hold Florida's Senate seat, with most recent polling and a wide fundraising edge pointing to a mid-single-digit Republican win.","key_reasons":["Recent general-election polling mostly favors Moody: Mason-Dixon +10, Stetson +11, YouGov +5, with Change Research at +1 and only St. Pete Polls tied.","Moody holds a large fundraising advantage, roughly $8.5 million cash on hand versus about $265,000 for Nixon, plus a well-funded allied committee.","Florida's Republican lean and Moody's appointed incumbency: no Democrat has won a Florida U.S. Senate race since 2012, and the state has trended further Republican in recent cycles."],"uncertainty":"Polling scatter is wide — from a tied St. Pete Polls survey to a double-digit Moody lead — and the prediction-market readings are from mid-September, so the size of the Republican margin is less certain than the direction.","based_on_poll_count":9,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T09:05:20.548243Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nbcmiami.com/elections/poll-shows-ashley-moody-leading-angie-nixon-in-floridas-u-s-senate-race/3869181/","https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf","https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-28-jolly-maintains-lead-in-florida-governors-race","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/821590-new-stetson-univ-poll-casts-doubt-on-blue-wave-in-florida/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/820643-poll-ashley-moody-45-angie-nixon-45-and-florida-now-has-two-toss-ups-at-the-top-of-the-ticket/","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/808435-nixon-vindman-moody-unf-poll/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEFLS-26-R","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2026-poll-donalds-leads-gop-primary-for-governor-republicans-outpace-democrats-in-florida-elections/","https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/spring-omnibus--26-tables.pdf","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/783202-unf-poll-shows-ashley-moody-lead-in-single-digits-against-either-angie-nixon-or-alex-vindman/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEFLS-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00895763/","https://www.whoisfundingsusan.org/candidate/moody","https://floridapolitics.com/archives/812565-ashley-moody-alex-vindman-both-reach-into-seven-figures-in-fundraising-while-squabbling-over-totals/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/florida/article_fb70962b-7c87-450a-a5a3-e9eba1dd6c04.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ashley-moody/us_congress/summary?mpid=1357211","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6FL00640/","https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/05/01/ashley-moody-big-pharma-campaign-donations-senate/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00915041/","https://secure.actblue.com/directory","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/S6FL00863/1952931/","https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2026/07/18/facing-tough-election-campaign-in-new-congressional-district-moskowitz-raises-big-campaign-money/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEFLS-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEFLS-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.094,"yes_bid":0.091,"yes_ask":0.097,"last_price":0.091,"volume":853736.03,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:46.985137Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEFLS-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEFLS-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEFLS-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9105000000000001,"yes_bid":0.91,"yes_ask":0.911,"last_price":0.91,"volume":423224.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:48.203521Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEFLS-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.89,"Democratic":0.105,"No Party Affiliation":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.125,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"ga-governor-2026","title":"2026 Georgia Governor Election","office":"Governor of Georgia","jurisdiction":"Georgia","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:07:00.044860+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Keisha Lance Bottoms","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KeishaBottoms.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Jackson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_Jackson_20260204_052915.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rick Jackson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.56,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.44,"Republican":0.56},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The most recent head-to-head surveys — Wedgewood Polls (ending Oct 4), YouGov, InsiderAdvantage and BIG DATA POLL (all ending Sept 23) — put Rick Jackson ahead by about 2 points, and Georgia's modest Republican lean in statewide contests plus Jackson's self-funding and outside fundraising give him a slight structural edge. The margin is small enough that Keisha Lance Bottoms, who led several July surveys, remains well within reach.","takeaway":"Rick Jackson holds a narrow edge in an open Georgia governor's race that remains close to a toss-up.","key_reasons":["The newest polls of the matchup — Wedgewood Polls (ending Oct 4), YouGov, InsiderAdvantage and BIG DATA POLL (all ending Sept 23) — show Jackson leading by roughly 2 points, a reversal from July when Bottoms led several surveys.","Georgia retains a modest Republican lean in statewide races, and the seat is currently Republican-held, which slightly favors Jackson in an open-seat contest.","Jackson's resources are substantial: more than $108 million of self-funding in the primary plus roughly $13 million raised between June 11 and July 31, 2026, including a $10 million Republican Governors Association contribution."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Jackson's narrow 2-point polling edge holds: earlier July surveys (Fox News, State Navigate, AARP) had Bottoms ahead, and prediction-market pricing is close, so a small polling error could flip the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":12,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:53.355245Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/georgia","https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-georgia-survey-jackson-leads-by-two-in-race-for-governor-ossoff-leads-by-eight-in-senate-contest/","https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYGA-26-R","https://sos.ga.gov/november-3-2026-general-election","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_georgia_governor","https://www.wctv.tv/2026/08/22/poll-shows-georgia-governors-race-effectively-tied-between-jackson-bottoms/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/georgia-governor-election-polls-2026.html","https://statenavigate.org/ga/state-navigate-poll-shows-lance-bottoms-with-7-point-lead-in-georgia-governor-race/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYGA-26-D","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ga/candidate/keisha-l-bottoms","https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-governor-race-rick-jackson-raises-13m-in-outside-money/","https://www.bisnow.com/news/atlanta/economic-development/jackson-far-outraising-bottoms-georgia-governor-race-cre-execs-donations-campaign-finance","https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/keisha-lance-bottoms-jason-esteves-fundraising-georgia-governor-race","https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/rick-jackson-outraises-bottoms-georgia-governor-race","https://www.transparencyusa.org/ga/race/governor-of-georgia-76665","https://www.wjcl.com/article/rick-jackson-georgia-governor-primary-spending/71809624"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYGA-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYGA-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.46499999999999997,"yes_bid":0.46,"yes_ask":0.47,"last_price":0.47,"volume":623956.4,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:16.099365Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYGA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYGA-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYGA-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.535,"yes_bid":0.53,"yes_ask":0.54,"last_price":0.54,"volume":708493.89,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-09T20:06:52.798506Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYGA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.44,"Republican":0.56},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.39,"Republican":0.61},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.45,"Republican":0.55},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"ga-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 1st Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:04:32.180029+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James Kingston","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Kingston.png"},{"name":"Amanda Hollowell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Amanda_Hollowell_20250909_113835.jpg"},{"name":"Dylan Castillo","party":"Socialist Labor","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dylan_Castillo_20260202_070421.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"James Kingston","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.0438,"Socialist Labor":0.0063},"margin_estimate":16.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Georgia's 1st District is a strongly Republican-leaning coastal seat, and Republican nominee Jim Kingston holds a wide fundraising advantage over Democrat Amanda Hollowell with no public polling indicating a competitive race. The open seat and the presence of a Socialist Labor candidate leave Democrats a narrow path.","takeaway":"Republicans are strongly favored to win Georgia's 1st District open seat, with Kingston's resources and the district's lean outweighing Hollowell's bid.","key_reasons":["The coastal Georgia district has a strong Republican baseline, and the race is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report.","Kingston holds a large resource and institutional edge: roughly $1.94 million raised through June 30, 2026 versus about $162,500 for Hollowell, plus endorsements from President Trump, Club for Growth and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.","No public polling shows a competitive contest, and the third-party Socialist Labor candidacy of Dylan Castillo offers no meaningful counterweight."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, fundraising and endorsements rather than direct voter surveys, and the open seat removes any incumbency signal.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:04:26.060493Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings","https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA01109/","https://insidepoliticalmoney.com/news/friendship-over-fear-how-the-top-ai-super-pac-is-spending/","https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-midterm-elections-spending-super-pacs-greg-brockman-anthropic-2026-7","https://thecurrentga.org/2026/05/11/kingston-campaign-gets-trump-nod-amid-questions-about-ties-to-father-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA01158/","https://workingfamilies.org/2026/03/georgia-wfp-announces-2026-primary-endorsements/","https://higherheightsforamericapac.org/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA01190/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Socialist Labor":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Socialist Labor":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Socialist Labor":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ga-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:01.418522+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sanford Bishop Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sanford_D._Bishop_Jr.jpg"},{"name":"Matt Day","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://janrvuropqrnptyieksp.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/politician-images/matt-day-1778328744335.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sanford Bishop Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.76,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.76,"Republican":0.24},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Bishop has represented this southwest Georgia seat since 1993, took about 56% in 2024, and holds a wide fundraising and cash-on-hand edge over first-time Republican nominee Matt Day. With no public polling of the matchup, the district's Democratic lean and Bishop's long incumbency point to a clear but not overwhelming Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"Bishop is favored to win an 18th term in this Democratic-leaning southwest Georgia district, though the absence of polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["Bishop is a 17-term incumbent who has held the seat since 1993 and won roughly 56% in 2024, indicating a durable Democratic lean in the district.","Day is a first-time nominee with a steep resource gap: about $143K raised (mostly self-funded) and $1,768 cash on hand versus Bishop's roughly $1.13M raised and $448K on hand.","No public polling of the general election exists, so the forecast rests on incumbency, district lean, and campaign resources rather than measured vote preference."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the Bishop-Day matchup exists, and the district's longer-term trajectory could shift if redistricting follows weakened Voting Rights Act protections, though boundaries would not change before 2028.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:05:56.287558Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/GeneralPrimary51926","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2GA02031/","https://theappeal.org/ice-cold-cash-private-prison-congress-donations/","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/american-society-of-anesthesiologists/C00255752/candidate-recipients/2022","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_congressional_candidates_who_received_campaign_money_from_the_National_Rifle_Association","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA01182/","https://ballotpedia.org/Matt_Day_(Georgia)","https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=H2026GA02"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.17},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"ga-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T04:47:38.015898+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brian Jack","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/24/Jack_Brian_119th_Congress_(cropped).jpg"},{"name":"Maura Keller","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Maura_Keller.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brian Jack","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Brian Jack carried this strongly Republican west-central Georgia district with 66.3% in 2024, faces the same opponent he defeated that cycle, and holds an overwhelming financial edge (~$2.05M raised, ~$1.14M cash) over Maura Keller's ~$150K grassroots haul. With no public polling, district fundamentals, incumbency, and candidate strength all point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T04:47:24.894126Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4GA03126/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4GA03100/","https://maurakeller.com/news/maura-keller-fundraising-record","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brian-jack/summary"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 4th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:35:46.349555+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hank Johnson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Hank-Johnson.jpg"},{"name":"James Raymond Duffie","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/0038-cs1-4037-_2020-11-27-12-56-57-UTC__20260823_174756_52482_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hank Johnson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This is a heavily Democratic Atlanta-suburb seat Hank Johnson has held since 2007, winning his 2024 general election by 51 points and his 2026 primary with ~79%. Against a Republican challenger with no reported campaign finance and no public polling in the race, a Democratic hold is virtually certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:13:18.320835Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/georgia-general-election-2026-candidates-us-senate-all-14-us-house-seats/TCGX3E477BG7FCEATCR67KRDBQ/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA04129/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/hank-johnson/us_congress/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00027848","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/GA","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ga-4/compare/hank-johnson-vs-james-duffie","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA04194/","https://ballotpedia.org/James_Duffie"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 5th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T18:42:49.267359+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nikema Williams","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nikema_Williams_Georgia.jpg"},{"name":"John Salvesen","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JohnSalvesen2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nikema Williams","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":65,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Georgia's 5th is the state's most Democratic district (PVI D+36), and incumbent Nikema Williams beat the same Republican challenger 86-14 in 2024 before taking 88% in the 2026 Democratic primary. Salvesen has no reported campaign finance, no public polling, and no evident organization, leaving Williams overwhelmingly favored.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T18:42:38.879735Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/GA","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/georgia-5/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0GA05301/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/nikema-williams/summary?cid=N00047361&cycle=2024","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/nikema-williams/us_congress/individual_donors?cycle=2022&mpid=1070850","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=26177470&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00778290/","https://insideelections.com/person/nikema-n-williams/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4GA05063/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/?api_key=DEMO_KEY&name=salvesen&state=GA&office=H"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 6th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:11:27.994721+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lucy McBath","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/McBath__Lucy__official_resize_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"Kevin Martin","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://kevinmartinforcongress.com/assets/kevin-hero.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lucy McBath","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Lucy McBath carried this seat with nearly 75% of the vote in 2024 in a district that has trended reliably Democratic across the western Atlanta suburbs, and she holds a roughly $886K fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Kevin Martin, whose campaign raised about $10K, almost entirely self-loans. With no public polling, the forecast rests on incumbency, prior results, and district partisanship, all of which point to an overwhelming Democratic advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:11:16.099558Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia's_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/georgia-republican-primary-6th-district-results-lucy-mcbath-kevin-martin/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/lucy-mcbath/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1083943","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8GA06393/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_bd5e1221-9cba-4857-86b7-4318ae769e93.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA06181/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kevin_Martin_(Georgia)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 7th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-24T14:56:23.214762+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rich McCormick","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":null},{"name":"Tony Kozycki","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://kozyckiforcongress.com/img/Tony_Kozycki_7115_Wide.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rich McCormick","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Rep. Rich McCormick holds a two-term advantage in a district that shifted rightward after redistricting and backed Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024. Democratic nominee Tony Kozycki is a first-time candidate with no public polling and limited campaign finance, leaving little evidence of competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T14:56:07.116937Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/richard-mccormick?mpid=1186341","https://www.facebook.com/wearemarchon/posts/tony-kozycki-is-march-on-pacs-pick-for-us-house-ga-07naval-aviator-and-attorney-/1408399234661869/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA07221/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 8th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T15:14:00.757105+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Austin Scott","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Austin_Scott_2021-22.jpg"},{"name":"Kelly Esti","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Roman Coley Davis","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Roman_Coley_Davis.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Austin Scott","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Scott represents a heavily Republican district he carried by 37 points in 2024, advanced unopposed in the primary, and out-raised Esti by roughly 58-to-1. With no public polling, the combined weight of district partisanship, incumbency, and campaign finance disparity makes a Republican hold a near-certainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T19:35:56.531798Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/GA/08/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0GA08099/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA08138/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/GA","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00482737/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/austin-scott/industries?cid=N00032457&cycle=CAREER","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA08161/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00930651/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00930651/","https://www.romanforcongress.org/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=GA08"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 9th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:23:41.991509+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Andrew Clyde","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://clyde.house.gov/uploadedphotos/highresolution/ab5fc9a7-f801-480a-90f0-29386022a747.png"},{"name":"Caitlyn Gegen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Caitlyn_Gegen_20260314_113759.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Andrew Clyde","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"GA-09 is a heavily Republican, largely rural and exurban district (R+17 PVI) where three-term incumbent Andrew Clyde (serving since January 2021) is a decisive favorite over Democratic nominee Caitlyn Gegen. No public polling or market signals suggest competitiveness, and Gegen's fundraising (~$43k) is a fraction of Clyde's (~$671k).","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:18:28.512218Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia's_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA09284/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0GA09246/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/andrew-clyde/us_congress/summary?mpid=1146436","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/andrew-clyde/summary","https://www.businessinsider.com/gun-store-congress-andrew-clyde-georgia-2022-5","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ga-9/compare/andrew-clyde-vs-caitlyn-gegen","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/caitlyn-gegen","https://www.caitlynforgeorgia.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 10th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:13:22.079226+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pamela DeLancy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Pamela_DeLancy_2026.png"},{"name":"Houston Gaines","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.legis.ga.gov/api/images/default-source/portraits/gaines-houston-4955.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Houston Gaines","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This is a strongly Republican-leaning open seat, and Trump-endorsed Houston Gaines won a contested primary while outraising Democrat Pamela DeLancy by roughly 100-to-1 (~$2.3M vs ~$23K through June 30). DeLancy has no legislative record or polling evidence of competitiveness in a district nonpartisan analysts uniformly rate as safely Republican.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:13:14.382979Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/georgia-10/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA10183/","https://ballotpedia.org/Pamela_DeLancy","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ga-10/compare/houston-gaines-vs-pamela-delancy","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA10175/","https://www.trackaipac.com/candidates","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston_Gaines"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 11th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:32:30.317680+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Cowan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Cowan_2026_2026-04-21_172719.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Harden","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Harden_20251103_023546.jpg"},{"name":"Natalie Richoz","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/NatalieRichoz2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Cowan","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Georgia's 11th is a heavily Republican open seat (PVI R+12) with a consistent GOP voting history, giving the Republican nominee an overwhelming structural advantage. John Cowan, who won his runoff decisively (65%) and holds President Trump's endorsement, is the clear favorite over Democrat Chris Harden and independent Natalie Richoz.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:25:17.275890Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0GA14048/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/john-cowan/donors","https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/the-money-race-house-incumbents-lead-in-georgia-with-one-exception/","https://poweredbywho.com/money","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA11116/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/chris-harden","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA11108/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/natalie-richoz","https://www.electharden.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 12th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:17:18.137387+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rick W. Allen","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Allen_1.png"},{"name":"Ceretta Smith","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ceretta_Smith.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rick W. Allen","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The R+7 eastern Georgia district's strong Republican lean, combined with incumbent Rick Allen's tenure since 2015, an 83% primary win, and a roughly $1.32M cash-on-hand advantage over Ceretta Smith's ~$3.5K on hand, gives the GOP an overwhelming structural edge. With no public polling, the forecast rests on partisan fundamentals and the candidate-resource gap rather than survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:17:05.070286Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2GA12121/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ga-12/compare/ceretta-smith-vs-rick-allen","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/richard-w-allen/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1045186","https://insideelections.com/person/richard-w-allen/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6GA12080/","https://cerettaforga.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 13th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:16:35.863213+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jasmine Clark","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jasmine_Clark.jpg"},{"name":"Jonathan Chavez","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jonathan_Chavez_2025.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jasmine Clark","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"GA-13 is a strongly Democratic metro Atlanta district, and Democrat Jasmine Clark enters the general election as a well-funded state legislator against a Republican who reported no current-cycle receipts and lost this seat by a wide margin in 2024. With no public polling, the structural, financial, and candidate-quality signals all point to a decisive Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Democrats are heavily favored to hold Georgia's 13th District, with Jasmine Clark expected to win comfortably.","key_reasons":["Strongly Democratic district: the longtime Democratic incumbent carried GA-13 by roughly 44 points in 2024 and the seat is rated Solid Democrat.","Clark is a credible, well-funded nominee (~$1.6M raised) with state legislative experience, while Chavez reported no current-cycle campaign receipts.","Chavez lost this seat badly in 2024 (~28% of the vote), and no polling or market signal suggests a competitive race."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the margin estimate rests on structural and fundraising signals rather than direct voter measurement.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:16:23.734622Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/georgia-13/","https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=H2026GA13","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/georgia-us-house-13-polls-2026.html","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/GA","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00906875/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/GA/13","https://314action.org/2026/05/20/314-action-fund-congratulates-democratic-nominee-dr-jasmine-clark-on-decisive-victory-in-ga-13/","https://georgiarecorder.com/2025/07/18/georgias-congressional-senate-candidates-are-off-to-fast-start-with-2026-campaign-fundraising/","https://southeastpolitics.com/314-action-launches-300k-ad-campaign-supporting-jasmine-clark-for-ga-13/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00874016/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2GA04201/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ga-13/general"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":40,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ga-house-14-2026","title":"2026 Georgia's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Georgia's 14th Congressional District","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T02:22:39.273442+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Clayton Fuller","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ClaytonFuller.jpg"},{"name":"Shawn Harris","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.shawnforgeorgia.com/html/assets/photos/2026/shawn-harris-northwest-georgia-portrait.webp"},{"name":"Andrew Underwood","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrew_Underwood26.jpg"},{"name":"Rob Ruszkowski","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RobRuszkowski2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Clayton Fuller","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Georgia's 14th is the most Republican district in the state (R+19 PVI), and incumbent Clayton Fuller already defeated the same Democratic opponent, Shawn Harris, in the April 2026 special runoff before taking 81.3% in the May GOP primary. With no general-election polling and third-party candidates drawing negligible prior support, the district's strong GOP lean points to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T02:22:23.221649Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0GA14030/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4GA14057/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/clay-fuller","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6GA14078/1917281/","https://rushcongress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ga-senate-2026","title":"2026 Georgia U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Georgia","state":"Georgia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T08:18:44.436072+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jon Ossoff","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jon_Ossoff.png"},{"name":"Mike Collins","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Collins.jpg"},{"name":"Allen Buckley","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Allen_Buckley.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jon Ossoff","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.085},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Ossoff has led every recent public survey, with September–October polls averaging roughly an 8-point margin and most showing him at or above 50%. His incumbency and a roughly $77 million to $6.5 million fundraising advantage reinforce the edge, though Georgia's narrow recent statewide results keep the race short of a lock.","takeaway":"Ossoff is clearly favored for a second term, though Georgia's battleground history leaves real upset risk.","key_reasons":["Ossoff leads all recent polling, with September–October surveys averaging about 8 points and several showing him at 50% or higher","He holds a dominant fundraising advantage, roughly $77.3 million raised versus $6.5 million for Collins, plus incumbency","Georgia remains a genuine battleground that Trump carried in 2024, so a Republican upset cannot be ruled out"],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Ossoff's consistent polling lead and fundraising dominance hold through the October debates in a state with a recent history of razor-thin statewide margins and meaningful polling error.","based_on_poll_count":13,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T14:04:16.669360Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GA-General-Full-Report-0912.pdf","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_georgia_senate","https://quantusinsights.org/f/ossoff-leads-collins-by-four-points-in-georgia-senate-race","https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collin-in-georgia/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/georgia-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html","https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf","https://insideradvantage.com/","https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/08/18/georgia-poll-ossoff-leads-senate-race-gubernatorial-contest-sits-dead-even/","https://wick.io/research-georgia-election-survey-june-2026","https://netchoice.org/new-72-of-americans-want-regulators-to-focus-on-lowering-prices-ahead-of-midterms-not-punishing-success/","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-early-look-georgia-senate-race","https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-georgia/","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2026-poll-senator-ossoff-starts-re-election-near-50-and-outpaces-gop-field/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEGA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEGA-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8GA00180/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/04/small-donors-vs-big-checks-fundraising-divide-shapes-georgia-senate-race/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/which-house-and-senate-candidates-lead-the-money-race","https://electjon.com/ossoff-raises-14-million-in-q1-of-2026-to-prepare-for-millions-in-spending-from-gop-super-pacs/","https://www.facebook.com/OpenSecrets/posts/sen-jonossoff-has-opened-a-large-early-fundraising-lead-in-the-georgia-senate-ra/1405237841647744/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jon-ossoff/us_congress/industries?cycle=2024&mpid=1124497","https://georgiarecorder.com/briefs/ossoff-rakes-in-another-20m-building-on-fundraising-advantage-in-race-for-georgia-senate-seat/","https://georgiarecorder.com/briefs/ossoff-raises-another-12-million-as-he-fights-for-reelection-in-closely-watched-2026-senate-race/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00544684/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mike-collins/us_congress/summary?mpid=1169014","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/trump-hypes-mike-collins-senate-campaign-georgia-rally-rcna588685","https://mikecollinsga.com/press","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-collins/industries?cid=N00035370&cycle=CAREER","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4GA11103/","https://synapvote.com/en/ussenate/georgia/dashboard"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEGA-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEGA-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.962,"yes_bid":0.961,"yes_ask":0.963,"last_price":0.962,"volume":456955.49,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:51.801908Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEGA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEGA-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEGA-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0375,"yes_bid":0.036,"yes_ask":0.039,"last_price":0.039,"volume":1088706.9,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:45:52.935295Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEGA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.085,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.045,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"hi-governor-2026","title":"2026 Hawaii Governor Election","office":"Governor","jurisdiction":"Hawaii","state":"Hawaii","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T04:03:48.461124+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Green","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Josh_Green.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Cordery","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gary_Cordery.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Green","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9726,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9726,"Republican":0.0274},"margin_estimate":27,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2010, and Green enters the general election with incumbency, a decisive primary win, and roughly $2 million on hand against a first-time nominee who has raised about $313,000 and largely spent it. Cordery offers no prior elected or legislative record, leaving him with little structural path in a state this blue.","takeaway":"Incumbent Gov. Josh Green is overwhelmingly favored to win a second term in this deeply Democratic state.","key_reasons":["Hawaii's strong Democratic lean and long Republican drought in the governor's office (no GOP governor since 2010)","Green's incumbency plus a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Cordery, who has nearly exhausted his funds and carries debt","Cordery lacks prior elected office or a legislative record, limiting his ability to build a credible statewide challenge"],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the estimate rests on Hawaii's partisan lean, incumbency, and the fundraising gap rather than direct voter surveys.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:03:44.269660Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYHI-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYHI-26-R","https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/2026%20Primary/histatewide.pdf","https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/07/see-whos-getting-and-giving-millions-in-campaign-funds-this-year/","https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2026/07/11/new-campaign-spending-reports-show-fundraising-gaps-across-key-hawaii-races/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6461769&default=candidate","https://ags.hawaii.gov/campaign/cc/cc-view-reports/fundraisers-2026-election/","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hawaii-gov-josh-green-cruises-democratic-primary-win-sets-fall-matchup-gop-nominee","https://ags.hawaii.gov/campaign/contribution-limits/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYHI-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYHI-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Hawaii","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9744999999999999,"yes_bid":0.969,"yes_ask":0.98,"last_price":0.98,"volume":6782.48,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:19.485903Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYHI-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYHI-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYHI-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Hawaii","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.027999999999999997,"yes_bid":0.02,"yes_ask":0.036,"last_price":0.035,"volume":3121.05,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:20.529581Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYHI-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.975,"Republican":0.025},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.005}},{"id":"hi-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Hawaii's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Hawaii's 1st Congressional District (urban Oahu — Honolulu, Aiea, Mililani, Pearl City, Waipahu, Waimalu)","state":"Hawaii","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:35:21.134196+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ed Case","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Ed_Case%2C_official_portrait%2C_117th_Congress.jpg?itok=ONnraFpU"},{"name":"Adriel Lam","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Profile-2026_20260704_222540_30891_1.jpg"},{"name":"Jordan Conley","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/20250203-164039_20260627_032218_30543_3.jpg"},{"name":"Nathan Berning","party":"Nonpartisan","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://lookaside.fbsbx.com/lookaside/crawler/instagram/nathan.berning/profile_pic.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ed Case","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Green":0.005,"Nonpartisan":0.005,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hawaii's 1st District is a solidly Democratic urban Oʻahu seat, and incumbent Ed Case pairs that structural advantage with roughly $1.1 million raised this cycle against little or no reported fundraising from Republican Adriel Lam, Green candidate Jordan Conley and nonpartisan Nathan Berning. With no general-election polling and the opposition split three ways, Case is an overwhelming favorite.","takeaway":"Ed Case is a heavy favorite to hold Hawaii's 1st District, buoyed by a strongly Democratic seat and a wide fundraising advantage.","key_reasons":["The district's urban Oʻahu electorate — Honolulu, Aiea, Mililani, Pearl City, Waipahu and Waimalu — is strongly Democratic-leaning and has not elected a Republican to this seat in decades, giving Case a large structural advantage.","Case holds a dominant resource edge, with about $1.1 million raised this cycle versus little or no reported fundraising from Republican Adriel Lam, Green candidate Jordan Conley and nonpartisan Nathan Berning.","Case's incumbency, name recognition and House Appropriations Committee seat, combined with an opposition split across three candidates, leave no evident path to a challenger win."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan composition, incumbency and campaign finance rather than measured voter preference.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:35:17.939610Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.hawaii.gov/u-s-representative/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/ed-case/summary?cid=N00025882&cycle=2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ed-case/donors","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/totals/?election_year=2026&office=H&state=HI&district=01&api_key=DEMO_KEY&per_page=20","https://civilbeat.org/2024/12/in-hawaii-congressional-fundraising-tokuda-far-outraised-case/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2HI02128/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/otals/?election_year=2026&office=H&state=HI&district=01&api_key=DEMO_KEY&per_page=20","https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/06/experience-or-new-energy-case-squares-off-against-keohokalole-for-congress/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6HI01360/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4HI00177/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jordan-conley","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6HI01386/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Green":0.005,"Nonpartisan":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.009,"Green":0.0005,"Nonpartisan":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":39,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Green":0.005,"Nonpartisan":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":32,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"hi-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Hawaii","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:29:54.901784+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jill Tokuda","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/Rep._Jill_Tokuda_official_photo%2C_118th_Congress_%281%29.jpg"},{"name":"Brenton Awa","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brenton-Awa.PNG"},{"name":"Edward Codelia","party":"Nonpartisan","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Edward-Codelia-Headshot-under-2MB_20260606_215005_29482_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jill Tokuda","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hawaii's 2nd District is a strongly Democratic seat that has never sent a Republican to Congress, and incumbent Jill Tokuda — who took ~91.6% in the August primary — is heavily favored to win a third term. Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa is a credible challenger but faces a deep partisan and structural disadvantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:29:38.254272Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/HI","https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/08/is-hawai%CA%BBi-better-off-without-independent-political-polling/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jill-tokuda/industries","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-hi-2","https://www.afge.org/publication/largest-federal-employee-union-endorses-hawaii-incumbents-for-reelection-to-congress/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6HI02426/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenton_Awa","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ia-governor-2026","title":"2026 Iowa Governor Election","office":"Governor of Iowa","jurisdiction":"Iowa","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T08:10:54.870116+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rob Sand","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rob_Sand_26_2026-05-11_162612.jpg"},{"name":"Zach Lahn","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Zach_Lahn_20260224_023356.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rob Sand","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.85,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.15},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Likely Democratic and gives Rob Sand (Democratic) a 85% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 7 points. The estimate draws on 12 public polls with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Rob Sand (Democratic) is favored, with a 85% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Likely Democratic (Rob Sand (Democratic): 85% chance of winning).","Polling: 12 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":12,"generated_at":"2026-10-04T20:07:21.616013Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/us/politics/governors-poll-democrats-lead.html","https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_september-24-28-2026_iowa_topline_october-1-release.pdf","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/","https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states","https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIA-26-D","https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/","https://taxrelief.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-06192026.pdf","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/upshot/polls-ohio-iowa-alaska-carolina.html","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-close-senate-contest-brewing-iowa","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIA-26-R","https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2026-07-21/rob-sand-zach-lahn-campaign-fundraising-donors","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/briefs/sand-breaks-iowa-fundraising-record-lahn-receives-large-party-pac-donations/","https://www.radioiowa.com/2026/05/20/2026-fundraising-sand-collects-record-9-6-million-lahn-outraises-feenstra/","https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/01/21/rob-sand-randy-feenstra-iowa-governor-race-fundraising-2026/88089689007/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYIA-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYIA-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.855,"yes_bid":0.85,"yes_ask":0.86,"last_price":0.85,"volume":421839.72,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:23.566657Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYIA-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYIA-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.155,"yes_bid":0.15,"yes_ask":0.16,"last_price":0.16,"volume":412729.86,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:24.728923Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.89,"Republican":0.11},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ia-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Iowa's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Iowa's 1st Congressional District","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:07:13.257167+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mariannette Miller-Meeks","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://drmillermeeks.com/_astro/headshot-peter-owens.BGhqHe9w_Z1NPQ4d.webp"},{"name":"Christina Bohannan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christina-Bohannon.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Bridgford","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael-Bridgford-Headshot_20260611_172343_29764_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Christina Bohannan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6499,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6499,"Independent":0.035,"Republican":0.3151},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Bohannan has led in each of the three published head-to-head surveys of this matchup, most recently 40-35 in the Bullfinch Group poll ended July 24, and a high-volume Kalshi market prices Democrats near 87%. Miller-Meeks' incumbency, the district's R+4 lean, and independent Michael Bridgford's 18% showing in the Wavefield Research survey ending October 2 keep the race genuinely competitive.","takeaway":"Bohannan holds a narrow edge in a closely divided rematch, with Miller-Meeks' incumbency and Bridgford's independent candidacy keeping the race unsettled.","key_reasons":["Bohannan leads in all three published head-to-head polls of the current field, including the most recent Bullfinch Group survey (40-35, ended July 24) and the three-way Independent Center survey (32-28.3-10.4, ended May 31).","Prediction markets strongly favor a Democratic win, with Kalshi pricing Democrats near 87% on September 15 on substantial volume.","Miller-Meeks' incumbency, the district's R+4 lean, and Bridgford's 18% independent vote in the Wavefield Research survey ending October 2 leave the outcome unsettled."],"uncertainty":"The newest survey reports only Bridgford's 18% share, the Kalshi prices date to September 15, and Miller-Meeks' 799-vote 2024 win shows how narrow this district's margins can be.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:59.522007Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/iowa/district-1","https://independentcentervoice.com/insights/may-2026-district-survey-independent-candidate-michael-bridgford-draws-10-support-with-minimal-name-recognition-in-iowas-1st-congressional-district","https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/new-polling-shows-christina-bohannan-leading-rep-mariannette-miller-meeks-in-ia-01","https://www.rcreader.com/news-releases/new-poll-independent-michael-bridgford-surges-18-three-way-iowa-01-race-posts-highest","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA1-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IA02043/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/iowa/federal/iowa-district-01/industries?cycle=2022","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/otsuka-pharmaceutical/summary?id=D000067671","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IA","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/23/rep-miller-meeks-and-bohannan-to-meet-for-third-consecutive-election-in-iowas-1st-district-on-november-3-2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IA02111/","https://jstreetpac.org/first-challenger-endorsements/","https://www.facebook.com/DispatchArgus/posts/democrat-christina-bohannan-pledged-to-reverse-medicaid-cuts-and-support-cancer-/1613783596777029/","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/chilmark-partners/recipients?id=D000032543","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA01213/","https://www.thegazette.com/news/politics/republicans-outspending-dem-candidates-in-u-s-house-races/article_c4f63734-870e-5b5b-a3df-6189f6e12f32.html"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIA1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEIA1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for IA-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.87,"yes_bid":0.86,"yes_ask":0.88,"last_price":0.87,"volume":209130.43,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:24:02.731324Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIA1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEIA1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for IA-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.125,"yes_bid":0.12,"yes_ask":0.13,"last_price":0.13,"volume":67483.53,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:24:05.027129Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.18,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.18,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.52,"Democratic":0.46,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.34}},{"id":"ia-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Iowa's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Iowa's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:11.724901+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Mitchell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/Joe_Mitchell_%28cropped2%29.jpg"},{"name":"Lindsay James","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/33/Member_of_the_Iowa_House_of_Representatives_Lindsay_James_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Stewart","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_Stewart__.jpg"},{"name":"Dave Bushaw","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DaveBushaw2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joe Mitchell","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.5999,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.5999,"Democratic":0.3823,"Independent":0.0089,"Libertarian":0.0089},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Iowa's 2nd District is an open seat that President Trump carried by roughly 10 points in 2024, giving Joe Mitchell a structural edge, while the two public head-to-head polls show Lindsay James ahead by 1 and 3 points. Both surveys are months old and one was sponsored by House Majority PAC, so the race stays close but tilts Republican.","takeaway":"Republicans are narrowly favored in this open Iowa seat, where the district's GOP lean outweighs James's slim polling leads.","key_reasons":["The open seat sits in a district President Trump carried by about 10 points in 2024, a Republican-leaning baseline that offsets the absence of an incumbent.","The two public head-to-head polls are close and both favor James: Global Strategy Group (ended July 19, 2026) had James 46, Mitchell 45, and Public Policy Polling (ended April 14, 2026) had James 36, Mitchell 33, with no public survey identified since July.","Mitchell holds a fundraising edge, roughly $1.94M raised and $859,964 cash on hand through mid-2026, along with President Trump's endorsement, while James raised about $1.63M with $755,578 cash on hand."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Mitchell's fundraising and endorsement edge outweigh James's narrow polling leads, with no public survey of the district identified since mid-July and two minor-party candidates whose vote share is hard to estimate.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:07.825880Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-lindsay-james-leads-in-ia-02","https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/general/iowa-2","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA02237/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00918979/","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/07/21/heres-who-is-leading-in-campaign-funding-for-iowas-midterm-races/","https://emilyslist.org/sound-the-alarm/sound-the-alarm-joe-mitchells-anti-corruption-hypocrisy-on-full-blast/","https://www.thegazette.com/news/elections/meet-the-republicans-running-for-iowa-s-open-2nd-congressional-district-seat/article_91d8a2a6-6435-4355-8a2f-9e2a75aa0ea9.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA02211/","https://ballotpedia.org/Lindsay_James","https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/29/lindsay-james-dccc-red-to-blue-iowa-2nd-house-race/91083453007/","https://ballotpedia.org/Rick_Stewart","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IA","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00926360/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/dave-bushaw","https://www.thegazette.com/news/politics/republicans-outspending-dem-candidates-in-u-s-house-races/article_c4f63734-870e-5b5b-a3df-6189f6e12f32.html"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.63,"Democratic":0.35,"Independent":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.56,"Democratic":0.43,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.52,"Democratic":0.46,"Libertarian":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ia-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Iowa's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Iowa's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:45.760173+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Zach Nunn","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Zach_Nunn.png"},{"name":"Sarah Trone Garriott","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SarahGarriott.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sarah Trone Garriott","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.66,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.66,"Republican":0.34},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Candidate-level polling here is thin and split: Ragnar Research Partners / Conservatives for America had Zach Nunn ahead 48-42 in March 2026, while Change Research had Sarah Trone Garriott ahead 45-42 in October 2025, leaving no reliable late read. Trone Garriott's fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, plus a Democratic-favoring prediction market, give her a narrow advantage in a district widely seen as a toss-up, tempered by Nunn's incumbency.","takeaway":"Democrats hold a modest edge in this toss-up Iowa district, with Sarah Trone Garriott favored to flip the seat.","key_reasons":["Trone Garriott leads the money race, with roughly $5.29M raised and $3.86M cash on hand through June 30, 2026, versus Nunn's $4.87M raised and $3.57M cash on hand.","Polling is sparse and mixed: the most recent 2026 survey (Ragnar Research Partners / Conservatives for America, March 12) showed Nunn +6, while the earlier Change Research poll (October 23, 2025) showed Trone Garriott +3.","The Kalshi market for this seat prices Democrats around 77%, though that reading dates to mid-September 2026 and is now stale."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Trone Garriott's fundraising edge and the Democratic-favoring market signal outweigh Nunn's incumbency, given that no candidate-preference poll has been released since March 2026 and the market reading is roughly three weeks old.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:41.059390Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/CFA_IA-CD-3_Benchmark_Analysis_v1.0_260323.pdf","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/iowa-us-house-3-polls-2026.html","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA3-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IA03119/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/zach-nunn/us_congress/industries?cycle=2024&mpid=1074949","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/04/17/democrats-outraise-gop-incumbents-in-2-house-races-hinson-leads-in-senate-funds/","https://dccc.org/the-case-against-zach-nunn-2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IA03119/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA03268/","https://www.instagram.com/p/Daf6_-JoJ3Q/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=49448363&default=candidate","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/16/house-dem-challengers-are-printing-money-01000665"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIA3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEIA3-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for IA-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.77,"yes_bid":0.76,"yes_ask":0.78,"last_price":0.78,"volume":45229.99,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:24:15.523995Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIA3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEIA3-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for IA-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.22,"yes_bid":0.21,"yes_ask":0.23,"last_price":0.24,"volume":26552.4,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:24:17.714054Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIA3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7,"Republican":0.3},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.66,"Republican":0.34},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.48,"Democratic":0.52},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"ia-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Iowa's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Iowa's 4th Congressional District","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:16:18.582313+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dave Dawson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dave_Dawson_20250903_022114.jpg"},{"name":"Chris McGowan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_McGowan_20260219_052329.png"},{"name":"Jermaine Decker","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-1747_20260802_164147_48938_4.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris McGowan","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.035,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"IA-04 is one of the most Republican districts in the country, and Republican Chris McGowan holds commanding advantages in fundraising, the Trump endorsement, and the only public measure available. Democrat Dave Dawson's legislative and prosecutorial background gives him a credible profile, but the district's partisan makeup makes a Democratic win highly unlikely in this open seat.","takeaway":"Republicans are heavily favored to win this open northwestern Iowa seat, with Chris McGowan the clear front-runner.","key_reasons":["IA-04 is a heavily Republican district where recent GOP House margins have run around 30+ points, and this open seat is rated solidly Republican.","McGowan has the Trump endorsement and a roughly 5x fundraising edge ($680K vs. $140K), and led the only public measure (State Fair straw poll) 71-30.","Independent write-in Jermaine Decker has no reported campaign finance activity and appears unlikely to materially alter the contest."],"uncertainty":"The only public measure is a non-scientific State Fair straw poll, so the true margin is uncertain even though the Republican win probability is very high.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:16:15.002058Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.rcreader.com/news-releases/iowa-secretary-state-paul-pate%E2%80%99s-2026-state-fair-straw-poll-shows-iowans%E2%80%99-2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/dave-dawson/donors","https://www.kcrg.com/2026/07/22/heres-who-is-leading-campaign-funding-iowas-midterm-races/","https://www.kwit.org/podcast/spm-news/2026-02-03/mcgowan-of-sioux-city-leads-all-iowa-4th-congressional-district-candidates-in-fundraising","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/07/21/heres-who-is-leading-in-campaign-funding-for-iowas-midterm-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA04167/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/chris-mcgowan/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IA04233/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.029,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.07,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ia-senate-2026","title":"2026 Iowa U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Iowa","state":"Iowa","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:07:08.216295+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ashley Hinson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/428px-Ashley_Hinson.jpg"},{"name":"Josh Turek","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Josh_Turek_20250901_100606.jpg"},{"name":"Thomas Laehn","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-1249_20260624_043918_30377_1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.54,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.45,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.54},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The freshest surveys are effectively tied, with Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (Oct 9) and CNN/SSRS (Oct 8) showing Hinson +2 while Suffolk University (Oct 7) and Rasmussen Reports (Oct 2) show Turek +4. Iowa's Republican lean and Hinson's larger war chest give her a narrow structural edge, but Turek's grassroots fundraising and several credible polls showing him ahead keep this an open-seat toss-up.","takeaway":"Iowa's open Senate seat is a genuine toss-up, with Hinson's Republican-leaning state fundamentals and spending edge offsetting Turek's competitive polling.","key_reasons":["October polling is essentially even and mixed: Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (Oct 9) Hinson +2, CNN/SSRS (Oct 8) Hinson +2, Suffolk University (Oct 7) Turek +4, Siena College (Oct 3) Hinson +1, Rasmussen Reports (Oct 2) Turek +4, Fox News (Oct 1) Turek +2.","Iowa's Republican-leaning fundamentals (Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024; no Democratic Senate win since 2008) plus Hinson's fundraising advantage and a $29 million Senate Leadership Fund ad buy give her a slight edge in this open, Republican-held seat.","Turek's grassroots-funded campaign (about $6.28 million raised, with $2.8 million in the May-July period outpacing Hinson's $2.0 million) and multiple polls showing him narrowly ahead keep the race genuinely competitive."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Iowa's Republican lean and Hinson's spending advantage outweigh Turek's polling strength and late fundraising surge; no prediction-market signals are available and third-party support is thinly polled.","based_on_poll_count":22,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:07:01.194561Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-u-s-senate-race-tightens-sand-maintains-edge-for-governor/","https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28729018-cnn-iowa-poll-conducted-by-ssrs/","https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_7_2026_iowa_statewide_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=2D72AC4AC373F8C2FA39466A7E5CD59D2370B6F9","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_iowa_senate2","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-iowa-poll-crosstabs.html","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-senate-race","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/","https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections.pdf","https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-insights-hinson-holds-narrow-edge-in-iowa-senate-race","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/iowa","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/","https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IA-Midterms-Full-Report-0918.pdf","https://insideradvantage.com/ia-topline-tabs/","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/","https://taxrelief.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-06192026.pdf","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll/","https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/06/22/congress/iowa-senate-turek-hinson-poll-00969578","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6IA00314/","https://senateleadershipfund.org/press-releases/slf-announces-initial-29-million-investment-in-iowas-u-s-senate-race/","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/07/21/heres-who-is-leading-in-campaign-funding-for-iowas-midterm-races/","https://www.thegazette.com/news/elections/national/ashley-hinson-holds-big-cash-advantage-in-iowa-s-u-s-senate-campaign/article_7a6ff751-bec0-4d06-90c5-e73dedcea726.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/ashley-hinson/industries?cid=N00044521&cycle=2024&type=C","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ashley-hinson/us_congress/summary?mpid=1096169","https://legis1.com/news/ashley-hinson-2026-senate-leads-iowa-race","https://ashleyhinson.com/ashley-hinson-enters-2026-with-5-1-million-cash-on-hand-for-u-s-senate-race/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6IA00298/","https://turek4iowa.com/news/fueled-by-grassroots-momentum-and-iowans-in-all-99-counties-josh-turek-raised-over-3-8-million-in-second-quarter-of-2026/","https://turek4iowa.com/","https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/17/iowa-campaign-finance-reports-us-senate-race-election-2026/90840437007/","https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/526/202605289870312526/202605289870312526.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6IA00181/","https://www.iowapublicradio.org/political-news/2025-10-11/libertarian-candidate-thomas-laehn-u-s-senate-race-2026","https://lp.org/candidate/thomas-laehn/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.63,"Democratic":0.36,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.54,"Democratic":0.45,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.53,"Democratic":0.45,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"id-governor-2026","title":"2026 Idaho Governor Election","office":"Governor of Idaho","jurisdiction":"Idaho","state":"Idaho","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T14:06:30.159413+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Little","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/Brad_Little_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Terri Pickens","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TerriPickensManweiler2025.jpg"},{"name":"John R. Stegner","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Untitled-design-_3__20260813_181633_32664_1.png"},{"name":"Paul Sand","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PaulSand.jpg"},{"name":"Pro-Life","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/plife.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Little","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9533,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.001,"Democratic":0.0248,"Independent":0.0199,"Libertarian":0.001,"Republican":0.9533},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Idaho's R+18 lean, the absence of any Democratic statewide win since 2002, and incumbent Brad Little's large fundraising edge make a Republican hold the overwhelming likelihood. The September four-way survey puts Little at 37.3% to Pickens's 27.2% and Stegner's 12.8%, while a July Change Research head-to-head showed Stegner ahead of Little 51-35, so the size of the win is less certain than the winner.","takeaway":"Little is overwhelmingly favored to win a third term in a deeply Republican state despite a fragmented opposition.","key_reasons":["Idaho is deeply Republican (R+18) and has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2002, giving Little a structural advantage that no challenger has overcome.","Little led the field with roughly $2.1 million raised, far outpacing Stegner (~$393,000) and Pickens (~$142,000), and the September four-way poll has him at 37.3% versus 27.2% for Pickens and 12.8% for Stegner.","Opposition is split across a Democratic nominee, an independent, and two minor-party candidates, and prediction markets price a Republican win near 97%."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse and mixed: a July Change Research head-to-head showed Stegner leading Little 51-35, so the margin is uncertain even though the Republican hold is not, and the market's modest volume and wide bid/ask spread temper precision.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T14:06:23.034979Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["http://isidahopurple.com/races/governor","https://idahovoters.com/person/john-r-stegner/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYID-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYID-26-R","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/08/04/idaho-governors-race-pickens-stegner-say-they-are-in-it-to-win-it/","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/07/independent-john-stegner-launches-campaign-for-idaho-governor/","https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/stegner-criticizes-little-legislature-in-gubernatorial-campaign-kickoff/","https://www.idahopress.com/news/local/paul-sand-libertarian-idaho-governor-campaign-tax-plan/article_7020600b-ec07-4558-b0a7-77ef2e4c5dac.html"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYID-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYID-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Idaho","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0225,"yes_bid":0.009,"yes_ask":0.036,"last_price":0.038,"volume":2985.13,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:27.017129Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYID-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYID-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYID-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Idaho","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.973,"yes_bid":0.96,"yes_ask":0.986,"last_price":0.986,"volume":5298.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:27.996568Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYID-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.025,"Independent":0.013,"Libertarian":0.001,"Constitution":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9681,"Democratic":0.01,"Independent":0.02,"Libertarian":0.001,"Constitution":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.03,"Libertarian":0.005,"Constitution":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.048}},{"id":"id-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Idaho's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Idaho's 1st Congressional District","state":"Idaho","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:22:13.923014+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Russ Fulcher","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RUSS_FULCHER.jpg"},{"name":"Kaylee Peterson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KayleePeterson2024.png"},{"name":"Brendan Gomez","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Sarah Zabel","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sarah_Zabel_2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Russ Fulcher","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.02,"Other":0},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Idaho's 1st is a deeply Republican seat (R+22; Trump +45 in 2024), and the only poll of the actual four-way field shows Fulcher at 46% versus 25% for the leading challenger. A separate head-to-head survey found independent Zabel ahead, but she registers in the low single digits whenever the full field is included, leaving the incumbent with a commanding advantage.","takeaway":"Fulcher remains heavily favored to win a fourth term in Idaho's safely Republican 1st District.","key_reasons":["Deeply Republican district fundamentals (R+22, Trump +45 in 2024) strongly anchor the GOP incumbent","Only poll of the actual four-way field shows Fulcher 46% vs. 25% for Peterson, with Zabel at just 4%","Incumbency and a large fundraising advantage (~$663K raised vs. ~$181K Peterson and ~$81K Zabel)"],"uncertainty":"Only two public surveys exist and they diverge sharply between head-to-head (Zabel ahead) and full-field (Fulcher +20) formats, so the independent candidate's late-campaign trajectory is the main unknown.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:50:59.001840Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/idaho-us-house-1-polls-2026.html","https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2080339724204487047","https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/08/18/us-district-1-candidates-idahoans-face-high-healthcare-costs-heres-how-they-want-to-fix-it/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00648295/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/russ-fulcher/summary","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/russ-fulcher","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2ID01192/","https://www.idahoednews.org/news/heres-who-is-running-for-u-s-congress-and-how-much-money-they-have-raised/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Idaho","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u","https://ivoterguide.com/candidate/79716/race/1340/election/1209","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ID01318/","https://insideelections.com/person/sarah-zabel/"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"id-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Idaho's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Idaho's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Idaho","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T18:54:48.488987+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Simpson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0e/Mike_simpson_official_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Elinor Gilbreath","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Elinor_Gilbreath_20260305_052141.jpg"},{"name":"Idaho Law","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Oct72020530AM_80182230_IdahoLawPicDLCongressforIL.png"},{"name":"Will Johanson","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/942104/942104.jpg"},{"name":"Emre Houser","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/942105/942105.jpg"},{"name":"Tripp Hutchinson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/mtexpress.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/5c/25c57522-6d61-11ee-8471-573f5de5a614/652f482300a7a.image.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Simpson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.01,"Libertarian":0.004,"Independent":0.004,"Constitution":0.002},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Fourteen-term Republican incumbent Mike Simpson holds an entrenched structural advantage in a strongly Republican district (roughly R+13), clearing the primary with 63.3% and out-raising his Democratic challenger about tenfold. With no public polling and a divided, low-funded challenger field, the only real uncertainty is the final margin, not the winner.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T18:54:29.509015Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8ID02064/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ID02274/","https://idahonews.com/politics/know-your-candidates/2026-general-election-survey-us-house-of-representatives-district-2","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-simpson/summary?cid=N00006263&cycle=2026","https://www.idahoednews.org/news/heres-who-is-running-for-u-s-congress-and-how-much-money-they-have-raised/","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2022/06/15/idahos-federal-lawmakers-take-gun-money-wont-comment-on-gun-control-policies/","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mike-simpson?mpid=1047907","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/elinor-gilbreath","https://secure.actblue.com/directory/ID","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/ID","https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_Law","https://ballotpedia.org/Will_Johanson","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ID02282/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ID02241/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tripp-hutchinson/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"id-senate-2026","title":"2026 Idaho U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Idaho","state":"Idaho","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T13:21:13.653385+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim Risch","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Risch.jpg"},{"name":"Todd Achilles","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/faculty/photos/_large/ToddAchilles_May2023.jpg"},{"name":"Natalie Fleming","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://janrvuropqrnptyieksp.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/politician-images/natalie-fleming-1778315781499.jpg"},{"name":"Matt Loesby","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MattLoesby2024.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Risch","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9446,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.0001,"Independent":0.0502,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.9446},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Idaho's deep Republican lean, Risch's incumbency, Trump's endorsement, and a roughly $4.5 million-to-$1 million fundraising edge make him a heavy favorite. Polling is genuinely split — a September 16 survey showed Achilles narrowly ahead 45.5% to 39.4%, while a September 30 survey showed Risch up 25 — but the state's baseline and resource gap point to a comfortable Risch win.","takeaway":"Risch is heavily favored in solidly Republican Idaho, though sharply divergent polling leaves the final margin uncertain.","key_reasons":["Idaho is a deeply Republican state with no non-Republican Senate winner since 1974, so a challenger would need an implausible swing to win.","Risch holds a large incumbency, name-recognition, and money advantage (about $4.5M raised and $3.5M cash on hand versus roughly $1M for Achilles), plus Trump's endorsement and a 67.3% primary win.","Polling is sharply divergent: a September 16 survey had Achilles ahead by about 6 points, while a September 30 survey had Risch ahead by 25, and prediction markets price Republicans near 92-93%."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on how much weight to give sharply conflicting surveys — one September poll showed Achilles narrowly ahead while another showed Risch up 25 — compounded by the vacant Democratic ballot line and the absence of neutral, high-quality polling.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T13:21:04.422625Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.poliwave.com/us/id/sen-fed","https://senatorrisch.com/aug-poll/","https://x.com/PoliticsPoll/status/2106138570532794875","https://senatorrisch.com/polling/","https://www.ellisinsight.com/senate/idaho-in-play/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEID-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEID-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8ID00092/","https://www.idahostatejournal.com/townnews/politics/achilles-draws-third-party-endorsement-risch-unmoved-as-two-set-to-face-off/article_858fd7e2-aa19-5887-a192-07a1477dd108.html","https://www.dnews.com/northwest/in-risch-race-polls-vary-widely-392d7a72","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/james-e-risch/us_congress/summary?mpid=1148777","https://www.idahoednews.org/news/heres-who-is-running-for-u-s-congress-and-how-much-money-they-have-raised/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/james-e-risch/us_congress/industries?cycle=2024&mpid=1148777","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00909309/","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/08/05/risch-v-achilles-may-be-idahos-most-competitive-us-senate-race-in-years-heres-where-they-stand/","https://www.lmtribune.com/local-news/achilles-says-his-campaign-is-on-the-rise-a138a1f8","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00726877/","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEID-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEID-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Idaho?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0025,"yes_bid":0.002,"yes_ask":0.003,"last_price":0.003,"volume":58816.96,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:00.412044Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEID-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEID-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEID-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in 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Pritzker","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.025},"margin_estimate":17.5,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois has voted Democratic in every presidential race since 1992 and Democrats hold every statewide office, while Pritzker's self-funding ($90.5M this cycle, $439M lifetime) dwarfs Bailey's roughly $2.2M raised and $128K cash on hand. The one named-pollster survey shows Pritzker ahead 54.3-34.0, and the later reported 56-38 result points the same direction, consistent with a double-digit win.","takeaway":"Pritzker is a heavy favorite for a third term in a solidly Democratic Illinois, with a large funding and polling edge over Bailey.","key_reasons":["Strong Democratic baseline in Illinois plus Pritzker's incumbency advantage; he defeated Bailey by about 12.5 points in 2022","Overwhelming financial disparity: Pritzker's $90.5M cycle self-funding versus Bailey's ~$2.2M raised and ~$128K cash on hand, with no 2026 Uihlein-scale mega-donor","Available polling (Victory Research 54.3-34.0) and prediction markets (~97% Democratic) both indicate a large Pritzker lead"],"uncertainty":"Polling is thin — only one named-pollster survey exists, and the later 56-38 result lacks an identified pollster or sample size — while independent candidate Collin Corbett's ballot access and the unusual forum-only format add modest uncertainty to the size, though not the direction, of the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:02:54.490768Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/illinois-jb-pritzker-poll-nov-25.amp","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIL-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIL-26-R","https://www.transparencyusa.org/il/race/governor-of-illinois-76687","https://capitolnewsillinois.com/news/with-65m-infusion-pritzker-has-now-self-funded-439m-since-2018-campaign-launch/","https://chicago.suntimes.com/2026/08/17/gov-jb-pritzker-pours-65m-into-his-campaign-fund-ahead-of-november-elections","https://www.theillinoize.com/articles/gop-falls-further-behind-fundraising","https://www.transparencyusa.org/il/candidate/jb-pritker","https://www.transparencyusa.org/il/candidate/darren-bailey","https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2026/07/17/illinois-gop-trails-democrats-badly-midterm-cash-darren-bailey-jb-pritzker-rich-miller","https://www.thedailyline.com/bailey-raises-330-000-large-donations-second-quarter-corbett-loans-500-000-campaign","https://chicago.suntimes.com/the-watchdogs/2026/08/17/darren-bailey-campaign-money-registered-sex-offender-victor-barr-pastor-faith-center-rockford","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/08/10/jb-pritzker-darren-bailey-ag-forum/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYIL-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYIL-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Illinois","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.972,"yes_bid":0.965,"yes_ask":0.979,"last_price":0.965,"volume":83228.86,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:30.503925Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIL-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYIL-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYIL-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Illinois","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0325,"yes_bid":0.026,"yes_ask":0.039,"last_price":0.039,"volume":26923.75,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:31.565602Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYIL-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"il-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 1st Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:30:13.527794+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jonathan Jackson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/24/Rep._Jonathan_Jackson_official_portrait%2C_118th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Christian Maxwell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ChristianMaxwell2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jonathan Jackson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Illinois' 1st District is a deeply Democratic seat anchored in Chicago's South Side and southern suburbs, and Democratic primary results (89,662 to 15) underscore the district's partisan edge. Incumbent Jonathan Jackson holds a roughly 6.6-to-1 fundraising advantage over Republican Christian Maxwell (~$418k vs ~$63k), with no polling or market signal suggesting any competitive dynamic.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:43:00.472412Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL01349/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL01191/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/christian-maxwell","https://www.fec.gov/ata/candidate/H2IL01349/","https://chicagomaron.com/44543/election-24/the-money-behind-the-candidates/","https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/fact-check-team-nation-donors-reshape-congressional-campaigns-actblue-winred-strategy-democrats-republicans-senate-house","https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2022/6/19/23174008/crypto-currency-billionaire-pac-spending-almost-1-million-in-illinois-congress-contests"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 2nd Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:53:26.168955+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Donna Miller","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6852f54c5434617b2407de16/1f468901-1ee7-4b54-9241-18fd7d5e3383/Donna-headshot-web.png"},{"name":"Mike Noack","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/mnoack.jpg"},{"name":"Ashley Banks","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ashley_Banks_20251110_122530.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Donna Miller","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois' 2nd District is a heavily Democratic open seat (Cook PVI D+18) that Democrats have held for decades, and Democratic nominee Donna Miller brings strong fundraising and Cook County Board experience against an unopposed-primary Republican and a write-in independent. No general-election polling exists, so the forecast rests on the district's partisan lean and candidate context rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T18:53:15.172301Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL02355/","https://heartlandsignal.com/2026/02/19/aipac-linked-donors-help-fuel-illinois-donna-millers-fundraising-haul-in-illinois-congressional-race/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/13/chicago-area-congressional-primaries/","https://apnews.com/article/illinois-chicago-us-house-senate-elections-campaign-finance-spending-024edf168fdb09c0d0a08a75152d9217","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/04/us/politics/aipac-israel-funds-spending.html","https://www.hpherald.com/evening_digest/out-of-state-donors-propel-donna-miller-to-fundraising-lead/article_e7a30f4f-7a33-43bc-bc00-5e25cf63d49f.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL02389/","http://noack4congress.com/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/illinois-district-2-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL02371/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:46:10.458862+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Delia Ramirez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Delia_Ramirez.jpg"},{"name":"Angel Oakley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Angel_Oakley_20240808_092020.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Delia Ramirez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois's 3rd District is a safely Democratic seat, and incumbent Delia Ramirez holds decisive advantages in incumbency, name recognition, and fundraising (over $946k cash on hand vs. roughly $3.7k for Angel Oakley). No 2026 general-election polling exists, so the call rests on strong partisan fundamentals and candidate strength rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-26T13:28:08.740644Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL03162/","https://www.dailyherald.com/20260718/us-congress-politics/big-gaps-between-democratic-republican-campaign-coffers-in-suburban-house-races/","https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/08/democrats-corporate-pac-money-2026-campaign-finance-federal-government/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL03163/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00796672/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/20/congressional-house-races-contributions/","https://www.libertyangel.us/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 4th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:51:55.302078+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Patty Garcia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Patty_Garcia_20251209_080118.png"},{"name":"Lupe Castillo","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lupe_Castillo_20240826_050308.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Getty","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/gettychris_2026-07-16_033227.jpg"},{"name":"Ed Hershey","party":"Working Class Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Edward_Hershey.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Patty Garcia","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"IL-04 is a heavily Democratic, majority-Latino open seat, and Patty Garcia carries the institutional edge as the outgoing incumbent's former chief of staff, backed by strong fundraising ($358k) and CHC BOLD PAC's endorsement. The lone public poll shows her leading a fragmented field 34%-15%-9%-4%, with 37% still undecided.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:26:28.956043Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://independentcentervoice.com/insights/july-2026-district-survey-illinoiss-4th-congressional-district","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL04153/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/IL/4","https://thejacket.cc/","https://www.chicagogop.com/lupe_for_congress_il_04","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL04195/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/il/candidate/christopher-getty/contributors","https://chicago.suntimes.com/the-watchdogs/2025/10/31/lyons-mayor-chris-getty-campaign-loan-federal-tax-lien-state-elections-board","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL04178/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2024","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2022","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IL04117/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 5th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T05:47:14.166930+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Quigley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Quigley.jpg"},{"name":"Tom Hanson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/T._Hanson_Photo.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Quigley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois' 5th is a heavily Democratic seat that Mike Quigley has held since 2009, and he faces a repeat, underfunded Republican challenger in a two-candidate general election field with no public polling showing any competitiveness. Quigley's roughly $1.19M cash on hand versus Hanson's absence of reported campaign finance further reinforces the incumbent's overwhelming structural advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:46:54.268642Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IL","https://ballotpedia.org/Mike_Quigley","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0IL05096/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_17_Republican_primary)","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-quigley/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-quigley/industries","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/mike-quigley-il","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=IL05"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 6th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T14:06:31.242387+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sean Casten","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sean_Casten.png"},{"name":"Niki Conforti","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/NikiConforti2.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sean Casten","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.1},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten won this suburban Chicago district by roughly eight points in the 2024 rematch and holds a wide fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican Niki Conforti. The only head-to-head poll of these two candidates, a July 2024 COR Strategies survey, showed Casten ahead 44-35, and no current-cycle public polling has been identified.","takeaway":"Casten is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning suburban Chicago seat, though the absence of fresh polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["Casten is the incumbent in a district he carried by about eight points in 2024 (54.2%-45.8%) against the same Republican opponent, and the seat has leaned Democratic in recent cycles.","Casten reported roughly $1.3M cash on hand as of June 30, 2026, versus about $23K for Conforti, a resource gap that limits the challenger's ability to close the gap down the stretch.","The only head-to-head poll of the current candidates, COR Strategies' July 2024 survey, put Casten ahead 44-35, but it is stale and no 2026 public polling was located."],"uncertainty":"No current-cycle public polling exists — the only head-to-head survey is from July 2024 — so the forecast rests on district partisanship, incumbency and fundraising rather than fresh horse-race data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T14:06:27.671432Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://conforti4congress.com/media-press-release-07212024/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/illinois-6/forecast/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IL06139/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/sean-casten/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1133606","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/20/congressional-house-races-contributions/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL06090/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/niki-conforti"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"il-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 7th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:10:26.146518+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"La Shawn Ford","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LaShawn-Ford.jpg"},{"name":"Chad Koppie","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chad_Koppie.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"La Shawn Ford","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois' 7th is an overwhelmingly Democratic Chicago-based district where Democratic nominees routinely win by 75-80 point-style margins, and the GOP challenger received only ~17% here in 2024. Democratic nominee La Shawn Ford, a veteran state legislator with a deep local base, is heavily favored over a self-funded Republican with negligible resources.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:46:59.192465Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?ID=Z2J%2fvYpKX8w%3d&OfficeType=LpWf6lpbWOfBN3kEuxRi3A%3d%3d","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00905893/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL08203/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 8th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T22:13:20.270247+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Melissa Bean","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Melissa_Bean.jpg"},{"name":"Jennifer Davis","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jennifer_Davis_20251125_045243.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Melissa Bean","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Likely Democratic and gives Melissa Bean (Democratic) a 91% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 14 points. No head-to-head public poll between the current candidates was available, so the estimate rests on non-polling evidence.","takeaway":"Melissa Bean (Democratic) is favored, with a 91% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Likely Democratic (Melissa Bean (Democratic): 91% chance of winning).","Polling: 0 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:13:14.832661Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL08088/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/02/02/illinois-congressional-fundraising-2025/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/chart-of-the-week-outside-groups-spend-millions-on-house-primaries/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/20/congressional-house-races-contributions/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL08311/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/illinois/federal/illinois-district-08","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jennifer-davis/donors","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/IL/8","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/10/17/illinois-fundraising-congressional-races/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"il-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 9th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T15:10:46.237331+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Daniel K. Biss","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/637570324402870000.jpg"},{"name":"John Elleson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Elleson.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Daniel K. Biss","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Illinois' 9th is a heavily Democratic open seat (Cook PVI D+19) created by Rep. Schakowsky's retirement, and Daniel K. Biss—a credible former state senator and sitting Evanston mayor—won the primary with a substantial fundraising advantage (~$2.9M) over a GOP pastor who has never held elected office and reported little to no fundraising. No general-election polling exists, but the partisan structure makes a Democratic hold virtually certain.","takeaway":"Democrats are virtually certain to hold this deeply Democratic Chicago-area open seat.","key_reasons":["The 9th District is a heavily Democratic seat (Cook PVI D+19) that has not elected a Republican in modern decades","Biss is a well-established former state senator and Evanston mayor with a roughly $2.9M fundraising advantage","The GOP nominee has never held elected office and reported little to no campaign fundraising"],"uncertainty":"No qualifying general-election poll exists, but the district's extreme Democratic lean makes the outcome highly predictable regardless.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T05:42:19.093749Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/illinois/district-9","https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/EOPDFViewer.aspx?ElectionID=sejIrI%2BQmww%3D&QueryType=xF443FTCAJbIL3atac%2FUjEg7Y4yklgT1&FileDate=rVxA%2FkYn5zWvncN%2BrowbA2ctWFP%2BOjT5&Status=P2wRQXkiFoo%3D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL09228/","https://dailynorthwestern.com/2026/02/02/city/abughazaleh-biss-fine-lead-fundraising-as-11-million-floods-congressional-race/","https://evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/01/fine-and-biss-lead-in-cash-abughazaleh-raised-and-spent-big-entering-2026-disclosures-show/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IL09224/","https://www.dailyherald.com/20260318/us-congress-politics/biss-elleson-thank-voters-after-winning-9th-congressional-district-nominations/"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"il-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 10th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:18:00.720446+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Schneider","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brad_Schneider.jpg"},{"name":"Carl Lambrecht","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://patch.com/img/cdn/users/41475/2011/03/raw/66ddacfd1eb6392c25e2be0324935df2.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Schneider","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Brad Schneider represents a strongly Democratic-leaning North Shore district that has shifted leftward in recent cycles, and he holds a decisive financial edge (~$1.7M cash on hand) against a Republican challenger with no reported federal fundraising. The district's partisan lean and Schneider's incumbency make a Democratic hold highly probable despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:12:21.233283Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL10068/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/20/congressional-house-races-contributions/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00495952/","https://www.dailyherald.com/20260718/us-congress-politics/big-gaps-between-democratic-republican-campaign-coffers-in-suburban-house-races/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=2671149&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 11th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:13:46.114194+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bill Foster","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Bill_Foster%2C_Official_Portrait%2C_113th_Congress.jpg?utm_source=commons.wikimedia.org&utm_campaign=index&utm_content=original"},{"name":"Jeff Walter","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.chicagotribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ctc-l-jeffwalter-mayorelburnil.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bill Foster","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"No public polling exists, but this Democratic-leaning exurban district (D+6 PVI, Foster winning 55-63% in recent cycles) plus roughly a 100-to-1 cash-on-hand edge make a Democratic hold highly probable. Walter is a credible but lightly funded first-time federal candidate with no district-wide track record.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:13:29.985122Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://applications.kanecountyil.gov/ElectionWebsite/en-US/Candidates/List/31/NP","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IL14067/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL11166/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IL"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 12th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:10:20.325749+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Bost","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/02/Mike_Bost_117th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Julie Fortier","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Julie_Fortier_20260105_033053.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Bost","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"IL-12 is one of the most Republican-leaning districts in Illinois, and six-term incumbent Mike Bost holds a commanding fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over first-time Democratic challenger Julie Fortier. With no public polling and a lopsided structural environment, a Republican hold is overwhelmingly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:10:08.074863Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IL12060/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL12131/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/mike-bost-il","https://www.juliefortier.org/issues"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 13th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:02:43.221169+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nikki Budzinski","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Rep_Nikki_Budzinski%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Jeff Wilson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jeff_Wilson_2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nikki Budzinski","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.1},"margin_estimate":13.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Budzinski defends a Democratic-leaning district she carried by 16 points in 2024, and her roughly $2.63 million cash on hand dwarfs Wilson's roughly $12,200, leaving the challenger little room to close the gap. With no public polling logged, the case rests on incumbency, partisan lean and the resource disparity rather than measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Budzinski is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district's Democratic lean and Budzinski's 16-point 2024 win give the incumbent a strong structural baseline.","A lopsided resource gap: about $2.63 million cash on hand for Budzinski versus roughly $12,200 for Wilson, who also carries about $195,600 in self-loan debt and minimal committee support.","No public polling or prediction-market signal exists, so the estimate leans on incumbency, partisan lean and fundraising rather than direct horse-race data."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether a midterm environment that often favors the out-party can offset Budzinski's incumbency and cash advantage, and with no polling logged the margin estimate carries wide error bars.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:02:40.512933Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/illinois-13/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/IL/13/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL13153/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/nikki-budzinski","https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/nikki-budzinski-jeff-wilson-illinois-13-eection-22229092.php","https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/nikki-budzinski-jeff-wilson-illinois-13-election-22229092.php","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL13154/","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"il-house-14-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois' 14th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:22:41.109329+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lauren Underwood","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LAUREN_UNDERWOOD.jpg"},{"name":"James Marter","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/james-1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lauren Underwood","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood, first elected in 2018 and now a four-term congresswoman, holds a decisive fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican James Marter, who lost to her as the 2024 GOP nominee. With the race rated Solid Democratic and no public polling available, the forecast rests on incumbency, finance, and prior-cycle results rather than direct voter data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:18:14.497436Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/17/2026-primary-day-election-results-14th-congressional-district-of-illinois/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/IL/14","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IL14174/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00652719/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44044644&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IL16153/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-15-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 15th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T16:06:12.161928+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mary Miller","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mary_Miller.jpg"},{"name":"Jennifer Todd","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jennifer_Todd_20250506_095314.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mary Miller","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois's 15th is a deep-red R+20 seat where three-term Republican incumbent Mary Miller, who took 73.6% in the March primary, holds a dominant incumbency and fundraising edge over first-time Democratic nominee Jennifer Todd. With no public polling, the call rests on the district's strong partisan lean and incumbent advantages rather than survey data.","takeaway":"Republican incumbent Mary Miller is overwhelmingly favored to hold this deep-red, R+20 Illinois district.","key_reasons":["Deep-red district with an R+20 Cook PVI","Three-term incumbent with a commanding cash advantage ($833K vs. $9K cash on hand)","First-time, modestly funded Democratic challenger in a heavily conservative seat"],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race as of late August 2026, so the margin and probabilities are inferred from district partisanship and incumbency rather than measured voter sentiment.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:16:23.189302Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IL","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mary-miller/summary","https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/mary-miller-fundraising-lead-illinois-15th-donate-22232429.php"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"il-house-16-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 16th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T15:42:29.771665+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Darin LaHood","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Darin_LaHood.jpg"},{"name":"Paul Nolley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Paul_Nolley_20250521_050524.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Darin LaHood","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Darin LaHood runs in an R+11 district that has been held by Republicans for 98 of the last 100 years and holds a roughly 30-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage ($6.75M vs. $230K) over first-time challenger Paul Nolley. No polling exists, and no structural signal suggests the seat is competitive, leaving Nolley as a well-funded but long-shot labor-backed challenger.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T15:42:05.496331Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL18088/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL16108/","https://www.wglt.org/local-news/2026-07-20/lahood-sorensen-have-big-cash-advantages-in-reelection-bids","https://www.wifr.com/2025/12/17/democrat-paul-nolley-gains-union-endorsements-bid-16th-congressional-seat/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/darin-lahood/summary","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Corporate+PACs+have+already+spent+over+%2466+million+on+the+2026+Midterms","https://charlesrhoward.medium.com/we-traced-1-2m-in-timeshare-industry-money-heres-where-it-went-206f6ec90ef4","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00631051/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-il-16/compare/darin-lahood-vs-paul-nolley","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_17_Democratic_primary)","https://www.instagram.com/p/DSOJ3Z9ki1H/?hl=en","https://www.wcbu.org/local-news/2025-05-12/a-rockford-democrat-wants-to-offer-a-different-vision-in-illinois-16th-congressional-district"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"il-house-17-2026","title":"2026 Illinois's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Illinois's 17th Congressional District","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:53.261405+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Eric Sorensen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://run.imgix.net/771bce10-b7fd-4cd9-ad5b-623110493be8/fd0fc193-551a-4885-b170-3b28b3031b8e/fd0fc193-551a-4885-b170-3b28b3031b8e.jpeg?ixlib=js-3.8.0&bri=0&con=0&sat=0&high=0&shad=0&usm=0&rect=1610%2C251%2C4488%2C4901"},{"name":"Dillan Vancil","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.shawlocal.com/resizer/v2/IQI7FJSXBJGNFDSIHBNW3J4HLE.jpg?auth=d9f41c26a4d7c95be421e838cbb8746ff65356233bedb03f3a8360604c039095&width=800&height=1000&focal=502%2C457"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Eric Sorensen","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.89,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.89,"Republican":0.11},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Eric Sorensen holds a large resource advantage — about $1.33 million in cash on hand versus roughly $56,700 for Dillan Vancil at the end of June 2026 — in a district that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. A September prediction market priced a Democratic win near 96%, though the absence of any public head-to-head polling keeps this short of a safe rating.","takeaway":"Sorensen is clearly favored to hold IL-17, buoyed by incumbency, a wide fundraising edge and a Democratic-leaning district.","key_reasons":["Sorensen is the sitting representative in a competitive but Democratic-leaning district, giving him name recognition and an incumbency edge over a first-time candidate.","Sorensen reported roughly $1.33 million in cash on hand versus about $56,700 for Vancil at the end of June 2026, a decisive spending advantage in a race with no public polling.","Kalshi's IL-17 market priced a Democratic win near 96% as of September 15, 2026, with a tight bid/ask spread, corroborating the Democratic advantage."],"uncertainty":"No public head-to-head polling exists for this race, the district has flipped between parties in recent cycles, and the market signal is from mid-September, so a Republican upset cannot be fully ruled out.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:45.681247Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIL17-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIL17-26-R","https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/EOPDFViewer.aspx?ElectionID=sejIrI%2BQmww%3D&QueryType=xF443FTCAJbIL3atac%2FUjEg7Y4yklgT1&FileDate=rVxA%2FkYn5zWvncN%2BrowbA2ctWFP%2BOjT5&Status=P2wRQXkiFoo%3D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IL17147/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00793935/","https://www.wglt.org/local-news/2026-07-20/lahood-sorensen-have-big-cash-advantages-in-reelection-bids","https://www.wcbu.org/local-news/2026-07-08/we-need-to-get-money-out-of-our-politics-says-u-s-rep-eric-sorensen","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IL17247/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIL17-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEIL17-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for IL-17?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.957,"yes_bid":0.953,"yes_ask":0.961,"last_price":0.976,"volume":3164.62,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:26:25.194517Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIL17-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIL17-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEIL17-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for IL-17?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.044,"yes_bid":0.039,"yes_ask":0.049,"last_price":0.024,"volume":4188.59,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:26:27.238334Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIL17-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"il-senate-2026","title":"2026 Illinois U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Illinois","state":"Illinois","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T07:03:38.032244+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Juliana Stratton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Juliana_Stratton.jpg"},{"name":"Don Tracy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/dtracy.jpg"},{"name":"Whitfield Harrington Jr.","party":"American Center Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/618ff630-86a0-11f1-a391-85dcaae018f1_20260723_141459_31769_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Juliana Stratton","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"American Center":0.005,"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.035},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Illinois has not elected a Republican senator since 2010, and Stratton pairs that partisan baseline with a resource edge — roughly $4.8 million raised plus Pritzker-aligned PAC support, against Tracy's ~$2.3 million raised and $2 million self-loan. With no general-election polling logged, September prediction-market pricing near 97-98% for Democrats is consistent with a safe Democratic hold of this open seat.","takeaway":"Stratton is heavily favored to hold this open Democratic seat in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2010.","key_reasons":["Illinois is a strongly Democratic-leaning state that has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2010, giving Stratton a large structural advantage in an open-seat race.","Stratton holds the fundraising and infrastructure edge: about $4.8 million raised with Governor Pritzker-aligned PAC support, versus Tracy's roughly $2.3 million raised plus a $2 million self-loan.","Prediction markets in September priced a Democratic win near 97-98% with meaningful volume, reinforcing the partisan-lean and resource signals in the absence of general-election polling."],"uncertainty":"No general-election poll of these candidates exists, so the forecast rests on partisan lean, fundraising and market pricing; the near-certain market reading may overstate confidence in an open-seat race, and support for Whitfield Harrington Jr. is unmeasured.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T07:03:31.576620Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEIL-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEIL-26-R","https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/article/juliana-stratton-illinois-senate-fundraising-tracy-22229090.php","https://capitolnewsillinois.com/news/pritzker-drops-5m-to-boost-lt-gov-juliana-stratton-in-senate-race/","https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/08/27/republican-us-senate-hopeful-don-tracy-lends-2m-to-his-campaign-fund/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6IL00680/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00931428/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=ILS2"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEIL-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEIL-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Illinois?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.977,"yes_bid":0.973,"yes_ask":0.981,"last_price":0.974,"volume":9794.97,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:06.314534Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEIL-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEIL-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEIL-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.025500000000000002,"yes_bid":0.016,"yes_ask":0.035,"last_price":0.035,"volume":8794.6,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:07.425009Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEIL-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.035,"American Center":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"American Center":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"American Center":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"in-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 1st Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:43:12.434822+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Frank Mrvan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Frank_Mrvan.jpg"},{"name":"Barb Regnitz","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Barb_Regnitz_20251029_033817.jpeg"},{"name":"Alexander Degman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/20260516-124332_20260519_185250_35460.jpg"},{"name":"James Johnson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Johnson__Indiana__fixed.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Frank Mrvan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9363,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9363,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.0588},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Mrvan has won this D+1 seat by five and eight points in 2022 and 2024, and his $2.39M raised with $1.34M cash on hand is built on actual contributions, while Regnitz's $2.38M is mostly $2.14M in personal loans against $2.0M in debt. With no public polling logged, market pricing near 96-97% for Democrats and the district's recent Democratic performance point to a comfortable Mrvan hold.","takeaway":"Mrvan is strongly favored to hold this D+1 Northwest Indiana seat, with incumbency and a fundraising edge outweighing GOP targeting.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and recent performance: Mrvan won this D+1 district by five points in 2022 and eight in 2024, and no public polling shows a shift against him.","Fundraising quality: Mrvan's $2.39M raised and $1.34M cash on hand come largely from contributions, while Regnitz's $2.38M is overwhelmingly $2.14M in self-loans with $2.0M in debt.","Market pricing: Kalshi's IN-1 markets put Democrats near 96-97% with substantial volume, consistent with the district's fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and the district's narrow D+1 lean, Republican targeting, and Trump's endorsement of Regnitz leave open the possibility of a closer-than-expected finish.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:43:07.537497Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIN1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIN1-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0IN01150/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/frank-j-mrvan","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Frank%20J.%20Mrvan-M001214/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN01231/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/barb-regnitz/donors","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/20/braun-grew-reelection-cash-while-joining-others-in-bankrolling-redistricting-revenge/","https://nwitimes.com/news/local/government-politics/elections/article_02a85832-5389-458b-b6cf-d487f1c976a7.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Alexander_Degman","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IN","https://ballotpedia.org/James_Johnson_(Indiana)"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIN1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEIN1-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for IN-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.965,"yes_bid":0.955,"yes_ask":0.975,"last_price":0.97,"volume":10340.39,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:26:31.189590Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIN1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEIN1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEIN1-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for IN-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0085,"yes_bid":0.001,"yes_ask":0.016,"last_price":0.01,"volume":19925.6,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:26:33.449214Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEIN1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.059,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.08,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"in-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T21:46:35.711523+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rudy Yakym","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ryakym.jpg"},{"name":"Jamee Decio","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jamee_Decio_20251023_125303.jpeg"},{"name":"William Henry","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/William_Henry.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Beebe","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Beebe_25.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rudy Yakym","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.92,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.0666,"Independent":0.0067,"Libertarian":0.0067},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Indiana's 2nd District is a strongly Republican seat, and incumbent Rudy Yakym carries both the advantages of incumbency and a large fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Jamee Decio. No public polling is logged for this race, and the Libertarian and independent candidates report no campaign receipts, leaving no evident basis for a competitive general election.","takeaway":"Yakym is a clear favorite to hold Indiana's 2nd District, with the seat's Republican lean and his fundraising edge outweighing a sparse Democratic challenge.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican lean and Yakym's incumbency make him the clear favorite in a seat the GOP currently holds.","Yakym raised roughly $5.25M this cycle against Decio's roughly $356K, much of it self-funded, giving him a far larger advertising and turnout operation.","No public polling exists for the general election, and the Libertarian and independent candidates report no campaign receipts, so the third-party presence shows no measurable financial footing."],"uncertainty":"With no public polling, the forecast rests on district lean, incumbency and fundraising; a midterm environment favoring Democrats and Decio's districtwide town halls are the main sources of uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T21:46:31.240619Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IN02295/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/rudy-yakym/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/huntington-bancshares/C00165589/candidate-recipients/2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN02189/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jamee-decio/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN02171/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.945,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.003,"Independent":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.18,"Libertarian":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.17}},{"id":"in-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-24T14:55:39.067244+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marlin Stutzman","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":null},{"name":"Kelly Thompson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kelly_Thompson.jpg"},{"name":"Phillip Beachy","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Phillip_Beachy.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marlin Stutzman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman holds a heavily Republican district (roughly R+16) that he carried with about 65% in 2024, and he enjoys a large fundraising advantage (~$840K vs ~$136K). With no public polling and two challengers likely to split the non-Republican vote, the seat is not competitive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T14:55:22.127304Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.hoosierenquirer.com/post/fort-wayne-s-congressional-race-takes-shape-stutzman-defends-deep-red-3rd-district-against-kelly-th","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0IN03198/","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/thor-industries/summary?id=D000059644","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/patrick-industries/summary?id=D000099609","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Marlin%20A.%20Stutzman-S001188/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00907816/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/kelly-thompson/us_congress/summary?mpid=89746065","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kelly-thompson","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IN04032/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"in-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 4th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:25:09.645784+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim Baird","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Jim_Baird_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Drew Cox","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Drew_Cox_20250806_064123.jpg"},{"name":"David Bokash","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Baird","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.97,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Indiana's 4th is a heavily Republican district where incumbent Jim Baird has won every prior general election with more than 64% of the vote, and he holds a roughly 18-to-1 fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Drew Cox. With no public polling and a write-in independent in the field, district fundamentals and incumbency point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:11:38.012860Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IN04199/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN04193/","https://www.hoosierenquirer.com/post/indiana-s-other-congressional-battles-seven-house-races-to-watch-in-november-2026","https://indianacitizen.org/2026-indiana-general-election-candidate-list/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/indiana-4/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jim-baird/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IN","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/drew-cox","https://www.drewcox.org/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN04243/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"in-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 5th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:52.399020+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Victoria Spartz","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Victoria_Spartz.jpg"},{"name":"J.D. Ford","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JD_Ford.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Victoria Spartz","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.73,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.73,"Democratic":0.27},"margin_estimate":4.2,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Indiana's 5th District has been held by Republicans for decades and incumbent Victoria Spartz retains a resource edge, with roughly $1.01 million raised through early 2026 plus about $220,900 in the July 2026 quarter, against J.D. Ford's roughly $582,087 in total receipts through June 30, 2026. The only reported head-to-head poll, an Impact Research survey conducted July 16-20, 2026 for the Ford campaign, put Spartz ahead 48% to 46%, a narrow lead that keeps the race competitive but comes from a campaign-sponsored survey.","takeaway":"Spartz is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though the lone public poll shows a narrow 48-46 race.","key_reasons":["The district's decades-long Republican history and Spartz's incumbency give her a structural advantage in a seat the GOP currently holds.","The only reported head-to-head poll, an Impact Research survey conducted July 16-20, 2026 for the Ford campaign, shows Spartz ahead 48%-46%, a narrow margin that signals competitiveness but reflects a campaign-sponsored sample.","Spartz's fundraising (about $1.01 million raised through early 2026 plus roughly $220,900 in the July 2026 quarter) outpaces Ford's roughly $582,087 in total receipts through June 30, 2026, giving her a financial edge."],"uncertainty":"The forecast rests on a single campaign-sponsored poll with no independent public survey, so the race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Spartz's incumbency outweigh the narrow 48-46 reading and Ford's credible state-senator candidacy.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:48.324290Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/indiana-us-house-5-polls-2026.html","https://www.larryinfishers.com/2026/08/06/spartz-ford-5th-district-poll/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0IN05326/","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/IN/5","https://www.ipm.org/news/2026-07-20/braun-grew-reelection-cash-while-joining-others-in-bankrolling-redistricting-revenge","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN05307/","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/20/braun-grew-reelection-cash-while-joining-others-in-bankrolling-redistricting-revenge/","https://www.citact.org/senator-jd-ford-d-carmel-district-29"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.7,"Democratic":0.3},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.68,"Democratic":0.32},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"in-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 6th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:48:12.846749+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jefferson Shreve","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jefferson_ShreveIN.jpeg"},{"name":"Cynthia Wirth","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Dr-Cinde-Wirth-By-Indiana-Flag.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jefferson Shreve","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Jefferson Shreve beat the same opponent, Cynthia Wirth, by 32 ponts in 2024 in a heavily Republican 11-county district and now holds an overwhelming financial and incumbency edge. With no public pollng, the structural and historical signals point to a decisive Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:47:45.460649Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27_s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IN06185/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2IN06304/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-in-6/compare/cynthia-wirth-vs-jefferson-shreve","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jefferson-shreve/donors","https://www.theindianalawyer.com/articles/what-will-failed-indiana-primary-candidates-do-with-outstanding-campaign-loans-contributions","https://www.wfyi.org/wfyi-news/2023-10-24/indianapolis-mayoral-candidates-report-more-than-20-million-in-campaign-contributions","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/cynthia-wirth/donors","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/cynthia-cinde-wirth"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"in-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 7th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:00:38.123101+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"André Carson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andre_Carson.jpg"},{"name":"Patrick McAuley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Patrick_McAuley.png"},{"name":"James Sceniak","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Sceniak.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"André Carson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat André Carson is heavily favored in this reliably Democratic Marion County/Indianapolis district, which has a durable Democratic lean and a Republican challenger with no reported campaign fundraising. No public polling exists, but prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 96%, consistent with a safe-D read.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:00:25.317109Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEIN7-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEIN7-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/andre-carson/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IN07184/","https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/andre-carson-fundraising-destiny-wells/89641308007/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN07444/","https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2024","https://dailyjournal.net/2024/08/05/cash-amounts-low-for-indiana-6th-district-race/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEIN7-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEIN7-26","title":"Will Democrats win the House race for IN-07?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9635,"yes_bid":0.947,"yes_ask":0.98,"last_price":0.98,"volume":18658,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:48:44.617514Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEIN7-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEIN7-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEIN7-26","title":"Will Republicans win the House race for IN-07?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0365,"yes_bid":0.01,"yes_ask":0.063,"last_price":0.044,"volume":1353,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:48:44.624889Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEIN7-26-R","confidence":"high"}]}},{"id":"in-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 8th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:35:29.676513+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Messmer","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Rep._Mark_Messmer_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Mary Allen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Messmer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Indiana's 8th District has been Republican-held since 2010 and leans heavily Republican, and incumbent Mark Messmer has raised roughly four times as much as Democrat Mary Allen ($1.17 million to about $294,500 through June 30, 2026). With no public general-election polling, the race rests on that structural lean, incumbency and the funding gap.","takeaway":"Messmer is heavily favored to win a second term in a strongly Republican district, buoyed by a large fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["The district is strongly Republican-leaning and has been held by Republicans since 2010, giving the incumbent a large structural advantage.","Messmer holds incumbency plus a substantial fundraising edge ($1.17M vs. about $294.5K through June 30, 2026), including a deep institutional donor base.","No public general-election polling or prediction-market signals point to a competitive race, and Allen's grassroots-funded challenge has not shown evidence of closing the gap."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling or prediction-market signals exist, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising rather than direct horse-race data; the race turns on whether Allen's local Evansville profile and grassroots funding can overcome the district's heavy Republican lean.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:35:25.842767Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/candidate-information/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IN08249/","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00914556/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"in-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Indiana's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Indiana's 9th Congressional District","state":"Indiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:05:40.525595+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Erin Houchin","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Rep._Erin_Houchin_official_photo%2C_118th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Brad Meyer","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Meyer.jpg"},{"name":"Tonya Hudson","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://b3870750.smushcdn.com/3870750/wp-content/uploads/TH-headshot.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1"},{"name":"Floyd Taylor","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Floyd_Taylor_20250815_052001.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Erin Houchin","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.039,"Independent":0.0007,"Libertarian":0.0104},"margin_estimate":26,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Houchin has carried this district by roughly 30 points in 2022 and 2024 and holds a wide fundraising advantage over Meyer, about $1.86 million to $106,000. With no candidate-level polling to suggest a shift, the district's Republican lean, incumbency, and resource asymmetry point to a Republican hold.","takeaway":"Houchin is strongly favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though no public polling exists.","key_reasons":["The district has leaned heavily Republican in recent cycles, with Houchin winning nearly 65% in 2024.","Houchin is a well-established incumbent in House Republican leadership with roughly $1.86 million in receipts and about $1.18 million cash on hand, against about $106,000 for Meyer.","No public polling or market signals exist, so the estimate rests on the district baseline, incumbency, and resource asymmetry rather than current horse-race data."],"uncertainty":"The race has no public candidate-level polling or market signals, so the forecast rests on the district's partisan baseline, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct evidence of current vote share.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:05:34.878657Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN09143/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00800649/","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/04/fundraising-picks-up-for-indiana-congressional-races/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/indiana/federal/indiana-district-09/industries","https://www.hoosierenquirer.com/post/indiana-s-other-congressional-battles-seven-house-races-to-watch-in-november-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN09242/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/IN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN09317/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6IN09283/","https://floyd2026.com/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Libertarian":0.008,"Independent":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":26,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.985,"Democratic":0.014,"Libertarian":0.0005,"Independent":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.045}},{"id":"ks-governor-2026","title":"2026 Kansas Governor Election","office":"Governor of Kansas","jurisdiction":"Kansas","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:07:01.460194+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Cindy Holscher","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cindy-Holscher.jpg"},{"name":"Ty Masterson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TyMasterson.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ty Masterson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.68,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.32,"Republican":0.68},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Ty Masterson leads in five of the seven head-to-head polls, including the most recent YouGov (R+3) and NYT/Siena (R+5) surveys, and holds a fundraising edge in a state that leans strongly Republican. Cindy Holscher's two GSG leads (Holscher +3 on Sept. 16, +1 on Aug. 16) and Kansas Democrats' record of winning governor races keep the contest competitive but leave her the underdog.","takeaway":"Masterson is favored in this open-seat Kansas governor race, though Holscher stays within striking distance given Democrats' history of overperforming here.","key_reasons":["Masterson leads the most recent surveys — YouGov (R+3), NYT/Siena (R+5), Wedgewood (R+4), Emerson (R+7) and co/efficient (R+8) — with only GSG's two polls showing Holscher ahead (Holscher +3 on Sept. 16, +1 on Aug. 16).","Kansas is a strongly Republican state and this is an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot, giving Masterson a structural advantage reinforced by his roughly $1.5 million raised versus Holscher's roughly $810,582.","Democrats have a record of overperforming in Kansas governor races (Kelly in 2018 and 2022), and Gov. Kelly's general-election endorsement of Holscher plus her education-and-Medicaid message keep the race close."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Holscher's grassroots, education-and-healthcare appeal and Kansas Democrats' history of overperforming in governor contests can overcome Masterson's polling and fundraising edge, with surveys spanning Holscher +3 to Masterson +8.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:57.939057Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf","https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2105694675113799710","https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/04/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-gubernatorial-races-2/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/governor-polls-2026.html","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/kansas/masterson-vs-holscher","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001a0-45c2-dd5a-a9f6-7df322f70000","https://kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScanned/StWide/2026ElecCycle/202607/SW01CH_202607.pdf","https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/07/31/corson-builds-fundraising-lead-in-democratic-race-for-kansas-governor/91079382007/","https://www.kansas.gov/ethics/CFAScanned/StWide/2026ElecCycle/SWLinks2026EC.htm","https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/07/31/kansas-gop-gubernatorial-primary-fundraising-defined-by-self-funding/91090306007/","https://kansasreflector.com/2026/01/19/millionaire-candidates-for-kansas-governor-burnish-fundraising-with-personal-loans/","https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article316411400.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/ty-marlo-masterson/summary?cycle=2013&id=6671671"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.32,"Republican":0.68},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.72,"Democratic":0.28},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.38,"Republican":0.62},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ks-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Kansas's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kansas's 1st Congressional District","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:21:16.608384+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tracey Mann","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tracey-Mann.PNG"},{"name":"Lauren Reinhold","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lauren_Reinhold_20260216_074450.jpeg"},{"name":"Steven Jacob","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/20260512-094048-_1__20260601_193259_39323_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tracey Mann","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.01,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Tracey Mann won re-election with 69.1% in 2024 and took the 2026 Republican primary with ~81%, while the district has not elected a Democrat since 1952. With no public polling, the district's deep Republican lean and Mann's incumbency and fundraising advantage make a GOP hold overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:21:03.162816Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kansas%27_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0KS01123/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tracey-mann/summary","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/tracey-mann","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tracey-mann/donors","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/lauren-reinhold/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kansas","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KS01229/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ks-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Kansas's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kansas's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T19:09:41.637582+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Derek Schmidt","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Derek_Schmidt.jpg"},{"name":"Don Coover","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Don_Coover_2026-07-29_205623.png"},{"name":"John Hauer","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/john2_20260701_195102_43598_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Derek Schmidt","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.0447,"Libertarian":0.0053},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kansas's 2nd District has not elected a Democrat since 2007-2009 and leans strongly Republican, and first-term incumbent Derek Schmidt combines that structural edge with a large fundraising advantage ($1.46M raised and $939K cash on hand versus Don Coover's $244K) and an 80% Republican primary win. The only public general-election poll, a March Public Policy Polling survey released by the Coover campaign, put Schmidt ahead 49-39 but is months old and campaign-released, so it does little to change the picture.","takeaway":"Schmidt is heavily favored to hold Kansas's 2nd District, where the Republican lean and his incumbency outweigh sparse, dated polling.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Republican lean — no Democratic House win here since 2007-2009 — gives Schmidt a durable structural advantage as the incumbent.","Schmidt holds a wide fundraising edge ($1.46M raised, $939K cash on hand) over Coover ($244K cash on hand) and took about 80% of the August 4 Republican primary vote.","The only public general-election poll, a March Public Policy Polling survey released by the Coover campaign, showed Schmidt ahead 49-39, but it is months old and campaign-released."],"uncertainty":"The lone public poll is a March survey released by the Coover campaign with conflicting reported matchups, and no nonpartisan general-election polling exists, so the size of Schmidt's margin is far less certain than his advantage.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T19:09:35.826261Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://doncooverforcongress.com/updates/","https://ent.sos.ks.gov/national.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4KS02164/","https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/24/tracey-mann-derek-schmidt-sharice-davids-ron-estes-file-fec-reports/90919745007/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/KS","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KS02276/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kansas%27_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://kansasreflector.com/2025/09/09/southeast-kansas-farmer-challenges-republican-incumbent-for-2nd-district-congressional-seat/","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-07-17/kansas-2nd-district-congress-primary-election-2026"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.085,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.1,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"ks-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Kansas's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kansas's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T10:03:33.352869+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sharice Davids","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SHARICE_DAVIDS.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Jenkins","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Jenkins.jpg"},{"name":"Steve Hohe","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SteveHohe2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sharice Davids","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.84,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.155},"margin_estimate":7.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Sharice Davids has won this competitive Johnson County district repeatedly and holds a large fundraising advantage over first-time Republican nominee Eric Jenkins, while the district's modest Democratic lean makes a flip an uphill climb. No public polling of the general election has been logged, so the race turns on whether a strong Republican national environment could overcome those advantages.","takeaway":"Davids is favored to keep this Democratic-held suburban Kansas City seat, buoyed by incumbency and a wide fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and demonstrated strength: Davids has won this competitive suburban district multiple times and won the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary with about 83% of the vote.","Resource gap: Davids raised roughly $3.69 million for the cycle through mid-July 2026, versus about $18,916 for Jenkins, leaving the challenger little capacity to build name recognition.","District lean and suburban trends: the seat is Democratic-held in a district with only a modest Democratic tilt, and Johnson County's suburban shift has favored Davids in recent cycles."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the general election exists, so the race turns on whether a strong Republican national environment could overcome Davids's incumbency and fundraising advantage in a district that remains competitive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T10:03:29.785970Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.jocoelection.org/candidates-elected-officials/candidates","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8KS03155/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/sharice-davids?mpid=1115134","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/sharice-davids/industries?cid=N00042626","https://www.opensecrets.org/joint-fundraising-committees-jfcs/sharice-davids-victory-fund-2024/C00724237/2024/donors","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-07-22/kansas-3rd-district-voter-guide-sharice-davids-congress-democrat-johnson-county-election","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KS03308/","https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/former-shawnee-city-council-member-files-to-run-for-congress/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0KS03269/","https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article268107582.html"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.155,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.76,"Republican":0.21,"Libertarian":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"ks-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Kansas's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kansas's 4th Congressional District","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T10:15:12.044373+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ron Estes","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/Ron_Estes_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Katy Tyndell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Katy_Tyndell_20260424_110452.jpeg"},{"name":"Drew Cranmer","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Drew_Cranmer_20260508_035359.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ron Estes","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kansas's 4th District has elected Republicans to the House since 1994, and incumbent Ron Estes (in office since 2017) holds a decisive incumbency and fundraising advantage in a historically red district. With no public polling available, the forecast rests on durable partisan fundamentals and incumbency rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T09:51:45.446017Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kansas%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00632067/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KS04272/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ron-estes/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/Kansas%27_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_4_Republican_primary)","https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/18/how-much-money-are-kansas-congressional-candidates-fundraising/89633000007/","https://lp.org/candidate/drew-cranmer/","https://www.ksn.com/news/your-local-election-hq/democratic-primary-kansas-congressional/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/katy-tyndell/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00948430/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ks-senate-2026","title":"2026 Kansas U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Kansas","state":"Kansas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:50.427964+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RogerMarshall.jpg"},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Hamilton_Kansas_2026-06-03_214144.jpg"},{"name":"David Graham","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David-Graham.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Roger Marshall","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.59,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.4,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.59},"margin_estimate":3,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and incumbent Roger Marshall pairs that durable Republican lean with a cash advantage and roughly $8.2 million in reserved Senate Leadership Fund advertising. Yet the race is genuinely close: YouGov (ended Oct 4) put Adam Hamilton ahead 48-45, The New York Times/Siena College (ended Sept 30) found a 45-45 tie, and co/efficient (ended Sept 10) had Marshall up 49-44, leaving Republicans only a narrow edge.","takeaway":"Republicans are narrowly favored to hold Kansas's Senate seat, with Marshall's incumbency and resource edge offsetting a near-tied polling picture.","key_reasons":["Kansas's long Republican history and Marshall's incumbency keep the seat tilted Republican even as surveys show a near-tie; the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.","Recent polling is mixed rather than decisive: YouGov (ended Oct 4) had Hamilton +3, The New York Times/Siena College (ended Sept 30) was tied 45-45, and co/efficient (ended Sept 10) had Marshall +5.","Marshall's $5.3 million cash on hand plus about $8.2 million in reserved Senate Leadership Fund advertising outweighs Hamilton's record grassroots fundraising, though former Republican governors Bill Graves and Mike Hayden back Hamilton."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the tight surveys reflect a durable Hamilton surge or the historical tendency of red-state Senate polls to understate Republicans; the Kalshi market snapshot (Sept 15, Republicans about 62%) predates the newest surveys and is only a secondary signal.","based_on_poll_count":9,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:43.378104Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf","https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/KS-Midterms-Report-1001.pdf","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/10/02/the-reverends-run-01104674","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-kansas-poll-crosstabs.html?eafs_enabled=false","https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6077659-trump-canada-trade-war-gop-candidates-midterms/","https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/new-polling-shows-marshall-masterson-leading-in-kansas-races/","https://www.newsweek.com/adam-hamiltons-chances-of-beating-roger-marshall-in-kansas-senate-race-12487188","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/","https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/democratic-poll-shows-u-s-senate-race-tight/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEKS-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEKS-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0KS00315/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/roger-marshall/us_congress/summary?mpid=1131990","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/roger-marshall/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1131990","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/Senate.phtml?v=u&p=REP","https://kansasreflector.com/2026/07/08/kansas-democratic-candidate-for-u-s-senate-attracts-3-6m-in-two-months-of-campaigning/","https://amp.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article316400124.html","https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/hamilton-fundraising-surpasses-3-5-million-since-entering-u-s-senate-race/","https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2026/05/libertarian-party-of-kansas-nominates-candidates-for-2026-general-election/","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas,_2022"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEKS-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEKS-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.375,"yes_bid":0.37,"yes_ask":0.38,"last_price":0.38,"volume":1904278.74,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:11.200520Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEKS-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEKS-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEKS-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.625,"yes_bid":0.62,"yes_ask":0.63,"last_price":0.63,"volume":1328407.78,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:12.224547Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEKS-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.62,"Democratic":0.38},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.59,"Democratic":0.4,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.58,"Democratic":0.4,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"ky-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 1st Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:46:10.541630+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James Comer","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Comer.jpg"},{"name":"Drew Williams","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DrewWilliams2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"James Comer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Comer has held this seat since 2016, chairs the House Oversight Committee, and enjoys a heavily Republican partisan environment (roughly R+23) in western Kentucky, giving him an overwhelming structural edge. His $3.04M cash on hand dwarfs Williams' ~$119K raised, and no public polling or market data suggests any competitiveness, so the margin is inferred from the district's lean rather than measured sentiment.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:46:01.093384Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY01110/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/james-comer/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1074353","https://www.lpm.org/news/2025-10-17/close-fundraising-battles-emerge-among-us-house-candidates-in-central-kentucky","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00904243/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY01169/","https://www.williamsforky.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ky-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:40:10.904010+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brett Guthrie","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brett_Guthrie.jpg"},{"name":"Megan Wingfield","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Megan_Wingfield_20250516_053600.jpeg"},{"name":"Thomas Loecken","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Thomas_Loecken_2026-06-18_010118.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brett Guthrie","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"KY-02 is a heavily Republican west-central Kentucky district (R+20, Trump by ~40 points in 2024) with a long-serving GOP incumbent, Brett Guthrie, who has held the seat since 2009 and won his primary with ~85%. The Democratic challenger is a first-time candidate with minimal fundraising (~$7.5K) and no PAC support, making a flip structurally implausible despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:30:13.714542Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8KY02031/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/brett-guthrie/us_congress/summary?mpid=1048046","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY02068/","https://kentuckylantern.com/2025/10/27/pac-donations-flow-to-new-committee-chairs-especially-us-rep-brett-guthrie-of-kentucky/","https://readsludge.com/2024/12/20/top-pharma-cash-recipient-takes-key-industry-oversight-job/","https://kffhealthnews.org/elections/campaign/","https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/03/big-pharma-pac-contributions-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-open-secrets-data/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/megan-wingfield/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/megan-wingfield","https://ballotpedia.org/Thomas_Loecken"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ky-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:49:46.871085+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Morgan McGarvey","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Morgan_McGarvey.jpg"},{"name":"Maria Teresa Rodriguez","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://mariaforuscongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/92329daa-1525-42cd-ac61-8af5e5ea9744.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Morgan McGarvey","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Morgan McGarvey represents a strongly Democratic Louisville/Jefferson County district and faces a first-time GOP nominee with a much smaller campaign war chest. With no public polling, the district's deep Democratic lean and incumbency point to a high-probability Democratic hold, though the exact margin is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:45:34.029372Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY03215/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2KY03206/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00791392/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/morgan-mcgarvey/us_congress/individual_donors?cycle=2024&mpid=1109825","https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/30/midterm-elections-2026-mcgarvey-says-no-to-aipac-money-at-town-hall/85911498007/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/kentucky-district-3-primary/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00938209/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/KY"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ky-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 4th Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:41:49.883309+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ed Gallrein","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ed_Gallrein.jpg"},{"name":"Melissa Strange","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Melissa_Strange_26.jpg"},{"name":"Jeremy Todd","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-8336_20260716_204353_31430_1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ed Gallrein","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"KY-04 is a strongly Republican district (PVI R+18) that has not elected a Democrat since 2005, and Gallrein consolidated GOP support by defeating the incumbent in the primary with President Trump's endorsement. With no public polling, the forecast rests on partisan fundamentals plus Gallrein's commanding fundraising and outside-spending edge over Democrat Melissa Strange, with Libertarian Jeremy Todd a minor factor.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:24:44.995162Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/KY","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/kentucky-us-house-district-4-results","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY04171/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY04189/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ed-gallrein/donors","https://www.lpm.org/news/2026-07-17/a-record-shattering-37m-was-spent-on-kentuckys-massie-gallrein-race-heres-who-funded-it","https://www.notus.org/2026-election/massie-gallrein-primary-spending-donors","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/KY/4","https://linknky.com/elections/2026/05/18/massie-gallrein-gop-primary-becomes-most-expensive-in-u-s-history/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/melissa-strange","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY04205/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ky-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 5th Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T23:25:00.613069+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hal Rogers","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Hal_Rogers.JPG"},{"name":"Ned Pillersdorf","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-5226_20260825_151045_33142_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Gerardo Serrano","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gerardo_Serrano.jpg"},{"name":"Mikel Wein","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mikel_Wein_20260416_123907.jpg"},{"name":"Billy Ray Wilson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Billy_Ray_Wilson.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hal Rogers","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hal Rogers, in office since 1981 and the Dean of the House, holds an overwhelming structural advantage in a heavily Republican 33-county eastern Kentucky district against a Democratic trial attorney and three minor independent candidates. With no public polling available, the forecast relies on incumbency, the district's strong partisan lean, and Rogers's 77.4% primary win rather than race-specific survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T23:07:37.922778Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00116632/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0KY05015/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/hal-rogers/summary?cid=N00003473","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Rogers-R000395/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/12/leadership-pacs-cash-flows-to-closely-linked-businesses/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY05152/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ned-pillersdorf/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ned-pillersdorf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2KY05185/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2022","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY05202/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=a","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2KY05136/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G25/KY"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ky-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Kentucky's 6th Congressional District","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T06:08:47.499978+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Zach_Dembo_20250730_033156.jpg"},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ralph_Alvarado.jpg"},{"name":"Pete Lynch","party":"Kentucky Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Campaign-photo-2_20260814_193501_51259_1.jpg"},{"name":"Jay Bowman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jay_Bowman_20240913_034616.jpg"},{"name":"Robert Quigley","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://janrvuropqrnptyieksp.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/politician-images/robert-quigley-1787319258626.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Zach Dembo","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.5584,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.5584,"Independent":0.0102,"Kentucky":0.0051,"Republican":0.4264},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Tilt Democratic and gives Zach Dembo (Democratic) a 56% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 2 points. The estimate draws on 6 public polls with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Zach Dembo (Democratic) is favored, with a 56% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Tilt Democratic (Zach Dembo (Democratic): 56% chance of winning).","Polling: 6 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T06:08:41.719387Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/kentucky-us-house-6-polls-2026.html","https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/10/02/internal-poll-shows-democrat-dembo-leads-gops-alvarado-in-central-kentucky-house-race/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/house-majority-pac-memo-polling-shows-path-to-a-larger-democratic-majority-exists-with-necessary-funding/","https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article316781408.html","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-1d50-d0fd-a3de-bf5d58340000","https://insideelections.com/kentucky-6-new-poll-fuels-democratic-optimism/","https://www.lpm.org/news/2026-09-30/political-forecaster-moves-open-kentucky-house-seat-rating-toward-democrats","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY06184/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/zach-dembo/donors","https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314541740.html","https://zachdembo.com/former-prosecutor-zach-dembo-continues-fundraising-surge-hauls-in-more-than-625k-in-q2-as-momentum-grows/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY06192/","https://www.lpm.org/news/2025-10-17/close-fundraising-battles-emerge-among-us-house-candidates-in-central-kentucky","https://kentuckylantern.com/2025/10/22/central-kentucky-us-house-candidates-say-their-fundraising-reports-show-strength/","https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article312529857.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/ralph-a-alvarado/contributors?cycle=2021&id=6656298&recs=100","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY06242/","https://insideelections.com/person/bowman-j-jay/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00883157/","https://ballotpedia.org/Robert_Quigley","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00855254/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.53,"Democratic":0.46,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.42,"Kentucky":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.42,"Kentucky":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ky-senate-2026","title":"2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Kentucky, United States","state":"Kentucky","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T16:04:14.530656+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Andy Barr","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy_Barr__official_portrait__113th_Congress-7_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"Charles Booker","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Charles_Booker.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Campbell","party":"Kentucky Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher_Campbell_20260501_074859.jpg"},{"name":"Thomas Murphy","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Andy Barr","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.09,"Independent":0.005,"Kentucky":0.005,"Republican":0.9},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kentucky's strong Republican lean and its record of not electing a Democratic senator since 1992 favor Barr in this open-seat contest. Barr leads in both available head-to-head polls and holds a wide fundraising advantage over Booker.","takeaway":"Republican Andy Barr is favored to hold Kentucky's open Senate seat, leading in polling and fundraising.","key_reasons":["Kentucky is a deeply Republican state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992, and the open-seat context does not change that fundamental lean.","Barr leads in both head-to-head polls: Global Strategy Group (ended Aug. 27, 2026) at 49-40 and Public Policy Polling (ended Dec. 19, 2025) at 49-38.","Barr holds a large financial edge, with roughly $9.9M raised for the cycle and about $2.2M cash on hand, against Booker's roughly $309K cash on hand and reported debt."],"uncertainty":"General-election polling is sparse, with only two head-to-head surveys and the newest ending Aug. 27, 2026, so the true size of Barr's lead is uncertain, and the presence of a Kentucky Party candidate and an independent write-in adds minor noise.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T16:04:10.749922Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/new-poll-shows-charles-booker-trailing-just-behind-andy-barr-in-race-for-senate/","https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/kentucky/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00467571/","https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/campaign-finance-reports-show-wide-182953198.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=KYS1","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/andy-barr/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1053547"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Kentucky":0.004,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.09,"Kentucky":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.11,"Kentucky":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"la-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 1st Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T13:49:38.339035+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Steve Scalise","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_Scalise.jpg"},{"name":"Lauren Jewett","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lauren_Jewett_2026.jpeg"},{"name":"Randall Arrington","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/rarrington.jpeg"},{"name":"Liddy Glass","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Liddy_Glass_2026-08-26_225943.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Steve Scalise","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"LA-01 is a heavily Republican district where House Majority Leader Scalise, first elected in 2008, has won re-election by large margins while out-raising all challengers combined by roughly 70-to-1 ($10.6M vs ~$143K). The November 3 majority-vote primary is uncompetitive despite a Republican primary challenge from Arrington and a Democratic bid from Jewett.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T13:19:31.579401Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana's_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0LA01087/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA01258/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/steve-scalise/summary?cid=N00009660","https://punchbowl.news/article/house/scalise-raises-8m/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/lauren-jewett/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6LA00516/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6LA00524/","https://nomoreparty.com/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/steve-scalise/us_congress/campaign_expenditures?cycle=2026&mpid=1133514","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/steve-scalise","https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.eenews.net/articles/meet-the-top-house-recipients-of-oil-and-gas-money/","https://floodlightnews.org/big-utility-pacs-favor-gop-in-high-stakes-2024-races/","https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3926039-these-house-members-get-the-most-money-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/steve-scalise-r-la?mpid=1133514","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/lauren-jewett","https://www.localcandidates.org/states/louisiana/politicians?page=3"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"la-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-02T04:26:37.538991+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Troy Carter","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TroyCarterheadshot.jpeg"},{"name":"Renada Collins","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Collins2026.jpg"},{"name":"Peter Williams","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Peter_Williams_Photo.jpg"},{"name":"Lisa Ballay","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LISAHeadshot-pre_20260816_192941_32769_1.jpg"},{"name":"Walter Beach","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Walter-Rocky-Beach_20260704_224136_44174_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Troy Carter","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Troy Carter holds a heavily Democratic New Orleans-to-Baton Rouge district and a commanding fundraising edge (~$1.41M raised, ~$383K cash on hand) over challengers with no reported war chests. District fundamentals make the Democratic nominee a near-certain winner regardless of the jungle-primary/runoff outcome.","takeaway":"This safe Democratic seat will almost certainly remain in Troy Carter's hands.","key_reasons":["Incumbent Troy Carter holds a heavily Democratic district with strong institutional and financial advantages","Carter's incumbency and fundraising edge (~$1.41M raised) far outmatch challengers with no reported resources","District fundamentals overwhelmingly favor the Democratic nominee regardless of the jungle-primary outcome"],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and the redrawn district plus jungle-primary/runoff structure leaves some uncertainty about the primary outcome, though the general election is a formality for the Democratic nominee.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-31T04:32:07.283150Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Troy_Carter","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/louisiana-district-2-democratic-primary/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00763649/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2LA02149/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/troy-a-carter","https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/local/new-orleans-mayor-sheriff-race-fundraising/289-f34de276-f9f4-47d8-81d5-1fde3a5ec268","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00892380/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA","https://lp.org/candidate/lisa-ballay/","https://ballotpedia.org/Walter_Beach","https://voteforrocky.com/","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMyM_Tmi4QQ","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4LA05171/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2LA02305/"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"la-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T09:10:17.862475+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Clay Higgins","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Clay_Higgins.jpeg"},{"name":"Kate Cotten","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"John Day","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Priscilla Gonzalez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PriscillaGonzalez24.png"},{"name":"Caleb Walker","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/942926/942926.jpg"},{"name":"Tia LeBrun","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/tialebrun.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Clay Higgins","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9699,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.025,"Independent":0.0001,"No Party Affiliation":0.005,"Republican":0.9699},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Louisiana's 3rd District is a deeply Republican Acadiana seat, and incumbent Rep. Clay Higgins holds a commanding fundraising advantage over a fragmented field of five challengers, most of whom reported little or no campaign money. No public polling exists, but the district's partisan lean and Higgins's incumbency make a Republican hold overwhelmingly likely.","takeaway":"Republican Rep. Clay Higgins is overwhelmingly favored to win a sixth term in this deeply Republican Acadiana district.","key_reasons":["Louisiana's 3rd District is a strongly Republican, Acadiana-based seat, giving any GOP candidate a large structural advantage.","Incumbent Clay Higgins has a wide fundraising edge (roughly $823K raised this cycle) and strong name recognition after five terms.","The challenger field is fragmented across three Democrats, one No Party candidate, and a minor Republican with minimal reported resources, making it hard for any single alternative to consolidate support."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct vote-share evidence, and the majority-vote open primary format could still force a December runoff.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T09:10:12.453669Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.kplctv.com/2026/10/07/whats-your-ballot-nov-3/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA03148/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/clay-higgins/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/clay-higgins/summary","https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/16/salter-clay-higgins-aoc-climate-hearing/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/LA/03/2026/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA","https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://johndayforcongress.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00890145/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00819961/?tab=about-committee"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"No Party Affiliation":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.995,"Democratic":0.004,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":40,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"No Party Affiliation":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.035}},{"id":"la-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 4th Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T13:18:24.517250+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Johnson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Speaker_Mike_Johnson_Official_Portrait_%28cropped%29%28b%29.jpg"},{"name":"Conrad Cable","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Conrad_Cable_20250827_024416.jpg"},{"name":"Matthew Gromlich","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MatthewGromlich2025.png"},{"name":"Gordon Heslop","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gordon_Heslop_20260123_074036.jpeg"},{"name":"Mike Nichols","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/MikeNichols.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Johnson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.01,"Republican":0.99},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Louisiana's 4th is the state's most Republican district, and Speaker Mike Johnson pairs that deep partisan advantage with a lopsided fundraising edge over a field of two Democrats and two Republican challengers. With the opposition vote split across four candidates in the November 3 majority-vote primary, Johnson is positioned to clear 50% outright or win any December runoff comfortably.","takeaway":"Speaker Mike Johnson is overwhelmingly favored to win reelection in Louisiana's heavily Republican 4th District.","key_reasons":["The district is the most Republican in Louisiana by a wide margin, leaving Democrats with no realistic path in a normal cycle.","Johnson holds a decisive incumbency and resource advantage: roughly $21M raised and $9.6M cash on hand as of July 18, 2026, versus challengers who each raised only a few hundred thousand dollars, largely self-funded.","The majority-vote (jungle) primary format divides the anti-incumbent vote among two Democrats and two Republican challengers, making an outright Johnson win on November 3 the most likely outcome."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this race, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct vote evidence, and the December runoff threshold is the main mechanical unknown.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T13:18:17.744800Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.knoe.com/2026/08/06/candidate-qualifying-begins-november-election/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00002592","https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA04138/","https://www.knoe.com/2026/04/16/political-candidates-file-campaign-finance-details/","https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/mike-johnsons-donors-could-become-key-funders-for-house-gop.html","https://www.eenews.net/articles/republican-speaker-candidates-flush-with-fossil-fuel-cash/","https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/climate/mike-johnson-climate-policies.html","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mike-johnson/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00608695/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA04187/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/conrad-cable/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA04195/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mike-nichols","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Louisiana","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/matthew-gromlich/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/gordon-heslop","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/gordon-heslop/donors","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/missouri-congressional-incumbents-flush-cash-heading-primary-election","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA04203/","https://mikenicholsforcongress.com/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mike-nichols/donors"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.99,"Democratic":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":45,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.995,"Democratic":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":45,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":45,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.025}},{"id":"la-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 5th Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T11:57:03.305392+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dan McKay","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan_McKay_20260227_095604.jpg"},{"name":"Patricia Moore","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Reps/RepPicsLarge/rep17.jpg"},{"name":"Antonio Wilson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-0248_20260819_063217_52062_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Stewart Cathey","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stewart_Cathey_20230521_075041.jpg"},{"name":"Misti Cordell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Misti_Cordell_20260306_071817.jpg"},{"name":"Oscar Dantzler","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Oscar_Dantzler.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Echols","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Echols_2026.jpeg"},{"name":"Gabe Firment","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gabe_Firment_20230523_085902.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Safe Republican and gives the Republican candidate a 96% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 35 points. No head-to-head public poll between the current candidates was available, so the estimate rests on non-polling evidence.","takeaway":"The Republican candidate is favored, with a 96% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Safe Republican (the Republican candidate: 96% chance of winning).","Polling: 0 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T11:56:52.127865Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA05291/","https://www.knoe.com/2026/04/16/political-candidates-file-campaign-finance-details/","https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Patricia_Moore_(Louisiana)","https://patmooreforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Antonio_Wilson","https://ballotpedia.org/Stewart_Cathey","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u","https://ivoterguide.com/candidate/46767/race/8138/election/1038?culture=en-us","https://ballotpedia.org/Misti_Cordell","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/julia-letlow","https://lailluminator.com/2026/04/29/do-louisiana-voters-care-where-their-member-of-congress-lives/","https://ballotpedia.org/Oscar_Dantzler","https://ballotpedia.org/Michael_Echols","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/michael-gabriel-firment-gevsj","https://ballotpedia.org/Gabe_Firment"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.985,"Democratic":0.015},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.025}},{"id":"la-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Louisiana's 6th Congressional District","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"pre_primary","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T22:22:04.531272+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Blake Miguez","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Blake_Miguez.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Edmonds","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_Edmonds_20240311_023602.jpg"},{"name":"Monique Appeaning","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Monique-Ballotpedia-Profile-Upload_20260803_193017_32227_1.jpg"},{"name":"Larry Davis","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://lailluminator.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Larry-Davis-2.jpg"},{"name":"Chauna Banks","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chauna_Banks-Daniel12.jpg"},{"name":"Pat Forbes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Lindsay Garcia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LRG-Headshot_20260423_030752_14067.png"},{"name":"Rufus Craig","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rufus_Craig.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9598,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.0001,"Republican":0.9598},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 6th District is strongly Republican-leaning, and the GOP field dominates fundraising — Blake Miguez reported about $6.6M and Rick Edmonds about $530K, versus no reported receipts for the Democratic candidates as of the July 18 filing. Both public polls show a fragmented field with no candidate near a majority (top share 13.8% in the September JMC Analytics poll and 18.8% in the August BDPC poll), which points to a December runoff in which the district's partisan lean should favor a Republican.","takeaway":"Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win this open, redrawn Baton Rouge-area seat, though the crowded field points to a December runoff.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district, created after the Callais ruling dismantled the Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport majority-Black seat, is strongly Republican-leaning, making a Democratic win a long shot.","Republican candidates dominate fundraising: Miguez reported roughly $6.6M and Edmonds roughly $530K through July 18, 2026, while the Democratic candidates reported no receipts by that deadline.","Both public polls show a fragmented field with no candidate near a majority, indicating a December runoff where the district's partisan lean should favor a Republican."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse — only two public surveys, both of an all-party primary rather than a head-to-head runoff — so the race turns on which candidates advance to December and whether Republican vote-splitting lets a Democrat reach the runoff.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T22:21:59.749624Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.wbrz.com/news/wbrz-to-host-6th-district-congressional-debate-in-october/","https://www.nola.com/news/politics/3-democrats-think-they-can-win-gop-tilted-congressional-seat/article_18209da8-e74d-4dfc-a345-6f5e2c3f34a4.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA05234/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/LA","https://ballotpedia.org/Louisiana%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=28215323&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA05226/","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://ivoterguide.com/candidate/46382/race/8111/election/1038?culture=en-us","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA06158/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA05168/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA06174/","https://www.wbrz.com/news/10-candidates-qualify-for-louisiana-s-6th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6LA05309/","https://www.knoe.com/2026/04/16/political-candidates-file-campaign-finance-details/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/?q=Rufus%20Craig&api_key=DEMO_KEY&per_page=20&sort=-election_years"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.08,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"la-senate-2026","title":"2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Louisiana","state":"Louisiana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:00:16.881142+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Julia Letlow","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JuliaLetlowLA2.png"},{"name":"Jamie Davis","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jamie_Davis_26.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Julia Letlow","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1,"Republican":0.9},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Louisiana's strong Republican lean, Trump's endorsement, and Letlow's large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over a first-time statewide Democratic nominee make her a clear favorite. The only public poll, released by the Louisiana Democratic Party, shows Letlow ahead 41%-37% with 22% undecided, and undecided voters in a strongly Republican state typically break toward the GOP nominee.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold this Louisiana Senate seat, with Julia Letlow the likely winner.","key_reasons":["Louisiana is a strongly Republican state (roughly R+19 at the presidential level), and undecided voters there typically break toward the Republican nominee.","Letlow is the Trump-endorsed sitting House member with a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Jamie Davis.","The only public poll, released by the Louisiana Democratic Party, shows Letlow ahead 41%-37% with 22% undecided, and prediction markets price a Republican win near 91%."],"uncertainty":"The race rests on a single party-released poll with a large undecided share, and the NDA/stock-disclosure story could narrow the margin, so the final spread is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T22:16:56.816883Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.wwno.org/2026-08-19/poll-shows-4-point-difference-between-letlow-and-davis-for-u-s-senate-1-in-5-undecided","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATELA-26NOV-R","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATELA-26NOV-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATELA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATELA-26-R","https://www.nola.com/news/politics/louisiana-us-senate-house-q2-second-quarter-campaign-fundraising/article_f11e1645-ba8e-49ea-af00-91a121e22816.amp.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2LA05126/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/julia-letlow/us_congress/summary?mpid=1223200","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/julia-letlow/us_congress/industries?cycle=2024&mpid=1223200","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/julia-letlow/us_congress/pacs?cycle=2024&mpid=1223200","https://www.facebook.com/kplc7news/posts/according-to-the-fec-letlow-raked-in-53-million-in-campaign-contributions-betwee/1528076609365565/","https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democratic-nominee-jamie-davis-raises-210952520.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6LA00615/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jamie-davis/us_congress/summary?mpid=90890616","https://jamieforlouisiana.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXSENATELA-26NOV-D","event_ticker":"KXSENATELA-26NOV","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Louisiana?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0775,"yes_bid":0.071,"yes_ask":0.084,"last_price":0.095,"volume":52549.37,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:18.394448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATELA-26NOV-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXSENATELA-26NOV-R","event_ticker":"KXSENATELA-26NOV","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Louisiana?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.914,"yes_bid":0.903,"yes_ask":0.925,"last_price":0.907,"volume":17469.55,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:19.498027Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSENATELA-26NOV-R","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATELA-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATELA-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kentucky?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0505,"yes_bid":0.05,"yes_ask":0.051,"last_price":0.05,"volume":79465.16,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:14.737871Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATELA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATELA-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATELA-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kentucky?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.951,"yes_bid":0.949,"yes_ask":0.953,"last_price":0.952,"volume":75403.5,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:15.722260Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATELA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"ma-governor-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts Governor Election","office":"Governor of Massachusetts","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T22:02:34.233912+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maura Healey","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Maura-Healey.PNG"},{"name":"Michael Minogue","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Minogue_20260103_081538.jpeg"},{"name":"Andrea James","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrea_James_20260421_011652.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maura Healey","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.045},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Massachusetts is reliably Democratic, and incumbent Gov. Maura Healey leads Republican Michael Minogue by 16 to 22 points in the two most recent public surveys, with all six listed head-to-head polls showing a double-digit lead. Healey's incumbency and donor-network fundraising advantage, set against a deep-blue state environment, make a Republican flip unlikely.","takeaway":"Healey is a heavy favorite to hold this Democratic seat, leading Minogue by 16-22 points in recent polling.","key_reasons":["Healey leads the two most recent public polls by wide margins: CommonWealth Beacon/MassINC (ended 2026-09-22) had her ahead 54-32 (+22) and UNH Survey Center (ended 2026-09-21) had her ahead 54-38 (+16).","Healey is the incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2014 and where she won in 2022 by a wide margin, giving her a strong partisan and incumbency advantage.","Healey's established donor network and cash position contrast with Minogue's largely self-funded campaign, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 95%."],"uncertainty":"The most recent public polls are from mid-to-late September, Minogue's self-funding and a super PAC's internal poll hinting at a closer race leave some upset risk, and independent Andrea James's ballot presence could shift the major-party margin.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T22:02:29.584492Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/poll-healey-cruising-in-reelection-bid-with-trump-high-on-voters-mind/","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/massachusetts","https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/6_16_2026_massachusetts_statewide_press_release.pdf?la=en&hash=FCCCC25E443E655A227BA5B1D5882E7D17677616","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMA-26-R","https://www.ocpf.us/filers?q=15710","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/maura-t-healey/contributors?cycle=2024&id=589565","https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/07/07/healey-tops-june-in-outside-donations-minogue-remains-ahead-with-cash-on-hand/","https://maurahealey.com/team-healey-driscoll-raises-over-2-3-million-in-first-quarter-of-2026-1-1-million-in-march-alone/","https://www.ocpf.us/filers?q=19431","https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/11/04/minogue-gop-governor-fundraising-healey","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/04/13/mass-republican-governor-candidate-mike-minogue-biotech-campaign","https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/12/08/michael-minogue-campaign-donation-gubernatorial-primary-healey-kennealy-shortsleeve","https://minogueforma.com/press-release/minogue-excels-at-fundraising-and-has-most-cash-on-hand-entering-2026/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/michael-minogue/?eventId=70504be85df64d6aa3be0abab621674d&marketId=092da399bde8469fadbcb85f136ed658","https://www.ocpf.us/Data","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/01/05/criminal-justice-advocate-andrea-james-plans-independent-gubernatorial-run","https://www.axios.com/local/boston/2026/04/06/andrea-james-independent-governor-massachusetts-healey-dark-money-one-commonwealth-2026","https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2026/05/06/independent-governor-candidate-makes-vineyard-campaign-stop","https://www.ocpf.us/Filers"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMA-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMA-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9475,"yes_bid":0.943,"yes_ask":0.952,"last_price":0.943,"volume":99705.22,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:55.959360Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMA-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMA-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.055499999999999994,"yes_bid":0.052,"yes_ask":0.059,"last_price":0.06,"volume":696112,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:39.713527Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.045,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.035,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"ma-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 1st Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T13:03:07.781906+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Richard Neal","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Richard_Neal.jpg"},{"name":"Nadia Milleron","party":"Unenrolled","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/NadiaMilleron2024.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Richard Neal","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8899,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8899,"Independent":0.1098,"Unenrolled":0.0003},"margin_estimate":24,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Neal is a 19-term incumbent and the ranking Democrat on Ways and Means in a western Massachusetts district with a strong Democratic lean and no Republican on the ballot, giving him a large structural edge. Milleron's 37.3% showing against him in 2024 and her pledged $2 million-plus self-funded campaign make her a credible but uphill challenger.","takeaway":"Neal is clearly favored to hold this deep-blue seat, though no public polling and Milleron's self-funding leave real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Neal's incumbency, seniority as Ways and Means ranking member, and roughly $3.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-August 2026 far outpace Milleron's $43,868.88 raised through June 30, 2026.","The district's strong Democratic lean and the absence of a Republican on the certified ballot leave Milleron needing to assemble an outright anti-Neal majority rather than a plurality.","Milleron's 2024 baseline of 37.3% against Neal shows a real but limited ceiling for an independent challenge, even with at least $2 million of self-funding behind it."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the Neal–Milleron general election exists, so the forecast rests on incumbency, district lean and fundraising; the race turns on whether Milleron's self-funded spending can convert Neal's softer 55% primary showing into a general-election majority.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T13:03:01.160068Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-state-election-candidates.htm","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/massachusetts-1/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MA02041/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/richard-e-neal","https://wmasspi.com/2026/08/inside-the-413s-congressional-primary-finances-from-accounts-to-airwaves.html","https://www.masslive.com/westernmass/2026/07/how-much-money-are-1st-congressional-district-candidates-raising.html","https://theshoestring.org/2024/09/16/for-rep-richard-neal-corporate-cash-reigns-supreme/","https://www.masslive.com/westernmass/2026/09/us-rep-neal-beats-back-whalen-takes-congressional-race-for-1st-district.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MA01091/","https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/09/16/newsletters/neal-challenge-nadia-milleron-the-scrum/","https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/rep-neal-primary-margin-thinned-225902994.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadia_Milleron"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Independent":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Independent":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Unenrolled":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"ma-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"uncontested","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T04:00:40.901531+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James P. McGovern","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Jim_McGovern%2C_official_portrait%2C_116th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"James P. McGovern","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern is unopposed: he is the sole candidate on the Democratic primary ballot and no Republican filed for the general election in a heavily Democratic district (D+13 Cook PVI). With no challenger of any kind, his re-election is a virtual certainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T03:30:36.113605Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/dem-state-primary-candidates2026.htm","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MA03022/","https://theshoestring.org/2024/09/13/corporate-cash-still-flows-to-mcgovern/","https://www.masslive.com/politics/2019/02/us-rep-jim-mcgovern-swears-off-corporate-pac-money.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/n00000179/us_congress/summary?mpid=1046170"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ma-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T21:22:29.937691+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lori Trahan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LORI_TRAHAN.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Grossi","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GaryGrossi2026_2026-08-03_145559.jpeg"},{"name":"Dennis Conlon","party":"Unenrolled","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lori Trahan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.967,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.967,"Independent":0.0001,"Republican":0.0279,"Unenrolled":0.005},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan is heavily favored to win a fifth term in this strongly Democratic district, holding a dominant fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican Gary Grossi and unenrolled candidate Dennis Conlon. The district's consistent Safe/Solid Democratic lean, Trahan's 99.2% primary win, and the absence of any public polling or competitive opposition spending point to a comfortable Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Democrats are heavily favored to retain Massachusetts's 3rd District, with incumbent Lori Trahan expected to win a fifth term.","key_reasons":["Trahan is the incumbent seeking a fifth term in a district uniformly rated Safe/Solid Democratic by major nonpartisan handicappers and has won re-election comfortably since 2018.","Trahan holds an overwhelming financial edge (~$1.77M cash on hand vs. ~$5.8K for Grossi), with no public polling suggesting competitiveness.","Grossi and Conlon are underfunded challengers; Conlon's unenrolled, self-funded bid is a minor factor."],"uncertainty":"There is no public polling for this race, and Conlon's unenrolled bid adds a minor unknown, but neither factor is expected to threaten the incumbent's strong position.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:22:23.286068Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lori-trahan/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MA03106/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lori-trahan/industries","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/lori-trahan","https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Lori+Trahan+Announces+%24161K+in+Federal+Funding+for+Local+Law+Enforcement","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MA03100/","https://ballotpedia.org/Gary_Grossi","https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/rep-state-primary-candidates2026.htm"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Unenrolled":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.028,"Independent":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Unenrolled":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"ma-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 4th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T21:11:04.710115+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jake Auchincloss","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Rep._Jake_Auchincloss_218th_Congress_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Thomas Stalcup","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://i0.wp.com/tomstalcup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/me_washington.png?fit=465%2C558&ssl=1"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jake Auchincloss","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Massachusetts's 4th is a heavily Democratic district stretching from the Boston suburbs to Fall River, and three-term incumbent Jake Auchincloss won renomination with roughly 72% of the primary vote while holding a commanding financial edge over Republican Thomas Stalcup. Stalcup has minimal fundraising and no public polling showing competitiveness, leaving Democrats overwhelmingly favored in November.","takeaway":"Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold this safely Democratic seat.","key_reasons":["Heavily Democratic district with a three-term incumbent who won renomination with roughly 72% of the primary vote.","Auchincloss holds a massive financial edge: roughly $7.34M cash on hand versus about $26K raised by Stalcup, who is almost entirely self-funded.","No general-election polling exists, but the certified ballot lists only Auchincloss and Stalcup, with no sign of a competitive challenge."],"uncertainty":"There is no general-election polling of this matchup, so the margin estimate rests on district fundamentals rather than survey data; a low-turnout or national wave scenario could shift the margin modestly while leaving the outcome in little doubt.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:10:59.227140Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-state-election-candidates.htm","https://www.wpri.com/news/politics/auchincloss-poll-shows-big-lead-over-primary-challenger-poulos/","https://www.newtonbeacon.org/survey-shows-auchincloss-with-47-point-lead-over-poulos/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/massachusetts-us-house-4-polls-2026.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MA04192/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/jake-auchincloss","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jake-auchincloss/summary","https://bcheights.com/231516/metro/newton/auchincloss-amasses-7-million-war-chest-trounces-primary-challengers-in-fundraising/","https://poulos.house/2026/01/17/pro-israel-lobby-auchincloss-contributions.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00945477/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":34,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"ma-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 5th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"uncontested","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T21:19:23.573703+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Katherine Clark","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Katherine_Clark.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Katherine Clark","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9998,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9998,"Independent":0.0001,"Republican":0.0001},"margin_estimate":95,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Katherine Clark is the only certified candidate on the November 3, 2026 general-election ballot in Massachusetts's 5th District, making the race uncontested after independent Derek Fleming failed to qualify and no Republican advanced from the primary. The D+24 district, held by Democrats since 1975, combined with Clark's incumbency as House Minority Whip and her roughly 74% primary win, makes a Democratic victory a near-certainty.","takeaway":"Katherine Clark is virtually certain to win re-election unopposed in this safely Democratic district.","key_reasons":["Clark is the only candidate on the certified general-election ballot; the race is uncontested.","The district is strongly Democratic (D+24) and has been held by Democrats since 1975.","Clark is a strong incumbent and House Minority Whip who won her primary with about 74% of the vote."],"uncertainty":"With no opponent on the ballot, the main uncertainty is write-in and blank-ballot voting, which could modestly lower Clark's final share of the vote.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:19:19.286959Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-state-election-candidates.htm","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MA05084/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/katherine-m-clark","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-democrat-survives-double-barreled-challenge-partys-israel-divide-hits-home","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MA"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":99,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.999,"Republican":0.0005,"Independent":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":95,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":95,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.001}},{"id":"ma-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 6th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T07:25:27.132192+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dan Koh","party":"Democratic Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan-Koh_20260622_153456_41931_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Micah Jones","party":"Republican Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Micah-Q_Jones-Headshot_20260714_184349_45700_1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dan Koh","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Massachusetts's 6th is a strongly Democratic open seat, and Dan Koh — the well-funded nominee who won the September 1 primary with 42.2% — faces a Republican challenger with roughly a 10-to-1 fundraising disadvantage. No general-election polling exists, but the district's structural lean makes a Democratic hold highly probable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-02T06:54:37.860729Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/09/01/massachusetts-6th-district-primary-results","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MA03072/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/dan-koh/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/dan-koh/us_congress/summary?mpid=1149659","https://working-mass.com/2026/08/19/dan-koh-labors-candidate-in-ma-06-took-over-180000-from-aipac-donors/","https://andovermanews.com/koh-campaign-took-contributions-from-executives-at-controversial-tech-firms/","https://swampscotttides.org/top-story/swampscott-campaign-donations-offer-a-glimpse-at-senate-6th-district-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00654509/","https://www.marbleheadindependent.com/koh-wins-crowded-democratic-primary-to-succeed-moulton/","https://swampscotttides.org/news/swampscott-campaign-donations-offer-a-glimpse-at-senate-6th-district-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MA06202/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/micah-jones/donors","https://micahqjones.com/micah-jones-surpasses-250-thousand-raised-in-just-55-days/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ma-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 7th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"uncontested","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T21:16:13.877075+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ayanna_Pressley.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ayanna Pressley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9991,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9991,"Independent":0.0002,"Republican":0.0007},"margin_estimate":98,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Pressley is the only candidate on the certified November 3 general-election ballot, making this race functionally uncontested in a D+34 district. As a four-term incumbent who took 98.4% in the Democratic primary, her re-election is a near-certainty.","takeaway":"Pressley is virtually certain to win a fifth term in this uncontested, heavily Democratic Boston-based district.","key_reasons":["The certified general-election ballot lists only Ayanna Pressley, so the race is uncontested.","The district is D+34 and Pressley is a four-term incumbent who won her primary with 98.4% of the vote.","No Republican or other qualified opponent filed for the seat."],"uncertainty":"Residual uncertainty is limited to write-in votes or ballot-status complications rather than any credible opposing campaign.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:16:11.419997Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://r.jina.ai/https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-state-election-candidates.htm","https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/ayanna-pressley","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.999,"Republican":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":98,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.999,"Republican":0.0005,"Independent":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":98,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0}},{"id":"ma-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T21:10:45.837928+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Stephen Lynch","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephen_Lynch.jpg"},{"name":"Robert Burke","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Robert-Burke.PNG"},{"name":"Rasheed Nicholas Walters","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Stephen Lynch","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":42,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Massachusetts' 8th District is heavily Democratic, and 25-year incumbent Stephen Lynch has beaten Republican Robert Burke by roughly 40 points in each of the last two cycles while vastly out-raising him. With no general-election polling available, district fundamentals and a weak opposition field make a Lynch victory essentially certain.","takeaway":"Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold MA-08, with incumbent Stephen Lynch heavily favored over Burke and Walters.","key_reasons":["Heavily Democratic district with a 25-year incumbent who beat Burke by roughly 40 points in both 2022 and 2024.","Burke has raised $0 with negative cash on hand, while Lynch raised about $910k with organized-labor backing.","Walters, a conservative independent, is more likely to split the anti-Lynch vote than to threaten the incumbent."],"uncertainty":"No general-election polling exists for this race, so confidence rests on district fundamentals and prior-cycle results rather than current survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:10:41.978611Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/massachusetts-us-house-district-8-results","https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/massachusetts-8/forecast/","https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-state-election-candidates.htm","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MA09072/","https://www.southshore.news/p/lynch-and-roath-trade-accusations","https://www.masslive.com/politics/2026/07/a-democratic-challenger-is-outraising-an-incumbent-boston-congressman-as-the-primary-nears.html","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MA","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MA08090/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/robert-burke/about"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":42,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.997,"Republican":0.002,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.05,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":42,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.067}},{"id":"ma-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts's 9th Congressional District","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T05:32:38.962963+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bill Keating","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":null},{"name":"Tyler MacAllister","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bill Keating","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating, first elected in 2010 and fresh off a 77% primary win, holds a commanding structural edge in a strongly Democratic-leaning district even though it is the least liberal Democratic-held seat in Massachusetts. Republican Tyler MacAllister, a grassroots-funded local official, faces a steep climb with no public polling suggesting competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-02T05:05:07.163487Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483276","https://keating.house.gov/about/full-biography","https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts%27_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/dem-state-primary-candidates2026.htm","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MA10082/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/william-r-keating","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MA09206/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ma-senate-2026","title":"2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Massachusetts","state":"Massachusetts","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:10:46.453333+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Edward J. Markey","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ed_Markey__Official_Portrait__112th_Congress_2-7_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"John Deaton","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JohnDeaton.jpg"},{"name":"Shiva Ayyadurai","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/Shiva_Ayyadurai_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Joe Tache","party":"Party for Socialism and Liberation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JosephTache2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Edward J. Markey","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.984,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.984,"Independent":0.002,"Republican":0.013,"Socialism and Liberation":0.001},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Markey leads Deaton by 16 to 25 points across four public general-election surveys, with the latest four-way UNH poll showing him at 53% to Deaton's 30% and Tache at 9%. Massachusetts' deep-blue lean, Markey's incumbency and decisive primary win, and Deaton's modest resources make this a safe Democratic seat.","takeaway":"Markey is heavily favored to win re-election in deep-blue Massachusetts, with Deaton trailing by double digits in every poll.","key_reasons":["Recent public polls show Markey ahead of Deaton by 16-25 points, including a 53%-30% four-way lead in the latest UNH survey.","Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Markey is a well-funded incumbent who won his primary by roughly two-to-one.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 98.5%, and Deaton's modest fundraising and 2024 loss to Warren leave him little path."],"uncertainty":"The June UNH poll shows a narrower 16-point margin, and the October 13 debate plus minor-party candidates (Tache at 9%) could shift the final margin even if not the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T21:18:13.656961Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1972&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.wcvb.com/article/markey-moulton-umass-poll-aug-17/73437119","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1988&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/massachusetts","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMA-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ed-markey/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1045495","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4MA00028/","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/08/04/debate-markey-moulton-fact-checks-senate-massachusetts","https://www.figcitynews.com/2026/08/the-money-behind-the-sept-1-primary-campaigns/","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/08/05/charts-markey-moulton-money-raised/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MA00304/","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/01/05/u-s-senate-candidate-deaton-pays-off-massgop-debt","https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/12/crypto-executives-put-money-behind-longshot-bid-to-oust-elizabeth-warren-00151882","https://thescopeboston.org/10531/uncategorized/the-scopes-conversation-with-senate-candidate-john-deaton/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4MA00358/","https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/01/05/metro/john-deaton-350000-donation-state-gop-debts/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8MA00268/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/senate/MA","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MA00288/","https://thescopeboston.org/10547/boston-elections/the-scopes-conversation-with-senate-candidate-joe-tache/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMA-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEMA-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Massachusetts?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9864999999999999,"yes_bid":0.985,"yes_ask":0.988,"last_price":0.988,"volume":8506.49,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:21.980411Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMA-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEMA-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Massachusetts?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0135,"yes_bid":0.012,"yes_ask":0.015,"last_price":0.015,"volume":7286.18,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:23.055590Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.012,"Independent":0.002,"Socialism and 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Moore","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Wes_Moore.jpg"},{"name":"Dan Cox","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/Dan_Cox_Mar2020_%2849617550556%29.jpg"},{"name":"Andy Ellis","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy_Ellis.png"},{"name":"Cathy White","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CathyWhite.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Wes Moore","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Green":0.003,"Republican":0.025,"Working Class":0.002},"margin_estimate":26,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Wes Moore leads Dan Cox by 27 points in the most recent UMBC Institute of Politics survey (51-24) and by the same margin in the earlier Zenith Research poll (58-31), with third-party candidates in the low single digits. Maryland's strong Democratic lean, Moore's large fundraising edge, and a 2022 rematch he won decisively reinforce a Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore is heavily favored to win a second term in this Democratic-leaning state.","key_reasons":["Moore leads Cox by 27 points in the newest UMBC Institute of Politics poll of 776 likely voters (51-24), with Andy Ellis and Cathy White at 3% each.","Maryland is a strongly Democratic state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2014, and Moore defeated Cox in the 2022 general election.","Moore holds a large fundraising advantage (about $14.4 million) while Cox's fundraising has been described as comparatively limited."],"uncertainty":"Polling is limited to two surveys, so the size of the margin is less certain than the direction, and the newest survey leaves a meaningful share of voters unaccounted for.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T02:04:22.847253Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://politics.umbc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/778/2026/10/UMBC-Poll-Tuesday-Oct-6.pdf","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/08/12/poll-moore-enjoys-comfortable-early-lead-against-cox-in-governors-rematch/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMD-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMD-26-R","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=54439369","https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/state-government/maryland-governor-race-campaign-fundraising-republican-wes-moore-5KV7EPXRPNFWTIG5EEIBA2O42E/","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/us/politics/wes-moore-dan-cox-maryland.html","https://baltimorefishbowl.com/stories/maryland-green-party-candidate-isnt-looking-to-win-over-a-majority-of-voters-he-just-wants-1/","https://www.lwvmd.org/interview_with_cathy_white"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMD-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMD-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maryland","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.973,"yes_bid":0.966,"yes_ask":0.98,"last_price":0.982,"volume":12665.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:42.768334Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMD-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMD-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMD-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Maryland","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0285,"yes_bid":0.023,"yes_ask":0.034,"last_price":0.037,"volume":40951.99,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:43.764580Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMD-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Green":0.003,"Working Class":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":26,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Green":0.003,"Working Class":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":27,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.05,"Green":0.005,"Working Class":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":23,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"md-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 1st Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T15:10:51.207041+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Andy Harris","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy_Harris.jpg"},{"name":"Dan Schwartz","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan_Schwartz_20250504_011314.jpg"},{"name":"Edward Shlikas","party":"Unaffiliated","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-8393_20260510_143611_26849.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Andy Harris","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Andy Harris, who has represented this strongly Republican Eastern Shore district since 2011 and won his June primary with ~80%, enters the general election with a roughly 3:1 fundraising advantage over Democrat Dan Schwartz and a double-digit lead (52-39) in the one public poll of the race. Schwartz is running a credible grassroots campaign, but the district's structural Republican lean, Harris's incumbency, and the polling gap make a Harris re-election by far the most likely outcome.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T19:43:22.595559Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/primary_results/gen_results_2026_4_1_P.html","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/maryland-1/forecast/","https://pollcast.net/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00435974/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD01320/","https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maryland-us-house-1-general-election/forecast","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://insideelections.com/person/andrew-p-harris/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/andy-harris/us_congress/summary","https://marylandreporter.com/2026/04/09/u-s-rep-andy-harris-is-a-long-term-incumbent-but-democrats-hope-they-can-beat-him-in-2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=Shlikas","https://www.opensecrets.org/search?q=shlikas"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T04:33:46.199291+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Johnny Olszewski Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/Johnny_Olszewski_119th_congress.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=api&utm_content=thumbnail_unscaled"},{"name":"Dave Wallace","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dave_Wallace.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Johnny Olszewski Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Johnny Olszewski Jr. runs in a strongly Democratic-leaning district (Baltimore County/City base) with a roughly 50-to-1 fundraising edge, while Republican Dave Wallace has minimal resources, no elected experience, and lost prior House bids. With no public polling, the district's structural lean and incumbency make a Democratic hold highly likely, with the main question being the size of the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-04T04:33:24.412281Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/general_candidates/2026_GG_statewide_candidatelist.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MD02232/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MD06138/","https://mdbaynews.com/2026/08/13/md-2-general-election-2026-olszewski-wallace/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Johnny+Olszewski+just+disclosed+%24144.1K+of+new+fundraising","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=4803906&default=contributor"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:05:58.323187+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sarah Elfreth","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://elfreth.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/elfreth.house.gov/files/styles/evo_image_portrait_480/public/evo-media-image/2024-11-19_ike_elfreth_sarah_0007_re_web_0.jpg?itok=Dn_GhcsH"},{"name":"Bernard Flowers","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BernardFlowers2026.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sarah Elfreth","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Maryland's 3rd District is strongly Democratic (PVI D+12), and incumbent Sarah Elfreth won the open seat in 2024 with 59.4% before cruising to the 2026 primary with 78.2%. Her roughly 90-to-1 fundraising advantage over Republican Bernard Flowers, a four-time underdog candidate, reinforces her commanding position.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T13:23:54.158649Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/primary_results/gen_results_2026_4.html","https://mdbaynews.com/2026/08/17/md3-general-election-elfreth-flowers-fundraising/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 4th Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T14:42:56.105592+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Glenn F. Ivey","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Glenn_Ivey.png"},{"name":"George McDermott","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/George_McDermott.JPG"},{"name":"Sam Husseini","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/amplify_video_thumb/2087872492123668480/img/2MJeUU_uV9ULL0PU?format=webp&name=medium"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Glenn F. Ivey","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Green":0.005},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey represents a D+39, heavily Democratic Black-majority district spanning Prince George's and Montgomery counties, with a ~$674,000 fundraising haul and ~$459,000 cash on hand. Republican George McDermott is a perennial candidate with no active finance committee or elected-office record, while Green nominee Sam Husseini runs a left-flank protest campaign centered on Gaza policy rather than a competitive general-election bid.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T19:40:04.804539Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://mdbaynews.com/2026/08/21/md-4-ivey-mcdermott-husseini-2026-election/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00792283/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00489062/?cycle=2010","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/george-mcdermott/us_congress/elections?mpid=1079030","https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/primary_results/gen_results_2026_4.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/glenn-ivey/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1108775","https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/10/congress-member-pro-israel-donations-military-support","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD04399/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00957712/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=MD04","https://ballotpedia.org/Sam_Husseini","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MD"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 5th Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T15:40:21.787833+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adrian Boafo","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AdrianBoafo.png"},{"name":"Chris Chaffee","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris-Chaffee.PNG"},{"name":"Mildred Hall","party":"Other","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adrian Boafo","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Maryland's 5th is a heavily Democratic open seat, and Democratic nominee Adrian Boafo pairs retiring incumbent Hoyer's endorsement with backing from Gov. Moore and Sen. Alsobrooks plus more than $11 million in outside PAC support. Republican Chris Chaffee, a perennial candidate with no reported fundraising in this race, faces an extremely steep structural climb, though no public general-election polling exists to confirm the current environment.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T15:01:07.987095Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD05321/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MD","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MD03557/","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/05/12/the-apprentice-boafo-fills-coffers-with-support-from-hoyers-political-network/","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/07/17/it-came-from-different-places-but-money-talked-in-house-races/","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/us/politics/aipac-crypto-maryland-house-races.html","https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/06/60006632/crypto-money-floods-maryland-primary-to-back-adrian-boafo","https://www.theblock.co/news/macro/2026-07-01-ripple-coinbase-election-donations-406851","https://boafoformaryland.com/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Republican_primary)","https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/general_candidates/2026_GG_statewide_candidatelist.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Jonathan_Burruss","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD05271/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-md-5","https://www.brianjordanforcongress.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD05305/","https://ballotpedia.org/Mildred_Hall","https://politics1.com/md.htm"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 6th Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T23:02:28.645099+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"April McClain Delaney","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AprilMcClainDelaney.jpg"},{"name":"Robin Ficker","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Robin-Ficker.PNG"},{"name":"Moshe Landman","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MosheLandman2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"April McClain Delaney","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Green":0.01,"Republican":0.17},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent April McClain Delaney holds the advantages of incumbency, a Democratic-leaning district that she carried in 2024, and a large fundraising edge over a Republican challenger whose campaign is almost entirely self-funded. With no public polling logged, the forecast rests on that structural and financial picture rather than on measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Delaney is clearly favored to hold Maryland's 6th District, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Delaney is the incumbent in a district that has recently leaned Democratic, giving her a meaningful baseline advantage.","Delaney's fundraising far exceeds Ficker's, whose campaign is almost entirely self-funded with no significant outside donor base or PAC support.","No public polling or prediction-market signal exists, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency and candidate field, with the Green nominee a minor factor."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Democratic lean and Delaney's incumbency and fundraising hold up in a midterm environment, since no public polling or market signal is available to confirm the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T23:02:23.755345Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MD06340/","https://bethesdamagazine.com/2026/07/16/6th-dist-financial-returns-mcclain-delaney-trone-poured-combined-36m-in-personal-assets-into-primary-battle/","https://www.openwatchdog.com/member/M001232","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/april-mcclain-delaney","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/06/13/candidates-add-tens-of-millions-in-self-funding-as-congressional-primaries-loom/","https://www.fox5dc.com/news/april-mcclain-delaney-wins-democratic-primary-marylands-6th-congressional-district-seat","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MD08171/","https://bethesdamagazine.com/2026/06/15/trone-mcclain-delaney-millions-self-funding-campaigns-primary/","https://mdbaynews.com/category/maryland-2026-elections/campaign-finances-2026/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Maryland","https://www.moshelandman.us/vote-support-us","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2024"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.11,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.3,"Green":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.2}},{"id":"md-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 7th Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:46:28.313581+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kweisi Mfume","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MFUME.jpeg"},{"name":"Scott M. 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No public polling exists for this contest, so the forecast rests on the district's overwhelming partisan lean, incumbency, and Collier's status as a self-financed perennial candidate.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:46:15.748086Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/maryland-7/","https://results.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/primary_results/gen_results_2026_4.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD07020/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MD","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MD02255/","http://www.scottcollier.org/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"md-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Maryland's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maryland's 8th Congressional District","state":"Maryland","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T14:46:31.598818+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jamie Raskin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jamie_Raskin.jpg"},{"name":"Cheryl Riley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cheryl_Riley_20241022_115748.jpg"},{"name":"Nancy Wallace","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nancy-Wallace.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jamie Raskin","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Maryland's 8th is a heavily Democratic suburban district, and incumbent Jamie Raskin enters the general with overwhelming advantages in profile and fundraising ($7.4M raised) over Republican Cheryl Riley (~$17K) and Green nominee Nancy Wallace. Riley lost to Raskin by 56 points here in 2024 with essentially the same field, making a competitive outcome highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T14:46:18.070301Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/maryland-8/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MD08457/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MD08213/","https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/archive/2024/General_Results/gen_results_2024_3_8_P.html","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jamie-raskin/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jamie-raskin/summary","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/06/13/candidates-add-tens-of-millions-in-self-funding-as-congressional-primaries-loom/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MD","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/cheryl-riley/about","https://ballotpedia.org/Maryland%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2024"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"me-governor-2026","title":"2026 Maine Governor Election","office":"Governor of Maine","jurisdiction":"Maine","state":"Maine","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T08:24:00.812412+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hannah Pingree","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Pingh_.jpg"},{"name":"Bobby Charles","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/bobbycharles.jpeg"},{"name":"Rick Bennett","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://legislature.maine.gov/uploads/visual_edit/bennett-5x7.jpg"},{"name":"Randy Wilcox","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"John Glowa","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JohnGlowa2025.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hannah Pingree","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Likely Democratic and gives Hannah Pingree (Democratic) a 93% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 12 points. The estimate draws on 6 public polls with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Hannah Pingree (Democratic) is favored, with a 93% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Likely Democratic (Hannah Pingree (Democratic): 93% chance of winning).","Polling: 6 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T21:05:58.548031Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/","https://mainebeacon.com/pingree-holds-double-digit-lead-as-voters-back-public-option-for-health-insurance/","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/10/01/politics/elections/maine-election-governor-2026-hannah-pingree-bobby-charles-aarp-poll/","https://assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/cms/prod_cms_alt/file/2026/10/02/3eea12d2-f488-4cf2-bc3b-ac5adff5db7e/cbsnews_20261002_maine.pdf","https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/08/fox_august-6-10-2026_maine_topline_august-12-release-1.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYME-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYME-26-R","https://www.mainecampaignfinancedisclosure.com/public/filers/f_01k89h8gcjegf9qpwdk7sh8g2x","https://www.pressherald.com/2026/07/22/hannah-pingree-dominates-fundraising-in-maine-governors-race/","https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/01/16/a-look-at-how-maines-gubernatorial-candidates-fundraising-stacks-up/","https://www.themainewire.com/2026/07/latest-campaign-finance-reports-highlight-sharp-fundraising-contrast-between-pingree-and-charles/","https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/08/19/maine-voters-wanted-limits-on-political-spending-what-they-got-was-another-big-money-race/","https://www.mainecampaignfinancedisclosure.com/public/registrations/r_01khxvmtedfdx82mpmx5gwbbea","https://www.themainewire.com/2026/07/pingree-opens-3-million-fundraising-lead-in-maine-governors-race/","https://www.foxbangor.com/news/election-stories/a-look-at-the-funding-for-maines-gubernatorial-candidates/article_ce864872-7388-4d86-aa96-6f82d38adae4.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election","https://www.wabi.tv/2026/04/09/state-sen-jim-libby-drop-out-maine-governors-race-after-failing-qualify-clean-elections-candidate/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYME-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYME-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Maine","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.949,"yes_bid":0.942,"yes_ask":0.956,"last_price":0.956,"volume":30513.79,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:46.432662Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYME-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYME-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYME-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in 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House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maine's 1st Congressional District","state":"Maine","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T06:45:26.218498+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chellie Pingree","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chellie_Pingree.jpg"},{"name":"Ronald Russell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ronald_Russell.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chellie Pingree","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Chellie Pingree, first elected in 2008, has won repeated double-digit victories in this strongly Democratic Portland-anchored district and holds a roughly 6-to-1 fundraising edge over Republican Ronald Russell, who lost to her by 22 points in 2024. With no public general-election polling, the forecast rests on incumbency, district fundamentals, and the finance gap.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T06:45:16.658307Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_1st_Congressional_District","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/ME/01/2026/","https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-06-10/ron-russell-wins-gop-primary-to-challenge-incumbent-chellie-pingree","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/maine-1/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/chellie-pingree/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8ME01120/","https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/chellie_pingree/412307","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00433391/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/chellie-pingree/bills?bill_no=hr3873-118&cid=N00013817&cong=118&cycle=2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ME01160/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ME01160/?cycle=2024","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/ME"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"me-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Maine's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Maine's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Maine","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:47.373841+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Matthew Dunlap","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MatthewDunlap.jpg"},{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Paul_LePage.jpg"},{"name":"Gregory Ward","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Paul LePage","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.56,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.43,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.56},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"This open seat sits in a district that has voted Republican in recent presidential elections, and LePage's fundraising and outside-spending advantage give him a narrow edge. Polling is genuinely close — Dunlap led by 1 to 6 points in three of the four recent surveys, with one tied — so the race stays competitive rather than settled.","takeaway":"Republicans hold a narrow edge in this open-seat race, with LePage slightly favored over Dunlap despite close polling.","key_reasons":["Head-to-head polling is tight: Tulchin Research had Dunlap +2 (Sept. 26), UNH had Dunlap +6 (Sept. 21), Impact Research was tied (Sept. 12), and Tulchin had Dunlap +1 (July 16).","The district's Republican presidential history and LePage's fundraising and outside-spending advantage keep Republicans narrowly ahead, with prediction markets pricing a Republican win near 66%.","Dunlap's DCCC 'Red to Blue' backing and individual-donor-funded campaign keep the race competitive and prevent a Republican runaway."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Dunlap's narrow polling lead survives LePage's resource advantage and the district's Republican lean; polling is sparse, one survey was campaign-sponsored, and the market snapshot dates to mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:39.094692Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-house-2-polls-2026.html","https://www.pressherald.com/2026/09/25/matt-dunlap-leads-paul-lepage-in-2nd-district-race-unh-poll-finds/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEME2-26-R","https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/08/20/matt-dunlap-getting-a-boost-from-national-democrats/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEME2-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ME02171/","https://legis1.com/news/maine-2nd-congressional-district-2026-money-flows","https://dccc.org/matt-dunlap-added-to-dcccs-coveted-red-to-blue-program/","https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-08-20/after-irking-national-democrats-matt-dunlap-secures-their-support-in-2nd-district-race","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ME02148/","https://www.uschamber.com/improving-government/u-s-chamber-endorses-candidate-paul-lepage-for-maines-second-congressional-district","https://www.pressherald.com/?p=7707452"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEME2-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEME2-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for ME-2?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.345,"yes_bid":0.34,"yes_ask":0.35,"last_price":0.35,"volume":57984.2,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:30:13.185680Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEME2-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEME2-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEME2-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for ME-2?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.66,"yes_bid":0.65,"yes_ask":0.67,"last_price":0.67,"volume":72339.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:03:51.167439Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEME2-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.56,"Democratic":0.43,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.41,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.38,"Republican":0.62},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.21}},{"id":"me-senate-2026","title":"2026 Maine U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Maine","state":"Maine","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:06:10.496165+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Susan Collins","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Susan_Collins.jpg"},{"name":"Troy Jackson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Troy-Jackson.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Troy Jackson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.58,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.42},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Tilt Democratic and gives Troy Jackson (Democratic) a 58% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 2 points. The estimate draws on 22 public polls with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Troy Jackson (Democratic) is favored, with a 58% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Tilt Democratic (Troy Jackson (Democratic): 58% chance of winning).","Polling: 22 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":22,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T16:06:01.560387Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/","https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/09/poll-democrat-troy-jackson-narrowly-leads-susan-collins-maine-senate-race/","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2026/maine_senate_jackson_49_collins_47","https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/24/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters/","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/","https://www.maine.gov/sos/elections-voting/upcoming-elections","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEME-26-D","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/maine","https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ME-Midterms-Report-1001.pdf","https://mainebeacon.com/new-polling-jackson-narrowly-leads-collins-mainers-want-affordable-childcare/","https://www.pressherald.com/2026/10/01/aarp-poll-shows-older-mainers-leaning-toward-susan-collins-in-us-senate-race/","https://assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/cms/prod_cms_alt/file/2026/10/02/3eea12d2-f488-4cf2-bc3b-ac5adff5db7e/cbsnews_20261002_maine.pdf","https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/09242026-maine-poll.aspx","https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race","https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1007/","https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-maine-collins-46-jackson-46-iowa-turek-47-hinson-46/","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/collins-vs-jackson","https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins","https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/maine/","https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/08/fox_august-6-10-2026_maine_topline_august-12-release-1.pdf","https://www.notus.org/2026-election/platner-replacements-poll-maine-senate","https://web.archive.org/web/20260708202845/https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/08/graham-platner-polls-replacements-senate-00990664","https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/981/","https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jackson-polling-lead-susan-collins-sara-gideon-12292873","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEME-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/n00000491/us_congress/summary?mpid=1116679","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/susan-m-collins/us_congress/industries?mpid=1116679","https://legis1.com/news/susan-collins-2026-senate-race-the-money-behind","https://www.wmtw.com/article/jackson-begins-campaign-against-collins-with-massive-fundraising-gap/73265838","https://themainemonitor.org/billionaires-backing-collins-list/","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/12/politics/elections/maine-senate-election-susan-collins-billionaire-donors/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/susan-collins/us_congress/summary?mpid=1116679","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/susan-collins/industries?cid=N00000491&cycle=2020","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6ME00159/","https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/06/12/nearly-100-billionaires-and-their-spouses-have-donated-to-reelect-susan-collins/","https://themainemonitor.org/troy-jackson-unknown-finances/","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/07/27/politics/elections/maine-election-senate-troy-jackson-fundraising-2m/","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/troy-dale-jackson/contributors?cycle=2020&id=6454231&recs=100","https://www.commondreams.org/news/maine-senate-fundraising","https://www.dscc.org/article/what-theyre-saying-gop-admits-troy-jackson-can-win-as-underwater-collins-faces-rough-road-most-difficult-political-environment-of-her/","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/news/2026/07/27/maine-senate-race","https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/22/congress/troy-jackson-raises-1-million-maine-senate-01007681","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/us/politics/collins-jackson-maine-senate-fundraising.html"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEME-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEME-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.5700000000000001,"yes_bid":0.56,"yes_ask":0.58,"last_price":0.58,"volume":4143725.22,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:25.480091Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEME-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEME-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEME-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in 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7th Congressional District, United States","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:06:45.138609+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Barrett","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Barrett.jpg"},{"name":"William Lawrence","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/William_Lawrence_20251023_083014.png"},{"name":"Shane Dedrick","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"William Lawrence","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.5572,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.5572,"Green":0.01,"Republican":0.4328},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The only public head-to-head poll, a Global Strategy Group survey released August 20, puts Lawrence ahead 49–47, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 60% in a near-even district. Barrett's incumbency and a large cash-on-hand advantage ($2.9M to $383K) keep the race close, leaving Democrats only modestly favored.","takeaway":"Democrat William Lawrence holds a narrow edge over Republican incumbent Tom Barrett in a closely divided mid-Michigan swing seat.","key_reasons":["The lone public poll (Global Strategy Group, released August 20) shows Lawrence leading Barrett 49–47, a narrow margin in a district decided by about a point in 2024.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win around 60% as of October 8, consistent with a national environment favoring Democrats in a competitive seat.","Incumbent Barrett holds a substantial resource edge — roughly $2.9M cash on hand versus Lawrence's $383K — which offsets the Democratic lean and keeps the contest tight."],"uncertainty":"With only one public poll, now roughly two months old, and no newer survey, the race turns on whether Barrett's incumbency and cash advantage outweigh Lawrence's narrow polling lead and the Democratic-leaning national environment.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:41.064567Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-william-lawrence-leads-tom-barrett-in-mi-07","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI7-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI7-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MI07123/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tom-barrett/donors","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/tom-barrett","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-barrett/us-congress/summary?mpid=1160224","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI07298/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/william-lawrence/donors","https://legalnews.com/Home/Articles?DataId=1628788","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pccc_2026_william_lawrence","https://michiganadvance.com/briefs/bernie-sanders-backs-lawrence-in-michigans-competitive-7th-district-democratic-primary/","https://www.wlns.com/your-local-election-hq/dedrick-michigan-congressional-race-controversy/","https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=shane+dedrick","https://www.thebulwark.com/p/did-maga-infiltrate-the-green-party-in-michigan"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI7-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI7-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for MI-7?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.605,"yes_bid":0.6,"yes_ask":0.61,"last_price":0.61,"volume":44423.99,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:57.080163Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI7-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI7-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI7-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for MI-7?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.405,"yes_bid":0.4,"yes_ask":0.41,"last_price":0.4,"volume":40445.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:57.204523Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI7-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.42,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.56,"Republican":0.435,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.53,"Republican":0.46,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"mi-governor-2026","title":"2026 Michigan Governor Election","office":"Governor of Michigan","jurisdiction":"Michigan","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T17:06:18.862858+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jocelyn Benson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jocelyn_BensonMI2.jpg"},{"name":"John James","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_James.jpg"},{"name":"Anthony Hudson","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Anthony_Hudson.jpeg"},{"name":"Donna Brandenburg","party":"U.S. Taxpayers","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Donna_Brandenburg.jpg"},{"name":"Douglas Campbell","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Douglas_Campbell_20240917_121844f.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jocelyn Benson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8844,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8844,"Green":0.002,"Libertarian":0.002,"Republican":0.1106,"U.S. Taxpayers":0.001},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Benson has led every recent survey of this open-seat race, with late September and early October polls showing a roughly 5-12 point advantage, and she has also led the fundraising race. Michigan remains a genuine battleground, so the lead is meaningful but not decisive.","takeaway":"Benson leads consistently across recent polling and is favored to keep this open Michigan seat in Democratic hands.","key_reasons":["Benson leads across a wide range of independent pollsters, including Marist (+12), Fox News (+9), Cygnal (+7), Mitchell Research (+7) and Siena College (+5) in late September and early October.","Benson holds a well-known statewide profile as Secretary of State and has led fundraising in the race, advantages that matter in an open-seat contest with no incumbent.","Minor-party nominees draw only about 2% each with roughly 9% undecided, leaving limited room for the margin to be overturned."],"uncertainty":"Michigan is a close battleground where polling has understated Republicans before, and the market reading is from mid-September, so the size of Benson's lead is far less certain than its direction.","based_on_poll_count":14,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T17:06:07.836393Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://upnorthlive.com/news/local/michigan-governor-poll-jocelyn-benson-john-james-election-2026-mitchell-research-el-sayed-rogers","https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/michigan","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/25/polls/times-siena-poll-mi-toplines.html","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-september-2026/","https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/09/fox_september-24-28-2026_michigan_topline_september-30-release.pdf","https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-michigan-2/","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-senate-battle-looms-michigan","https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-michigan.doi.10.26419-2fres.01065.010.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMI-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMI-26-R","https://www.facebook.com/WJBKFox2Detroit/posts/in-the-race-for-michigans-next-governor-the-most-recent-campaign-finance-reports/1229718609203374/","https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-05-12/jocelyn-benson-unveils-firewall-for-election-oversight-governor-run","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/06/03/whistleblower-complaint-claims-john-james-allegedly-used-official-funds-for-campaign-communications/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMI-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMI-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9205000000000001,"yes_bid":0.917,"yes_ask":0.924,"last_price":0.925,"volume":83440.13,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:51.647186Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMI-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMI-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMI-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0775,"yes_bid":0.072,"yes_ask":0.083,"last_price":0.084,"volume":172356.18,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:53.852315Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMI-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.11,"Green":0.004,"Libertarian":0.004,"U.S. Taxpayers":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.085,"Green":0.002,"Libertarian":0.002,"U.S. Taxpayers":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"mi-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 1st Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T15:34:37.633300+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jack Bergman","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jack_Bergman1.png"},{"name":"Callie Barr","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CallieBarr.png"},{"name":"LaVeta Davenport","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://lookaside.fbsbx.com/lookaside/crawler/instagram/levadeh/profile_pic.jpg"},{"name":"Arnett Satterla","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HL3bOA2akAA-im_.jpg"},{"name":"Doc Kovaly","party":"U.S. Taxpayers","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Liz Hakola","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Zebulon Featherly","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Zebulon_Featherly_20251006_090703.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jack Bergman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This R+11 district's strong Republican lean, combined with five-term incumbent Jack Bergman's dominant 74.7% primary win and roughly 2.3x fundraising advantage over Callie Barr, gives him an overwhelming structural edge. Barr lost this district as the 2024 Democratic nominee, and no public polling exists to suggest any shift.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T15:15:08.501855Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://wtpn.news/money-trail","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/callie-barr","https://www.citizen.org/article/military-industrial-complex-contributions-report/","https://ballotpedia.org/LaVeta_Davenport","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MI","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI01283/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI01275/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/liz-hakola"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-27T13:07:40.232458+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Moolenaar","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Moolenaar.jpg"},{"name":"Ben Ambrose","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Benjamin_Ambrose_20250717_014158.png"},{"name":"Charlotte Magoon","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Moolenaar","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar, first elected in 2014, won re-election with 65.1% in 2024 and holds a commanding fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat Ben Ambrose in a heavily Republican rural/exurban district. No public polling exists, but the district's strong GOP lean and unopposed primary reinforce a noncompetitive general election.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T13:34:05.292022Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=609969&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/john-moolenaar/us_congress/summary?mpid=1116109","https://www.kentcountymi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/November-3-2026-Candidates-and-Proposals-PDF","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI04126/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI02216/","https://ballotpedia.org/Charlotte_Magoon"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:39.339354+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hillary Scholten","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/HillaryScholten.jpg"},{"name":"Terri DeBoer","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5a47b32b2aeba541ba893ffc/1cf12716-2b37-49b3-91bd-ac5dd4f2d167/44.jpg"},{"name":"Joe Jock","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/544ae35b-2537-4432-91e2-6ff19ad8dd7b_20260823_014347_52526_1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hillary Scholten","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9347,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9347,"Green":0.005,"Republican":0.0603},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Scholten defends a Grand Rapids-area seat that has trended Democratic and that she carried by about 10 points in 2024, and she holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over DeBoer. With no candidate-level polling available, prediction-market pricing near 94% for Democrats reinforces the fundamentals-based read of a clear Scholten edge.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-trending Grand Rapids seat against Republican Terri DeBoer.","key_reasons":["Incumbency plus a district that has trended Democratic since redistricting, with Scholten's roughly 10-point 2024 win as the most recent benchmark.","Scholten's substantial resource advantage (~$2.33M raised, ~$1.36M cash on hand) versus DeBoer (~$552K raised, ~$361K cash) limits the challenger's ability to close the gap.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 94%, consistent with the seat's Democratic lean, though no public polling exists to corroborate."],"uncertainty":"No public candidate-level polling exists, so the forecast rests on incumbency, district lean, fundraising and thin-liquidity market pricing; DeBoer's regional television name recognition and DeVos-family backing are the main paths to an upset.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:35.413617Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI3-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MI03316/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/hillary-scholten/us_congress/summary?mpid=1107562","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/hillary-scholten/us_congress/industries?cycle=2024&mpid=1107562","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/nyman-turkish-pc/summary?id=D000107793","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI03198/","https://heartlandsignal.com/2026/05/04/nearly-half-of-michigan-gop-candidate-terri-deboers-early-funding-comes-from-devos-family/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/03/2026/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MI","https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Jock","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joe-jock/donors"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI3-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for MI-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9444999999999999,"yes_bid":0.944,"yes_ask":0.945,"last_price":0.944,"volume":5841.39,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:30:28.412056Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI3-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for MI-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.055999999999999994,"yes_bid":0.053,"yes_ask":0.059,"last_price":0.057,"volume":3146.03,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:56.833820Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.065,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"mi-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 4th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:05:04.321093+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bill Huizenga","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bill_Huizenga.jpg"},{"name":"Sean McCann","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sean_McCann.jpg"},{"name":"Shafina Barnett","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bill Huizenga","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.5651,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.4249,"Green":0.01,"Republican":0.5651},"margin_estimate":1.8,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"The district's Republican lean and Huizenga's incumbency and fundraising edge ($4.1M to $2.62M) give him a narrow advantage, even as recent polling shows a near-tie and McCann has consolidated labor support. Four head-to-head polls point in different directions, netting to a roughly even race with a slight Republican tilt.","takeaway":"Republicans hold a narrow edge in this competitive district, with Huizenga slightly favored to retain the seat.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals favor the GOP: a Cook-style R+3 lean and a six-point Trump win in 2024, plus Huizenga's long incumbency and $4.1M fundraising advantage over McCann's $2.62M.","Head-to-head polling is mixed and mostly sponsor-driven: GBAO shows McCann +1 (Sept 16) and +3 (June 1), while Ragnar Research Partners shows Huizenga +6 (March 23) and Public Policy Polling shows Huizenga +2 (Nov 20, 2025).","Prediction market pricing sits near a coin flip but narrowly favors Republicans (about 53.5% R to 47% D), consistent with a competitive race that still leans slightly Republican."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether McCann's labor-backed momentum and near-tie polling can overcome the district's Republican lean and Huizenga's incumbency, with sparse, largely sponsor-driven polling and a thin prediction market keeping the outcome genuinely uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T16:04:59.277589Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dccc.org/mccann-mentum-sean-mccann-leads-bill-huizenga-48-to-45-in-new-poll/","https://www.soulsandliberty.com/political-roundup-saturday-september-26-2026/","https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/CFA_MI-CD-4_Benchmark_Analysis_v1.0_260323.pdf","https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/likely-republican-seats-are-the-new-toss-ups/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI4-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI4-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MI02094/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/bill-huizenga/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1085217","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/bill-huizenga/us_congress/pacs?mpid=1085217","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5994598-huizenga-mccann-michigan-house-primary/amp/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI04204/","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/sean-a-mccann/contributors?cycle=2022&id=128271","https://seanmccannforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Shafina_Barnett","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/shafina-barnett"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI4-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI4-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for MI-4?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.47,"yes_bid":0.46,"yes_ask":0.48,"last_price":0.48,"volume":14116.7,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:56.956140Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI4-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI4-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI4-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for MI-4?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.535,"yes_bid":0.53,"yes_ask":0.54,"last_price":0.54,"volume":9659.68,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:30:35.096396Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI4-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.55,"Democratic":0.44,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.58,"Democratic":0.41,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"mi-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 5th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T02:42:14.046952+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tim Walberg","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tim_Walberg.jpg"},{"name":"Christian Vukasovich","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://cms.christian4michigan.com/assets/_o9a2231.jpg"},{"name":"James Bronke","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Bronke.jpg"},{"name":"Ronald Muszynski","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://gray-wilx-prod.gtv-cdn.com/resizer/v2/3F2HEWCG5RMMTOWJGMQFMA6RLI.jpg?auth=194681313077dcb5c464e507ac63a247e10ac44809ddbe35b8af5ea375f7a6c3&width=800&height=450&smart=true"},{"name":"Sharon Renier","party":"U.S. Taxpayers Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tim Walberg","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"This is a solidly Republican southern Michigan district where the long-serving GOP incumbent advanced unopposed, carried the seat with 65.7% in 2024, and holds a massive fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over a first-time Democratic challenger. The three minor-party candidates on the ballot are not positioned to alter the fundamental partisan balance.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T02:41:58.116479Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/michigan-5/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI05227/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/christian-vukasovich/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tim-walberg/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI07103/","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Tim+Walberg+just+disclosed+%24297.1K+of+new+fundraising","https://www.christian4michigan.com/get-involved","https://ballotpedia.org/James_Bronke","https://ballotpedia.org/Ronald_Muszynski","https://ballotpedia.org/Sharon_Renier"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 6th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T15:55:22.235404+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Debbie Dingell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ddingell.jpg"},{"name":"Heather Smiley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/HeatherSmiley2024.jpg"},{"name":"Clyde Shabazz","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ClydeShabazz24.jpg"},{"name":"Tim Teagan","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://michiganlp.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2025/07/Tim-Tegan-188x250.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Mickevicius","party":"U.S. Taxpayers Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Linda Rayburn","party":"Working Class Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LindaRayburn.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Debbie Dingell","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":27,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Debbie Dingell represents a heavily Democratic D+12 district anchored by Ann Arbor and won the 2024 version of this exact matchup 62%-35%, while Republican Heather Smiley reports no campaign receipts this cycle. With no public polling, the forecast rests on incumbency, district partisan lean, the 2024 result, and Dingell's dominant fundraising advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T15:55:06.527860Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/debbie-dingell/us_congress/summary?mpid=1124235","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00558213/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI12079/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/debbie-dingell/us_congress/individual_donors?cycle=2022&mpid=1124235","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MI","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/debbie-dingell/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI06154/","https://www.opensecrets.org/search?q=Clyde+Shabazz"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 8th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:46.393127+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kristen McDonald Rivet","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KristenMcDonaldRivet2025.jpg"},{"name":"Thomas J. Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Thomas_J_2026-07-29_180918.png"},{"name":"Jim Casha","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Casha.jpg"},{"name":"C. Mia Pettus","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/C_2026-08-18_174731.png"},{"name":"Kathy Goodwin","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KathyGoodwin.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kristen McDonald Rivet","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9254,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9254,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.003,"Republican":0.0647,"Working Class":0.004},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has already won this Trump-carried district once and holds a large fundraising advantage, while Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith suspended his campaign before winning the August 4 primary. With no public polling, market pricing near 93% for Democrats and the incumbent's funding and incumbency edge point to a clear Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"McDonald Rivet is strongly favored to hold this competitive seat, with a large funding edge and no public polling to suggest otherwise.","key_reasons":["Incumbent McDonald Rivet won this Trump-carried district in 2024 and holds a large fundraising advantage (roughly $4.25 million cash on hand) over Smith, who has no reported campaign funds.","Republican nominee Smith suspended his campaign in mid-July yet still won the August 4 primary, leaving an underfunded general-election challenge.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 93.5%, consistent with the incumbent's strong position despite the absence of public polling."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, the district backed Trump in 2024, and the Republican-side market is thinner and staler, so the size of the Democratic margin is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:37.867279Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI8-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI8-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=55492504&default=candidate","https://whofundsmyrep.com/state/mi","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/michigan-district-8-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI08218/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/kristen-mcdonald-rivet/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1332671","https://www.wcmu.org/local-regional-news/2026-08-05/candidate-who-suspended-campaign-defeats-trump-pick-in-michigan-primary","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/thomas-j-smith","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MI","https://pettusforcongress.org/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kathy_Goodwin"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI8-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI8-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9355,"yes_bid":0.931,"yes_ask":0.94,"last_price":0.931,"volume":3539.27,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:57.360625Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI8-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI8-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI8-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for MI-8?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.064,"yes_bid":0.058,"yes_ask":0.07,"last_price":0.06,"volume":5239.87,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:30:52.212771Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI8-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.065,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.001,"Working Class":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.003,"Working Class":0.004},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.15,"Green":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01,"Working Class":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"mi-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 9th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:22:23.175039+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lisa McClain","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lisa-McClain.PNG"},{"name":"Ray Pooley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/65ce28_915f7fd1632346909a6d65449835418f~mv2.webp/v1/fill/w_498,h_498,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/65ce28_915f7fd1632346909a6d65449835418f~mv2.webp"},{"name":"Destiny Clayton","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/_Destiny_Clayton_.PNG"},{"name":"Kevin Vayko","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kevin_Vayko.jpg"},{"name":"John Vlahos","party":"U.S. Taxpayers","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Jim Walkowicz","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Walkowicz_20240831_093707.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lisa McClain","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.01,"Other":0.01,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Lisa McClain, House Republican Conference chair, faces a first-time Democratic challenger who raised roughly $8,000 in a strongly Republican district (R+16) with no public polling and no competitive challenger funding. The partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising gap make a Democratic upset implausible.","takeaway":"Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to hold this safe R+16 seat behind incumbent Lisa McClain.","key_reasons":["House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain holds a strong incumbency and leadership advantage in MI-09","District is strongly Republican (R+16) with all major raters treating it as safe/solid GOP territory","Democrat Ray Pooley raised about $8,000 versus McClain's roughly $5.24M, and no public polling shows any competitiveness"],"uncertainty":"With no public polls and a seven-candidate minor-party/independent field, the precise margin is uncertain even if the winner is not.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T15:44:39.342150Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MI10287/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI09245/","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/lisa-mcclain-spacex-ipo-xai-investment-congress.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/huntington-bancshares/C00165589/candidate-recipients/2024","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=49944007&default=candidate","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ray-pooley","https://ballotpedia.org/Destiny_Clayton","https://ballotpedia.org/Kevin_Vayko","https://ballotpedia.org/John_Vlahos","https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Walkowicz","https://ballotpedia.org/Jasen_Cartwright","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6MI09211/1875344/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6MI09252/1936835/"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"mi-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 10th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:36.810747+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Christina Hines","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://michiganadvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Christina58of711_1746021284263-1024x808.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Bouchard","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://michiganadvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/616821447_122118693435115934_3975229254277276919_n-1024x683.jpg"},{"name":"Kwabena Nkromo","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Mike Saliba","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Slaiba_.jpg"},{"name":"Andrea Kirby","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AndreaKirby.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Christina Hines","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6085,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6085,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.002,"Republican":0.3854,"Working Class":0.001},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"In this open R+3 suburban Detroit seat, the only two recorded head-to-heads point to a tight race: a House Majority PAC poll conducted by Global Strategy Group ended 45-45 on the initial ballot (Hines 47-41 after biographies), and a January Public Policy Polling internal for the Hines campaign had her up 44-42. Democratic-leaning midterm context, Hines's \"Red to Blue\" backing and outside spending give her a slight edge, but Bouchard's Trump endorsement, name recognition and larger cash reserve keep the GOP well within reach.","takeaway":"Hines holds a narrow edge in a close open-seat toss-up, with thin polling and Bouchard's cash advantage keeping it competitive.","key_reasons":["Recorded polling shows a near-tie rather than a clear lead: Global Strategy Group's August survey was 45-45 initially (Hines 47-41 after biographies), and Public Policy Polling's January internal had Hines 44-42.","Market pricing as of early October puts a Democratic win near 66%, consistent with a narrow rather than comfortable advantage.","Open-seat contest in an R+3 district that has backed Trump but also elected Democrats statewide by double digits, with both parties targeting the seat and heavy outside spending on the Democratic side."],"uncertainty":"Only two head-to-head polls exist, one of them a January internal with no field dates or sample size, and Bouchard's roughly $976,000 cash-on-hand edge over Hines's roughly $158,000 means late spending could shift a race that is effectively tied at the ballot.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:27.435858Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-christina-hines-tied-with-michael-bouchard-junior-in-mi-10","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/01/30/your-weekly-michigan-political-brief-17/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI10-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMI10-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI10276/","https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/01/michigan-congressional-primaries-campaign-spending/91113431007/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI10359/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?q=Nkromo&cycle=2026&election_year=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?search=kirby&state=MI&cycle=2026&election_year=2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2026&state=MI&dist=10"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMI10-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMI10-26","title":"Will 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Michigan's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 11th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:04:57.051521+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jeremy Moss","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jeremy-Moss.PNG"},{"name":"Ethan Baker","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EthanBaker2026_2026-07-27_134652.jpeg"},{"name":"Ryan Teasdale","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Farid Ishac","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Farid_Ishac_20240812_034802.jpg"},{"name":"Anil Kumar","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Anil-Kumar.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jeremy Moss","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7999,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7999,"Green":0.007,"Independent":0.007,"Libertarian":0.0042,"Republican":0.1819},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Michigan's 11th is a Democratic-leaning Oakland County seat that has elected Democrats since 2019, and Democrat Jeremy Moss enters the open-seat general with a large fundraising advantage ($1.49M raised vs. $141,876 for Republican Ethan Baker as of July 15, 2026) plus State Senate leadership experience. Baker's Troy mayoralty, a Detroit News editorial endorsement, and independent Anil Kumar's continued ballot presence are partial offsets, but no public polling exists to confirm the size of the gap.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored in this open Oakland County seat, where Moss's fundraising edge and the district's Democratic lean outweigh Baker's local profile.","key_reasons":["The district is Democratic-leaning, having backed Joe Biden in 2020 and elected Democrats to the House since 2019, giving Moss a structural edge in an open-seat race.","Moss holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Baker (~$1.49M raised vs. ~$142K as of July 15, 2026) and brings State Senate President Pro Tempore experience, a stronger institutional profile than a first-time federal candidate.","Baker's moderate Troy-mayor profile and the September 29, 2026 Detroit News endorsement are offsets, and Kumar's early-October endorsement of Moss reduces third-party spoiler risk while he remains on the ballot."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of this matchup exists, so the forecast rests on district lean, fundraising and candidate profile; the race turns on whether Baker's local profile and newspaper backing can overcome Moss's resource and structural advantages, with Kumar still on the ballot.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:04:53.075216Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00904581/","https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?vendor=Jeremy+Moss+for+State+Senate","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jeremy-moss/campaign-finance","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/04/moss-secures-democratic-nomination-in-michigans-11th-congressional-district/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/mi/candidate/ethan-baker?cycle=2018-election-cycle","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI11290/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI10131/","https://home.mirs.news/post/kumar-switches-to-independent-to-run-in-11th-congressional-race"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.12,"Green":0.005,"Libertarian":0.003,"Independent":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Republican":0.13,"Independent":0.005,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.63,"Republican":0.34,"Green":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.24}},{"id":"mi-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 12th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T03:05:48.855440+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/200/Rashida-Tlaib.PNG"},{"name":"James Hooper","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Hooper.jpg"},{"name":"Brenda Sanders","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brenda_Sanders_2025.jpg"},{"name":"Marc Joseph Sosnowski","party":"U.S. Taxpayers","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marc_Sosnowski2024.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Walkowicz","party":"Working Class","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GaryWalkowicz1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rashida Tlaib","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Michigan's 12th is a heavily Democratic, safely Democratic seat where incumbent Rashida Tlaib won the August 4 primary with roughly 69% and carried the district with about 70% of the vote in 2024. No public polling exists, but district fundamentals, incumbency, and a weak, underfunded opposition field — including three minor-party nominees and a Republican who raised $775 — make a Democratic hold all but certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T03:05:34.183927Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan's_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/michigan-12/forecast/","https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=H2026MI12","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00668608/","https://www.fEC.gov/data/candidate/H2MI12198/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MI12198/","https://www.fEC.gov/data/candidate/H4MI12145/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MI12145/","https://ballotpedia.org/Marc_Joseph_Sosnowski","https://ballotpedia.org/Gary_Walkowicz"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Michigan's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Michigan's 13th Congressional District","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T15:46:51.923817+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Donavan McKinney","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Donavan_Mckinney.jpeg"},{"name":"Taras Nykoriak","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://michiganadvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Aarp.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Dardzinski","party":"U.S. Taxpayers Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher_Dardzinski.jpeg"},{"name":"Simone Coleman","party":"Working Class Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SimoneColeman.jpg"},{"name":"Raelyn Light","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Donavan McKinney","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.02,"Other":0.02},"margin_estimate":33,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This Detroit-area seat is overwhelmingly Democratic in partisan composition, and McKinney's 51.9% primary defeat of the two-term incumbent confirms strong Democratic organization and support. The Republican nominee has a prior federal conviction and no disclosed fundraising, while McKinney has raised roughly $1.37 million, making a Democratic hold near-certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T15:05:44.950700Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://mi-boe.entellitrak.com/etk-mi-boe-prod/page.request.do?page=page.miboePublicReport&electionType=GEN&electionYear=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI13254/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI13312/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/MI/13","https://menafn.com/1111496732/Michigan-House-Incumbent-Falls-In-Primary-After-2M-PAC-Boost","https://www.metrotimes.com/news/major-union-endorses-donavan-mckinney-for-congress-in-growing-wave-of-progressive-support-39764501/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/totals/?api_key=DEMO_KEY&election_year=2026&office=H&state=MI&district=13&per_page=100","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/michigan/federal/michigan-district-13/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=39849802&default=candidate","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MI","https://ballotpedia.org/Christopher_Dardzinski","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MI13337/","https://ballotpedia.org/Simone_Coleman","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/13/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MI13270/","https://ballotpedia.org/Shelby_Campbell","https://ballotpedia.org/Raelyn_Light"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mi-senate-2026","title":"2026 Michigan U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Michigan","state":"Michigan","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T19:10:45.055462+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Abdul El-Sayed","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Abdul_El-Sayed_2026.png"},{"name":"Mike Rogers","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Rogers.jpg"},{"name":"Douglas P. Marsh","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DouglasMarsh.jpg"},{"name":"Lydia Christensen","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lydia_Christensen_20250510_113631.png"},{"name":"Tim Long","party":"U.S. Taxpayers","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Timothy_Long_20240919_041404.jpg"},{"name":"Walter Kristy","party":"Natural Law","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Abdul El-Sayed","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.643,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.643,"Green":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.0001,"Natural Law":0.0001,"Republican":0.3566,"U.S. Taxpayers":0.0001},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Abdul El-Sayed has led in the recent statewide surveys from YouGov (+1), Fox News (+1), Marist (+7), The New York Times/Siena College (+5) and CNN/SSRS (+3), and high-volume prediction markets put Democrats near 66%. Mike Rogers's substantial outside backing and President Trump's endorsement keep this open-seat contest competitive, so the Democratic advantage is narrow rather than secure.","takeaway":"Democrats hold a narrow edge in Michigan's open Senate race, with El-Sayed leading recent polling and prediction markets.","key_reasons":["El-Sayed leads the most recent statewide polling, including YouGov (+1), Fox News (+1), Marist (+7), NYT/Siena (+5) and CNN/SSRS (+3), though the October Quantus Insights and YouGov margins are only about one point.","Well-traded prediction markets price a Democratic win near 66-67%, consistent with a modest but real edge in a purple state.","Rogers's large outside support and Trump's endorsement keep Republican odds meaningful in an open seat that could decide Senate control."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Rogers's heavy outside spending and party consolidation can overcome El-Sayed's small but consistent polling lead, with the newest surveys ranging from about one point in YouGov and Quantus Insights to 2 points in Trafalgar Group and 4.2 points in Mitchell Research, and minor-party support adding further uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":22,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T19:10:36.696867Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55703-new-polls-in-seven-states-show-tight-races-for-senate-and-governor-in-each-including-leads-for-talarico-brown-and-acton","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-michigan-voters-split-between-el-sayed-rogers","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-september-2026/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-mi-crosstabs.html","https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins","https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/michigan-senate-el-sayed-48-rogers-47-at-four-weeks-out","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/michigan","https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-voter-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMI-26-D","https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/","https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=6738E3056D284CD6D4733F5FB9C38684431D4884","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mi/","https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/wolverine-state-poll-el-sayed-leads-rogers-for-us-senate-in-michigan/","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_michigan_senate","https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-democrats-lead-republicans-coalesce-behind-rogers","https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/09/08/poll-which-us-senate-candidates-are-most-favorable-to-michigan-voters/","https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f14ae6fb2a20e01e9c6d608/t/6a6d26262f442f133d15fa49/1785538087149/MITCHELL+MI+Poll+Nov+Electio+Press+Release+7-31-2026+305PM_A.pdf","https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/08/29/EPIC-MRA-Michigan","https://x.com/MIRSnews/status/2083770042475516025?s=20","https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-michigan-2/","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-senate-battle-looms-michigan","https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-michigan.doi.10.26419-2fres.01065.010.pdf","https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/el-sayed-rogers-michigan-senate-polls-susquehanna-aarp","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMISENATE-26-AELS","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMISENATE-26-HSTE","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMISENATE-26-MMCM","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMISENATE-26-MROG","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMI-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MI00418/","https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/07/how-michigan-became-most-expensive-democratic-primary-ever-haley-stevens-abdul-el-sayed-aipac/","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/2/how-much-has-aipac-spent-against-michigans-abdul-el-sayed-and-why","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/abdul-el-sayed/us_congress/individual_donors?mpid=89725317","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/abdul-el-sayed/us_congress/pacs?mpid=89725317","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/pacs-galore-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-is-now-a-super-pac-battleground/","https://abdulforsenate.com/2026/07/el-sayed-campaign-raises-over-4-5-million-in-q2/","https://fundvoter.org/politicians/abdul-el-sayed","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44060467","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4MI00595/","https://michiganadvance.com/?p=110474","https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-04-06/mike-rogers-campaign-gets-45m-boost-in-outside-spending","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mike-rogers/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1092193","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/03/10/big-investors-banking-industry-figures-gave-millions-to-mike-rogers-over-decades-in-politics/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/contributors?cid=N00009668&cycle=CAREER&newMem=N&type=I","https://www.thebulwark.com/p/did-maga-infiltrate-the-green-party-in-michigan","https://www.wgvu.org/election/us-senate/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MI00442/","https://www.lydialynnchristensen.com/","https://ustpm.org/candidates","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan,_2026"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXMISENATE-26-AELS","event_ticker":"KXMISENATE-26","title":"Who 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statewide name recognition in a state that leans Democratic in statewide contests. Demuth's affordability and fraud-focused message has narrowed the race since the summer, so the advantage is clear but not commanding.","takeaway":"Klobuchar is clearly favored in this open-seat race, though tightening recent polling keeps a Demuth upset within reach.","key_reasons":["Klobuchar leads all public general-election polling, with recent surveys showing roughly +7 to +10 (KSTP/SurveyUSA 47-40, TIPP 50-40) and one tighter reading at +2 (co/efficient 47-45).","Klobuchar holds a large financial and profile edge: about $7.0 million raised versus roughly $360,000 for Demuth, plus long statewide recognition as a three-term U.S. senator.","Minnesota's Democratic lean in statewide races, reinforced by prediction markets that price Democrats near 95% to hold the open seat."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Demuth's affordability and fraud message keeps closing a gap that one September survey put at just 2 points, and the open seat plus limited recent polling leaves real room for movement.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T13:19:00.542233Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-governor-senate-races-tightening-days-before-early-voting-starts-in-minnesota/","https://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/governor/general/2026/minnesota/demuth-vs-klobuchar","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mn/","https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-early-frontrunners-in-governor-and-senate-races-ag-a-toss-up/","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/minnesota-2026-poll-democrats-lead-gop-as-voters-cite-threats-to-democracy/","https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-klobuchar-leads-all-gop-candidates-for-governor/601850018","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMN-26-D","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/minnesota/demuth-vs-klobuchar","https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-klobuchar-leads-all-gop-candidates-by-double-digits/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMN-26-R","https://cfb.mn.gov/reports-and-data/viewers/campaign-finance/candidates/19369/2026/","https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/04/15/amy-klobuchar-has-raised-4-8-million-in-62-day-old-campaign-for-minnesota-governor/","https://www.inforum.com/news/minnesota/klobuchar-maintains-substantial-cash-advantage-in-governors-race","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/amy-klobuchar/summary?cid=N00027500","https://www.transparencyusa.org/mn/candidate/lisa-demuth-pcc","https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/07/01/who-is-the-billionaire-supporting-lisa-demuths-campaign-for-minnesota-governor/","https://alphanews.org/lisa-demuth-leads-gop-primary-opponents-in-campaign-cash/","https://cfb.mn.gov/reports-and-data/viewers/campaign-finance/candidates/19287/2026/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=45362531&default=candidate"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMN-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMN-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Minnesota","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.949,"yes_bid":0.945,"yes_ask":0.953,"last_price":0.957,"volume":202116.25,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:57.082587Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMN-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYMN-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYMN-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Minnesota","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.052500000000000005,"yes_bid":0.047,"yes_ask":0.058,"last_price":0.058,"volume":264115.2,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:48:58.488639Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYMN-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.63,"Republican":0.37},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.27}},{"id":"mn-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 1st Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:16:21.241770+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Finstad","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brad-Finstad.PNG"},{"name":"Jake Johnson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jake_Johnson_20250619_010030.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Finstad","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.2,"Republican":0.8},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The district's Republican fundamentals—Trump carried it by 12 points in 2024 and Finstad won reelection by 17—combine with incumbency and two polls showing Finstad ahead by 3 to 10 points to give the GOP a clear edge. Johnson's fundraising parity and grassroots support keep the race competitive, but not enough to flip the seat.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold Minnesota's 1st District, though Johnson's fundraising keeps the race competitive.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals strongly favor Republicans: Trump carried it by 12 points in 2024 and Finstad won reelection by 17.","Both available polls show Finstad ahead (44-41 in February, 52-42 in March).","Johnson's fundraising parity and DCCC-backed grassroots campaign temper the GOP edge but do not overcome it."],"uncertainty":"Both polls are months old and are the only two available, and Johnson's fundraising parity and the district's shift toward competitiveness could narrow the margin by November.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:16:17.686923Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.postbulletin.com/news/local/new-poll-fundraising-shows-jake-johnson-within-striking-distance-of-brad-finstad","https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/minnesota/district-1","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MN01223/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/brad-finstad/us_congress/pacs?cycle=2022&mpid=1150739","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/MN/1","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN01190/","https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2026/08/democrat-jake-johnson-a-teacher-tries-to-solve-the-difficult-math-in-a-red-district/","https://www.postbulletin.com/news/local/dfler-jake-johnson-significantly-outpaces-gop-congressman-brad-finstad-in-1st-quarter-fundraising"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.8,"Democratic":0.2},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.76,"Democratic":0.24},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"mn-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T23:02:53.687015+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Matt Little","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Matt_Little.JPG"},{"name":"Eric Pratt","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Pratt.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Matt Little","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Republican":0.14},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Both general-election polls of the current field show Democrat Matt Little ahead — Impact Research by 12 points in mid-September and Harper Polling by 5 in June — and prediction-market pricing puts Democratic odds near 92% in this open south-suburban seat. The district's purple but Democratic-leaning recent history and the absence of an incumbent keep the race competitive rather than safe.","takeaway":"Democrat Matt Little is favored to win this open south-suburban Minnesota seat, with Republicans still competitive.","key_reasons":["Both general-election polls of the current roster show Little leading: Impact Research (ended Sept. 13) had him ahead 52-40, and Harper Polling (ended June 21) had him ahead 45-40.","Prediction-market pricing puts Democratic odds near 92%, consistent with a clear but not overwhelming Democratic edge in this open seat.","No incumbent is running in this purple south-suburban district, and its recent Democratic-leaning federal results give Little the stronger starting position."],"uncertainty":"Polling is limited to two surveys, the most recent market pricing is nearly a month old and thinly traded, and Little's progressive profile in a purple suburban district leaves room for a Republican upset.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T23:02:48.231873Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.facebook.com/MattMLittle/posts/new-poll-just-droppedand-were-beating-eric-pratt-by-double-digits-team-little-52/1519400703328063/","https://alphanews.org/exclusive-new-poll-shows-republican-eric-pratt-in-close-race-with-dfl-congressional-candidates/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMN2-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMN2-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02230/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00903807/?cycle=2026","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=40606595&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/minnesota/federal/minnesota-district-02/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02230/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02263/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00912824/?cycle=2026","https://www.lrl.mn.gov/legdb/fulldetail?id=15386","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN02263/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMN2-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMN2-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for MN-2?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9175,"yes_bid":0.913,"yes_ask":0.922,"last_price":0.942,"volume":5262.13,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:31:20.809616Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMN2-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMN2-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMN2-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for MN-2?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0815,"yes_bid":0.064,"yes_ask":0.099,"last_price":0.098,"volume":1340.08,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:31:21.848605Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMN2-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"mn-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T00:43:35.290234+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kelly Morrison","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a5/Representative_Kelly_Morrison_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Tyler Bass","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tyler_Bass_20260212_044527.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kelly Morrison","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Kelly Morrison won this suburban Twin Cities seat with 58.4% in 2024 and holds a large fundraising edge, while Republican Tyler Bass has not reported raising funds and is a first-time nominee. With no public polling, the forecast rests on structural factors — incumbency, district lean, and candidate resources — that point to a comfortable Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T00:43:16.710384Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://electionresults.sos.mn.gov/Results/Index?ersElectionId=200&scenario=USRepresentative","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN03170/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00938886/","https://candidates.sos.mn.gov/CandidateFilingResults.aspx?county=0&municipality=0&schooldistrict=0&hospitaldistrict=0&level=1&party=0&federal=True&judicial=False&executive=True&senate=True&representative=True&title=&office=0&candidateid=0","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MN03118/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/kelly-morrison","https://www.legistorm.com/person/bio/313415/Kelly_Louise_Morrison.html","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/minnesota-district-3-race-winner-by-party/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/?api_key=DEMO_KEY&cycle=2026&state=MN&district=03&office=H&per_page=20"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mn-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 4th Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:15:33.981560+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Betty McCollum","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/2019_Official_Portrait-min.jpg"},{"name":"Paul Wikstrom","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Wikstrom-Photo-high-res_20260627_020636_42311_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Betty McCollum","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Minnesota's 4th is a heavily Democratic St. Paul-area seat that McCollum has represented since 2001, and she won the DFL primary with 85.7%. Republican Paul Wikstrom is a lightly funded challenger in a district with a strong Democratic partisan baseline, making a GOP upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:15:17.536997Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://electionresults.sos.mn.gov/Results/Index?ersElectionId=200&scenario=USRepresentative","https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN04293/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MN04049/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/betty-mccollum/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1110318","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/betty-mccollum/us_congress/organizations?cycle=2024&mpid=1110318","https://www.startribune.com/betty-mccollum-became-minnesotas-pipeline-to-the-pentagon-the-defense-industry-took-notice/601868066","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/paul-wikstrom/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mn-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 5th Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T16:38:40.993703+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ilhan Omar","party":"Democratic-Farmer-Labor","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IlhanPortrait3-scaled-1_20260713_231335_45570_1.jpeg"},{"name":"John Nagel","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Screenshot-2026-08-19-at-15_38_13_20260819_203840_32904_1.png"},{"name":"DeVelle Jackson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Campaign-Headshot-Ballotpedia_20260814_043120_51189_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ilhan Omar","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Minnesota's 5th is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the country, and incumbent Ilhan Omar is heavily favored after winning the August 11 primary with 80.7% of the vote. Her Republican and Independent opponents have minimal fundraising and no public polling suggests any competitive path.","takeaway":"Omar is overwhelmingly favored to win a fifth term in this deeply Democratic district.","key_reasons":["Deep Democratic partisan lean of the district","Incumbent Ilhan Omar's dominant 80.7% primary win and incumbency advantage","Weak general-election opposition with minimal campaign resources"],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, but the district's strong Democratic lean and Omar's dominant primary performance make the outcome highly predictable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T01:30:27.673403Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota's_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MN05239/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ilhan-omar/us_congress/elections?mpid=1071715","https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_bd5e1221-9cba-4857-86b7-4318ae769e93.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN05357/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/john-nagel","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN05373/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00846790/"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"mn-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 6th Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T12:47:27.713802+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Emmer","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Emmer.png"},{"name":"Doug Chapin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Doug_Chapin_20250903_021045.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom Emmer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent House Majority Whip Tom Emmer holds a dominant position in a district that has been reliably Republican for over two decades, backed by a roughly $9.8M fundraising advantage and a 50-40 lead in the lone public poll. The district's strong partisan lean and Emmer's incumbency and leadership role make a Democratic upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T12:46:57.429599Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.stcloudlive.com/news/local/poll-commissioned-by-chapin-campaign-shows-emmer-leading-by-10-points-in-6th-district","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tom-emmer/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MN06087/","https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2023/08/emmers-gop-leadership-job-requires-he-raise-a-lot-of-political-money-and-he-does/","https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/12/08/tom-emmer-crypto-house-gop/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN06215/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/MN/6","https://www.instagram.com/p/DXu3TX2gTnM/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mn-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 7th Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:14:01.868159+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michelle Fischbach","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michelle-Fischbach.PNG"},{"name":"Erik Osberg","party":"Democratic-Farmer-Labor","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Erik_Osberg_20251126_051317.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michelle Fischbach","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Minnesota's 7th is the most conservative district in the state, with an R+18 PVI and a 36-point Trump margin in 2024, giving the Republican nominee a commanding structural advantage. Incumbent Michelle Fischbach, unopposed in the primary and seeking a fourth term, faces a first-time DFL challenger in a district with no public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T15:51:46.995986Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0MN07091/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN07312/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mn-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Minnesota's 8th Congressional District","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:04:28.951952+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pete Stauber","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/pete_stauber.jpg"},{"name":"Trina Swanson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Trina_Swanson_20260224_044335.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pete Stauber","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.14},"margin_estimate":11,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Pete Stauber enters the general election with a well-established advantage in a northeastern Minnesota district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles, plus a large fundraising and cash-on-hand edge over Democrat Trina Swanson. With no public head-to-head polling logged, the forecast rests on incumbency, district lean, and campaign resources rather than measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Stauber is clearly favored to hold Minnesota's 8th District, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Stauber is the sitting incumbent in a district that has leaned Republican in recent federal cycles, giving him a durable baseline advantage.","Stauber's fundraising (roughly $2.0 million raised, about $1.2 million cash on hand) far outpaces Swanson's roughly $326,000, a substantial resource gap three weeks out.","No public polling of the Stauber-Swanson matchup exists, so there is no direct evidence of a shift toward the Democratic nominee despite a potentially more favorable midterm environment."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether a favorable national midterm environment and Swanson's small-dollar, district-based campaign can overcome Stauber's incumbency and roughly 6-to-1 fundraising advantage, and with zero public polling the true margin is unmeasured.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:04:22.361652Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/pete-stauber/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MN08043/","https://www.kaxe.org/elections/2026-08-07/mn-dfl-dollars-coalesce-behind-swanson-gulbranson-leads-in-small-donations","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MN08179/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"mn-senate-2026","title":"2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Minnesota","state":"Minnesota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T00:14:21.115434+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan","party":"Democratic-Farmer-Labor","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Peggy_Flanagan.JPG"},{"name":"Michele Tafoya","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/5d6207-20251226-tafoya03-2000-4192588103_20260601_115533_29114_1.jpg"},{"name":"Rebecca Whiting","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RebeccaWhiting.jpg"},{"name":"Marisa Simonetti","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MarisaSimonetti.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.5824,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.5824,"Democratic-Farmer-Labor":0.0001,"Independent":0.0055,"Libertarian":0.0055,"Republican":0.4065},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Minnesota's durable Democratic lean, Flanagan's statewide profile and roughly $6.5M fundraising base give the DFL a modest structural edge, but late-September polling has collapsed to a near-tie (InsiderAdvantage 46-45, SurveyUSA 42-42, TIPP 44-42). The open seat and Tafoya's late tightening keep this competitive rather than comfortable.","takeaway":"Flanagan holds a narrow but real edge in a Minnesota Senate race that has tightened to a near-tie.","key_reasons":["Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and has not voted Republican for president since 1972, giving the DFL a persistent structural advantage in a statewide race.","Flanagan leads the most recent candidate polling, but by margins at or inside the margin of error (InsiderAdvantage 46-45, TIPP 44-42, co/efficient 43-42, SurveyUSA 42-42), so the race is effectively tied late.","Flanagan's fundraising (~$6.5M, overwhelmingly small-dollar and no corporate PAC money) and her statewide profile as Lieutenant Governor give her a resource and name-recognition edge over first-time candidate Tafoya."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Flanagan's structural and financial edge holds against a sharp late tightening, with the Oct. 16 debate and the stale (Sept. 15) prediction market the main unknowns.","based_on_poll_count":8,"generated_at":"2026-10-04T21:07:28.293140Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-survey-u-s-senate-minnesota-contest-a-one-point-race-flanagan-46-tafoya-45/","https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-minnesota/","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mn/","https://www.quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota","https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-governor-senate-races-tightening-days-before-early-voting-starts-in-minnesota/","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/minnesota-2026-poll-democrats-lead-gop-as-voters-cite-threats-to-democracy/","https://www.newsweek.com/minnesota-senate-race-polls-midterms-12306628","https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-early-frontrunners-in-governor-and-senate-races-ag-a-toss-up/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMN-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMN-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00897751/","https://peggyflanagan.com/category/uncategorized/","https://minnesotareformer.com/2026/07/31/state-of-the-race-for-u-s-senate/","https://alphanews.org/michele-tafoya-angie-craig-each-raise-2-6-million-in-q2-as-primary-opponents-lag-behind/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/08/chart-of-the-week-craig-tafoya-lead-money-chase-ahead-of-minnesotas-senate-primary","https://www.minnpost.com/dc-memo/2025/07/d-c-memo-dem-candidates-craig-flanagan-top-gop-rivals-in-senate-campaign-fundraising/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=34783492&default=candidate","https://peggyflanagan.com/ahead-of-no-kings-protests-inclusive-democracy-caucus-chairs-endorse-flanagan-for-u-s-senate-copy/","https://minnesotareformer.com/briefs/craig-more-than-doubles-flanagans-q3-fundraising/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MN00556/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michele-tafoya/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=MNS2","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MN00572/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MN00481/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMN-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEMN-26","title":"Will Democratic (DFL)s win the Senate race in Minnesota?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.855,"yes_bid":0.85,"yes_ask":0.86,"last_price":0.86,"volume":408207.84,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:33.899573Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMN-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMN-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEMN-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.135,"yes_bid":0.13,"yes_ask":0.14,"last_price":0.14,"volume":952565.29,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:34.908634Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMN-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic-Farmer-Labor":0.73,"Republican":0.26,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.37,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.53,"Republican":0.45,"Libertarian":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.62}},{"id":"mo-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 1st Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:38:50.953641+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Wesley Bell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Wesley_Bell%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Paul Berry III","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PaulBerryMO_2026-07-10_155910.jpg"},{"name":"Tom Schmitz","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom-Schmitz-2026-profile_20260728_054722_31965_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Wesley Bell","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"MO-01 is a heavily Democratic St. Louis-based district (D+29), and incumbent Wesley Bell enters the general election with a decisive primary win (59.2%–36.9%) and a large fundraising edge over under-resourced Republican and Libertarian challengers. The general election is noncompetitive; the primary was the decisive contest.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:23:50.006773Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483406","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MO01134/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/wesley-bell","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/missouri/federal/missouri-district-01/candidates?cycle=2026"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mo-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T18:03:13.628849+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ann Wagner","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ann_Wagner.jpg"},{"name":"Frederick Wellman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Frederick_Wellman2026.jpg"},{"name":"Brandon Daugherty","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/bdaugherty.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ann Wagner","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.75,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.75,"Democratic":0.2407,"Libertarian":0.0093},"margin_estimate":5.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Ann Wagner's incumbency, a roughly $4.2 million cash-on-hand advantage over Wellman's ~$1.16 million raised, and a district redrawn to add Republican-leaning rural counties give her the edge in a seat her party has held. Two 2026 head-to-head polls show narrow Wagner leads — 43-42 in mid-September and 44-41 in late May — so the race stays competitive rather than safe.","takeaway":"Wagner is favored to keep this Republican-held St. Louis suburban seat, though close polling keeps a Wellman upset plausible.","key_reasons":["Wagner is the incumbent seeking her eighth term and holds a large resource advantage, reporting about $4.23 million cash on hand versus roughly $1.16 million raised by Wellman.","The 2025 redistricting added more rural, Republican-leaning counties to the 2nd District, reinforcing the seat's Republican lean.","Head-to-head polling is close but shows Wagner ahead in both surveys: Remington Research Group had her up 43-42 on September 14, and FM3 Research had her up 44-41 on May 26."],"uncertainty":"Only two public head-to-head polls exist, the newest showing a one-point Wagner lead, and the district's shifting suburban voting patterns leave the final margin genuinely uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T18:03:09.878065Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.firstalert4.com/2026/09/26/poll-shows-wagner-statistical-tie-with-democratic-challenger/","https://www.wellmanformo.com/s/WELLMAN-FOR-MO-POLLING-MEMO.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO02102/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ann-wagner/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1047186","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MO02343/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/frederick-wellman/donors","https://votevets.org/press-releases/votevets-endorses-fred-wellman-for-missouris-second-congressional-district"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.34,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.72,"Democratic":0.26,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.17}},{"id":"mo-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:25:53.021687+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bob Onder","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bob_Onder.jpg"},{"name":"Bethany Mann","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bethany_Mann.jpg"},{"name":"Jim Higgins","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jim_Higgins.jpg"},{"name":"Theodis Brown Sr.","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TheoBrown.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bob Onder","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.035,"Libertarian":0.008,"Independent":0.007},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Missouri's 3rd District carries a strong Republican lean, and first-term incumbent Bob Onder won his primary decisively (66.9%) while holding a roughly $900,000 fundraising advantage over Democrat Bethany Mann. District fundamentals and incumbency overwhelmingly favor a Republican hold despite the mid-decade map litigation.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T01:31:22.401242Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MO03221/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO03167/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MO","https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_4_Republican_primary)","https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-congressional-incumbents-flush-with-cash-heading-into-primary-election/","https://insideelections.com/person/bethany-mann/","https://secure.actblue.com/directory/MO/candidate","https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO02078/","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mo-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 4th Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T13:03:21.416835+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Alford","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Alford.png"},{"name":"Jordan Herrera","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jordan_Herrera_2025.jpg"},{"name":"Thomas Holbrook","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Thomas_Holbrook.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Alford","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.88},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Missouri's 4th District remains strongly Republican-leaning, and incumbent Mark Alford enters the general election with a decisive primary win, a wide fundraising advantage over Democrat Jordan Herrera, and presidential backing. No public polling has been logged in this race, and the redrawn map's Kansas City-area component leaves the district's exact partisan balance untested.","takeaway":"Alford is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though the redrawn map adds uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican lean persists even after the 2025 map added part of Kansas City, and the seat is currently Republican-held.","Alford won the August 4, 2026 Republican primary with more than 77% and reported roughly $1.39 million in receipts through July 15, 2026, versus about $41,657 for Herrera.","Alford is the incumbent with a presidential endorsement and a 95% 2025 presidential-support score, while Herrera and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook have no legislative record and limited resources."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this race, and the newly redrawn map's Kansas City-area component leaves the district's exact partisan balance untested.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T13:03:17.758637Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO04207/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MO05254/","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.055,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"mo-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 5th Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:02.838405+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Emanuel Cleaver","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Emanuel_Cleaver.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Brattin","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick-Brattin.jpg"},{"name":"Randy Langkraehr","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/670364/670364.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Emanuel Cleaver","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7999,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7999,"Libertarian":0.0181,"Republican":0.182},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The Supreme Court's September 25, 2026 ruling keeps the Kansas City-centered 2022 map in place for November 3, preserving a district where Cleaver has won comfortably and holds a large cash advantage over Brattin. With no public polling, the Democratic edge rests on district fundamentals, incumbency and fundraising, with well-traded markets pricing Democrats near 96%.","takeaway":"Cleaver is favored to keep this Kansas City seat for Democrats, though no public polling exists.","key_reasons":["The September 25, 2026 Supreme Court ruling requires Missouri to use its 2022 congressional map for the November 3 general election, keeping MO-05 a Kansas City-centered district rather than the more conservative-leaning 2025 boundaries.","Cleaver's long incumbency since 2005 and roughly $1.1 million cash on hand (July 15, 2026 pre-primary filing) far outpace Brattin's roughly $222,510, even though Brattin carries Trump's endorsement.","Prediction markets with substantial volume price a Democratic win near 96% (Kalshi, October 8, 2026), consistent with the district's fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the Cleaver-Brattin matchup exists, so the estimate leans on district fundamentals, fundraising and market pricing, and the separate Proposition A vote on the 2025 map adds an unusual wrinkle to an otherwise settled-seeming race.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:05:51.704988Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEMO5-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEMO5-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00026790&cycle=2026","https://www.ksmu.org/news/2026-07-31/missouri-congressional-incumbents-flush-with-cash-heading-into-primary-election","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MO05234/","https://theconservativeledger.com/races/mo-5/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Missouri","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/07/21/uncertain-congressional-map-hangs-over-missouris-crowded-5th-district-gop-primary/","https://ballotpedia.org/Randy_Langkraehr"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEMO5-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEMO5-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for MO-05?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.963,"yes_bid":0.961,"yes_ask":0.965,"last_price":0.965,"volume":61544.36,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T18:40:51.595970Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEMO5-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEMO5-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEMO5-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for MO-05?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.028,"yes_bid":0.022,"yes_ask":0.034,"last_price":0.022,"volume":97799.73,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T18:40:52.658617Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEMO5-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.045,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.975,"Republican":0.023,"Libertarian":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":23,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.025}},{"id":"mo-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 6th Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:05:53.209702+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Smead","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JoshSmead2025.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Stigall","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Stigall_20260522_195647_1.png"},{"name":"Andy Maidment","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andy_Maidment_Final_Headshot.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Stigall","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.0418,"Libertarian":0.0084},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Missouri's 6th is a strongly Republican, largely rural open seat, and GOP nominee Chris Stigall carries a large resource and institutional edge over Democrat Josh Smead, with roughly $599K raised versus Smead's roughly $72K and the endorsement of retiring Rep. Sam Graves. No public polling of the general election has been logged in this race.","takeaway":"Republicans are heavily favored in Missouri's 6th District open seat, with Chris Stigall holding a wide advantage over Josh Smead.","key_reasons":["The district is strongly Republican and largely rural, giving the GOP nominee a large structural advantage in an open-seat race.","Stigall holds a wide fundraising lead (about $599K to Smead's about $72K), roughly $974K in supportive outside spending, and the endorsement of retiring Rep. Sam Graves.","No public polling exists, and Libertarian Andy Maidment reports no federal fundraising and drew only about 2.2% here in 2022, limiting third-party impact."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market data exists for this race, leaving no direct head-to-head evidence on the contest.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:05:48.794147Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://s1.sos.mo.gov/candidatesonweb/displaycandidatesplacement.aspx","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MO06260/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/josh-smead/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MO06310/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/chris-stigall/donors","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/07/16/missouri-ballot-measure-campaigns-dominate-fundraising-ad-spending-for-primary/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO06269/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MO"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":30,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.015,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":34,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"mo-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 7th Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:35:03.991704+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Eric Burlison","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric-Burlison.jpg"},{"name":"Missi Hesketh","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Missy_Hekseth_26.jpg"},{"name":"Kevin Craig","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kevin_Craig.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Eric Burlison","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Missouri's 7th is one of the most Republican districts in the nation (R+21 PVI), and incumbent Eric Burlison is an entrenched, well-funded incumbent who took 73.8% in the primary and roughly 71% in 2024. Neither the Democratic nor Libertarian challenger has the resources or district profile to be competitive here.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:34:48.085363Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionCandidates/2026GeneralElectionCertifiedCandidates.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MO07143/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/eric-burlison/summary","https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-congressional-incumbents-flush-with-cash-heading-into-primary-election/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MO","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MO07156/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/missi-hesketh/donors","https://www.missiformo.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MO07107/","http://iamnotanarchist.us/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mo-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Missouri's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Missouri's 8th Congressional District","state":"Missouri","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T19:48:20.371566+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jason Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7a/Rep_Jason_Smith_-_2024.jpeg"},{"name":"Chris Reichard","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://content.campaignpartner.net/images/cdn_queue/150810/781aa0e9726d4ad1a4a78878c13887a0.jpeg"},{"name":"Rebecca Sharpe Lombard","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jul42022127AM_122386209_20220329_192710.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jason Smith","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.015,"Libertarian":0.005},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Jason Smith, the House Ways and Means chairman who took 86.0% in the primary, holds a commanding structural edge in a district that has voted Republican for decades. The Democratic challenger's campaign is essentially unfunded (~$6K raised versus Smith's ~$5.26M), and no polling or market signal suggests any competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T19:48:05.459038Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionCandidates/2026GeneralElectionCertifiedCandidates.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MO08162/","https://readsludge.com/2025/05/01/top-corporate-pac-money-recipient-leads-gop-tax-overhaul/","https://rollcall.com/2022/10/13/firebrand-missourian-shaes-up-ways-and-means-race/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/christopher-reichard/donors","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/MO","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MO/08/2026/","https://secure.actblue.com/director/MO","https://ballotpedia.org/Rebecca_Sharpe_Lombard"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ms-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Mississippi's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Mississippi's 1st Congressional District","state":"Mississippi","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T18:07:11.004059+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Trent Kelly","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Trent_Kelly.jpg"},{"name":"Cliff Johnson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Johnny Baucom","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Trent Kelly","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Trent Kelly represents a strongly Republican northeastern Mississippi district and won re-election with 69.8% in 2024. His ~$864,000 cash on hand dwarfs challenger Cliff Johnson's ~$150,000, and Libertarian Johnny Baucom has no FEC filings, reinforcing Kelly's commanding position.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T06:21:39.897901Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/07/17/incumbents-maintain-midterm-election-fundraising-edge/","https://ballotpedia.org/Johnny_Baucom_(Mississippi)","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/trent-kelly/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS01131/","https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-whos-fueling-the-trent-kelly-2026-race-and-why-it-matters","https://msindy.org/p/democrats-colom-johnson-fundraising","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS01313/","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/08/26/johnson-baucom-hope-to-unseath-heavily-favored-incumbent-kelly-in-mississippis-1st-congressional-district/","https://www.enterprise-tocsin.com/incumbents-maintain-midterm-election-fundraising-edge-6a626e91648c2"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ms-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Mississippi","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:51:06.157325+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bennie Thompson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bennie_Thompson.jpg"},{"name":"Ron Eller","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ron_Eller.jpeg"},{"name":"Bennie Foster","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bennie_Foster_20250613_031947.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bennie Thompson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Bennie Thompson holds an overwhelming structural advantage in this heavily Democratic, African American-majority district, having beaten the same Republican challenger 62%-38% in 2024. His $1.45M cash-on-hand edge versus Eller's ~$36K and a divided opposition (two challengers, one with no reported FEC activity) make an upset highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:35:17.574167Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/07/17/incumbents-maintain-midterm-election-fundraising-edge/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MS02068/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MS02203/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS02188/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/mississippi-2/","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/entergy-corp/C00363879/expenditures/2018","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Bennie+G.+Thompson+just+disclosed+%24162.2K+of+new+fundraising","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ron-eller"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ms-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Mississippi","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:37:23.095490+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Guest","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Guest.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Chiaradio","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Chiaradio.jpg"},{"name":"Erik Kiehle","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Erik_Kiehle_2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Guest","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Mississippi's 3rd is a strongly Republican seat (R+14 PVI) where four-term incumbent Michael Guest, endorsed by President Trump and holding roughly $942K cash on hand versus about $23K for his Democratic rival, faces a first-time Democratic challenger and a Libertarian who has not filed FEC finance reports. District fundamentals make a Republican hold overwhelming despite the total absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:36:44.303356Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/07/17/incumbents-maintain-midterm-election-fundraising-edge/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS03228/","https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michael-guest/donors","https://legis1.com/news/inside-the-money-race-for-mississippis-3rd-congressional-district","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/04/21/mississippi-congressional-incumbents-extend-their-money-lead-over-midterm-challengers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8MS03125/","https://msindy.org/p/democrats-colom-johnson-fundraising","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michael-chiaradio","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS03236/","https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/03/03/how-much-money-have-mississippi-us-congress-candidates-raised/88840599007/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ms-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Mississippi's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Mississippi's 4th Congressional District","state":"Mississippi","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:29:32.391749+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Ezell","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Rep._Mike_Ezell_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Jeffrey Hulum III","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Rep._Jeffrey_Hulum_III_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Carl Boyanton","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Carl4congress_profile_pic.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Ezell","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.015,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Mississippi's 4th is a reliably Republican Gulf Coast seat, and incumbent Mike Ezell combines a strong incumbency advantage with a commanding fundraising and cash-on-hand lead over both challengers. With no public polling, the district's entrenched GOP lean and the resource gap make an upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:29:16.370047Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2MS04258/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/mississippi-4/forecast/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-ezell/summary","https://fundvoter.org/state/MS","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/biloxi-freezing-processing/summary?all=2024&id=D000090372","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/07/17/incumbents-maintain-midterm-election-fundraising-edge/","https://msindy.org/p/democrats-colom-johnson-fundraising","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS04242/","https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/04/21/mississippi-congressional-incumbents-extend-their-money-lead-over-midterm-challengers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MS04259/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ms-senate-2026","title":"2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Mississippi","state":"Mississippi","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T23:03:13.171045+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Cindy Hyde-Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/480px-Cindy_Hyde-Smith_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Scott Colom","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ScottColom2025.jpeg"},{"name":"Ty Pinkins","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ty-Headshot_20260507_001045_24236.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Cindy Hyde-Smith","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.09,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.9},"margin_estimate":10.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Mississippi's strongly Republican baseline and Hyde-Smith's incumbency and roughly $2.5 million cash-on-hand edge over Colom's ~$850,000 make her a clear favorite. Three head-to-head polls show her ahead by 3 points each (47-44, 48-45, 47-44), and prediction markets price a Republican win near 90%.","takeaway":"Hyde-Smith is a clear favorite to hold Mississippi's Senate seat, backed by the state's Republican lean, incumbency, and a large cash advantage.","key_reasons":["Mississippi is a deeply Republican state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1982, and Hyde-Smith is the incumbent seeking a second full term.","Three head-to-head polls show Hyde-Smith leading Colom by 3 points each: 47-44 (Impact Research, ended July 12), 48-45 (SPLC Action Fund/Impact Research, ended April 20), and 47-44 (Impact Research, ended April 12).","Hyde-Smith holds a large cash-on-hand advantage (~$2.5M vs ~$850K), while independent Ty Pinkins reported about $630 on hand and is unlikely to alter the outcome."],"uncertainty":"The available polls are limited and show a narrower margin than the state's partisan baseline implies, and Mississippi's majority-vote requirement leaves a runoff possible, so the race turns on whether Hyde-Smith's structural advantages outweigh Colom's closer-than-usual standing.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T23:03:09.338339Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.splcactionfund.org/news/new-poll-of-likely-voters-shows-mississippi-senate-race-tightening-as-voters-continue-to-sour-on-sen-cindy-hyde-smith/","https://www.instagram.com/scott_colom/p/Db_KDSxki_K/","https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/mississippi/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-R","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/will-mississippi-send-a-black-democrat-to-the-us-senate-scott-colom-says-dont-count-him-out","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4MS00187/","https://msindy.org/p/ty-pinkins-responds-spoiler-accusationss"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMS-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEMS-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.09,"yes_bid":0.089,"yes_ask":0.091,"last_price":0.089,"volume":184804.18,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:20.664697Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMS-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEMS-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9155,"yes_bid":0.912,"yes_ask":0.919,"last_price":0.919,"volume":97762.2,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:38.362060Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.09,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.08,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.1,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"mt-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Montana's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Montana's 1st Congressional District, Montana","state":"Montana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:07:15.828842+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Aaron Flint","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/portraits/aaron-flint.webp"},{"name":"Sam Forstag","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Samuel_Forstag_26_2026-04-28_162717.jpeg"},{"name":"Nick Sheedy","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/portraits/nick-sheedy.webp"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Aaron Flint","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.65,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.3325,"Libertarian":0.0175},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Montana's 1st District is an open seat in a Republican-leaning electorate, and Aaron Flint holds a slim lead in the newest survey while prediction markets price Republicans near two-thirds. Sam Forstag is a well-funded challenger keeping the race close, so the Republican advantage is real but modest.","takeaway":"Republicans are modestly favored in Montana's open 1st District, with Aaron Flint holding a narrow polling and structural edge over Sam Forstag.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican-leaning fundamentals and President Trump's endorsement of Flint give the GOP a structural edge in this open-seat race.","Recent polling is essentially tied: Flint +0.5 in the Sept. 19-24 American Pulse Research and Polling survey, Forstag +2 in the Sept. 10 Public Policy Polling survey, and Flint +1 in the Sept. 7 Rutgers/Eagleton-Montana Free Press survey.","Prediction markets price a Republican win around 67%, consistent with a modest rather than decisive Republican advantage."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Flint's structural advantages outweigh a well-funded Forstag campaign, with small-sample polls showing a near-tie and Nick Sheedy's roughly 5% support adding further uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:07:07.441232Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.montanarightnow.com/elections/aaron-flint-sam-forstag-nearly-tied-for-montana-congressional-district-1/article_96a2f7e1-334a-46c7-9a92-84ccc4c44171.html","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/montana-1/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/14/flint-forstag-in-dead-heat-for-house-seat/","https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/general/montana-1","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMT1-26-R","https://www.mtpr.org/montana-news/2026-10-09/western-district-house-candidates-say-affordability-is-their-top-concern","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMT1-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MT01152/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00941575/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/04/17/republican-independent-candidates-outraise-democrats-in-federal-races/","https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-06-21/ai-giants-are-funding-ad-wars-in-races-across-country","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/montana/federal/montana-district-01/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MT01152/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/aaron-flint/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/07/16/campaign-finance-filings-show-democrats-except-sam-forstag-far-behind/","https://flatheadbeacon.com/2026/07/29/forstag-shores-up-support-from-national-democrats-in-western-district-bid/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MT01137/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00932822/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MT01137/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/sam-forstag/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Forstag","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/nick-sheedy/","https://flatheadbeacon.com/newsletters/the-daily-roundup-federal-fundraising-figures-in-western-house-senate-races-show-mixed-bag-for-democrats/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMT1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEMT1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.315,"yes_bid":0.31,"yes_ask":0.32,"last_price":0.32,"volume":165591.95,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:32:05.627259Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEMT1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEMT1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEMT1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for 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Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Montana's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Montana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T00:31:34.679881+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Troy_Downing_20241222_050648.jpg"},{"name":"Brian Miller","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://montanafreepress.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/BrianMillerBlue.png"},{"name":"Patrick McCracken","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/943054/943054.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Eisenhauer","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Eisenhauer_20251220_123359.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Troy Downing","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.97,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"MT-02 is a heavily Republican eastern Montana seat, and incumbent Troy Downing enters the general with a dominant fundraising advantage (~$2.1M raised) against a fragmented field led by a lightly funded Democratic nominee and a self-funded independent. No public head-to-head polling exists, but the district's strong partisan composition and Downing's incumbency make a Republican hold extremely likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:19:28.997480Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Montana%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/troy-downing/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/brian-j-miller/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/michael-d-eisenhauer/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/05/28/mtfp-eagleton-poll-2026/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/03/06/voters-lukewarm-on-personal-appeal-of-montana-electeds/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00855288/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/troy-downing/summary","https://dailymontanan.com/2026/04/17/montana-federal-races-see-more-than-4-million-in-fundraising-led-by-independent-bodnar-for-senate/","https://dailymontanan.com/2026/07/16/independent-bodnar-again-leads-all-all-candidates-in-latest-fundraising-reports/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/07/16/campaign-finance-filings-show-democrats-except-sam-forstag-far-behind/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/patrick-mccracken/","https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/campaign-finance-filings-show-democrats-except-sam-forstag-far-behind/article_4036fd4b-2878-4ae1-9119-99aa9190c0f2.html","https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/independents-out-fundraising-democrats-in-montana-congressional-races/article_667f29f1-c632-46a0-9aa7-ae69cffc1832.html"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"mt-senate-2026","title":"2026 Montana U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Montana","state":"Montana","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:01:15.948836+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kurt Alme","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/fu_scd4d3djdzh8w2c_20260526_174524_38150_1.png"},{"name":"Alani Bankhead","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alani_Bankhead_20260106_102822.png"},{"name":"Seth Bodnar","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Seth-Bodnar-Picture_20260601_180823_38181_1.jpg"},{"name":"Kyle Austin","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/portraits/kyle-austin.webp"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kurt Alme","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.07,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.9},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Alme leads every public poll in a four-way race where the non-Republican vote is split between Bankhead and Bodnar, and Montana's federal electorate leans strongly Republican. Prediction markets price a Republican win near 90%, consistent with Alme's Trump/Daines endorsements and cash advantage.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold Montana's open Senate seat, with Alme leading a divided field.","key_reasons":["Alme leads every public poll (36-49%) while the non-Republican vote is split between Bankhead and Bodnar, structurally favoring the GOP in a four-way race.","Montana's strong Republican federal lean, plus Trump and Daines endorsements and Alme's fundraising/cash edge, reinforce the Republican ceiling.","Prediction markets price a Republican win at roughly 90%, consistent with polling and state fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"Bodnar is a credible, well-funded independent with cross-party endorsements, but Bankhead's refusal to drop out blocks any late consolidation of the anti-Alme vote.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T22:16:35.843472Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://forwardmontana.org/full-press-release-august-6th-u-s-senate-poll/","https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/why-kurt-alme-will-win-the-montana-senate-race","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMT-26-R","https://insideelections.com/montana-senate-new-poll-confirms-gop-edge/","https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/poll-four-way-race-benefits-alme-voting-split-in-race-against-only-bodnar","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMT-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MT00295/","https://dailymontanan.com/2026/04/17/montana-federal-races-see-more-than-4-million-in-fundraising-led-by-independent-bodnar-for-senate/","https://dailymontanan.com/2026/07/16/independent-bodnar-again-leads-all-all-candidates-in-latest-fundraising-reports/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/kurt-alme/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MT00253/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/07/06/mystery-pac-that-boosted-bankhead-exits-senate-race-leaving-a-financial-void/","https://montanafreepress.org/2026/06/12/alani-bankheads-bankroll-bind/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00941708/","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/news/end-citizens-united-endorses-independent-seth-bodnar-for-us-senate-in-montana","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6MT00261/","https://projects.montanafreepress.org/election-guide-2026/candidates/kyle-austin/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEMT-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEMT-26","title":"Will 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Montana?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.904,"yes_bid":0.903,"yes_ask":0.905,"last_price":0.902,"volume":223178.83,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:43.037347Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMT-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Independent":0.07,"Democratic":0.02,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Independent":0.07,"Democratic":0.008,"Libertarian":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.07,"Independent":0.04,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"nc-house-01-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 1st Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-11T02:04:16.601098+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Don Davis","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Don_Davis.jpg"},{"name":"Laurie Buckhout","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LaurieBuckhout.png"},{"name":"Tom Bailey","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Bailey.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.5455,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.5455,"Libertarian":0.0101,"Republican":0.4444},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Late polling is genuinely split — co/efficient (Oct. 6–8) puts Buckhout ahead by 1, while GQR (Oct. 4), Neighborhood Research and Media (Oct. 2) and GBAO (Sept. 11) put Davis ahead by 7 to 10 — leaving the rematch without a clear favorite. Davis's incumbency and $3.57M cash-on-hand advantage are offset by a district redrawn in late 2025 to favor Republicans and a midterm environment that typically works against the party holding the White House.","takeaway":"North Carolina's 1st District is a toss-up, with Don Davis holding a narrow edge over Laurie Buckhout in a redrawn, closely divided seat.","key_reasons":["Late polling is split: co/efficient (Oct. 6–8) shows Buckhout +1, while GQR (Oct. 4), Neighborhood Research and Media (Oct. 2) and GBAO (Sept. 11) show Davis ahead by 7 to 10 points.","Davis carries incumbency and a cash edge ($3.57M on hand versus Buckhout's $1.83M with $3.5M in committee debt), but the late-2025 redistricting shifted the seat toward Republicans and Buckhout has heavy outside-group backing.","Prediction market pricing gives Democrats roughly 65% (Kalshi, as of Sept. 15), consistent with a narrow Democratic edge rather than a decisive lead."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the redrawn district's Republican tilt and Buckhout's outside-group support outweigh Davis's incumbency and cash advantage, with the newest survey showing a 1-point race, 13% undecided, and a prediction-market reading that is now nearly a month old.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-11T02:04:07.749521Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001a1-2120-d058-adf3-2b6891500000","https://ncpoliticalnews.com/news/democratic-sponsored-poll-davis-buckhout-nc1/","https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-the-house-battleground","https://www.witn.com/2026/09/15/poll-don-davis-leading-laurie-buckhout-by-7-points-first-district-race/","https://dailyhaymaker.com/new-poll-don-davis-on-top-in-three-way-race-for-nc-01/","https://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusive-nrcc-polling-puts-buckhout-davis-in-dead-heat/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/north-carolina-1/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENC1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENC1-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NC02287/","https://www.carolinajournal.com/davis-buckhout-each-raise-about-1m-in-q2/","https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/house-dem-don-davis-touts-his-eastern-north-carolina-bona-fides-but-nearly-all-his-individual-campaign-donations-come-from-outside-the-state/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/don-davis/industries?cid=N00049636&cycle=CAREER&type=I","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC01137/","https://rollcall.com/2026/02/02/house-fundraising-fourth-quarter-midterm-elections/","https://cawp.rutgers.edu/node/151764","https://legis1.com/news/how-money-and-maps-are-shaping-one-of-2026s-most-consequential-house-races-the-fight-for-don-davis-nc-1","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/top-self-funders","https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2024&vendor=Laurie+Buckhout+for+Congress","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NC13075/","https://ballotpedia.org/Tom_Bailey_(North_Carolina)"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENC1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENC1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NC-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.645,"yes_bid":0.64,"yes_ask":0.65,"last_price":0.65,"volume":72055.85,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:32:14.298256Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENC1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENC1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENC1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NC-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.355,"yes_bid":0.35,"yes_ask":0.36,"last_price":0.35,"volume":48519.06,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:32:15.533637Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENC1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.38},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.53,"Republican":0.46,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.54,"Republican":0.44,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"nc-house-02-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:32:12.692711+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Deborah K. Ross","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Deborah-Ross.jpg"},{"name":"Eugene F. Douglass","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eugene_Douglass2.jpg"},{"name":"Matthew F. Laszacs","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://matt4nc.us/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2022/05/Matthew-Laszacs.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Deborah K. Ross","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Deborah Ross represents a D+17 district she carried by roughly two-thirds margins in 2022 and 2024, and the October 2025 redistricting left NC-02's boundaries unchanged. She faces underfunded challengers with no FEC filings on record, making the outcome direction near-certain even though zero public polling limits precision on the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:31:46.792804Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/2026_general_candidate_list_by_contest_federal_and_state.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NC02125/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_933ec24e-f4c1-45c0-b78e-c09c21b8591e.html","https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/deborah-ross/summary","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://indyweek.com/news/deborah-ross-wont-take-aipac-money-in-2026/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NC","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC02135/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00846030/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC02205/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-03-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:03:15.326780+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gregory Murphy","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg-Murphy.jpg"},{"name":"Raymond Smith Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RaymondSmithJr2024.jpg"},{"name":"Daniel Cavender","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DanielCavender2024.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gregory Murphy","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.85,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.14,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.85},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Murphy enters the general election as the incumbent in a district that retains a Republican lean even after the October 2025 redraw, and he holds a large resource advantage over Smith. The only available general-election poll, a Tulchin Research survey sponsored by House Majority PAC that ended July 27, showed Murphy ahead 44–41 with no reported sample size, a narrow lead that still leaves the incumbent ahead.","takeaway":"Murphy is favored to keep this Republican-leaning eastern North Carolina seat, though redistricting has made it more competitive.","key_reasons":["Incumbency plus a district that still leans Republican after the October 2025 redistricting, even as Democrats target the seat","Murphy's fundraising and spending advantage over Smith's roughly $223,000 in receipts through June 2026","The lone general-election poll (Tulchin Research, ended July 27) shows Murphy leading 44–41, with the Libertarian candidate unfunded and marginal"],"uncertainty":"Polling is limited to a single survey with no reported sample size, so the true size of Murphy's lead and how much the redrawn district has shifted remain uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:03:11.392802Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-memo-polling-shows-path-to-a-larger-democratic-majority-exists-with-necessary-funding","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NC03172/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Greg+Murphy+Supports+Passage+of+H.R.+7148+Providing+Funding+for+Community+and+Defense+Projects+in+NC-03","https://healthcarefreedomfund.org/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NC/03/2026/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NC/3","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC03229/","https://raymondsmithfornc.com/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/north-carolina-district-3-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NC"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.85,"Democratic":0.14,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"nc-house-04-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 4th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:29:58.608253+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Valerie Foushee","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Valerie-Foushee.jpg"},{"name":"Mahesh Ganorkar","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mahesh_Ganorkar.jpeg"},{"name":"Guy Meilleur","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GuyMeilleur.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Valerie Foushee","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Libertarian":0.005},"margin_estimate":27,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"North Carolina's 4th District is a heavily Democratic seat (D+23 PVI) anchored by Durham, Chapel Hill, and Cary, and incumbent Valerie Foushee holds a decisive structural and financial edge over Republican Mahesh Ganorkar and Libertarian Guy Meilleur. With no public polling, the district's partisan lean and incumbency make a Democratic hold the overwhelming expectation.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:29:48.027626Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_7d0dadbe-316c-42e9-86ba-be693180bb87.html","https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/2026_general_candidate_list_by_contest_federal_and_state.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data.candidate/H2NC06114/","https://ncnewsline.com/2026/02/27/outsiders-spent-nearly-4-2m-in-nc-04-primary-most-expensive-in-state-history/","https://dukechronicle.com/article/duke-university-north-carolina-congressional-race-district-4-valerie-foushee-aipac-funds-nida-allam-20260227","https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Democratic_primary)","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/04/us/politics/aipac-israel-funds-spending.html","https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3803235/war-israel-gaza-aipac-backed-house-democrats-reject-2026-cash/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC02150/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NC06106/","https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NC","https://www.fec.gov/data.candidate/H4NC04149/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-05-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 5th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:05:08.307893+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Virginia Foxx","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Virginia_Foxx.jpg"},{"name":"Chuck Hubbard","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ChuckHubbard2024.jpeg"},{"name":"Robert Luffman","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Robert_Luffman_20251221_014714.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Virginia Foxx","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.0429,"Libertarian":0.0072},"margin_estimate":21,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The 5th District's strong Republican lean and Virginia Foxx's incumbency since 2005 make a Democratic or Libertarian win a long shot, and her roughly $3.37 million in cash on hand dwarfs Chuck Hubbard's fundraising and Robert Luffman's self-funded effort. No public polling of the general election has been logged.","takeaway":"Foxx is heavily favored to keep this Republican-leaning seat, with a large cash advantage and no polling showing a competitive race.","key_reasons":["The district is strongly Republican-leaning and Foxx has held the seat since 2005, winning recent races by wide margins.","Foxx reported about $3.37 million in cash on hand, far outpacing Hubbard's roughly $395,000 in receipts and Luffman's low-budget, self-funded campaign.","No public polling of the general election has been logged, and the district's Republican lean and Foxx's incumbency are the dominant factors in the race."],"uncertainty":"The absence of any public polling, Foxx's age at 83, and a Libertarian candidate on the ballot are the main sources of uncertainty, though none appears large enough to threaten the Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:05:03.954302Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/2026_general_candidate_list_by_contest_federal_and_state.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC05146/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/virginia-foxx/us_congress/independent_expenditures?cycle=2022&mpid=1055435","https://myfox8.com/news/politics/nc/how-much-money-have-federal-candidates-in-the-triad-raised-so-far/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC05294/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NC","https://insideelections.com/person/chuck-hubbard/","https://www.lpnc.org/luffman","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.opensecrets.org/","https://www.followthemoney.org/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":23,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"nc-house-06-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 6th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:30:31.641077+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Addison McDowell","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AddisonMcDowell.png"},{"name":"Cyril Jefferson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cyril_Jefferson2025.jpeg"},{"name":"Joshua Hager","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/rm3.photos.prod.readmedia.com/students/5380765/medium/PicsArt_03-12-11.27.59.jpg?1590197761"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Addison McDowell","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn district carries a strong Republican lean (R+9 PVI), and first-term incumbent Addison McDowell faces a Democratic challenger who won a four-way primary with 39.2% plus an independent with no disclosed fundraising or platform. With no public polling, the structural partisan advantage, incumbency, and roughly 6-to-1 fundraising edge point to a comfortable Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:30:18.200741Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483731","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC06177/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC06164/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/addison-mcdowell/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/addison-mcdowell/summary","https://myfox8.com/news/politics/nc/how-much-money-have-federal-candidates-in-the-triad-raised-so-far/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/cyril-jefferson/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC06149/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6NC06149/1892211/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-07-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 7th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T01:24:43.500992+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"David Rouzer","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Rouzer_official_congressional_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Kimberly Hardy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kimberly_Hardy.jpg"},{"name":"Maad Abu-Ghazalah","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Maad_AbuGhazalah_20260219_050017.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Henry","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Henry.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"David Rouzer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Rouzer is a well-funded seven-term incumbent in a Republican-leaning district (R+7), and even the lone public survey—an internal PPP poll commissioned by the Hardy campaign—shows him ahead by 6-8 points. With the leading challenger having lost two prior state House bids and minor candidates fragmenting the non-Republican vote, a Republican hold is highly probable.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:24:33.257554Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o6PQC-Ya_2KaUtR3MF31t-OCNRQ5t_AB/view?usp=drive_link","https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/2026_general_candidate_list_by_contest_federal_and_state.pdf","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NC07096/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NC","https://ncnewsline.com/briefs/fact-checking-the-allegations-lodged-about-hog-farms-at-the-national-ag-leaders-roundtable/","https://borderbelt.org/where-the-candidates-stand-on-key-issues-in-ncs-7th-and-8th-congressional-districts/","https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/24/business-election-donations-republicans-00191072","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC07196/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kimberly-hardy","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC07204/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC07212/","https://www.mikehenrync.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-08-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 8th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T10:02:47.902430+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Harris","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Harris.png"},{"name":"Colby Watson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Colby_Watson_20251010_125440.jpg"},{"name":"Bo Whitehead","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Harris","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.0825,"Green":0.0075},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Mark Harris holds a decisive resource advantage — roughly $1.02 million raised and $517,853 cash on hand versus Colby Watson's $39,569 raised and $2,343 on hand — in a district with a Republican-leaning suburban-rural mix. With no public polling logged, the case rests on incumbency, fundraising, and the district's partisan baseline rather than on measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Harris is strongly favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, with Watson's limited resources leaving little path to an upset.","key_reasons":["Harris's fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage is overwhelming: about $1.02 million raised and $517,853 on hand, against Watson's $39,569 raised and $2,343 on hand, and no significant Green Party fundraising.","Harris is the sitting incumbent in a Republican-held district whose Charlotte-suburb and rural mix has favored Republicans, and he faces two first-time candidates with no prior elected experience.","No public polling or prediction-market signal has surfaced to suggest a competitive general election, so nothing in the available data contradicts the district's Republican baseline."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising rather than measured vote preference, and the outcome turns on whether Harris's resource and incumbency advantages hold through November.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T10:02:43.883453Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC08066/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mark-harris?mpid=1157413","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.trackaipac.com/states/northcarolina","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC08202/","https://ballotpedia.org/Bo_Whitehead"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.045,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.055,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"nc-house-09-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 9th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:44:02.477404+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Richard Hudson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Richard_Hudson.jpg"},{"name":"Richard Ojeda","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Richard_Ojeda_26.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Richard Hudson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.95,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Seven-term Republican incumbent Richard Hudson, chairman of the NRCC and fifth-ranking House Republican, holds a district redrawn under a Republican-drawn map that leans solidly Republican, and he holds a clear fundraising and institutional edge over Democrat Richard Ojeda ($3.2M to $2.2M, with heavy party-committee support). With no public polling, the assessment rests on district partisanship and incumbency, which point to a decisive Hudson win despite the DCCC listing NC-09 as \"Districts in Play\" in early August.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:43:44.564533Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00504522/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NC08185/","https://myfox8.com/news/politics/nc/how-much-money-have-federal-candidates-in-the-triad-raised-so-far/","https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/richard-hudson-ojeda-fundraising-north-carolina","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC09218/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-10-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 10th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:04:26.073256+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pat Harrigan","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Pat_Harrigan.jpg"},{"name":"Ashley Bell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AshleyBellNorthCarolina2025jpeg.jpeg"},{"name":"Steven Feldman","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/StevenFeldman2024.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pat Harrigan","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9499,"Democratic":0.0456,"Libertarian":0.0045},"margin_estimate":17.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Pat Harrigan leads Ashley Bell 52-37 in the only available head-to-head poll and holds a roughly $1 million to $84,000 fundraising advantage, in a district redrawn in October 2025 to remain strongly Republican. Bell, a first-time candidate, has far less money and name recognition, leaving her with a narrow path even in a Democratic-leaning national cycle.","takeaway":"Harrigan is strongly favored to hold this Republican-leaning district, with a wide polling and fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Harrigan led Bell 52-37 in the Ragnar Research poll ended 2026-03-20, a 15-point margin.","Harrigan's roughly $1 million in receipts dwarfs Bell's $84,000 and Feldman's $36,000, giving him a large resource advantage.","The district was redrawn in October 2025 and remains strongly Republican-favoring, and Harrigan is the incumbent."],"uncertainty":"Only one early, modest-sized poll (n=400, March 2026) is available, so the size of Harrigan's lead is uncertain and a Democratic-leaning national cycle could narrow it.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:04:21.960074Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/north-carolina/district-10","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NC13243/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/pat-harrigan/industries?cid=N00050144&cycle=2024","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Harrigan-H001101/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC10174/","https://www.ashleybellforcongress.com/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article/6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00866608/","https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2024/tables/congressional/ConCand7_2024_21m.pdf","https://www.stevefeldmanforcongress.com/","https://lp.org/candidate/steven-richard-feldman/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.985,"Democratic":0.014,"Libertarian":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.025}},{"id":"nc-house-11-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 11th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:58.973837+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jamie Ager","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JamieAger2025.png"},{"name":"Jennifer Balkcom","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JenniferBalkcom2026.jpg"},{"name":"Travis Groo","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Travis_Groo_26.jpg.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jamie Ager","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.63,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.63,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.36},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Democrat Jamie Ager holds a narrow edge in this open Western North Carolina seat: he leads the only available general-election poll 47–44, has raised more than $3 million with DCCC \"Red to Blue\" backing, and faces a Republican nominee, state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, who entered on August 10 with no federal fundraising reported. The district's Republican lean and President Trump's endorsement of Balkcom keep the race close, leaving Ager a modest rather than decisive favorite.","takeaway":"Ager holds a narrow edge in this open, Republican-leaning seat, buoyed by a fundraising advantage and a 3-point poll lead.","key_reasons":["Ager leads the only available general-election poll, 47% to 44%, a 3-point edge in a race both parties are contesting.","Ager has raised more than $3 million with DCCC 'Red to Blue' support, while Balkcom was selected as the replacement nominee on August 10 and shows no federal fundraising, leaving her a compressed campaign and a large resource gap.","The seat's Republican lean and President Trump's endorsement of Balkcom are meaningful counterweights that keep the contest competitive rather than a clear Democratic advantage."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Ager's fundraising and organizational edge outweighs the district's Republican lean and Trump's endorsement of Balkcom, with only one poll of registered voters available and a mid-September prediction market that may not reflect the current race.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:53.196968Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/north-carolina-us-house-11-general-election","https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/trump-nc-congress-us-house-buckhout-balkcom-davis-ager-race-midterm-september-2026/","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00914119/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jamie-ager/donors","https://www.hendersonvillelightning.com/four-seasons-politics/16062-ager-taps-national-network-of-donors-for-campaign-haul.html","https://www.carolinajournal.com/ager-tops-edwards-in-2nd-quarter-fundraising/","https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina's_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jennifer-balkcom/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/travis-groo/donors"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM","event_ticker":"KXHOUSENC11-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.775,"yes_bid":0.77,"yes_ask":0.78,"last_price":0.77,"volume":99536.32,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:32:54.272709Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSENC11-26-DEM","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP","event_ticker":"KXHOUSENC11-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NC-11?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.225,"yes_bid":0.22,"yes_ask":0.23,"last_price":0.24,"volume":126323.87,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:32:55.378370Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSENC11-26-GOP","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.63,"Republican":0.36,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.31,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.56,"Republican":0.42,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"nc-house-12-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 12th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:41:21.636161+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Alma Adams","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alma_Adams_official_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Jack Codiga","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jack_Codiga_26.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Alma Adams","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Alma Adams represents a heavily Democratic Charlotte-based district and holds a commanding fundraising edge (~$370K to ~$29K) over first-time Republican challenger Jack Codiga. With no public polling available, the forecast rests on the district's strong partisan lean, incumbency, and challenger inexperience.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:41:09.017943Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC12100/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC12113/","https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/north-carolina-politics/ncs-12th-congressional-district-race-features-rep-alma-adams-hopeful-challengers/275-f7456ff9-ceb7-42bb-bee7-ab5e54b45c42","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/alma-adams/summary?cid=N00035451&cycle=2026","https://insideelections.com/person/alma-shealey-adams/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-nc-12/compare/alma-adams-vs-jack-codiga","https://insideelections.com/person/john-jack-codiga/","https://www.codigaforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Jack_Codiga"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-house-13-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 13th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T13:03:36.642245+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Knott","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Rep._Brad_Knott_official_photo%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Paul Barringer","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Paul_Barringer_26.jpg"},{"name":"Steven Swinton","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.fayobserver.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/03/19/NTFO/89230507007-fob-hutson-02.jpg?crop=2666,2667,x0,y0&width=48&height=48&format=pjpg&auto=webp"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Knott","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.94},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"North Carolina's 13th is a strongly Republican-leaning district, and first-term incumbent Brad Knott holds a fundraising and institutional-endorsement advantage over Democrat Paul Barringer, whose campaign is largely self-funded. The certified general-election field also includes Libertarian Steven Swinton.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold this seat, with incumbent Brad Knott benefiting from a strongly Republican-leaning district and a fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["The redrawn district's Johnston County core and northern Wake/exurban territory give Republicans a durable structural advantage.","First-term incumbent Brad Knott holds a fundraising edge (~$1.34M) with PAC and committee support and institutional endorsements, while Barringer's ~$1.02M is largely self-funded.","Knott's incumbency and committee assignments in a strongly Republican-leaning district leave Barringer needing a large swing among Johnston County and exurban Wake voters."],"uncertainty":"No public polling is available for this contest, and a Libertarian on the ballot plus Barringer's moderate profile leave modest uncertainty about the size of the Republican margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T13:03:33.433832Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/2026_general_candidate_list_by_contest_federal_and_state.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC13116/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/brad-knott","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brad-knott/summary","https://ncnewsline.com/briefs/two-gop-congressional-primaries-in-nc-likely-headed-to-runoffs/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00855361/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/directory","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC13228/","https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-barringer-4458315","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/paul-barringer","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00906057/","https://ballotpedia.org/Steven_Swinton","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_North_Carolina_Senate_election","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.05,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.07,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"nc-house-14-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Carolina's 14th Congressional District","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:42:49.936513+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Timothy K. Moore","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tim_Moore.jpg"},{"name":"Lakesha Womack","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lakesha_Womack_20251227_074642.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Timothy K. Moore","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"A single March 2026 poll shows Moore leading Womack 48%-40%, and the district is strongly Republican-leaning with Moore holding incumbency and a major fundraising edge. That combination makes a Republican hold the clear most-likely outcome, though the evidence rests on one poll without a published sample size.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:42:33.357346Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/tim-moore/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NC14015/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00856005/","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Moore-M001236/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NC14069/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nc-senate-2026","title":"2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"North Carolina, United States","state":"North Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T08:11:07.681893+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Roy Cooper","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Roy_Cooper.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Whatley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Whatley_20251119_123603.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Dublin","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MichaelDublin.png"},{"name":"Shannon Bray","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ShannonBray.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Roy Cooper","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.002,"Republican":0.065},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Cooper has led every public poll of the general election for months, with recent surveys showing roughly a 5-15 point advantage and an average near +8. His two-term governorship, near-universal name recognition, and roughly 3-to-1 fundraising edge over Whatley reinforce that lead, while reported GOP uncertainty about continued investment adds a further headwind for the Republican.","takeaway":"Roy Cooper holds a clear, durable lead over Michael Whatley in North Carolina's open-seat Senate race, though the state's Republican lean leaves a modest tail risk.","key_reasons":["Cooper leads in every recent public poll, with margins ranging from about 5 to 15 points and an average near +8.","Cooper's fundraising (~$35M) dwarfs Whatley's (~$11M), and his two terms as governor give him strong name recognition and a favorable profile in an open-seat race.","National Republican groups have signaled uncertainty about continued investment in the state, and prediction markets price Democrats near 97%."],"uncertainty":"North Carolina remains a competitive, Republican-leaning state, so polling error, late movement, or a shift in national GOP investment could narrow a race that some September surveys already showed tightening.","based_on_poll_count":18,"generated_at":"2026-10-06T14:05:04.425669Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20260915.pdf","https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/HPUPoll127MemoA-1.pdf","https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_north_carolina_senate","https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/roy-cooper-leads-michael-whatley-by-five-in-north-carolina","https://insideradvantage.com/nc-top-line-tabs/","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6114153-cooper-leads-whatley-poll/","https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/september-2026-roy-coopers-lead-grows-to-15-points-in-nc-senate-race/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENC-26-D","https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/tar-heel-state-poll-roy-cooper-holds-solid-lead-over-michael-whatley-for-us-senate-in-north-carolina/","https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-7-points","https://www.commoncause.org/north-carolina/press/2026_poll_1/","https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/HPU-Poll-126-Memo-08192026.pdf","https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/08/Elon-Poll-1-fall-2026-NR-V3-8-12-26.pdf","https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/august-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-grows-to-12-5-points/","https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-august-2026-carolina-forward-poll/","https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/cooper-leads-but-whatley-has-a-path/","https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/07/fox_july-23-27-2026_north-carolina_topline_july-29-release.pdf","https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/cooper-leads-whatley-in-us-senate-race-new-nc-polls-june-2026/","https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/may-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-in-senate-race-widens/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENC-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NC00407/","https://roycooper.com/roy-cooper-raises-more-than-13-8-million-during-first-quarter-of-2026/","https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article316857054.html","https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/06/roy-cooper-raises-14-5-million-last-quarter-shattering-records-00594563","https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/roy-cooper-michael-whatley-us-senate-nc-fundraising-million-campaign-april-2026/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/north_carolina/article_6721de84-b664-4fd9-b801-8e23908878c7.html","https://ncnewsline.com/2026/02/02/cooper-reports-sizable-lead-in-fundraising-for-2026-u-s-senate-race/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NC00415/","https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/02/12/congress/koch-backed-group-posts-7-figure-ad-buy-in-n-c-senate-race-00776363","https://www.facebook.com/wsoctv/posts/republican-us-senate-candidate-michael-whatley-raised-about-5-million-last-quart/1522195716614019/","https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Michael_Whatley","https://nsjonline.com/article/2026/07/whatley-wraps-100-county-tour-cooper-ahead-in-fundraising/","https://www.carolinajournal.com/gop-super-pac-commits-71m-to-whatley-as-nc-senate-race-heats-up/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NC00563/","https://www.ncgreenparty.org/2026_candidates","https://www.gpelections.org/races/michael-dublin-runs-for-u-s-senate-2026/","https://ballotpedia.org/Shannon_Bray","https://www.facebook.com/StarNewsTV/posts/a-new-high-point-university-poll-shows-a-tighter-than-expected-race-for-north-ca/1582888597186816/","https://www.wunc.org/politics/2022-04-19/mccrory-budd-north-carolina-2022-senate-campaign-fundraising-election","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/other-data?cycle=2022&id=NCS2&spec=N"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENC-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATENC-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.973,"yes_bid":0.968,"yes_ask":0.978,"last_price":0.971,"volume":1519984.92,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:45.888134Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENC-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENC-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATENC-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.027,"yes_bid":0.023,"yes_ask":0.031,"last_price":0.028,"volume":1213498.12,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:46.969746Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENC-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.065,"Green":0.003,"Libertarian":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9481,"Republican":0.0499,"Green":0.001,"Libertarian":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.11,"Green":0.01,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.0781}},{"id":"nd-house-2026","title":"2026 North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"North Dakota's at-large congressional district","state":"North Dakota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:17:14.306194+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Julie Fedorchak","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/Rep._Julie_Fedorchak_official_photo%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Trygve Hammer","party":"Democratic-NPL","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TrygeHammer2024.jpg"},{"name":"Helene Neville","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/october2025-3-_1__20260611_012349_40668_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Julie Fedorchak","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Independent":0.005},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"North Dakota's at-large seat is one of the most Republican-held House districts in the country, and incumbent Julie Fedorchak swept the June 2026 primary with 73% after winning the seat with 69% in 2024. With no public general-election polling, the forecast rests on the state's deep GOP lean, incumbency, a substantial financial advantage, and a rematch against a challenger who lost decisively two years ago.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:16:49.792813Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00061/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/julie-fedorchak/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1339579","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/list?cycle=2021&id=&office=O","https://coloradonewsline.com/2025/07/13/house-members-pac-donations-jump/","https://www.americanprogress.org/article/climate-deniers-of-the-119th-congress-and-the-second-trump-administration/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND01044/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/trygve-hammer/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00949438/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ne-governor-2026","title":"2026 Nebraska Governor Election","office":"Governor of Nebraska","jurisdiction":"Nebraska","state":"Nebraska","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T16:03:32.194556+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jim Pillen","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JimPillen2.png"},{"name":"Lynne Walz","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lynne_WalzNE2_2026-04-28_192741.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Beard","party":"Legal Marijuana Now","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_BeardNE_2026-04-28_192939.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jim Pillen","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8599,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.13,"Legal Marijuana NOW":0.0001,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.01,"Republican":0.8599},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Nebraska's deep Republican lean, Jim Pillen's incumbency, and his large fundraising advantage make him a clear favorite to retain the governorship. Recent polling is mixed — YouGov (44-43) and Public Policy Polling (32-31) show a near-tie, while co/efficient (43-38) and Wedgewood Polls (53-36) show Pillen ahead — so the contest is closer than the state's baseline lean implies.","takeaway":"Pillen is favored to keep the governorship, though tight recent surveys leave room for a closer-than-usual race.","key_reasons":["Nebraska has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and Pillen won the office by roughly 19 points in 2022, giving Republicans a substantial structural advantage.","Pillen is the incumbent with a large financial edge — about $9.47 million cash on hand as of April 2026 against Lynne Walz's roughly $650,000 — plus the name recognition of a sitting governor.","The six head-to-head polls all show Pillen leading, but by margins ranging from 1 point (YouGov 44-43, Public Policy Polling 32-31) to 17 points (Wedgewood 53-36), leaving genuine uncertainty about the true gap."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the tightest recent surveys (YouGov 44-43 and Public Policy Polling 32-31) reflect a genuinely competitive contest or the wider Pillen leads (co/efficient 43-38, Wedgewood 53-36) are more accurate, and the prediction-market reading is dated mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T16:03:23.769608Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/nebraska/pillen-vs-walz","https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20260921_lv.pdf","https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/09/16/Wedgewood-Polls-Nebraska","https://democraticgovernors.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/PPP-Sept-2026-Poll-Memo.docx.pdf","https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/es/news/news-articles/poll-shows-tight-race-for-nebraska-governors-race-with-walz-five-points-behind-pillen/","https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1tqej99/lake_research_partners_poll_425429_lv_nebraska/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNE-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNE-26-R","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=54439118","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/briefs/nebraska-gov-jim-pillen-touts-10-million-campaign-war-chest-ahead-of-2026-reelection-bid/","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/05/07/walz-outpacing-decades-of-democrats-for-nebraska-governor-gops-pillen-still-holds-major-cash-lead/","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/another-term-nebraska-gov-jim-pillen-inevitable","https://investigatemidwest.org/2023/08/31/pillens-rise-story-1-what-you-need-to-know/","https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/nebraskas-gubernatorial-candidates-raking-in-fundraising-ahead-of-general-election/","https://www.kwit.org/podcast/spm-news/2026-06-25/pillen-walz-give-fundraising-updates-in-nebraska-governor-race","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/jim-pillen/contributors?cycle=2021&id=12553376&recs=100","https://nadc.nebraska.gov/","https://www.1011now.com/2026/05/05/lynne-walz-outraises-incumbent-jim-pillen-latest-reporting-period/","https://www.rickforgov.org/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNE-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNE-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nebraska","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0945,"yes_bid":0.091,"yes_ask":0.098,"last_price":0.11,"volume":29481.98,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:01.187973Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNE-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNE-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNE-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nebraska","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.905,"yes_bid":0.903,"yes_ask":0.907,"last_price":0.9,"volume":34729.49,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:02.288831Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNE-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.13,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Legal Marijuana NOW":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ne-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Nebraska's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nebraska's 1st Congressional District","state":"Nebraska","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T22:02:31.518564+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Flood","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike-Flood.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Backemeyer","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Backemeyer.jpg"},{"name":"Nik Sandman","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/NikSandman.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Flood","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.84,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.15,"Libertarian":0.01,"Republican":0.84},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Mike Flood brings incumbency, strong name recognition and a large fundraising edge to a district he carried with 60.1% in 2024, and both available head-to-head polls put him ahead. Democratic targeting and a narrower May margin keep this short of a lock, but the fundamentals point to a Republican hold.","takeaway":"Flood is favored to keep this Republican-leaning seat, though May polls show a closer race than his 2024 landslide.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals favor the incumbent: Flood won this eastern Nebraska seat with 60.1% in 2024 and the district leans Republican.","Flood holds a wide resource advantage, roughly $2.37M raised and about $1.56M cash on hand versus Backemeyer's roughly $354K raised and $192K cash, much of it from out-of-state donors.","Both head-to-head polls show Flood ahead, though by smaller margins than 2024: Tavern Research (ended May 21) had him +2 and Zenith Research (ended May 11) had him +7."],"uncertainty":"The only head-to-head polls are from May, disagree on the margin (Flood +2 and +7), and no newer public survey exists, so the size of a Flood win is far less certain than the outcome itself.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T22:02:27.049089Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/nebraska/district-1","https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2054962251451277808","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00801241/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-flood/summary","https://www.1011now.com/2026/05/06/campaign-cash-shaping-nebraska-senate-cd-1-races-ahead-statewide-primary/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/national-democrats-put-ne-01-its-districts-play-program","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE01143/","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/briefs/democrat-chris-backemeyer-brings-in-six-figure-fundraising-haul-in-nebraskas-1st-district/","https://niksandman.com/","https://picknikforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.84,"Democratic":0.15,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"ne-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Nebraska","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:06:25.686681+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Denise Powell","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Denise_Powell_20250512_025941.jpg"},{"name":"Brinker Harding","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brinker_Harding.png"},{"name":"Eric Michael Foreman","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Foreman.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Denise Powell","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7999,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7999,"Libertarian":0.0118,"Republican":0.1883},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Democrats hold a meaningful edge in this open Omaha-area seat: the SurveyUSA poll ending September 13 put Denise Powell ahead of Brinker Harding 46-42, and Kalshi pricing puts Democratic odds near 92%. The district's Democratic-leaning presidential vote and Powell's fundraising advantage reinforce that lead, though the thin polling base keeps the race short of a lock.","takeaway":"Democrats are favored to win Nebraska's open 2nd District seat, with Denise Powell leading the lone public poll and holding a fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["SurveyUSA's September 13 likely-voter poll shows Denise Powell leading Brinker Harding 46-42, the only public head-to-head of the general election.","This is an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot, in a district Kamala Harris carried by roughly five points in 2024, removing the GOP's incumbency advantage.","Powell reported about $2.67 million in receipts through June 30 versus roughly $2.03 million for Harding, and prediction-market pricing on Kalshi sits near 92% for a Democratic win."],"uncertainty":"The lone public poll rests on a 182-person likely-voter sample and the district has a record of splitting its ticket, so a Harding win remains plausible even with Democrats favored.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:18.074785Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/nebraska-2/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENE2-26-D","https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/Final_Statewide_General_Candidate_Filing_List_9.11.26.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENE2-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE02174/","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/04/22/powell-once-again-leads-in-fundraising-for-ne-02-dems/","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/07/23/democrat-outraises-republican-in-competitive-ne-o2-race-but-both-have-about-1m-to-spend/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/23/denise-powell-d-brinker-harding-r-and-eric-michael-foreman-l-are-running-for-open-u-s-house-seat-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/","https://emilyslist.org/candidate/denise-powell/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE02208/","https://thereader.com/2026/06/15/republican-cd2-nominee-brinker-harding-files-personal-financial-disclosures-months-after-deadline/","https://chadronradio.com/brinker-harding-smashes-historical-trends-raises-more-than-650000-in-q2-and-enters-general-election-with-over-1-million-cash-on-hand/","https://insideelections.com/person/eric-foreman-manual/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENE2-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENE2-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NE-2?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9225000000000001,"yes_bid":0.916,"yes_ask":0.929,"last_price":0.917,"volume":19183.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:21.604284Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENE2-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENE2-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENE2-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NE-2?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.08099999999999999,"yes_bid":0.074,"yes_ask":0.088,"last_price":0.085,"volume":50583.27,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:22.591498Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENE2-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.16,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.15,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.3,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.16}},{"id":"ne-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Nebraska","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T23:06:19.107068+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adrian Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Adrian_Smith_portrait_%28118th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Becky Lynn Stille","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://nebraskaexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/stille-congress3-election26-CROPPED-767x1024.jpg"},{"name":"David J. Else","party":"Legal Marijuana Now","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David-Else.png"},{"name":"Mark Cohen","party":"Nonpartisan","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://nebraskaexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Mark-Cohen.jpg"},{"name":"Macey Budke","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Macey_Budke_20260212_023310.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adrian Smith","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.007,"Other":0.003},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Nebraska's 3rd is among the most Republican-leaning districts in the nation (R+27 PVI), and incumbent Adrian Smith has won every general election since 2006, typically with 70%+ of the vote. His four challengers are underfunded and fragmented, and the only public survey is a challenger-sponsored poll that still shows Smith ahead.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T23:06:06.818532Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.beckystille2026.com/ne-cd-3-poll-survey.pdf","https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE03115/","https://missouriindependent.com/2024/06/06/meat-industry-increases-political-spending-lobbying-as-usda-updates-crucial-regulations/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_congressional_candidates_who_received_campaign_money_from_the_National_Rifle_Association","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE03180/","https://secure.actblue.com/directory/NE","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NE03217/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NE","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE03198/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NE03206/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ne-senate-2026","title":"2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Nebraska","state":"Nebraska","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:47.853023+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pete Ricketts","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PeteRicketts2015.jpg"},{"name":"Dan Osborn","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/95/Osborn_Headshot_2_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Chuck Conboy","party":"America First Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/20260909-114207_1__20260916_152203_34321_1.jpg"},{"name":"Robin Richards","party":"Nebraska Working People Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Robin_Richards1.JPG"},{"name":"Mike Marvin","party":"Legal Marijuana Now","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Marvin_2026-04-29_180732.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pete Ricketts","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.5865,"party_probabilities":{"America First":0.004,"Independent":0.4046,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.002,"Nebraska Working People":0.003,"Republican":0.5865},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Nebraska's Republican lean, Ricketts's incumbency and his roughly $11.2 million fundraising edge give him a narrow advantage over Osborn's $5.75 million. The polling is genuinely close — YouGov's survey ending October 3 showed Osborn ahead by 1, while co/efficient and Wedgewood Polls showed Ricketts ahead by 5 and 4 — so the race stays competitive rather than comfortable.","takeaway":"Ricketts is narrowly favored to hold Nebraska's Senate seat, though close polling and Osborn's independent strength keep the race competitive.","key_reasons":["Nebraska is a Republican-leaning state where the GOP has not lost a Senate race since 2006, and Ricketts won his 2024 special election by a wide margin, giving him a substantial structural floor.","Head-to-head polling is mixed and near even: YouGov (ending Oct 3) had Osborn +1, GBAO (Sep 8) Osborn +1, SurveyUSA (Sep 13) Osborn +4, while co/efficient (Sep 30) had Ricketts +5 and Wedgewood (Sep 16) Ricketts +4.","Ricketts holds a large financial advantage (about $11.2 million raised vs. Osborn's $5.75 million) plus more than $15 million in outside independent expenditures, and a liquid prediction market prices Republicans near 73%."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Ricketts's incumbency, Republican lean and money edge outweigh Osborn's near-even polling and 2024 independent showing, with small samples and no Democratic nominee adding noise.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:43.417825Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20260921_lv.pdf","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ne/","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/nebraska","https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d94236a7-5861-4b7f-9d81-d5a81ab786cc","https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2103513463045640523","https://www.norfolkneradio.com/news/new-osborn-poll-has-nebraska-senate-race-tied/article_c0bedea3-ddd5-472f-a21c-00554ced0608.html","https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/nebraska-senate-poll","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENE-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENE-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NE00129/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00832436/","https://www.1011now.com/2026/05/06/campaign-cash-shaping-nebraska-senate-cd-1-races-ahead-statewide-primary/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/a-20k-campaign-won-a-nebraska-senate-primary-then-the-candidate-quit/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/pete-ricketts","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/nebraska/federal/nebraska-senate/summary","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/10/02/dan-osborn-raises-more-than-1-million-for-second-nebraska-u-s-senate-race-against-ricketts/","https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/es/news/news-articles/ricketts-riches-wealthy-governor-billionaire-family-changed-nebraska-elections/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4NE00207/","https://thefulcrum.us/elections/dan-osborn-working-class-congress-nebraska-2026","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Osborn","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NE00202/","https://www.ketv.com/article/meet-the-american-first-party-candidate-running-for-us-senate/74021292","https://www.1011now.com/2026/09/02/nebraska-working-people-party-chair-richards-running-us-senate-herself/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NE00152/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mike-marvin"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENE-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATENE-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Nebraska?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0005,"yes_bid":0,"yes_ask":0.001,"last_price":0.002,"volume":65426.28,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:49.801521Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENE-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENE-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATENE-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.735,"yes_bid":0.73,"yes_ask":0.74,"last_price":0.74,"volume":1417191.57,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:52.284029Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENE-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.71,"Independent":0.28,"America First":0.005,"Nebraska Working People":0.003,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.56,"Independent":0.43,"America First":0.004,"Nebraska Working People":0.003,"Legal Marijuana Now":0.003},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.5918,"Independent":0.4082},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.15}},{"id":"nh-governor-2026","title":"2026 New Hampshire Governor Election","office":"Governor of New Hampshire","jurisdiction":"New Hampshire","state":"New Hampshire","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T06:03:41.511115+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kelly Ayotte","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kelly_Ayotte.jpg"},{"name":"Cinde Warmington","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cinde_Warmington.jpg"},{"name":"Stephen Villee","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephen-Villee-Headshots-_4-of-10_-2_20260906_183208_53895_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kelly Ayotte","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8515,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1386,"Libertarian":0.0099,"Republican":0.8515},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has led every 2026 public general-election poll, with recent high-quality surveys putting her roughly 4 to 11 points ahead of Democrat Cinde Warmington, and she holds a large fundraising edge (~$6.4M vs. under $1M). New Hampshire's slight Democratic presidential lean and midterm headwinds keep a modest upset path open, but the consistent polling and resource gap make Ayotte a clear favorite.","takeaway":"Ayotte is clearly favored for a second term, leading consistently in polling and fundraising.","key_reasons":["Ayotte has led every 2026 public general-election poll, with recent surveys from NYT/Siena (+11), YouGov (+9), Saint Anselm/AARP (+7) and UNH (+4) clustering around a high-single-digit lead.","Ayotte holds a substantial incumbency and resource advantage, raising about $6.4 million versus Warmington's sub-$1 million, enabling a dominant paid-media campaign in the closing weeks.","New Hampshire is a purple state that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 and Republicans hold a statewide trifecta, so midterm headwinds and the state's Democratic presidential lean leave a real but modest tail risk."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether New Hampshire's Democratic presidential lean and national midterm headwinds can overcome Ayotte's consistent polling lead and large fundraising advantage; the September UNH three-way poll showing a narrower 47-43 margin is the main signal of tightening.","based_on_poll_count":11,"generated_at":"2026-10-07T06:03:37.885668Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/25/polls/times-siena-poll-nh-crosstabs.html","https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nh_20260921_lv.pdf","https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-new-hampshire.doi.10.26419-2fres.01065.022.pdf","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2004&context=survey_center_polls","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1990&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-republicans-facing-midterm-headwinds-democratic-lead-widens","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/nh/","https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/new-hampshire","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1973&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-06-18/ayotte-warmington-governor-election-2026-fundraising-nh-newhampshire","https://nhjournal.com/analysis-dead-warmington-walking-seven-months-in-cindes-yet-to-raise-1m/","https://www.keenesentinel.com/news/local/kelly-ayotte-leads-cinde-warmington-in-campaign-fundraising-haul-for-nh-governor/article_f995026e-931c-4fd5-819d-28339ba7ba17.html","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=137570&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00030980&cycle=Career","https://cfs.sos.nh.gov/","https://nhjournal.com/doom-and-gloom-warmington-campaign-struggles-with-polls-cash/","https://nhjournal.com/ayotte-posts-1-5m-fundraising-haul-will-warmington-be-able-to-match/","https://www.wmur.com/article/warmington-campaign-fundraising-61626/71617219"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.14},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"Libertarian":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"nh-house-01-2026","title":"2026 New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District","state":"New Hampshire","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T18:03:37.421714+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Stefany Shaheen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stefany_Shaheen_20250814_045101.png"},{"name":"Anthony DiLorenzo","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-6364_20260809_225239_32483_1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Stefany Shaheen","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7999,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7999,"Republican":0.2001},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept 17–21) puts Stefany Shaheen ahead of Anthony DiLorenzo 46–42 with 11% undecided, and the district's slight Democratic lean plus Shaheen's fundraising advantage reinforce that lead. DiLorenzo's self-funded campaign and the seat's narrow 2024 margin keep this from being a comfortable Democratic win in an open seat.","takeaway":"Democrat Stefany Shaheen holds a modest but real edge in this open-seat battleground, though the race remains competitive.","key_reasons":["UNH Survey Center polling (Sept 17–21, n=711) shows Shaheen leading DiLorenzo 46–42, with 11% undecided.","The open seat sits in a district Kamala Harris carried by about two points in 2024, and Shaheen has raised roughly $1.8M — largely small-dollar — against DiLorenzo's $1.29M, $800K of which is a personal loan.","Kalshi's market priced Democrats near 95% as of Sept 15, but that reading predates the latest polling and is treated as directional context only."],"uncertainty":"Only one numeric head-to-head poll exists, 11% of voters are undecided, and the prediction-market reading is stale, so the race turns on whether DiLorenzo's self-funded business-profile campaign can close a four-point gap in a district decided by two points in 2024.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T18:03:32.606687Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2004&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-house-1-polls-2026.html","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENH1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENH1-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NH01321/","https://www.wmur.com/article/stefany-shaheen-campaign-q1/70909870","https://nhjournal.com/sullivan-edges-out-shaheen-in-q2-fundraising/","https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-04-20/1st-district-congressional-candidates-money-race-2026-nh-newhampshire-politics","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NH01420/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENH1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENH1-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NH-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9495,"yes_bid":0.944,"yes_ask":0.955,"last_price":0.941,"volume":7329.09,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:29.532150Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENH1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENH1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENH1-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NH-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.038,"yes_bid":0.029,"yes_ask":0.047,"last_price":0.03,"volume":8956.28,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:30.570103Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENH1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.65,"Republican":0.35},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.22}},{"id":"nh-house-02-2026","title":"2026 New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District","state":"New Hampshire","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T10:04:11.403205+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maggie Goodlander","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/Maggie_Goodlander_official_portrait%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Lily Williams","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lily_Williams1.jpg"},{"name":"Robbie Mahrou","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/image-_20__20260610_160131_29705_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maggie Goodlander","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.87,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Independent":0.0144,"Republican":0.1156},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Goodlander is the incumbent in a district that has not elected a Republican since 2010 and that she carried by about six points in 2024, and she holds a better than 3-to-1 fundraising advantage over Williams. Williams is on her third consecutive bid for the seat with no elected experience, and independent Mahrou reported no FEC receipts.","takeaway":"Goodlander is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat given her incumbency, 2024 win, and fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Incumbency and history: Goodlander won this seat 52.9%-47.0% in 2024 in a district that has not sent a Republican to the House since 2010.","Resource advantage: Goodlander raised roughly $4.16M this cycle versus about $1.2M for Williams, whose money is overwhelmingly small-dollar.","Candidate field: Williams is on her third consecutive bid for the seat with no elected experience, and independent Mahrou reported no FEC receipts."],"uncertainty":"No head-to-head polling of the current general-election field is logged, so the size of Goodlander's advantage is not pinned down by direct survey evidence, and a minor independent on the ballot adds a small amount of margin uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T10:04:05.820458Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NH02399/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/maggie-goodlander/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(September_8_Democratic_primary)","https://www.concordmonitor.com/2025/10/24/my-turn-goodlander-norpac-antisemitism-bill/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NH02260/","https://nhjournal.com/williams-orlando-turn-up-heat-in-nh-02-gop-showdown/","https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(September_8_Republican_primary)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NH02303/","https://ballotpedia.org/Robbie_Mahrou"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.045,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.08,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.12,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"nh-senate-2026","title":"2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"New Hampshire","state":"New Hampshire","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T08:11:46.884073+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Pappas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Chris_Pappas_portrait_%28118th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"John E. Sununu","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/2d1ee27058dab074de7ae6b2d7e94d6f.jpg"},{"name":"Edmond Laplante","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Edmond_Laplante.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Pappas","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.01,"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Chris Pappas leads in nearly every recent general-election poll, including 50%-42% (UNH) and 50%-45% (Siena) on September 24, and holds a large fundraising edge over John E. Sununu. The open seat and Sununu's prior statewide standing, plus heavy Republican-aligned outside spending, keep the race competitive enough to warrant only modest confidence.","takeaway":"Pappas is clearly favored in New Hampshire's open Senate race, though the contest remains competitive.","key_reasons":["Pappas leads by 5-8 points in the most recent September polls (UNH 50-42, Siena 50-45, Trafalgar 47-41, InsiderAdvantage 48-40), with only one tie.","Pappas has raised roughly $14.6M versus about $4.1M for Sununu, giving him a substantial resource advantage.","Sununu is a credible former senator and Republican-aligned outside spending plus the open-seat, swing-state context leave meaningful Republican upside."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether heavy Republican-aligned outside spending and Sununu's prior statewide profile can close a consistent 5-8 point polling gap, and the sparse, partly partisan mix of surveys limits confidence.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-04T20:53:33.943307Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/25/polls/times-siena-poll-nh-toplines.html","https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/new-hampshire","https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-national-u-s-senate-surveys-n-c-cooper-48-whatley-43-mi-elsayed-47-nh-pappas-48-sununu-40/","https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/nh/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENH-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENH-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00660464/","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/us/politics/senate-midterm-elections-fundraising.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00924092/","https://nhjournal.com/sununus-cash-edge-grows-while-brown-falls-behind-in-q1-fundraising/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENH-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATENH-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.86,"yes_bid":0.85,"yes_ask":0.87,"last_price":0.85,"volume":477653.12,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:54.814624Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENH-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENH-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATENH-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.135,"yes_bid":0.13,"yes_ask":0.14,"last_price":0.13,"volume":1194320.32,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:55.772660Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENH-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.16,"Constitution":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17,"Constitution":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.36,"Constitution":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.21}},{"id":"nj-house-01-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 1st Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-26T03:11:54.445331+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Donald Norcross","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/220px-Donald_Norcross_official_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Damon Galdo","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DamonGaldo.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Donald Norcross","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NJ-01 is a D+10 district that has not elected a Republican since 1972, and six-term incumbent Donald Norcross holds a massive financial advantage ($2.1M vs. $5K) over underfunded challenger Damon Galdo, who is making his third long-shot bid for the seat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-07-26T20:47:22.012908Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/don-norcross/us_congress/summary?mpid=1049021","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/donald-norcross-has-over-2-1-million-in-campaign-warchest/amp/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-nj-1/compare/damon-galdo-vs-donald-norcross","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NJ01187/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nj-house-02-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T15:03:18.148405+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jeff Van Drew","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JEFF_VAN_DREW.jpg"},{"name":"Zack Mullock","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://whyy.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Zack-Mullock-Headshot.jpg"},{"name":"Ramon Mora Jr.","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/file-00000000682c71f5b0ea74ec469b3372_20260604_155016_29303_1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jeff Van Drew","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.17,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.82},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"New Jersey's 2nd District remains strongly Republican-leaning — Trump carried it 55%–43% in 2024 — and Van Drew pairs incumbency with a large fundraising edge ($1.93M raised and $1.54M cash on hand versus Mullock's $463K). With no public polling, the race rests on those fundamentals, leaving Mullock a narrow path in a district where the only Democrat to win since 1995 was Van Drew himself.","takeaway":"Van Drew is clearly favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty about the margin.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals favor Republicans: Trump carried the 2nd District 55%–43% in 2024, and no Democrat other than Van Drew has won it since 1995.","Van Drew holds a substantial incumbency and resource advantage — roughly $1.93M raised and $1.54M cash on hand versus Mullock's $463K — plus a long-established South Jersey profile.","No public polling exists for the general election, and independent Ramon Mora Jr. reports no fundraising, so the estimate rests on fundamentals rather than measured vote preference."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the forecast rests on district lean and fundraising; a Democratic-leaning national environment or Mullock's local profile could tighten the margin more than expected.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T15:03:14.456526Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2026/2026-official-primary-results-us-house.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NJ02166/","https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jeff-van-drew/summary","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/new-jerseys-q3-congressional-fundraising-by-the-numbers/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ02251/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/zack-mullock","https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/bayly-winder-calls-on-zack-mullock-to-release-personal-financial-disclosure/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00945964/","https://frontrunnernewjersey.com/2026/07/04/ramon-mora-jr-runs-for-congress-as-progressive-independent/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.09,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.21,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"nj-house-03-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T02:53:23.669489+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Herbert C. Conaway Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/ddc900_b203b52ea1384bc68cfb710790e19750~mv2.png"},{"name":"Michael McGuire","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://michaelmcguireforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/714004002_122126208933177077_3035341949670120521_n.jpg"},{"name":"Ryan Kelly","party":"Affordability, Accountability, People","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/ryan-ballotpedia-crop01_20260608_193150_29586_1.jpg"},{"name":"Steven Welzer","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/StevenWelzer2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Herbert C. Conaway Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8865,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8865,"Affordability, Accountability, People":0.0098,"Green":0.0049,"Independent":0.0001,"Republican":0.0987},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Conaway holds a clear structural edge in a district that leans Democratic and backed Harris by roughly eight points in 2024, and he carries a large fundraising advantage over McGuire. With no public polling of the general election, the forecast rests on partisan lean, incumbency, and the challenger's thin resources.","takeaway":"Conaway is favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of general-election polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district's Democratic lean and 2024 presidential result give the incumbent a durable structural advantage.","Conaway's fundraising ($934,659 raised, $439,328 cash on hand) far outpaces McGuire's ($79,190 raised, $807 on hand with $94,594 in debt), leaving the challenger little room for a fall push.","Incumbency and prior name recognition from 26 years in the state Assembly favor Conaway in a race with no public polling to suggest otherwise."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this general election, and the Green and independent candidates on the ballot add modest uncertainty about the final vote split.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T02:53:16.872120Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00859496/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/new-jersey-district-3-race-winner-by-party/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/new-jerseys-q3-congressional-fundraising-by-the-numbers/","https://www.aipac.watch/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/house-democrats-boost-bennetts-campaign-coffers-after-primary-win/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ03184/","https://ballotpedia.org/Michael_McGuire_(New_Jersey)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ03192/","https://ballotpedia.org/Steven_Welzer"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.005,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.1,"Affordability, Accountability, People":0.015,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.15,"Green":0.02,"Affordability, Accountability, People":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"nj-house-04-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 4th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T07:44:13.247110+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Smith.jpg"},{"name":"Rachel Peace","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rachel_Peace.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Smith","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This is the most Republican seat in New Jersey (R+14 PVI, roughly 38% GOP voter registration), and 45-year incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a 24th term with a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage, holds an overwhelming structural edge over first-time Democratic nominee Rachel Peace. With no public polling, the safe-Republican forecast rests on the district's partisan composition and the incumbent's durability rather than direct survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:44:03.578494Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NJ04014/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ04257/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/new-jerseys-q3-congressional-funraising-by-the-numbers/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/where-n-j-congressional-funraising-stands-heading-into-the-2026-midterms/","https://wwww.jezebel.com/pro-israel-pac-is-funneling-millions-of-anti-abortion-donors-money-into-democratic-aces","https://wwww.business insider.com/old-money-retires-turbocharging-politics-congress-elections-2022-9","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/chris-smith-raises-1-2-million-so-far-now-hes-facing-a-democrat-who-doesnt-know-how-much-hes-raised/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rachel-peace/donors","https://www.peace4shore.com/","https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/njca-pac-endorses-rachel-peace-for-cd4/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nj-house-05-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 5th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:20:41.518702+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Gottheimer","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Josh_Gottheimer.jpg"},{"name":"Sean Kirrane","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SeanKirrane2025.jpg"},{"name":"Adam Rueda","party":"Humane Sustainable Future Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Rueda_2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Gottheimer","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Humane Sustainable Future":0.005,"Republican":0.045},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Josh Gottheimer, first elected in 2016 and seeking a sixth term, holds a strong position in a district with a Democratic registration edge and a roughly $12.8M cash-on-hand advantage over Republican Sean Kirrane's minimal fundraising. With no public polling, fundamentals and prediction markets (~93% Democratic) point to a comfortable Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Democrats are heavily favored to hold New Jersey's 5th District, with Gottheimer expected to win a sixth term.","key_reasons":["Gottheimer is a well-funded incumbent in a district with a Democratic registration advantage (35% D vs. 26% R) and a strong partisan lean toward Democrats.","Kirrane's disclosed fundraising (~$56K total receipts) is dwarfed by Gottheimer's ~$12.8M cash on hand, sharply limiting his ability to compete.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 93%, consistent with the district's fundamentals; no public polling exists."],"uncertainty":"No public polling has been published for this race, and the prediction market's thin liquidity means the forecast rests primarily on fundamentals rather than direct voter-intent evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:20:35.349092Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ5-26-D","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/new-jersey-5/","https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2026/2026-unofficial-general-candidates-us-house-0604.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ5-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ05171/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/josh-gottheimer/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1067622","https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2026/08/banking-bill-is-latest-step-back-from-financial-crash-protections/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gottheimers-dragon-hoard-grows-to-12-8-million-after-record-quarter/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=39707518&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/josh-gottheimer/us_congress/summary?mpid=1067622","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/where-n-j-congressional-fundraising-stands-heading-into-the-2026-midterms/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ05221/","https://www.njspotlightnews.org/special-report/primary-election-profile-5th-congressional-district/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/less-than-two-months-from-primary-day-heres-where-new-jerseys-congressional-fundraising-stands/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/sean-kirrane/campaign-finance","https://opencollective.com/greenparty2-0","https://adamrueda4nj5.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ5-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ5-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NJ-5?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.927,"yes_bid":0.918,"yes_ask":0.936,"last_price":0.916,"volume":4104.64,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:54.658310Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ5-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ5-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ5-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NJ-5?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.07200000000000001,"yes_bid":0.064,"yes_ask":0.08,"last_price":0.083,"volume":2791.08,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:33:55.849125Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ5-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.045,"Humane Sustainable Future":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.965,"Republican":0.033,"Humane Sustainable Future":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.08,"Humane Sustainable Future":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.065}},{"id":"nj-house-06-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 6th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T16:04:01.164213+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Frank Pallone Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Frank_Pallone.jpg"},{"name":"Hillary Herzig","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Hillary_Herzig.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Frank Pallone Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"No public polling exists, but the district's roughly 2-to-1 Democratic registration edge, Pallone's 38-year incumbency as Energy & Commerce Ranking Member, and his $3.1M warchest versus Herzig's $1,866 make a Democratic hold highly secure. The district's 2024 rightward shift (Harris by ~6 vs Biden's 20) tempers the expected margin but does not threaten the seat's fundamental lean.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T07:45:21.462545Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/pallone-warchest-tops-3-million/amp/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/new-jersey-6/","https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=H2026NJ06","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NJ03073/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/frank-pallone/summary","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/where-n-j-congressional-fundraising-stands-heading-into-the-2026-midterms/","https://ballotpedia.org/Personal_Gain_Index_(U.S._Congress)","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00927335/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/republican-newcomer-enters-race-against-pallone-in-nj-6/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nj-house-07-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 7th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:07:06.814670+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Thomas Kean Jr.","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom-Kean.jpg"},{"name":"Rebecca Bennett","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rebecca_Bennett.jpg"},{"name":"Seamus Patrick O'Toole","party":"Stop Israel's Genocide","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rebecca Bennett","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.72,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.2755,"Stop Israel's Genocide":0.0045},"margin_estimate":4.2,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The most recent general-election poll (StimSight Research, ended Sept. 12) shows Bennett ahead of Kean 47-42 with 10% undecided, and Bennett has raised more than $8 million for the cycle against an incumbent who had not released third-quarter figures. Kean's incumbency, the district's narrow Republican registration edge, and Trump's one-point 2024 win keep this competitive, but the polling and money trends point toward a Democratic flip.","takeaway":"Bennett leads Kean in recent polling and holds a large fundraising edge, making Democrats modestly favored to flip this swing seat.","key_reasons":["Bennett leads the September StimSight Research likely-voter poll 47-42, with Kean below 45% and 10% undecided.","Bennett's fundraising surge (about $8 million for the cycle, roughly $4 million in the third quarter) gives her a resource advantage over the incumbent.","The district remains closely divided — roughly 17,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats and a one-point Trump win in 2024 — so Kean's incumbency keeps the race within reach."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Kean's incumbency and the district's slight Republican tilt can overcome Bennett's polling lead and fundraising edge, with the two available polls — StimSight Research (ended Sept. 12, ±4.7-point margin of error) and Z to A Research (ended May 26) — leaving real room for movement given 10% undecided.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:59.783756Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.insidernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/StimSight_NJ07_toplines.pdf","https://314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Poll-Memo-314-Action-NJ-7-Rebecca-Bennett.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ7-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ7-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NJ07261/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/bennett-q3-26/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/thomas-kean/summary","https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/22/tom-kean-fundraising-cash-lead/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/kean-campaign-raises-over-500000-in-nj-7-after-candidates-extended-hospitalization/","https://dccc.org/three-questions-for-speaker-johnson-and-tom-kean-jr-as-they-fundraise-together-in-nj-07/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ07201/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/bennett-hamawy-pull-further-away-in-fundraising-per-pre-primary-reports/","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/news/ecu-endorses-rebecca-bennett-in-nj-07","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/bennett-raises-colossal-1-6-million-in-q3-in-bid-to-unseat-kean-in-nj-7/","https://ballotpedia.org/Seamus_O'Toole"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ7-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ7-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-7?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.908,"yes_bid":0.907,"yes_ask":0.909,"last_price":0.909,"volume":130335.31,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:02.967180Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ7-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ7-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ7-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NJ-7?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0895,"yes_bid":0.084,"yes_ask":0.095,"last_price":0.086,"volume":81359.49,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:04.935038Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ7-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.14,"Stop Israel's 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Eliopoulos","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ballotpedia-photo-1024_20260608_170538_29569_1.jpg"},{"name":"Craig Honts","party":"Socialist Workers","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://themilitant.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Craig-Honts-Candidate-and-Barry-Barrett-8916.jpg"},{"name":"Da'Shone Hughey","party":"We The People","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Press-pic-2_20260617_052426_30028_2.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Robert Menendez Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.025,"Socialist Workers":0.003,"We The People":0.002},"margin_estimate":52,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"New Jersey's 8th is a heavily Democratic, majority-Hispanic seat that Menendez has carried comfortably, and no Republican qualified for the November ballot. With roughly $1.96M raised and $680K cash on hand, the incumbent faces an independent backed by GOP county chairs plus two minor-party candidates, none with reported campaign funds.","takeaway":"Menendez is a prohibitive favorite to hold this heavily Democratic Newark-area seat against three minor candidates.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Democratic lean across Newark, Jersey City, Hoboken and Elizabeth makes Menendez a heavy favorite, and he has won here comfortably before.","No Republican qualified for the ballot after a petition failure, leaving the GOP-aligned independent Eliopoulos without a party line and with no FEC-reported fundraising.","Menendez is a well-funded incumbent (~$1.96M raised, $680K cash on hand) against three candidates with no reported campaign money or electoral track record."],"uncertainty":"No head-to-head polling of the current general-election field exists, so the margin estimate rests on district partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising rather than survey data, and the size of any protest vote for the independent is unknown.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T07:03:26.532390Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2026/2026-unofficial-general-candidates-us-house-0612.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NJ08232/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/robert-menendez","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/ali-seeks-to-make-aipac-an-issue-in-nj-8-campaign/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/rob-menendez/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1073563","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/lacking-a-candidate-republicans-will-back-independent-campaign-in-cd-8/","https://patch.com/new-jersey/newarknj/2-socialists-launch-congress-bids-nj-kuniansky-honts-hit-campaign-trail","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ08217/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/da-shone-hughey"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.025,"Socialist Workers":0.003,"We The People":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":48,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.995,"Independent":0.004,"Socialist Workers":0.0005,"We The People":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":52,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Independent":0.03,"Socialist Workers":0.005,"We The People":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":65,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.035}},{"id":"nj-house-09-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 9th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:02:39.591986+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nellie Pou","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://nelliepoufornewjersey.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Pou_Cutout-scaled.png"},{"name":"Rosemary Pino","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RosemaryPino_2026-08-01_182049.jpg"},{"name":"Terrisa Bukovinac","party":"Save Our Babies Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Terrisa_Bukovinac_presidential_candidate_portrait_%28cropped%29.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=api&utm_content=thumbnail_unscaled"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nellie Pou","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Save Our Babies":0.005},"margin_estimate":10.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Nellie Pou holds a decisive fundraising and name-recognition edge over Republican Rosemary Pino in a district with a long Democratic history, and no public general-election polling has surfaced to suggest a competitive race. Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%, consistent with a clear Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"Pou is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, with Pino's limited resources and no competitive polling pointing to a comfortable margin.","key_reasons":["Pou's resource advantage: roughly $2.66 million raised and $1.32 million cash on hand, versus Pino's roughly $438,000 raised, about $40,000 cash on hand and $157,000 in committee debts.","No public polling of the general election has been logged, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96% against about 3% for a Republican win.","The district has a strong Democratic history even though it narrowly backed Trump in 2024, and Pou won the seat in 2024; the minor-party candidacy of Terrisa Bukovinac shows no fundraising or electoral base."],"uncertainty":"There is no public general-election polling, the district narrowly backed Trump in 2024, and the Republican-side market is thinly traded with a mid-September timestamp, so the winner is clearer than the eventual margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:02:32.598577Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ9-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ9-26-R","https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2026/2026-unofficial-general-candidates-us-house-0612.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NJ09194/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/nellie-pou","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/where-n-j-congressional-fundraising-stands-heading-into-the-2026-midterms/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/pou-raises-another-460k-now-has-1-5-million-on-hand/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Nellie+Pou+Opposes+House+Measure+Containing+Voter+ID+Provisions","https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/pou-raises-more-than-500k-ahead-of-tough-re-election-fight/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ09264/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rosemary-pino/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/Terrisa_Bukovinac"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ9-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ9-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NJ-9?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.964,"yes_bid":0.96,"yes_ask":0.968,"last_price":0.967,"volume":11553.06,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:57.483060Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ9-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENJ9-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENJ9-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NJ-9?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0325,"yes_bid":0.03,"yes_ask":0.035,"last_price":0.036,"volume":2445.92,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:11.486163Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENJ9-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Save Our Babies":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.035,"Save Our Babies":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.89,"Republican":0.1,"Save Our Babies":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"nj-house-10-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 10th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T08:08:46.825492+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"LaMonica McIver","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1647607767854.jpg"},{"name":"Carmen Bucco","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CarmenBucco2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"LaMonica McIver","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"NJ-10 is a heavily Democratic seat where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 54% to 10%, and incumbent LaMonica McIver defeated the same challenger, Carmen Bucco, by a wide margin in 2024 before amassing a roughly 940-to-1 fundraising advantage. Bucco's minimal campaign operation and the district's deep partisan lean leave Republicans with no realistic path absent a dramatic external shock.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T08:08:31.654299Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NJ10176/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NJ10135/","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483546","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lamonica-mciver/summary","https://cawp.rutgers.edu/news-media/press-releases/women-candidates-competing-men-fundraising-closest-2026-midterm-matchups","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/10","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/new-jerseys-q2-congressional-fundraising-by-the-numbers/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nj-house-11-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 11th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:03:32.088678+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Analilia Mejia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Analilia_Mejia%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Joe Hathaway","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Joe_Hathaway_Running_For_Congress.png"},{"name":"Alan Bond","party":"Hope for Tomorrow","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alan_Bond_20260224_125733.png"},{"name":"Vincent Matrisciano","party":"Common Sense Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/matrisciano-headshot_20260629_174924_30622_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Analilia Mejia","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Common Sense Independent":0.0117,"Hope for Tomorrow":0.0117,"Republican":0.1167},"margin_estimate":14.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"New Jersey's 11th is a Democratic-leaning suburban district, and incumbent Analilia Mejia already defeated Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 2026 special election while holding a large resource and institutional edge. No general-election polling has been logged, and the minor candidates have shown limited reach.","takeaway":"Mejia is favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of general-election polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Mejia is the incumbent who won the April 2026 special election and the June Democratic primary in a district that leans Democratic, giving her a structural advantage.","She already beat Hathaway head-to-head in the April special election and holds a substantial fundraising and endorsement advantage, while Hathaway shows no meaningful campaign finance activity.","The minor candidates are unlikely to be decisive: Bond finished a distant third in April and Matrisciano is running as a write-in after being removed from the ballot."],"uncertainty":"The race has no public general-election polling or prediction-market signals, so the size of Mejia's advantage is far less certain than its direction.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:03:25.929746Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2026/2026-unofficial-general-candidates-us-house-0604.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ11286/","https://www.quiverquant.com/committees/C00927681","https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2026/01/race-for-sherrills-congressional-seat-fuels-6-5-million-in-spending/","https://emilyslist.org/candidate/analilia-mejia/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00921809/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ11336/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.1,"Hope for Tomorrow":0.01,"Common Sense Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.037,"Hope for Tomorrow":0.002,"Common Sense Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.2,"Hope for Tomorrow":0.01,"Common Sense Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"nj-house-12-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Jersey's 12th Congressional District","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-04T15:25:18.412307+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adam Hamawy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Hamawy_20260305_035406.png"},{"name":"Gregg Mele","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gregg_Mele.jpg"},{"name":"Andres Jinete","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andres-Jinete-Profile-Bright_1__20260811_033046_50621_1.jpg"},{"name":"Winston Jordan","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/WinstonJordan1_20260611_174428_29767_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adam Hamawy","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This heavily Democratic open seat (D+13 PVI; Trenton, Princeton, Plainfield) strongly favors Adam Hamawy over Republican Gregg Mele, and Hamawy's $1.5M+ war chest plus major progressive endorsements contrast sharply with Mele's $3,083 cash on hand. No general-election polling exists, so the rating rests on district fundamentals and the candidates' relative strength rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:06:36.503826Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483556","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nj-12-republican-reports-just-3083-in-cash-19128-in-debt/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ12417/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/new-jersey-12/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/after-super-pacs-ad-blitz-hamawy-internal-poll-puts-him-in-the-lead/","https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/22/adam-hamawy-fundraising/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/pro-palestine-super-pac-plans-to-spend-2-million-supporting-hamawy/","https://legis1.com/news/nj-12-democratic-primary-funding-the-whos-paying","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/gregg-mele","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NJ12441/","https://winstonforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Winston_Jordan"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nj-senate-2026","title":"2026 New Jersey U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"New Jersey","state":"New Jersey","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T08:05:49.217488+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Cory Booker","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cory_Booker.jpg"},{"name":"Justin Murphy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://jerseyjustin4senate.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/D70_8732-Web-684x1024.jpg"},{"name":"Joanne Kuniansky","party":"Socialist Workers","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://whyy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/JKuniansky.jpeg"},{"name":"Veronica Fernandez","party":"End the Corruption! Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-6362-_1__20260707_172230_44529_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Cory Booker","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"End the Corruption!":0.005,"Republican":0.02,"Socialist Workers":0.005},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since 1972, and incumbent Cory Booker pairs that partisan lean with a dominant resource edge — roughly $23.1 million cash on hand versus Justin Murphy's $27,315 raised. The lone head-to-head survey, a September 8–12 StimSight Research (Insider NJ) poll of 498 likely voters, shows Booker ahead 49–43, though its sample was confined to the 7th Congressional District rather than the statewide electorate.","takeaway":"Cory Booker is heavily favored to hold New Jersey's Senate seat, with Democrats priced near 97%.","key_reasons":["New Jersey's long Democratic Senate history and Booker's incumbency make this a safe-seat contest.","Booker holds an overwhelming fundraising advantage (~$23.1M cash on hand) against Murphy's minimal ~$27K raised and near-zero institutional support.","The only available head-to-head poll shows Booker leading 49–43, and prediction markets price Democrats at roughly 97–98%."],"uncertainty":"Statewide polling is essentially absent — the sole survey covers only the 7th Congressional District — so the size of Booker's margin is far less certain than his likelihood of winning.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T08:05:41.576081Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.insidernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/StimSight_NJ07_toplines.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENJ-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENJ-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4NJ00185/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/cory-booker-has-a-brobdingnagian-22-2-million-warchest-for-re-election-campaign/amp/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/industries?cid=N00035267&cycle=2024&recs=20&type=C","https://www.insidernj.com/booker-raises-10-million-in-q2/","https://inthesetimes.com/article/cory-booker-wall-street-private-equity-pharma-pac-goldman-sachs","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/booker-starts-out-2026-cycle-with-11-2-million-on-hand/","https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/06/02/congress/justin-murphy-senate-new-jersey-00947916","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4NJ00532/","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/justin-murphy-gets-senate-nod-to-challenge-cory-booker-lead-gop-ticket/","https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4592637/justin-murphy-face-cory-booker-negative-cash-on-hand/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NJ","https://elec.nj.gov/publicinformation/gub_candidate_statements2021.htm","https://newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/andy-kim-has-cash-lead-in-senate-races-final-weeks/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0NJ00258/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00742569/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENJ-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATENJ-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Jersey?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.978,"yes_bid":0.971,"yes_ask":0.985,"last_price":0.971,"volume":15057.47,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:57.892182Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENJ-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENJ-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATENJ-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Jersey?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0185,"yes_bid":0.007,"yes_ask":0.03,"last_price":0.03,"volume":35521.69,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:46:58.827585Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENJ-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Socialist Workers":0.005,"End the Corruption!":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.009,"Socialist Workers":0.0005,"End the Corruption!":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Socialist Workers":0.005,"End the Corruption!":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"nm-governor-2026","title":"2026 New Mexico Governor Election","office":"Governor of New Mexico","jurisdiction":"New Mexico","state":"New Mexico","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T14:59:23.431566+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Deb Haaland","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Deb_Haaland.jpg"},{"name":"Gregg Hull","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gregg_Hull_20260202_045148.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Deb Haaland","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential and statewide elections, combined with Haaland's statewide profile and roughly 15-to-1 fundraising advantage, makes her the clear favorite in this open-seat race. The larger, more recent public poll showed her up 41-24, though a campaign-backed Republican survey showed a near tie, which keeps confidence modest.","takeaway":"Democrats are clearly favored to hold the New Mexico governorship, with Deb Haaland the likely winner.","key_reasons":["New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential and statewide elections gives the Democratic nominee a structural edge in this open seat.","Haaland's enormous fundraising advantage (~$13.9M vs ~$950K) and national name recognition make her a much stronger general-election candidate than Hull.","The larger, more recent BSP Research poll showed Haaland ahead 41% to 24%, while a campaign-backed Republican poll showed a near tie."],"uncertainty":"Public polling is sparse and conflicting — a campaign-backed Republican survey showed a near tie — and the large undecided share leaves room for movement despite the market's strong Democratic signal.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T22:26:17.662660Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2026/08/23/haaland-leads-hull-in-first-public-poll/","https://pinonpost.com/haaland-hits-panic-button-after-poll-shows-govs-race-tightening/","https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/elections/independent-poll-shows-deb-haaland-with-commanding-lead-for-new-mexico-governor/","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/new-mexico/hull-vs-haaland","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNM-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNM-26-R","https://www.sos.nm.gov/online-services/public-information-data/campaign-finance-disclosure-data/","https://sourcenm.com/2026/07/06/democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-haaland-outraises-hull-2-1-in-month-following-primary-election/","https://nmindepth.com/2026/fundraising-on-cruise-control/","https://sourcenm.com/2026/04/14/democratic-nm-governor-candidate-haaland-raises-millions-more-than-bregman-ahead-of-june-2-primary/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=8997515&default=candidate","https://gregghull.com/news/hull-campaign-builds-grassroots-momentum-with-overwhelming-new-mexico-support/","https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2026/04/13/exclusive-haaland-reports-11-million-haul-for-gov-campaign-nearly-doubling-all-other-candidates-to-date/","https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2026/09/15/with-just-weeks-until-voting-begin-haaland-holds-millions-while-hull-struggles-to-keep-up/","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/15/dem-nm-governor-nominee-haaland-raises-another-3-4m-in-recent-filings/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNM-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNM-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9275,"yes_bid":0.922,"yes_ask":0.933,"last_price":0.941,"volume":19241.77,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:08.943476Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNM-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNM-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNM-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Mexico","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0685,"yes_bid":0.055,"yes_ask":0.082,"last_price":0.084,"volume":39863.33,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:10.184026Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNM-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"nm-house-01-2026","title":"2026 New Mexico's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Mexico's 1st Congressional District","state":"New Mexico","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T08:17:03.699017+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Melanie Ann Stansbury","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Melanie_Stansbury.png"},{"name":"Ndidiamaka Okpareke","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ndidiamaka_Okpareke_20250828_024057.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Melanie Ann Stansbury","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Melanie Stansbury holds New Mexico's most Democratic-leaning House seat, carrying it with 56.4% in 2024, and out-raises Republican challenger Okpareke by more than 13-to-1 (~$1.35M vs ~$100K as of June 30, 2026). With the district's structural lean, incumbency, and finance gap all aligned, a Democratic hold is overwhelming despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T08:16:45.480166Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-nm-1/compare/melanie-stansbury-vs-ndidiamaka-okpareke","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NM01144/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NM01129/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/new-mexico-1/forecast/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/melanie-stansbury/donors","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Mexico","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ndidiamaka-okpareke/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"nm-house-02-2026","title":"2026 New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District","state":"New Mexico","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:06:27.583938+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gabriel Vasquez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GabrielVasquez.jpg"},{"name":"Greg Cunningham","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg_Cunningham_2026-07-02_012405.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gabriel Vasquez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.74,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.74,"Republican":0.26},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez leads the two available head-to-head surveys — 46-43 in the September SurveyUSA poll and 43-41 in the April co/efficient survey released by the NRCC — while holding roughly three times Cunningham's cash on hand. The district stays genuinely competitive, having backed Trump in 2024 and elected Vasquez narrowly twice, so a Republican flip remains plausible even with the Democrat favored.","takeaway":"Vasquez is favored to hold this competitive southern New Mexico seat, buoyed by narrow polling leads and a large cash advantage.","key_reasons":["Vasquez leads both head-to-head polls of the current field, including the September SurveyUSA survey (46-43) and the April co/efficient survey released by the NRCC (43-41).","Vasquez holds a substantial resource edge, roughly $2.38 million in cash on hand versus about $794,187 for Cunningham, in a heavily advertised battleground.","The district's narrow recent history and its 2024 Trump vote keep Cunningham's path to a flip open, capping Democratic confidence."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Cunningham can convert the district's Trump-friendly, narrowly-decided history into a win against Vasquez's polling and funding edge, with only two public surveys and no fresh polling since early September.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:24.424526Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-shows-tight-race-for-new-mexicos-2nd-congressional-district/","https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRCC-NM-02-Survey-Memo-1.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENM2-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENM2-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00789404/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/new-mexico/federal/new-mexico-district-02/candidates?cycle=2026","https://sourcenm.com/2026/07/22/republican-challenger-narrowly-outraises-nm-us-rep-vasquez-but-trails-with-cash-on-hand/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/03/vasquez-d-cunningham-r-running-in-new-mexicos-2nd-district-one-of-23-trump-won-seats-democrats-are-defending/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NM02127/","https://newmexico.gop/2026/04/17/chairwoman-barela-releases-statement-on-president-trump-endorsing-greg-cunningham-for-new-mexicos-2nd-congressional-district/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENM2-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENM2-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NM-2?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9415,"yes_bid":0.941,"yes_ask":0.942,"last_price":0.942,"volume":17458.38,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:31.108449Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENM2-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENM2-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENM2-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NM-2?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0545,"yes_bid":0.047,"yes_ask":0.062,"last_price":0.061,"volume":33310.95,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:32.193209Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENM2-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Republican":0.14},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.28},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.42},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.28}},{"id":"nm-house-03-2026","title":"2026 New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District","state":"New Mexico","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T23:02:22.256837+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Teresa Leger Fernandez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Teresa_Leger_Fernandez_117th_Congress_portrait_2.jpg"},{"name":"Martin Ruben Zamora","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Martin_Ruben_Zamora.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Teresa Leger Fernandez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.81,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.81,"Republican":0.19},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez holds a clear advantage in a district that has leaned Democratic, backed by a large fundraising edge over Republican state Representative Martin Zamora. No public polling or prediction-market signals are logged for this race, so the size of her margin is unconfirmed.","takeaway":"Leger Fernandez is favored to keep this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Leger Fernandez is an incumbent in a district with a Democratic lean, and she has won her prior races here by comfortable margins.","She holds a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Zamora, who has raised roughly a third as much for the cycle.","Zamora, a state representative since 2019, is the Republican nominee in a district with a significant rural and conservative population."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Democratic lean and the incumbent's resource advantage outweigh the rural, conservative character of much of the district and Zamora's ethics-focused messaging, with no polling available to confirm the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T23:02:18.804140Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NM03102/","https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://sourcenm.com/2025/10/27/by-the-s-nm-dem-incumbents-show-big-lead-for-2026-national-mid-terms/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=1921149&default=candidate","https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/n-m-dems-keep-fundraising-035900400.html","https://sourcenm.com/briefs/by-the-s-nm-dem-incumbents-show-big-lead-for-2026-national-mid-terms/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.2},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.28},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.2}},{"id":"nm-senate-2026","title":"2026 New Mexico U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"New Mexico","state":"New Mexico","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:35:28.935190+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ben Ray Luján","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ben-Ray-Lujan.jpg"},{"name":"Larry E. Marker","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://larrymarker.com/wp-content/uploads/web-27.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ben Ray Luján","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Safe Democratic and gives Ben Ray Luján (Democratic) a 98% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 17 points. No head-to-head public poll between the current candidates was available, so the estimate rests on non-polling evidence.","takeaway":"Ben Ray Luján (Democratic) is favored, with a 98% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Safe Democratic (Ben Ray Luján (Democratic): 98% chance of winning).","Polling: 0 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:35:18.283204Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENM-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENM-26-R","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico","https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2026/03/09/nmgop-scrambles-to-qualify-a-write-in-against-ben-ray-lujan-who-is-he-and-how-does-that-work/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NM01186/","https://ballotpedia.org/Larry_Marker","https://larrymarker.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENM-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATENM-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Mexico?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.985,"yes_bid":0.977,"yes_ask":0.993,"last_price":0.993,"volume":21830.58,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:01.391467Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENM-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATENM-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATENM-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.014499999999999999,"yes_bid":0.011,"yes_ask":0.018,"last_price":0.018,"volume":14937.13,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:02.699550Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATENM-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.015},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.055}},{"id":"nv-governor-2026","title":"2026 Nevada Governor Election","office":"Governor of Nevada","jurisdiction":"Nevada","state":"Nevada","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:08:08.770963+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Lombardo","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/joelombardo.jpg"},{"name":"Aaron Ford","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Aaron_Ford.jpg"},{"name":"Danielle Ford","party":"No Political Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DanielleFord.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.5204,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.4693,"Independent":0.0001,"No Political Party":0.0102,"Republican":0.5204},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"high","rationale":"The race is a genuine toss-up: the newest likely-voter survey (Noble Predictive Insights, ended Sept. 26) has Lombardo up 2, while the Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV survey (ended Sept. 5) has Aaron Ford up 2, and Danielle Ford's 7% in the Noble poll leaves a meaningful bloc unsettled. Lombardo's incumbency and roughly $15 million raised against Ford's ~$3.7 million cash on hand give him a slight structural edge in a closely divided swing state.","takeaway":"Lombardo and Aaron Ford are locked in a toss-up, with the incumbent's money edge offsetting an unsettled polling picture.","key_reasons":["Recent polling is essentially a dead heat: Noble Predictive Insights has Lombardo +2 and Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV has Aaron Ford +2, with a large undecided bloc in the latest survey.","Lombardo carries incumbency plus a large fundraising advantage (roughly $15M raised and $9M cash on hand versus Ford's ~$3.7M), a modest structural edge in a swing state.","Danielle Ford's nonpartisan candidacy drew 7% in the latest survey, adding uncertainty about how the remaining vote breaks."],"uncertainty":"Whether Lombardo's incumbency and fundraising edge outweighs the split polling is unresolved, and Danielle Ford's 7% share in the latest survey leaves the outcome genuinely open.","based_on_poll_count":8,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:08:01.185992Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNV-26-R","https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/nevada/","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/three-new-polls-show-lombardo-expanding-lead-over-ford-in-nevada-governors-race/","https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nvgov-lombardo-keeps-pace-with-ford-as-undecideds-hold-the-balance","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/three-new-polls-show-lombardo-expanding-lead-over-ford-in-nevada-governors-race","https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/nevada","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/lombardo-ford-tied-in-nevada-governors-race-dem-poll-shows","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNV-26-D","https://www.opensecrets.org/search?field=recip&q=joe+lombardo&type=donors","https://www.joelombardofornv.com/governor-lombardo-announces-recordbreaking-15-million-cashonhand","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/lombardos-2025-campaign-fundraising-heavily-reliant-on-donors-using-loophole-to-give-more","https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/sep/06/joe-lombardo-and-aaron-ford-split-over-economic-an/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/what-we-learned-from-nevadas-latest-campaign-finance-reports","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/which-nevada-candidates-have-raised-the-most-money-so-far-in-2026","https://www.fordfornevada.com/news/ford-raises-record-breaking-haul-in-nevada-governor-race","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/aaron-d-ford/contributors?cycle=2018&id=6508433","https://www.8newsnow.com/news/politics/ford-reports-1-5-million-raised-in-challenge-for-governors-seat-lombardo-yet-to-file/","https://www.nvsos.gov/SOSCandidateServices/AnonymousAccess/CEFDSearchUU/CandidateDetails.aspx?o=hpTcalFLGvNqT72aBL0vFg%253d%253d","https://www.nvsos.gov/SOSCandidateServices/AnonymousAccess/ViewCCEReport.aspx?syn=2UiQ3aUsJVoUbQmzKLcMkA%253d%253d","https://nevadacurrent.com/2024/10/03/former-ccsd-trustee-challenges-incumbent-in-nevada-state-board-of-education-race/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNV-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNV-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.515,"yes_bid":0.51,"yes_ask":0.52,"last_price":0.52,"volume":929470.81,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:12.705282Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNV-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNV-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNV-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.485,"yes_bid":0.48,"yes_ask":0.49,"last_price":0.49,"volume":392921.64,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:55:56.429955Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNV-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.51,"Democratic":0.48,"No Political Party":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.53,"Democratic":0.46,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.51,"Democratic":0.46,"No Political Party":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"nv-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Nevada's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nevada's 1st Congressional District","state":"Nevada","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:55.626427+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dina Titus","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/Dina_Titus_official_photo_%281%29.jpg"},{"name":"Carrie Buck","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Carrie_Buck.jpg"},{"name":"Steven St John","party":"No Political Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/New-version-1c_20260711_165417_31200_1.png"},{"name":"Bobby Khan","party":"No Political Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bobby_Khan_2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dina Titus","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8682,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8682,"No Political Party":0.0132,"Republican":0.1186},"margin_estimate":6,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Seven-term incumbent Dina Titus holds a clear edge in a district that has repeatedly elected her, reinforced by a cash-on-hand advantage ($1.3M vs. $626K) and a strongly Democratic prediction-market price. Republican state Senator Carrie Buck has outraised Titus for three consecutive quarters with national party backing, and the district's narrow 2024 presidential result keeps the race more competitive than a typical incumbent hold.","takeaway":"Dina Titus is favored to hold Nevada's 1st District, though a narrow 2024 presidential margin and Buck's fundraising keep an upset possible.","key_reasons":["Titus's long incumbency in a district she has carried even in competitive cycles, plus a cash-on-hand edge over Buck ($1.3M vs. $626K).","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 96% (Kalshi HOUSENV1-26-D), with the Republican contract near 3%.","Buck's three-quarter fundraising lead, NRCC program placement and Trump endorsement, set against a district Trump carried only 50.2-48.0 in 2024, make an upset plausible but not the base case."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and the district's narrow 2024 presidential margin combined with Buck's fundraising momentum means the contest could tighten; the market read is also a mid-September snapshot.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:46.691894Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV1-26-R","https://www.nvsos.gov/elections/election-information/2026-election-information/2026-candidate-public-media-information","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NV03036/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00004549&cycle=2026","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/nevada-democrats-campaign-coffers-stuffed-with-out-of-state-cash-and-actblue-funds-amid-fraud-probes/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/what-we-learned-from-nevadas-latest-campaign-finance-reports","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/carrie-buck-outraises-rep-dina-titus-for-the-second-time-in-nv-1/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NV01331/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00914804/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/what-stood-out-in-nevadas-latest-campaign-finance-reports","https://chaplainstevenstjohnforcongress.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NV/01/2026/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/steven-st-john/about","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NV01315/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00906206/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevadas-house-incumbents-face-money-threat-from-self-funders-with-one-exception"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENV1-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.957,"yes_bid":0.942,"yes_ask":0.972,"last_price":0.964,"volume":6731.63,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:38.599914Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENV1-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NV-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.033,"yes_bid":0.007,"yes_ask":0.059,"last_price":0.028,"volume":10784.71,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:39.745177Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.09,"No Political Party":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.085,"No Political Party":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.16,"No Political Party":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"nv-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Nevada's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nevada's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Nevada","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:42.692160+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Teresa Benitez-Thompson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TeresaBenitezThompson.jpg"},{"name":"David Flippo","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Flippo_2025.jpeg"},{"name":"Lynn Chapman","party":"Independent American","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.ivoterguide.com/candidates/080219.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"David Flippo","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.6251,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.6251,"Democratic":0.3522,"Independent American":0.0227},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"The open seat's Republican-leaning fundamentals — an R+7 district that President Trump carried by 14 points in 2024 and that has never elected a Democrat — give David Flippo a narrow edge. The polling is close and mixed: Strategies 360 (ended Aug. 26) showed Flippo +3, GBAO (ended Sept. 3) showed Teresa Benitez-Thompson +1, and Wedgewood Polls (ended July 13) showed Benitez-Thompson +2.","takeaway":"Republicans are narrowly favored to win this open northern Nevada seat, though close, mixed polling leaves the race competitive.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals favor the GOP: an R+7 seat that Trump carried by 14 points in 2024 and that no Democrat has ever represented.","Polling is tight and mixed, with Strategies 360 showing Flippo +3, GBAO showing Benitez-Thompson +1, and Wedgewood Polls showing Benitez-Thompson +2 — no survey gives either candidate a comfortable lead.","Flippo's self-funding (about $1.645 million in candidate loans through June 30, 2026) plus Trump's endorsement and outside-group spending give him a structural resource edge in a red-leaning open seat."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Republican lean outweighs a tight polling picture in which the two most recent surveys split between a 3-point Flippo lead and a 1-point Benitez-Thompson lead, with Chapman's 14% share in the GBAO survey adding further volatility.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:38.717939Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.soulsandliberty.com/political-roundup-saturday-september-12-2026/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/does-teresa-benitez-thompson-stand-a-chance-in-deep-red-northern-nevada","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/nevada-us-house-2-polls-2026.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NV02362/","https://nevadacurrent.com/2026/07/20/cd2-fundraising-reports-suggest-momentum-may-be-on-democrats-side/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6508382&default=candidate","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NV04108/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/we-finally-have-david-flippos-financial-disclosure-heres-what-we-found","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/which-nevada-candidates-have-raised-the-most-money-so-far-in-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidates/?q=Lynn%20Chapman&election_year=2026","https://www.nvsos.gov/elections/election-information/2026-election-information/2026-candidate-public-media-information","https://www.washoecounty.gov/voters/information/index.php"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.67,"Democratic":0.31,"Independent American":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.23,"Republican":0.76,"Independent American":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.42,"Republican":0.55,"Independent American":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.21}},{"id":"nv-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Nevada's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nevada's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Nevada","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:52.683749+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Susie Lee","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Susie_Lee.jpg"},{"name":"Marty O'Donnell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://martyforcongress.vote/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/marty-sharegraphic.png"},{"name":"Jon Kamerath","party":"Independent American","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Susie Lee","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7999,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7999,"Independent American":0.0125,"Republican":0.1876},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Lee combines incumbency, a district that has leaned her way in recent cycles, and a large cash-on-hand advantage ($3.3 million) over a first-time Republican nominee whose $4.1 million raised is dominated by a $3 million personal loan and only about $256,000 in contributions. With no public district-level general-election polling, the race rests on that structural advantage rather than on measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Incumbent Susie Lee holds a meaningful but not decisive edge in Nevada's most competitive House seat.","key_reasons":["Lee is the incumbent in a district she carried by roughly 2.8 points in 2024, and she entered the general election with about $3.3 million cash on hand and no debt.","O'Donnell's fundraising is almost entirely self-funded — a $3 million personal loan against roughly $256,000 in contributions — indicating a thin donor base in a district that remains genuinely competitive.","No public district-level general-election polling exists, so the read relies on incumbency, finance and district history rather than on vote-preference data."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Lee's incumbency and cash advantage outweigh the district's narrow Republican tilt at the presidential level and heavy outside spending, with no public district-level general-election polling available.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:42.785878Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV3-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/susie-lee/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1047187","https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/jul/15/southern-nevada-congressional-candidates-approach/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-candidates-got-millions-in-campaign-donations-in-2026-who-is-backing-them","https://ballotpedia.org/Susie_Lee","https://www.inkl.com/news/three-candidates-are-running-in-nevadas-3rd-district-where-the-last-two-elections-were-decided-by-fewer-than-four-points","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NV03204/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/want-to-run-for-congress-in-nevada-it-pays-to-be-rich","https://ballotpedia.org/Marty_O%27Donnell_(Nevada)","https://ballotpedia.org/Jon_Kamerath"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENV3-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NV-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9359999999999999,"yes_bid":0.928,"yes_ask":0.944,"last_price":0.928,"volume":9346.53,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:46.190309Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENV3-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NV-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0615,"yes_bid":0.053,"yes_ask":0.07,"last_price":0.052,"volume":6940.22,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:04:06.378230Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.12,"Independent American":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.15,"Independent American":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.3,"Independent American":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.19}},{"id":"nv-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Nevada's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Nevada's 4th Congressional District","state":"Nevada","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T14:04:48.003504+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Steven Horsford","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steven_Horsford.jpg"},{"name":"Cody Whipple","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cody_Whipple_20250808_052823.png"},{"name":"Russell Best","party":"Independent American","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Russell_Best.png"},{"name":"William Johnson","party":"No Political Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Steven Horsford","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.92,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Independent American":0.005,"No Political Party":0.005,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford, who has held this seat since 2019, combines a large fundraising advantage (~$3.35M raised vs. Cody Whipple's ~$885K, much of it self-funded with committee debt) with a district that leans Democratic even in strong Republican years. No public polling exists, but prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%, consistent with a clear but not overwhelming edge.","takeaway":"Horsford is clearly favored to hold this purple-leaning North Las Vegas seat, though the absence of district polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Horsford has held this North Las Vegas seat since 2019 and won it by roughly five points even in the strong-Republican 2024 cycle, indicating a durable Democratic lean.","Horsford's ~$3.35M raised dwarfs Whipple's ~$885K, which included ~$320K of self-funding and left ~$430K in committee debt, limiting the challenger's ability to close the gap.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%, and the minor-party candidates on the ballot have historically drawn only low-single-digit shares."],"uncertainty":"No public district polling exists and the market pricing is from mid-September with modest volume, so a national midterm environment favoring Republicans could tighten a race that otherwise looks comfortably Democratic.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T14:04:40.920927Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV4-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV4-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NV04011/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/steven-horsford/donors","https://californiaglobe.com/fr/nevada-democrats-campaign-coffers-stuffed-with-out-of-state-cash-and-actblue-funds-amid-fraud-probes/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NV04111/","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/what-we-learned-from-nevadas-latest-campaign-finance-reports","https://www.iapn.org/general-5","https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_Best","https://www.ballotready.org/people/russell-best","https://ballotpedia.org/William_Johnson_(Nevada)","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-nv-4"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV4-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENV4-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NV-4?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9624999999999999,"yes_bid":0.955,"yes_ask":0.97,"last_price":0.97,"volume":6292.27,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:50.471101Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV4-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENV4-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENV4-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NV-4?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.01,"yes_bid":0.006,"yes_ask":0.014,"last_price":0.067,"volume":4449.64,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:34:51.590833Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENV4-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.07,"Independent American":0.005,"No Political Party":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.05,"Independent American":0.006,"No Political Party":0.004},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.07,"Independent American":0.005,"No Political Party":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"ny-04-house-2026","title":"2026 New York's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 4th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:48.163445+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Laura Gillen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/95/Gillen_Laura_119th_Congress_%28cropped2%29.jpg"},{"name":"Jeanine Driscoll","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/driscolljeanine_2026-08-12_113211.jpg"},{"name":"Blay Tarnoff","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BT-photo-head_20260816_184955_32767_1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Laura Gillen","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8481,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8481,"Libertarian":0.0101,"Republican":0.1418},"margin_estimate":5.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a wide cash advantage and won this Nassau County seat in 2024, and prediction markets price Democrats near 92% to keep it. Republican Jeanine Driscoll has a presidential endorsement and expected national GOP-aligned spending behind her, but with no public polling the race is not a lock.","takeaway":"Gillen is favored to hold this competitive Nassau County seat, buoyed by incumbency and a large fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Gillen, the incumbent, reported roughly $3.84 million cash on hand through June 30 versus about $226,274 for Driscoll, a large resource gap in a costly Long Island media market.","Gillen won this swing seat in 2024 and the district has recently tilted Democratic, giving her a narrow but real base advantage.","Kalshi markets price a Democratic win at about 92%, though that signal is unconfirmed by any public polling and Republican-aligned outside spending is expected to boost Driscoll."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, so the forecast rests on incumbency, fundraising and market signals; the seat flipped in each of the last two cycles, and expected Republican-aligned outside spending plus Driscoll's presidential endorsement could narrow the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:38.000233Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY4-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY4-26-R","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-york-us-house-4-polls-2026.html","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/new-york/federal/new-york-district-04/summary?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY04244/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/laura-gillen","https://politicsny.com/2026/08/11/gillen-enters-fall-with-3-8m-war-chest-as-driscoll-builds-campaign/","https://longisland.news12.com/2026/07/15/nrcc-adds-jeanine-driscoll-to-maga-majority-program-in-challenge-to-rep-laura-gillen/33ypKIafkSmb5hkSFltmsR","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY04237/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NY"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY4-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY4-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9195,"yes_bid":0.915,"yes_ask":0.924,"last_price":0.922,"volume":17181.2,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:05.732009Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY4-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY4-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY4-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NY-4?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.088,"yes_bid":0.082,"yes_ask":0.094,"last_price":0.099,"volume":48742.15,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:06.809529Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY4-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.12,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.14,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.17,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ny-governor-2026","title":"2026 New York Governor Election","office":"Governor of New York","jurisdiction":"New York","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:02:25.830398+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kathy Hochul","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ad05paDl_400x400.jpg"},{"name":"Bruce Blakeman","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bruce_Blakeman.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kathy Hochul","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":11,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Hochul leads by 9 to 19 points in the two September likely-voter surveys, and New York's strong Democratic lean, her incumbency and a large fundraising edge make her a clear favorite. Blakeman's improved summer standing and Hochul's narrow 2022 win keep a small upset path open.","takeaway":"Hochul is clearly favored in New York, leading Blakeman by 9 to 19 points in September polling.","key_reasons":["Two September likely-voter polls show Hochul ahead by 9 points (Siena 50-41) and 19 points (Quinnipiac 58-39), consistent with her leads across the cycle.","New York is a strongly Democratic state that has not elected a Republican statewide since 2002, and Hochul is the incumbent with a substantial cash advantage.","Well-traded prediction markets price a Democratic win near 95%, reinforcing the polling picture."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether midterm headwinds and Hochul's narrow 2022 margin can narrow a 9-to-19-point polling lead, with the wide spread between the two September surveys adding uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-02T04:19:27.769955Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3967","https://sri.siena.edu/2026/06/25/hochul-favorability-approval-ratings-edge-up-as-does-her-general-election-lead-over-blakeman-now-52-32-from-49-33/","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019d-407c-d107-a19d-e6ff72210000","https://nypost.com/2026/07/06/us-news/nyc-ny-state-politics-live-updates-on-governors-race-more/","https://www.cityandstateny.com/prediction-markets/polls","https://sri.siena.edu/2026/08/12/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-49-blakeman-39/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNY-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNY-26-R","https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/Contributions/Contributions","https://www.lohud.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/17/new-york-governors-race-latest-campaign-fundraising-totals/90940322007/","https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/01/hochul-has-20-million-war-chest-she-campaigns-reelection/410762/","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook-pm/2026/04/14/albanys-influence-wars-00871745","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=4758179","https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/07/blakeman-reports-extra-16-million-raised-amended-campaign-filing/414982/","https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/07/blakeman-fundraising-numbers-much-lower-he-initially-touted/414804/","https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2026/04/29/blakeman-campaign-finance-data-","https://www.nycourts.gov/reporter/current/3dseries/2026/2026_03347.shtml","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2026/09/29/hochul-blakeman-tax-relief","https://www.lohud.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/07/blakeman-campaign-spent-10-5m-had-178k-left-in-ny-governors-race/92122417007/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNY-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNY-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.947,"yes_bid":0.944,"yes_ask":0.95,"last_price":0.95,"volume":416283.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:16.697458Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNY-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYNY-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYNY-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.053500000000000006,"yes_bid":0.049,"yes_ask":0.058,"last_price":0.057,"volume":1334001.17,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:17.663789Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYNY-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"ny-house-01-2026","title":"2026 New York's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 1st Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T12:06:22.898013+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nicholas J. LaLota","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/NickLaLota24.jpg"},{"name":"Christopher Gallant","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher_Gallant.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nicholas J. LaLota","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.7606,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.2394,"Republican":0.7606},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Nicholas J. LaLota holds the structural advantages of a district that has trended Republican in recent presidential cycles, two prior double-digit wins, and a large financial edge over Democratic nominee Christopher Gallant. The only listed general-election poll, a Public Policy Polling survey for House Majority PAC that ended Dec. 11, 2025, put LaLota ahead 41-38 with a substantial undecided share, leaving room for a competitive race but not enough evidence to displace the incumbent's advantage.","takeaway":"LaLota is favored to hold NY-01, though a thin and dated polling record keeps the race short of a lock.","key_reasons":["LaLota is the incumbent in a Republican-leaning eastern Long Island district that has moved toward Republicans in recent presidential cycles, and he has won the seat twice.","LaLota's campaign reported roughly $3.33M cash on hand as of June 30, 2026, against about $172K for Gallant, a major resource edge in an expensive Long Island media market.","The single listed general-election poll, Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC (ended Dec. 11, 2025), showed LaLota 41% to Gallant 38% with many voters undecided, and no newer public survey was identified."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether LaLota's incumbency, district lean and cash advantage outweigh a single, months-old poll showing a three-point margin with a large undecided bloc and no newer public polling to confirm the trend.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T12:06:17.913403Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/new-hmp-polling-shows-nick-lalota-vulnerable-in-november","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY01190/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/nick-lalota/summary","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/nick-lalota","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NY","https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/house-fundraising-fedn8he6","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY01159/","https://messengerpapers.com/2026/06/chris-gallant-nick-lalota-ny-01/","https://themidtermproject.org/candidates/gallant-christopher"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.74,"Democratic":0.26},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"ny-house-02-2026","title":"2026 New York's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 2nd Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T15:10:44.008287+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Andrew Garbarino","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrew_Garbarino.jpg"},{"name":"Patrick Halpin","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b9/Patrick_Halpin_%28cropped%29.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Andrew Garbarino","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.85,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.15,"Republican":0.85},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Garbarino is the incumbent in a Republican-leaning South Shore Long Island district and holds a roughly $3.4 million-to-$89,000 cash-on-hand advantage, with no public polling showing any shift. Halpin's county-executive record and attacks on disaster aid and immigration give Democrats a credible case, but the structural and financial gaps make a Republican hold the clear baseline.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold New York's 2nd District, anchored by Garbarino's incumbency and financial edge.","key_reasons":["Incumbent Republican in a district with an R+6 partisan lean and Likely/Solid Republican nonpartisan ratings","Garbarino's commanding financial edge (~$3.4M vs ~$89K cash on hand as of June 30, 2026)","No public polling exists, so the race is assessed on structural factors that favor the incumbent"],"uncertainty":"With no public polling and a low-confidence read, the key question is whether Halpin's local-government profile and disaster-aid and immigration attacks can meaningfully narrow the gap in a district that leans Republican.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:19:52.623776Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cityandstateny.com/prediction-markets/races/ny-02-house","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY02234/","https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/house-fundraising-fedn8he6","https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/congress-campaign-contributions-h2e9n3rf","https://www.southshorepress.com/national/reps-lalota-garbarino-head-toward-november-with-millions-a2e24329","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/07/30/reaching-for-a-reach-on-long-island-01016756","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY02140/","https://www.newsday.com/opinion/the-point/the-point-newsday-trump-blakeman-lipetri-hach-funds-garbarino-lalota-gillen-v8x9s6ez","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ny-2/compare/andrew-garbarino-vs-patrick-halpin"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.83,"Democratic":0.17},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.85,"Democratic":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"ny-house-03-2026","title":"2026 New York's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 3rd Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T08:08:59.897969+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Suozzi","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Suozzi.jpg"},{"name":"Michael LiPetri Jr.","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MichaelLiPetri.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom Suozzi","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.84,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"margin_estimate":5.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Tom Suozzi enters the general with a large fundraising and cash-on-hand edge and a demonstrated win in this swing district, giving him a clear advantage. Republican Michael LiPetri Jr. remains a credible challenger backed by more than $11 million in outside spending, but no public polling exists to confirm the size of the Democratic lead.","takeaway":"Suozzi is clearly favored to hold this competitive North Shore seat, though the absence of public polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Suozzi is the incumbent and won this seat in 2024 with 51.8%, showing a proven fit in a competitive district.","Suozzi holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage ($5.68M vs roughly $724K), outweighing heavy Republican outside spending.","Suozzi's bipartisan profile as Problem Solvers Caucus co-chair and his affordability and SALT focus match a swing North Shore district that has stayed closely divided."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the general election exists, so the race turns on whether Suozzi's incumbency, cash advantage and district fit outweigh more than $11 million in Republican outside spending and a prior narrow 51.8% result.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T08:08:55.728493Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://elections.ny.gov/certification-november-3-2026-general-election","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY3-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY03247/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.longislandpress.com/2026/08/10/suozzi-lipetri-fundraising/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/thomas-suozzi-ny","https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/house-fundraising-fedn8he6","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/new-york/federal/new-york-district-03/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY03247/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY02267/","https://lilifepolitics.com/news/politics/congressional-challenger-raises-over-1m/","https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/elections/suozzi-lipetri-n98r4obr"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY3-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9,"yes_bid":0.88,"yes_ask":0.92,"last_price":0.9,"volume":57872.03,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:01.132239Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY3-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NY-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.095,"yes_bid":0.07,"yes_ask":0.12,"last_price":0.1,"volume":7465.63,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:02.246349Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"ny-house-05-2026","title":"2026 New York's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 5th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T08:41:04.766419+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gregory Meeks","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Gregory_Meeks%2C_official_portrait%2C_115th_congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"George Marsh","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gregory Meeks","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Gregory Meeks has represented this heavily Democratic southeast Queens district for 28 years, and the seat has not elected a Republican in decades; George Marsh reports no campaign fundraising and no public legislative record. With zero public polling, the district's deep partisan lean and strong incumbency still make a Democratic hold overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T08:40:53.030781Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00430991/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY06048/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/gregory-meeks/summary","https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/meet-the-banking-caucus-wall-streets-secret-weapon-in-washington/","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Republican_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-06-2026","title":"2026 New York's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 6th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:03:07.714648+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Grace Meng","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6601bf96339b361a24236c82/1711390619249-NU9NO32YKP96CKGG9JZ0/Meng-Header-Dark-Blue3.jpg"},{"name":"Joseph Chou","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joseph_Chou_20240809_072826.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Grace Meng","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.88,"Republican":0.12},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Seven-term incumbent Grace Meng holds a commanding resource advantage — roughly $2.03 million raised and $1.03 million cash on hand versus about $2,600 in current-cycle receipts for Joseph Chou — in a district that leans clearly Democratic. The main counterweight is the district's roughly 24-point swing toward Donald Trump in 2024, which keeps this short of a certainty despite the lopsided fundamentals.","takeaway":"Meng is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning Queens seat, though the district's 2024 rightward swing leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Meng is a seven-term incumbent who won the June 2026 Democratic primary with about 57% and has held the seat since 2013, giving her a large name-recognition and organizational edge.","The fundraising gap is enormous: about $2.03 million raised and $1.03 million cash on hand for Meng versus roughly $2,600 in current-cycle receipts for Chou, who reports self-funding.","The district's Democratic lean and Chou's thin prior showings — 1.6% here in 2024 and 4.4% in a 2025 city council bid — point to a comfortable hold, tempered by the district's sharp 2024 shift toward Trump."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and the district's roughly 24-point swing toward Trump in 2024, including movement among Asian American voters, is the main reason the outcome is not treated as certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:03:03.363507Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY06116/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/grace-meng/summary","https://www.queensbuzz.com/article/1144/will-chuck-park-defeat-grace-meng-in-the-nys-congressional-primary","https://queenseagle.com/all/2026/3/31/meng-draws-in-more-support-for-reelection-bid","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY06047/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00872333/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joseph-chou/donors","https://www.timesunion.com/projects/2024/new-york-campaign-finance/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.15}},{"id":"ny-house-07-2026","title":"2026 New York's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 7th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:07:40.156216+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Claire Valdez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ClaireValdez2025.jpg"},{"name":"Melvin Rivera","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MelvinRivera.png"},{"name":"Priscilla Ghaznavi","party":"Our Future Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1731224335/me_400x400.jpg"},{"name":"Antonio Reynoso","party":"Working Families Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Claire Valdez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"NY-07 is a heavily Democratic open seat, and Valdez won the June Democratic primary decisively (55.9%, a 21-point margin over Reynoso), leaving her as the clear general-election favorite. The Republican nominee advanced without appearing on the primary ballot, and no general-election polling exists to challenge the district's strong Democratic fundamentals.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T08:48:15.251483Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-city-2026-congressional-polling-ny-07-ny-10-ny-12/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY07214/","https://hellgatenyc.com/fundraising-look-at-reynoso-won-valdez-commie-corridor/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=60030795&default=candidate","https://melvinforcongress.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY07255/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6NY07255/1957716/","https://ballotpedia.org/Priscilla_Ghaznavi","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY07164/","https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/06/mysterious-pro-reynoso-super-pac-funded-teachers-union-not-aipac/414238/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-08-2026","title":"2026 New York's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 8th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T08:39:48.738963+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Hakeem Jeffries","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/Rep-Hakeem-Jeffries-Official-Portrait_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Lewis Mizrahi","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-20260117-WA0002_20260813_173322_32663_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Hakeem Jeffries","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":50,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"New York's 8th district is overwhelmingly Democratic, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is the incumbent with roughly $14.9 million raised, facing a Republican opponent with no reported campaign finance or public profile. Both primaries were canceled, leaving a structurally lopsided general election matchup.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T08:36:39.546348Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY10092/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00503052/","https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/hakeem-jeffries-medicare-for-all/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=13009236&default=candidate","https://ballotpedia.org/Lewis_Mizrahi","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.thewellnews.com/2026-elections/little-known-candidates-take-aim-at-house-leaders-in-midterm-showdown/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-09-2026","title":"2026 New York's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 9th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T08:42:31.638113+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Yvette Clarke","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/yclarke.jpg"},{"name":"Joel Anabilah-Azumah","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/May242020355AM_80182230_CampaignHeadshot.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Yvette Clarke","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"New York's 9th District carries a D+22 Cook PVI and is heavily Democratic, making incumbent Yvette Clarke an overwhelming general-election favorite after winning the June primary with roughly 69%. The Republican nominee advanced uncontested and faces a steep partisan disadvantage in this Brooklyn-based seat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T13:58:03.537954Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY11138/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/yvette-clarke/us_congress/summary?mpid=1050009","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/yvette-clarke-ny","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY09145/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ny-9/compare/joel-anabilah-azumah-vs-yvette-clarke"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-10-2026","title":"2026 New York's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 10th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T16:05:27.765841+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brad Lander","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BradLander2025Mayor.jpg"},{"name":"Jennifer Moore","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brad Lander","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":57,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"New York's 10th is a D+32 district, among the most Democratic in the country, and Democratic nominee Brad Lander enters the general election with a decisive primary win, roughly $2.46M raised, and strong name recognition from citywide office. Republican Jennifer Moore is a first-time candidate with no reported fundraising or prior elected record, making a GOP upset extraordinarily unlikely.","takeaway":"Democrats are overwhelming favorites to hold New York's 10th, with Brad Lander heavily favored over Jennifer Moore.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals: D+32 PVI makes this one of the safest Democratic seats in the country.","Lander's strength: decisive primary win over incumbent Goldman, roughly $2.46M raised, and recent labor and environmental endorsements.","Moore's profile: first-time Republican candidate with no reported fundraising and no prior elected record."],"uncertainty":"No general-election polling exists for this race, and Moore's late entry with no public finance data leaves the final margin uncertain even though the outcome is not.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T22:32:55.702632Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-york-us-house-10-polls-2026.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY10176/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brad-lander/donors","https://legis1.com/news/dan-goldman-ny-10-fundraising-the-money-ny-10s","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00930123/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY10218/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NY"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":60,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.995,"Republican":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":57,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":55,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.015}},{"id":"ny-house-11-2026","title":"2026 New York's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 11th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:02:55.588990+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nicole Malliotakis","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/Congresswoman_Nicole_Malliotakis.jpg"},{"name":"Michael DeCillis","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/mdecillis.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nicole Malliotakis","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8772,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1228,"Republican":0.8772},"margin_estimate":12.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Malliotakis combines incumbency, roughly $2.75 million raised against DeCillis's roughly $67,600, and a district that has trended conservative and is New York City's only Republican-held House seat. No public polling is logged for this matchup, so the race turns on those structural advantages versus the possibility of a Democratic midterm environment and DeCillis's public-service profile.","takeaway":"Malliotakis is clearly favored to retain New York's 11th District, buoyed by incumbency, a large funding edge, and a conservative-leaning seat.","key_reasons":["Incumbency in a seat that has trended conservative and is the only Republican-held House district in New York City.","A wide resource gap: about $2.75 million raised by Malliotakis versus about $67,600 by DeCillis, with no public polling to suggest a close contest.","DeCillis's grassroots-funded campaign and a possible Democratic midterm environment keep a narrow upset path open, but his lack of prior office and minimal funding make a flip unlikely."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this matchup, so the forecast rests on incumbency, fundraising and district lean; a Democratic midterm environment or an under-measured DeCillis surge could tighten the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:02:52.168878Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY11078/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nicole-malliotakis/donors","https://rollcall.com/2023/02/10/ideological-regional-diversity-hallmarks-of-tax-panels-frosh/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/nicole-malliotakis/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY11265/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michael-decillis","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/mikedecillis0302"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.1},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.85,"Democratic":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"ny-house-12-2026","title":"2026 New York's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 12th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T03:55:14.569253+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Micah Lasher","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MicahLasher2025.jpg"},{"name":"Caroline Shinkle","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Caroline_Shinkle_20260214_032757.jpg"},{"name":"Wilneida Negron","party":"For All of Us Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Wilneida_Negron_20251205_020126.jpg"},{"name":"Karen Ortiz","party":"Karen Ortiz Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Karen_Ortiz_20251126_085634.jpeg"},{"name":"Robb Huhn","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Lucian Wintrich","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lucian_Wintrich_2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Micah Lasher","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Independent":0.003,"Other":0.002},"margin_estimate":55,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NY-12 is the most Democratic district in New York (Cook PVI D+33), and the general election is effectively a formality after the June 23 Democratic primary, which Lasher won with 39.1% in a crowded field. The Republican nominee, Caroline Shinkle, runs a modestly funded operation in a seat Republicans have not seriously contested, and no general-election matchup polling exists to suggest otherwise.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T03:54:41.032473Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-city-2026-congressional-polling-ny-07-ny-10-ny-12/","https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/ny12-primary-undecided-bores-schlossberg-lasher","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00918565/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/micah-lasher/donors","https://legis1.com/news/nadler-retirement-replacement-the-battle-for-new","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY12404/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/new-york-district-12-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00927095/","https://www.wilneidany12.com/llm-info","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY12297/","https://www.westsiderag.com/2026/03/12/meet-karen-ortiz-an-independent-candidate-running-to-represent-the-uws-in-congress","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY12370/","https://ballotpedia.org/Robb_Huhn","https://www.westsiderag.com/2026/06/12/early-voting-on-the-uws-begins-this-weekend-find-your-poll-site-see-whos-on-the-ballot","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY12305/","https://ballotpedia.org/Lucian_Wintrich"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-13-2026","title":"2026 New York's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 13th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:02:37.253167+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Darializa Avila Chevalier","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Darializa_Chevalier_20260301_012700.jpg"},{"name":"Manual Williams","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JomoWilliams.jpeg"},{"name":"Candace Niles","party":"Voice Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://patch.com/img/cdn20/users/26929305/20260611/013412/styles/patch_image/public/portrait-1-1___11133345764.jpg"},{"name":"Bob Cohen","party":"Working Families Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bob_Cohen_NY_Congress.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Darializa Avila Chevalier","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":50,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"NY-13 spans Harlem, Upper Manhattan, and the Northwest Bronx and is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, making the Democratic nominee overwhelmingly favored in November. Avila Chevalier's primary win over five-term incumbent Espaillat settled the only competitive contest in the seat, and no general-election polling or market signals suggest any Republican or third-party threat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:02:24.512301Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Manual_Williams","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NY/13","https://ballotpedia.org/Darializa_Avila_Chevalier","https://nypost.com/2026/06/16/us-news/over-60-of-powered-by-the-people-dsa-congressional-candidate-350000-fundraising-haul-comes-from-out-of-state/","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/nyregion/aipac-spending-campaign-super-pac.html","https://www.darializaforcongress.com/facts","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY13287/","https://ballotpedia.org/Candace_Niles","https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Cohen"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-14-2026","title":"2026 New York's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"New York's 14th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:12:32.623813+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez.jpg"},{"name":"Diamant Hysenaj","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DiamantHysenaj.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez represents a heavily Democratic Bronx/Queens district where she won 68.9% in 2024 and took 86.9% in the June 2026 primary. Her massive fundraising advantage (~$32.6M vs. ~$343K) and the district's strong partisan lean make Republican challenger Diamant Hysenaj a clear underdog despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:12:21.125317Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY15148/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/alexandria-ocasio-cortez/summary?cid=N00041162","https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/26/politics/aoc-ocasio-cortez-fundraising-democrats","https://bushwickdaily.com/news/aoc-is-sitting-on-nearly-16-million-her-two-new-primary-challengers-have-about-8000-and-4000/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44044922","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY14251/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-15-2026","title":"2026 New York's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 15th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-31T03:55:27.604003+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ritchie Torres","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ritchie-Torres.jpg"},{"name":"Stylo Sapaskis","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stylo_Sapaskis.jpeg"},{"name":"Gonzalo Duran","party":"Conservative","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/gduran.jpeg"},{"name":"Andre Easton","party":"Party for Socialism and Liberation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andre_Easton_20251025_051102.png"},{"name":"Jose Vega","party":"Speak The Truth Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jose_Vega_2025.JPEG"},{"name":"John Maynard Harris","party":"What The H.E.C. Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ritchie Torres","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NY-15 is one of the most Democratic districts in the nation (D+50 PVI), and incumbent Ritchie Torres — who won the June 2026 primary with 71.9% and holds roughly $14M cash on hand — faces a perennial Republican challenger and minor-party candidates with no reported fundraising. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's extreme partisan lean, incumbency, and overwhelming resource advantage, all pointing to a Torres landslide.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T23:18:01.144978Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY15160/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/ritchie-torres-ny","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Fundraising+Update%3A+Representative+Ritchie+Torres+just+disclosed+%24383.2K+of+new+fundraising","https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/22/gop-retains-cash-lead-ahead-midterms-democrats-narrowed-gap/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/ritchie-torres/summary?cid=N00044346","https://legilist.com/campaign-finance/T000486/2024","https://www.trackaipac.com/congress","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/ritchie-torres/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1120222","https://www.nyccfb.info/vsapps/WebForm_Finance_Summary.aspx?as_election_cycle=2025","https://www.cityandstateny.com/prediction-markets/candidates/stylo-sapaskis","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NY/15/2026/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NY","https://results.elections.ny.gov/candidate/51","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY15147/","https://www.gonzaloduran.nyc/gonzalo-duran-vice-chairman-of-the-bronx-conservative-party/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/andre-easton/donors","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6NY15167/1913956/","https://ballotpedia.org/Andre_Easton","https://ballotpedia.org/Jose_Vega","https://ballotpedia.org/John_Maynard_Harris","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY15217/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-16-2026","title":"2026 New York's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 16th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T21:43:10.220543+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"George Latimer","party":"Democratic Party","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/George_Latimer.jpg"},{"name":"Joseph J. Cinquemani","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JosephCinquemani2026_2026-06-24_155830.jpg"},{"name":"John Franklin Wilson IV","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"George Latimer","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic Party","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"NY-16's D+18 partisan lean and Latimer's unopposed primary path make him a heavy favorite against a Republican attorney and a lightly funded independent. No public polling exists, but the district's deep Democratic tilt and weak opposition field leave no realistic path to a Republican or independent win.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T21:29:09.576649Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY16087/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/george-latimer/donors","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/george-latimer","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/04/us/politics/aipac-israel-funds-spending.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00944686/","https://thecandidate.com/parties/republican","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joseph-cinquemani","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6NY16165/1944312/","https://ballotpedia.org/John_Franklin_Wilson_IV"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-17-2026","title":"2026 New York's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 17th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:05:54.914848+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Lawler","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/Rep._Mike_Lawler_official_photo.jpg/250px-Rep._Mike_Lawler_official_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Cait Conley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cait_Conley_20250505_055506.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Cait Conley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.55,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.45},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NY-17 is a genuine toss-up that tilts slightly Democratic: the two newest likely-voter surveys split, with Emerson College/PIX11 showing Conley +2 and the Lawler-campaign-sponsored McLaughlin & Associates poll showing Lawler +3, while the district's roughly 78,000-voter Democratic registration edge and narrow 2024 Harris win give the challenger a small structural advantage. Lawler's incumbency, moderate brand and large war chest keep Republican odds close to even.","takeaway":"Democrats hold a narrow edge in a NY-17 toss-up, as Conley's fundraising and the district's lean offset Lawler's incumbency.","key_reasons":["Recent likely-voter polling is effectively tied: Emerson College/PIX11 (ended Oct 1) has Conley 48-46, while the Lawler-campaign-sponsored McLaughlin & Associates survey (ended Oct 3) has Lawler 50-47.","District fundamentals lean Democratic, with about 78,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, a narrow Harris win in 2024 and a roughly 10-point Biden win in 2020, in a midterm cycle that typically favors the out-party.","Lawler's incumbency, moderate positioning and roughly $8.17M raised through June 2026 keep the race close, while Conley's about $5M third-quarter haul and outside support sustain her competitiveness."],"uncertainty":"Only four head-to-head polls exist, two of them from July and one sponsored by the Lawler campaign, and the Kalshi snapshot dates to mid-September, so the race could easily shift on newer data.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:05:43.720625Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ny-17-2026-poll/","https://yonkerstimes.com/lawler-leads-cait-conley-50-47-in-new-poll-of-ny-17/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-york-us-house-17-polls-2026.html","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019f-3f14-df79-a5bf-3ff7edfd0000","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY17-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY17-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY17162/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mike-lawler/us_congress","https://lawler.cash/","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/mostcorrupt2026","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/new-york-district-17-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY17171/","https://www.nydailynews.com/2026/10/06/kean-lawler-challengers-bennett-conley-fundraising/","https://www.conleyrecord.com/","https://theintercept.com/2026/02/09/new-york-cait-conley-ai-palantir-dhs/","https://www.notus.org/democrats/how-corporate-pac-money-gets-to-democrats-who-swore-it-off","https://caitconley.com/cait-conley-again-outraises-entire-ny-17-primary-field-combined-heads-into-final-two-months-with-massive-momentum-and-coh-advantage/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY17-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY17-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NY-17?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.585,"yes_bid":0.58,"yes_ask":0.59,"last_price":0.59,"volume":87647.66,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:55.527801Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY17-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY17-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY17-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NY-17?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.415,"yes_bid":0.41,"yes_ask":0.42,"last_price":0.41,"volume":160015.35,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:56.480151Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY17-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.56,"Republican":0.44},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.52,"Republican":0.48},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":0.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.52,"Republican":0.48},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.04}},{"id":"ny-house-18-2026","title":"2026 New York's 18th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 18th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T15:10:30.434211+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pat Ryan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Pat_Ryan_117th_Congress_portrait.jpeg"},{"name":"Jackie Auringer","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://winwithjackie.com/images/jackie-headshot.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pat Ryan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"margin_estimate":11,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear advantage, backed by a 14-point 2024 re-election win, a 14-point lead in the only 2026 poll, and a roughly 50-to-1 fundraising edge over challenger Jackie Auringer. The district's modest Democratic lean plus Ryan's strong personal overperformance make Democrats clear favorites, though the single campaign-commissioned poll and midterm environment leave some uncertainty.","takeaway":"Democrats are clearly favored to hold NY-18, with incumbent Pat Ryan well positioned for another term.","key_reasons":["Incumbent Ryan won re-election by 14 points in 2024 and leads 53-39 in the only 2026 poll of likely voters.","Ryan holds a massive financial edge (~$4.7M raised, $3.1M cash) versus Auringer's ~$90K raised, limiting the challenger's ability to compete.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 94%, consistent with a clear but not certain Democratic advantage."],"uncertainty":"The only public poll was commissioned by Ryan's campaign, Auringer has limited resources to close the gap, and a potentially unfavorable midterm environment could narrow the margin.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:21:24.717401Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019f-fd55-d9b2-a7bf-ffdfcfc70000","https://midhudsonnews.com/2026/08/16/poll-ryan-holds-comfortable-lead-in-ny-18-congressional-race/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY18-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY18-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York's_18th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00815290/","https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4667634/jackie-auringer-calls-pat-ryan-return-aipac-funds-new-york-house-race/","https://www.dailyfreeman.com/2026/07/06/election-2026-ryan-tops-fundraising-among-regional-house-candidates/","https://jewishinsider.com/2026/07/daily-kickoff-pat-ryan-offers-refunds-to-pro-israel-donors/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY18252/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/NY"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY18-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY18-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-18?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.944,"yes_bid":0.925,"yes_ask":0.963,"last_price":0.925,"volume":7316.17,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:35:59.037397Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY18-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY18-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY18-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NY-18?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.057499999999999996,"yes_bid":0.042,"yes_ask":0.073,"last_price":0.042,"volume":9767.7,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:36:00.420293Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY18-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"ny-house-19-2026","title":"2026 New York's 19th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 19th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T01:02:26.221676+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Riley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Rep._Josh_Riley_official_photo%2C_119th_Congress.jpg/960px-Rep._Josh_Riley_official_photo%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Peter Oberacker","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Peter_Oberacker.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Riley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.8451,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8451,"Republican":0.1549},"margin_estimate":5.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"First-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley holds a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker in a D+1 seat decided by fewer than three points in each of the last two cycles. With no public polling of the matchup, the combination of incumbency, resources, and a slight Democratic lean points to a Likely Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Riley is favored to hold this competitive D+1 seat, aided by a large fundraising edge and the district's narrow Democratic lean.","key_reasons":["Riley has raised roughly $4.83M this cycle with about $3.19M cash on hand, versus Oberacker's roughly $1.24M raised and $392.9K cash on hand, a large resource gap in a district with no public polling.","NY-19 is a genuinely competitive D+1 seat decided by fewer than three points in each of the last two elections, so the Democratic advantage is real but not safe.","Prediction-market pricing put Democrats near 98% in mid-September 2026, consistent with a Likely Democratic rating, though that market is thin and dated."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the general election exists, and the only market signal is thin and dates to mid-September, so the race turns on whether Riley's fundraising and incumbency edge outweighs the district's history of sub-three-point margins.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T01:02:21.291741Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY19-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY19-26-R","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/josh-riley/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY22177/","https://www.cornellsun.com/article/2026/04/riley-almost-doubles-oberacker-s-campaign-funding-during-q1-of-2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/new-york/federal/new-york-district-19/candidates?cycle=2026","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/24/riley-oberacker-face-off-in-ny-19-general-election-on-nov-3-district-decided-by-fewer-than-three-points-in-each-of-the-last-two-elections/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00921668/","https://www.allotsego.com/riley-significantly-outraises-oberacker-in-congressional-race/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY19-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY19-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for NY-19?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9815,"yes_bid":0.977,"yes_ask":0.986,"last_price":0.972,"volume":7913.82,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:36:03.448691Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY19-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY19-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY19-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for NY-19?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.02,"yes_bid":0.012,"yes_ask":0.028,"last_price":0.041,"volume":3542.93,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:36:04.519435Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY19-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.85,"Republican":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"ny-house-20-2026","title":"2026 New York's 20th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 20th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:07:20.629993+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Paul Tonko","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Paul_Tonko.jpg"},{"name":"Ralph Ambrosio","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ralph_Ambrosio_20260409_035226.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Paul Tonko","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Tonko has represented this Albany-area district since 2009 and has repeatedly won by double digits in a Democratic-leaning seat, while challenger Ralph Ambrosio is a first-time congressional candidate with roughly $29k raised versus Tonko's ~$958k. No public polling exists, but long incumbency, a large financial advantage, and district partisanship make a Democratic hold highly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:07:14.484496Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_20th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/new-york-20/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00450049/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY21203/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-ny-20/compare/paul-tonko-vs-ralph-ambrosio","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00935965/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-21-2026","title":"2026 New York's 21st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 21st Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:56.878023+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Blake Gendebien","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Blake_Gendebien.png"},{"name":"Anthony Constantino","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AnthonyConstantino.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Blake Gendebien","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.55,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.45},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The newest likely-voter survey, Siena Research Institute on Oct 9, has Gendebien ahead 46-42, and SurveyUSA's Aug 8 poll also put him up four, while Public Policy Polling, Impact Research and J.L. Partners showed Constantino leading. NY-21's long Republican voting history and Constantino's $16 million self-funding keep the race close, but Gendebien's $7.5 million small-dollar haul and DCCC \"Red to Blue\" targeting give Democrats a slight edge.","takeaway":"Democrats hold a narrow edge in this open, historically Republican-leaning seat, with Gendebien slightly favored.","key_reasons":["Siena Research Institute's Oct 9 likely-voter poll puts Gendebien ahead 46-42, and SurveyUSA's Aug 8 poll also had him up 43-39, while the three intervening surveys favored Constantino.","The open seat has voted Republican since 2014, giving Constantino a structural advantage that keeps the contest close despite the Democratic-tilted national environment.","Gendebien's roughly $7.5 million raised from about 84,000 donors and DCCC Red to Blue designation offset Constantino's more than $16 million in self-funding and Trump endorsement."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Constantino's self-funding and the district's Republican history outweigh Gendebien's recent polling lead and small-dollar fundraising, and the mixed, sparse polling leaves the outcome genuinely uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:51.817558Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://sri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NYCD21-Press-Release_FINAL.pdf","https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100011239023730706/photo/1","https://www.wcax.com/2026/08/20/new-poll-shows-constantino-leading-ny-21st-congressional-race/","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001a0-7cab-d0aa-a9a9-7dbbe07f0000","https://wnyt.com/top-stories/new-poll-shows-constantino-leading-gendebien-in-ny-21/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY21199/","https://www.wwnytv.com/2026/10/01/congressional-campaign-constantino-invests-another-4m-gendebien-recently-raises-2m/","https://www.wwnytv.com/2026/10/05/democrats-pledge-more-campaign-support-gendebien/","https://www.nny360.com/top_stories/gendebien-campaign-has-2-6-million-reaches-79-000-donors-last-quarter/article_57c46c80-477b-5dda-90f4-f4a6efc33ee2.html","https://blakegendebienforcongress.com/news/","https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/53092/20260303/where-are-ny21-congressional-candidates-getting-their-campaign-cash","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NY/21","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY21157/","https://www.wwnytv.com/2026/06/23/ny-21-constantino-outspent-smullen-by-nearly-6m-leading-up-primary/","https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/06/21/elise-stefanik-competition-maga-candidates-constantino-smullen-00967961"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.45},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.43},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.47,"Republican":0.53},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ny-house-22-2026","title":"2026 New York's 22nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 22nd Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T23:42:51.011436+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Mannion","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John-Mannion.PNG"},{"name":"Kailee Buller","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kailee_Buller_20260317_013207.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Mannion","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"First-term incumbent John Mannion holds a roughly 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over Kailee Buller in a district that leans Democratic by about four points, and he already flipped the seat in 2024. With no public head-to-head polling, the clearest signals are that financial gap, the district's partisan lean, and prediction-market pricing that puts a Democratic win near 96%.","takeaway":"Mannion is strongly favored to hold this D+4 Central New York seat, buoyed by incumbency and a large fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Mannion's roughly 10-to-1 fundraising advantage ($2.69M raised, $1.84M cash on hand vs. Buller's $267K raised, $187K on hand) gives him a large resource edge in a D+4 district.","Incumbency and the district's Democratic lean: Mannion flipped NY-22 in 2024 and is defending a seat that leans about four points Democratic.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 95-96%, though the market was last updated in mid-September and no public polling exists."],"uncertainty":"No public head-to-head polling exists for this race, and the prediction-market read is stale (mid-September) with modest volume, so the size of Mannion's advantage rests mainly on fundraising, incumbency and the district's lean rather than on direct voter surveys.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T23:42:43.450801Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY22-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY22-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY22085/","https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2026/04/kailee-buller-turns-to-ag-industry-influential-friends-to-fuel-campaign-against-john-mannion.html","https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2026/06/rep-john-mannion-rakes-in-campaign-cash-as-kailee-buller-struggles-to-attract-gop-donors.html","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/john-w-mannion","https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2026/07/see-who-is-giving-campaign-cash-to-mannion-buller-in-central-ny-race-for-congress.html","https://www.romesentinel.com/news/john-mannion-kailee-buller-ny-22-campaign-race/article_a061c9b7-e0b6-4d22-9418-a7932e060844.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY22213/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY22-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSENY22-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-22?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9575,"yes_bid":0.942,"yes_ask":0.973,"last_price":0.954,"volume":4785.58,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:36:14.328227Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY22-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSENY22-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSENY22-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for NY-22?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.036000000000000004,"yes_bid":0.033,"yes_ask":0.039,"last_price":0.047,"volume":9826.94,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:36:15.595342Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSENY22-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ny-house-23-2026","title":"2026 New York's 23rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 23rd Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:11:52.513953+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nick Langworthy","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/Nick_langworthy_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Aaron Gies","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Aaron_Gies_20251027_011920.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Nick Langworthy","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Langworthy represents a district Donald Trump carried by 21 points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates the general election as Solid R. With no public polling, a well-funded incumbent, and a lightly funded challenger, the structural landscape overwhelmingly favors the Republican.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:11:34.119977Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483686","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY23228/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00910125/","https://langworthywatch.org/campaign-finance/","https://oleanstar.com/blog/2026/04/10/democratic-congressional-candidates-gies-stocker-stepping-up-their-fundraising-efforts/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-24-2026","title":"2026 New York's 24th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 24th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:02:25.097378+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Claudia Tenney","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Claudia-Tenney.PNG"},{"name":"Alissa Ellman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alissa_Ellman.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Claudia Tenney","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.06,"Republican":0.94},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"NY-24 is a reliably Republican district stretching from Niagara Falls through the Finger Lakes to Jefferson County, and incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a wide resource edge — roughly $1.37 million cash on hand versus about $12,850 for Alissa Ellman. With no public polling showing a competitive race, partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising all point to a comfortable Tenney win.","takeaway":"Tenney is strongly favored to hold this reliably Republican seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district is reliably Republican-leaning, and Tenney has won it comfortably in recent cycles.","Tenney is a well-funded incumbent: about $2.76 million raised and roughly $1.37 million cash on hand, against Ellman's roughly $193,000 raised and about $12,850 cash on hand.","No public polling or prediction-market signal indicates a competitive contest, and Ellman enters the general election with limited resources and name recognition."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signal exists for this race, so the estimate rests on partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising rather than direct candidate-level evidence, and the national midterm environment remains an open variable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:02:22.519592Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ivoterguide.com/race/33832/election/1487","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY22051/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00632828/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tenney-claudia/summary?cid=N00036351","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tenney-claudia/industries?cid=N00036351&cycle=2026","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/claudia-tenney-ny","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook-pm/2026/01/15/rep-claudia-tenney-loves-novak-djokovic-campaign-cash-00732219","https://www.nny360.com/top_stories/ellman-pitches-solutions-focused-campaign-in-bid-against-tenney/article_2e818889-1f04-528a-9c95-bf3d7e2c416e.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY24219/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/forward-party-endorses-niina-baum-in-wisconsin-and-alissa-ellman-in-new-york/","https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/53588/20260619/meet-the-democrats-hoping-to-replace-claudia-tenney-in-ny-24"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"ny-house-25-2026","title":"2026 New York's 25th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 25th Congressional District (Monroe County and portions of Ontario County)","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:16:28.578576+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joseph Morelle","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joseph-Morelle.PNG"},{"name":"Virginia McIntyre","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Virginia_McIntyre_20260419_123734.jpg"},{"name":"Kloud Walton","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kloud_Walton_26.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joseph Morelle","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NY-25 is a heavily Democratic Rochester-area district, and incumbent Joseph Morelle — who cleared his primary with 63.3% — holds a decisive structural advantage over a Republican county legislator and an independent. With no public polling and a weakly funded challenger field, the district's partisan lean and incumbency make a Democratic hold highly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:16:17.706220Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_25th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY25105/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joseph-morelle/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/virginia-mcintyre/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_25th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Republican_primary)","https://insideelections.com/person/virginia-mcintyre/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6NY25216/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kloud-walton/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ny-house-26-2026","title":"2026 New York's 26th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"New York's 26th Congressional District","state":"New York","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T14:46:46.063813+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tim Kennedy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Rep._Tim_Kennedy%27s_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Dennis Hannon","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/niagara-gazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/d/2d/d2dd6aae-1a9e-4724-8beb-a84bce0303c0/69dff30024aa4.image.jpg?resize=400%2C458"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tim Kennedy","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"NY-26 is a heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+11, rated Solid D) where incumbent Tim Kennedy holds a decisive financial and organizational edge (~$4.6M raised) over first-time Republican challenger Dennis Hannon, who has no reported FEC filings. No public polling exists, but the district's structural fundamentals make a Republican upset highly improbable.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T13:23:56.109573Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_26th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://whoboughtmyrep.com/politician/timothy-kennedy-ny","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY26078/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/n00054366/us_congress/summary?mpid=1332895","https://investigativepost.org/2024/01/25/all-tim-kennedys-money/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/?q=dennis+hannon&cycle=2026"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-governor-2026","title":"2026 Ohio Governor Election","office":"Governor of Ohio","jurisdiction":"Ohio","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:06:33.646716+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Vivek Ramaswamy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Vivek_Ramaswamy_2026_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Amy Acton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Amy_Acton_2025.jpg"},{"name":"Don Kissick","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/advancelocal/RPJS3KTLXRGCZEXCCUK5DJ4LIU.jpg"},{"name":"Tim Grady","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TimGrady2025.jpg"},{"name":"Heather Hill","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://whnt.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2025/02/67c0bd90394758.94511849.jpeg?w=2560&h=1440&crop=1"},{"name":"Renea Turner","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Renea-Turner.PNG"},{"name":"Ron Ula","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Amy Acton","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.66,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.66,"Independent":0.0045,"Libertarian":0.0045,"Republican":0.3311},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Democrats hold a modest edge in this open-seat race: Amy Acton leads in most recent surveys, including CNN/SSRS (Acton +8), USA Today/Suffolk (+9), Marist (+6), NYT/Siena (+4) and YouGov (+4), while co/efficient shows Ramaswamy +2. Ohio's Republican lean and Ramaswamy's roughly $50M war chest keep the contest close, so the advantage is narrow rather than decisive.","takeaway":"Amy Acton holds a narrow edge in a tight Ohio governor's race, with recent polling and markets favoring Democrats slightly.","key_reasons":["Acton leads in most recent polling, with margins of +4 to +9 in CNN/SSRS, USA Today/Suffolk, Marist, NYT/Siena and YouGov; co/efficient (Ramaswamy +2) and Big Data Poll (Ramaswamy +1) are the exceptions.","Ramaswamy's record fundraising (about $50M, including a $25M personal loan and super PAC support) and high-profile endorsements keep Republicans competitive in a state that leans Republican.","The Kalshi market priced a Democratic win near 70% in mid-September, consistent with a modest but real Democratic edge."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Ramaswamy's spending advantage and Ohio's Republican lean can overcome Acton's polling lead, and the Kalshi market reading is from mid-September, predating the latest mixed October 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No public polling exists, but the structural and financial gaps make a competitive outcome implausible.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:10:42.859835Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/ohio-5/","https://boe.woodcountyohio.gov/DocumentCenter/View/370/Candidate-List-PDF","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8OH05036/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/bob-latta/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/bob-latta/industries","https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/11/15/last-minute-donations-who-gave-to-ohios-federal-candidates-in-the-final-weeks-of-the-election/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH05154/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brian-shaver/donors","https://www.brianshaverforcongress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Michael_Veloff","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH05139/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/dalton-franklin/about"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 6th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:52:01.452016+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Rulli","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_RulliOH.jpg"},{"name":"Elizabeth Kirtley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Elizabeth_Kirtley_20260405_053332.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Rulli","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Michael Rulli is overwhelmingly favored in this strongly Republican-leaning district, holding a decisive financial advantage ($1.11M raised vs. $1,132) and winning his primary with 76.2% of the vote. No polling exists, and Democrat Elizabeth Kirtley's first-time, low-resource campaign faces long odds in a seat rated Solid/Safe Republican.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:43:44.693756Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.vindy.com/news/local-news/2026/07/rulli-joyce-far-outdistance-dem-opponents-in-funding-for-congress-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OH06165/","https://www.morningjournalnews.com/news/local-news/2026/07/rulli-far-outdistances-dem-opponent-in-funding-for-congress-race/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/michael-a-rulli","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH06244/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OH"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 7th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:35.950729+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Max Miller","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Max-Miller.PNG"},{"name":"Brian Poindexter","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brian_Poindexter_20260119_024913.jpg"},{"name":"Thahbia Asad","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Andrey Martinichin","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrey_Martinichin_20260208_084533.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brian Poindexter","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.5858,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.5858,"Independent":0.0001,"Republican":0.4141},"margin_estimate":4,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Three of the four listed head-to-head polls put Democrat Brian Poindexter ahead of Republican incumbent Max Miller — Bedrock Polling +8 (Aug 10), co/efficient +14 (Aug 6) and Tavern Research +8 (Aug 4) — while GBAO's June 20 survey had Miller +1. That polling edge, combined with a roughly three-to-one Democratic ad-spending advantage in a $4.1 million race and Poindexter's placement in the DCCC's Red to Blue program, offsets the district's roughly 11-point Republican presidential lean and Miller's incumbency.","takeaway":"Poindexter holds a narrow edge over incumbent Miller in a red-leaning district that has turned into a genuine toss-up.","key_reasons":["Poindexter leads in three of the four listed head-to-head polls (Bedrock +8 on Aug 10, co/efficient +14 on Aug 6, Tavern Research +8 on Aug 4), with only GBAO's June 20 survey showing Miller ahead by 1.","Democrats have outspent Republicans roughly three to one in a race with at least $4.1 million in ad spending, and the DCCC added Poindexter to its Red to Blue program.","The counterweight keeping this close: the redrawn district voted for Trump by about 11 points in 2024 and Miller is the two-term incumbent, so a Republican hold remains well within reach."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's roughly 11-point Republican presidential lean and Miller's incumbency outweigh Poindexter's polling lead, and the polling base is thin — no named public survey since Bedrock's Aug 10 release, small samples, and several pollsters with limited track records.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:31.151916Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/ohio-7/","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6015633-poindexter-leads-max-miller-poll/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH16051/","https://www.newsweek.com/poll-shows-max-miller-down-double-digits-as-he-loans-campaign-1-million-12294903","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/18/forecasters-move-ohios-7th-congressional-district-to-toss-up-ahead-of-november-general-election/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/max-miller/us_congress/summary?mpid=1079297","https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=max+miller&order=desc&sort=N","https://www.quiverquant.com/committees/C00770818","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brian-poindexter/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH07168/","https://dccc.org/brian-poindexter-added-to-dcccs-coveted-red-to-blue-program/","https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4688277/house-democrats-pac-6-million-ohio-max-miller/","https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/05/outside-money-helped-elect-poindexter-in-ohio-7th-primary-and-theres-likely-a-lot-more-coming.html","https://www.afge.org/publication/largest-federal-employee-union-endorses-ohios-brian-poindexter-for-election-to-congress/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/OH/07/2026/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-oh-7/general"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6,"Republican":0.4},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.42,"Independent":0},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.41,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"oh-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 8th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:48:43.563355+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Warren Davidson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Warren_Davidson_118th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Vanessa Enoch","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/venoch.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Warren Davidson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Warren Davidson has carried this heavily Republican district by roughly two-thirds margins in prior cycles, while Democratic challenger Vanessa Enoch has never exceeded 37.2% of the vote. With no public polling and a large fundraising gap, a Republican hold is overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:48:32.865681Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OH","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8OH08097/","https://enochforcongress.com/endorsements/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH08315/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/warren-davidson/summary","https://ohiocpa.com/for-the-public/news/2026/07/17/ohio-congressional-campaign-finance--incumbents-sit-on-millions-in-campaign-funds","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00667279/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/vanessa-enoch/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 9th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-11T02:03:59.404061+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marcy Kaptur","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marcy_Kaptur.jpg"},{"name":"Derek Merrin","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DerekMerrin2024.jpeg"},{"name":"Kathy McKinstry","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://vibe.filesafe.space/1775541626877099781/attachments/1ef1aa67-11e3-4e8a-99af-400b1ecf6fa4.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marcy Kaptur","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.55,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Independent":0.0098,"Republican":0.4402},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kaptur's four decades of incumbency and roughly seven-to-one cash advantage ($3.5 million on hand versus about $0.5 million) offset a district redrawn to a Republican presidential lean, and the newest public survey is a 48-48 tie. The older April poll put Merrin ahead by 4, leaving the race close to even with a slight Democratic tilt.","takeaway":"Kaptur holds a narrow edge in a genuine toss-up, buoyed by incumbency and a large fundraising lead in a redrawn Republican-leaning district.","key_reasons":["Kaptur is a long-serving incumbent with a strong Toledo-area brand who ran ahead of the presidential ticket in 2024, and she holds a roughly 7x fundraising advantage over Merrin.","The most recent public survey (DCCC Analytics, ended Sept 22) is tied 48-48, while the older McLaughlin & Associates poll (ended April 20) had Merrin up 4, indicating a race near even.","The October 2025 redraw made the seat Republican-leaning on presidential numbers, and Merrin lost by only about 2,400 votes in 2024, keeping this a true toss-up."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's new Republican presidential lean and Merrin's near-miss in 2024 outweigh Kaptur's incumbency and money, and the read is clouded by thin polling—one recent tied survey and one older poll—plus a prediction-market price last updated in mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-11T02:03:52.265639Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://dccc.org/dccc-polling-memo-oh-09-is-a-dead-heat/","https://nrcc.org/2026/05/15/nrcc-releases-battleground-polling-in-oh-09/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH9-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH9-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH09031/","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/house-midterms-toss-ups-campaign-cash-incumbents.html","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/06/redistricting-redraws-ohios-9th-district-ahead-of-2026-kaptur-merrin-rematch/","https://www.opensecrets.org/joint-fundraising-committees-jfcs/marcy-kaptur-victory-fund/C00857136/2024/industries","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OH","https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-pac-endorses-derek-merrin-in-oh-09-race/","https://www.clubforgrowth.org/candidates/derek-merrin/","https://www.nfib.com/news/news/small-businesses-endorse-derek-merrin-for-ohios-9th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OH09169/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH09180/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00944256/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOH9-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEOH9-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for OH-9?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.725,"yes_bid":0.72,"yes_ask":0.73,"last_price":0.72,"volume":47087.01,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:37:03.648070Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH9-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOH9-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEOH9-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for OH-9?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.28500000000000003,"yes_bid":0.28,"yes_ask":0.29,"last_price":0.29,"volume":41903.71,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:37:04.768258Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH9-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.64,"Republican":0.35,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.54,"Republican":0.45,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.53,"Republican":0.46,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"oh-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 10th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T07:04:01.088708+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Turner","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mike_Turner.jpg"},{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kristina_Knickerbocker.png"},{"name":"Thomas McMasters","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Thomas_McMasters_2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Turner","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.1283,"Libertarian":0.0117},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Turner led both July surveys — Global Strategy Group (45-40, ended July 23) and FM3 Research (48-41, ended July 12) — and has a long record of running well ahead of the district's Republican lean, winning by 18 in 2024 while Trump carried it by 6. Knickerbocker has credible military and healthcare credentials and DCCC backing, but trails substantially in fundraising and faces a district that still leans Republican.","takeaway":"Turner is clearly favored to hold Ohio's 10th, with a consistent mid-single-digit July lead and a strong incumbency edge.","key_reasons":["Turner led the two July head-to-head surveys by 5 and 7 points, with no later public poll contradicting that lead.","Turner is a long-tenured incumbent who outperformed the district's partisan lean by roughly 12 points in 2024 (won by 18 while Trump carried it by 6).","Turner holds a large fundraising advantage ($894,595 vs $362,666 in cycle receipts through June 30, 2026) in a district that still leans Republican."],"uncertainty":"Both public surveys are from July 2026 with no later poll identified, so a mid-single-digit lead leaves room for movement over the final weeks, and the Libertarian candidacy adds a small amount of down-ballot uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T07:03:57.725976Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/OH-10-Knickerbocker-Memo-F07.24.26-3.pdf","https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/07/22/FM3-Research/House-Majority-PAC-Ohio--10-2026-07-06-2026-07-12","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH03067/","https://ohiocpa.com/for-the-public/news/2026/07/17/ohio-congressional-campaign-finance--incumbents-sit-on-millions-in-campaign-funds","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH10121/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/thomas-mcmasters","https://dccc.org/the-case-against-mike-turner/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH10113/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00613455/","https://tommcmasters.us/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OH","https://ballotpedia.org/Thomas_McMasters_(Ohio_U.S._House)"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.09,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"oh-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 11th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:45:58.572597+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Shontel Brown","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Shontel_Brown.png"},{"name":"Mike Kirchner","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://mikekirchner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/MikePicWithRedShirt-1.jpg"},{"name":"Cortney Peterson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cortney_Peterson_20260323_043203.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Shontel Brown","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":45,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Ohio's 11th is a heavily Democratic district that has been represented by Democrats since its creation, and incumbent Shontel Brown combines strong district partisanship with a substantial incumbency and fundraising advantage ($1.16M cash on hand). Her Republican challenger is a first-time candidate with no FEC-reported fundraising, reinforcing the lopsided outlook.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T13:43:59.105904Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://ohiocpa.com/for-the-public/news/2026/07/17/ohio-congressional-campaign-finance--incumbents-sit-on-millions-in-campaign-funds","https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/04/even-in-ohios-safest-democratic-congressional-seat-nobody-gets-a-free-pass-this-may.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH11169/","https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/04/11th-congressional-district-primary-2-dems-target-rep-shontel-brown-2-on-gop-slate.html","https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/443/202512099793386443/202512099793386443.pdf","https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/07/brian-poindexter-triples-cash-on-hand-works-to-close-fundraising-gap-with-us-rep-max-miller.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH11186/","https://www.cortneyforcongress.org/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 12th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T09:36:42.780092+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Troy Balderson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Troy-Balderson.jpg"},{"name":"Jerrad Christian","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/2ce4e2_6c687650676f42f9928870c3695e5b68~mv2.png/v1/crop/x_0,y_2,w_972,h_885/fill/w_493,h_449,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/Jerrad-Headshot2.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Troy Balderson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Troy Balderson combines incumbency since 2018, an unopposed primary, and roughly $1.74M raised through June 30, 2026 against Jerrad Christian's ~$84K grassroots haul in a reliably Republican central-eastern Ohio district. With no public polling, every observable fundamental points decisively to a Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T09:36:30.568131Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8OH12180/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OH12080/","https://ohiocpa.com/for-the-public/news/2026/07/17/ohio-congressional-campaign-finance--incumbents-sit-on-millions-in-campaign-funds","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/ohio-12/forecast/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/troy-balderson/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1095726","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Troy%20Balderson-B001306/donors","https://www.thereportingproject.org/meet-the-candidates-three-democrats-vie-for-12th-district-house-seat/","https://www.christianforohio.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 13th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:08:20.877302+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Emilia Sykes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Emilia_Sykes.jpg"},{"name":"Carey Coleman","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Carey_Coleman.png"},{"name":"Sandeep Dixit","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sandeep_Dixit_20251208_093038.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Emilia Sykes","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9353,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9353,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.0547},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Two-term incumbent Emilia Sykes holds a decisive resource advantage — roughly $3.1 million raised and about $1.9 million in cash on hand, versus about $127,000 raised by Carey Coleman and about $58,000 raised by Sandeep Dixit — in a district redrawn in October 2025 to lean Democratic. With no public polling of the general election, the fundamentals of incumbency, money, and district lean point to a comfortable Sykes win.","takeaway":"Sykes is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, buoyed by incumbency, a large fundraising edge, and a redrawn district.","key_reasons":["Sykes is a two-term incumbent in a district redrawn in October 2025 to lean Democratic, improving her position relative to her 51.1% win in 2024.","Sykes holds a large fundraising advantage (~$3.1M raised, ~$1.9M cash on hand) over Coleman (~$127K raised, ~$78K cash) and Dixit (~$58K raised, ~$6K cash), leaving the challengers unable to compete on air.","Prediction markets price a Democratic win near 96%, consistent with the incumbency, money, and partisan-lean fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of the general election exists, and the market signal comes from mid-September with modest volume, so the main open question is whether the independent candidacy of Sandeep Dixit meaningfully shifts vote share.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:02:52.698245Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH13-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH13-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH13264/","https://insideelections.com/person/emilia-sykes/","https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH13307/","https://careycoleman.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH13273/","https://www.sandeepdixit.com/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOH13-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEOH13-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for OH-13?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9575,"yes_bid":0.946,"yes_ask":0.969,"last_price":0.969,"volume":6679.96,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:37:19.785319Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH13-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOH13-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEOH13-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for OH-13?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.013,"yes_bid":0.007,"yes_ask":0.019,"last_price":0.028,"volume":5701.09,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:04:25.275083Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOH13-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.055,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"oh-house-14-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 14th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-27T21:58:21.811184+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"David Joyce","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Joyce.jpg"},{"name":"Maria Jukic","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Maria2026Jukic.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"David Joyce","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent David Joyce has held this seat since 2013 in a district with a strong Republican lean across four-plus counties, and he holds a massive fundraising advantage ($3.1M cash on hand vs. Jukic's $33.7K). No public polling exists, but incumbency, seniority on Appropriations, and the district's GOP fundamentals make Joyce a heavy favorite.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T21:58:04.587470Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH14064/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH14248/","https://www.tribtoday.com/news/local-news/2026/04/joyce-and-rulli-have-financial-advantage/","https://www.vindy.com/news/local-news/2026/07/rulli-joyce-far-outdistance-dem-opponents-in-funding-for-congress-races/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/david-p-joyce/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1086394","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/maria-jukic/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"oh-house-15-2026","title":"2026 Ohio's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Ohio's 15th Congressional District","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:25:38.789808+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Carey","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MikeCarey.jpg"},{"name":"Don Leonard","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Don_Leonard_20260225_012907.jpeg"},{"name":"Brennan Barrington","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/final-headshot_20260817_182148_32814_1.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Josephson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/GaryJosephson.jpeg"},{"name":"Samuel Ronan","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/SamRonan26.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Carey","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.7839,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.201,"Independent":0.0101,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.7839},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Mike Carey brings incumbency, a large fundraising and cash-on-hand edge, and a district that has voted Republican by wide margins in recent cycles. Four public polls show a single-digit contest — Carey led by 3, 4 and 5 points in the May, June and August surveys, while a September 24 Hart Research poll sponsored by House Majority PAC put Leonard ahead 46-45 — leaving the incumbent clearly favored but not out of reach.","takeaway":"Carey is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though recent polling shows a closer single-digit race.","key_reasons":["Carey holds incumbency plus a large resource advantage: roughly $3.3M raised and $2.06M cash on hand versus Leonard's $606K raised and $252K on hand, along with a U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement.","OH-15 has been reliably Republican — Carey won it 57-43 in 2022 and by wide margins in 2024, and the October 2025 redraw left the seat Republican-leaning.","Polling shows a single-digit race: Carey led by 3 points (Tavern Research, May 21), 5 points (Hart Research, June 25) and 4 points (Hart Research, August 9), while a September 24 Hart Research poll sponsored by House Majority PAC put Leonard ahead 46-45."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Carey's incumbency, fundraising edge and district lean outweigh a September 24 Hart Research poll showing Leonard ahead 46-45, with third-party and write-in candidates adding uncertainty to how the vote ultimately splits.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T16:03:52.189099Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-conservatives-want","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/ohio-us-house-15-polls-2026.html","https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-don-leonard-within-striking-distance-of-mike-carey-in-oh-15","https://pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/ohio-15/","https://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/getmedia/352b644d-b348-447e-b60d-aa9b9193a297/2026-General-Form-No-120-FWAB-Notice-46-Day","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH15228/","https://ohiocpa.com/for-the-public/news/2026/07/17/ohio-congressional-campaign-finance--incumbents-sit-on-millions-in-campaign-funds","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/huntington-bancshares/C00165589/candidate-recipients/2024","https://dccc.org/the-case-against-mike-carey/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH15112/","https://www.endcitizensunited.org/news/end-citizens-united-endorses-don-leonard-for-ohios-15th-congressional-district","https://lp.org/candidate/brennan-barrington/","https://ballotpedia.org/Samuel_Ronan","https://www.samronan.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH15138/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.9,"Democratic":0.09,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.21,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"Libertarian":0.01,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"oh-senate-2026-special","title":"2026 Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Ohio","state":"Ohio","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:05:55.376285+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jon Husted","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Sen._Jon_Husted_official_portrait%2C_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Sherrod Brown","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Sherrod_Brown.jpg"},{"name":"Bill Redpath","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/William-Redpath-March-2015_20260422_220542_11167.jpg"},{"name":"Gregory Levy","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gregory_Levy_20251027_011312.jpg"},{"name":"Stephen Faris","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephen_Faris_20260101_075832.jpg"},{"name":"Anthony Holliman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Timothy Telymonde","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sherrod Brown","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6094,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6094,"Independent":0.002,"Libertarian":0.004,"Republican":0.3846},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"tilt_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted by about 5 points on average across recent high-quality surveys, including CNN (49-43), NYT/Siena (49-46), YouGov (49-45) and Marist (51-43), while a co/efficient poll (Husted 44-43) shows the race within the margin. Ohio's Republican lean, Husted's incumbency and heavy outside spending keep the contest close, leaving Democrats narrowly favored.","takeaway":"Sherrod Brown holds a narrow polling edge over incumbent Jon Husted in a close Ohio Senate race that could decide chamber control.","key_reasons":["Brown leads in the most recent surveys: CNN 49-43 (Oct 5), NYT/Siena 49-46 (Oct 1), YouGov 49-45 (Sep 30) and Marist 51-43 (Sep 27), with a co/efficient poll showing Husted ahead 44-43 (Oct 6).","Ohio's Republican lean and Husted's incumbency, $14.4M in receipts and major outside-group support (Senate Leadership Fund, Americans for Prosperity Action) keep the race within a few points.","Brown's fundraising advantage ($38.6M in receipts, including $14.1M in Q2 2026) and long statewide profile underpin his narrow edge."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Ohio's Republican lean and Husted's incumbency and outside-spending advantage offset Brown's polling lead, with several surveys — including Emerson (Husted +6), Echelon Insights (Husted +6) and a June NYT/Siena poll (Husted +3) — showing Husted ahead and Ohio polls having understated Republicans in past 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With no public general-election polling logged, prediction markets put Republican odds near 92%, consistent with a likely Republican hold of this open seat.","takeaway":"Republicans are strongly favored to hold Oklahoma's open governorship, with Mike Mazzei's funding edge and the state's deep red lean outweighing a sparse polling picture.","key_reasons":["Oklahoma's strong Republican lean: Trump won the state with 66% in 2024 and a Democrat has not won the governorship since 2006.","Mazzei's resource and endorsement edge: about $11.9 million in self-funding plus Trump and outgoing Gov. 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With no public polling, the call rests on the district's durable partisan lean rather than survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T19:10:48.586897Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OK01201/","https://insideelections.com/person/mark-tedford/","https://tulsaflyer.org/2026/06/09/government/post/mark-tedford-us-house-race/","https://www.batesline.com/archives/2026/06/oklahoma-1st-district-fundraisin.html","https://ballotpedia.org/John_Croisant","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OK01235/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=26764149&default=candidate","https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/mark-tedford-thinks-experience-can-outdo-a-trump-endorsement/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ok-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Oklahoma","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:22:37.999978+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Brecheen","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Josh_Brecheen.jpg"},{"name":"Brandon Wade","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://nondoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/BrandonWadeCD2dem2026-1.jpg"},{"name":"Ronnie Hopkins","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RonnieHopkins.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Brecheen","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":50,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Oklahoma's 2nd District is a heavily Republican seat where incumbent Josh Brecheen won a second term with 74.2% in 2024 and cruised through the 2026 primary with 79.2%. With no public polling and a Democratic challenger who raised under $5,000, Brecheen holds an overwhelming structural advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:22:13.569158Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00812974/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/josh-brecheen/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/oklahoma/federal/oklahoma-district-02","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OK02196/","https://gaylordnews.net/8760/news/native-american/incumbent-oklahoma-delegation-holds-big-financial-advantage-over-opponents/","https://insideelections.com/person/brandon-wade/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OK02204/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ok-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Oklahoma","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T14:55:01.334986+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Frank D. 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Democratic challenger Suzie Byrd, a first-time candidate with no reported fundraising, faces a prohibitive structural disadvantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T14:43:08.172488Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Oklahoma","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OK06056/?cycle=2026"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ok-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District","state":"Oklahoma","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:10:10.440293+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Cole","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Cole.jpg"},{"name":"Mitchell Jacob","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mitchell-Jacob-for-Congress_20260522_020005_36118.jpg"},{"name":"Rocco Bonacci","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom Cole","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Oklahoma's 4th is a heavily Republican district where incumbent Appropriations chair Tom Cole holds a dominant incumbency and fundraising edge (~$3.83M raised vs. ~$65K for Democrat Mitchell Jacob). With no public polling and a weak Democratic/independent field, a Republican hold is near-certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:09:55.254967Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OK04055/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OK04155/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/tom-cole","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OK","https://www.magareportcards.com/cole/","https://ballotpedia.org/Rocco_Bonacci"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"ok-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District","state":"Oklahoma","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:03:15.079297+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Stephanie Bice","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Stephanie_Bice.jpg"},{"name":"Jena Nelson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LankfordPost-2_20260629_205343_43152_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Robert Henri","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RPH-Candidate-Photo-Ballotpedia_20260610_165036_40597_1.jpg"},{"name":"Austin Nieves","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/022ee9_ed97be6f72544f4ca7993379593b4a97~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_588,h_594,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_avif,quality_auto/022ee9_ed97be6f72544f4ca7993379593b4a97~mv2.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Stephanie Bice","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.88,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.11,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.88},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Stephanie Bice leads the most recent head-to-head poll (GBAO, ended Sept. 20) 48-43 and holds a large fundraising advantage over Jena Nelson, in a district whose post-2020 lines added heavily Republican rural territory. Nelson's earlier campaign internal poll was tied at 39-39, but it is older and campaign-sponsored, so it carries less weight than the later survey.","takeaway":"Bice is clearly favored to hold this Republican-leaning Oklahoma City-area seat, though the race is closer than the district's lean implies.","key_reasons":["Bice leads the newest head-to-head poll 48-43 (GBAO, ended Sept. 20), a five-point edge even in a survey fielded by a Democratic pollster.","Bice has raised roughly $1.94M this cycle versus about $449K for Nelson, plus the advantages of incumbency and no primary challenge.","The district's post-2020 boundaries added rural, Republican-leaning territory, giving the GOP a structural edge in a seat Bice has won comfortably."],"uncertainty":"Public polling is thin — only one recent survey plus an older campaign internal poll — so the true margin is uncertain, and the race turns on whether Bice's incumbency, funding and district lean outweigh Nelson's grassroots-funded challenge.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:03:10.471170Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/oklahoma-5/","https://jenanelson.com/press-release/new-poll-finds-jena-nelson-leading-stephanie-bice-by-four-points/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0OK05205/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/stephanie-bice/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/stephanie-bice/industries","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OK05293/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jena-nelson/donors","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jenaforthe5th","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OK05301/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OK","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OK04176/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.89,"Democratic":0.1,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"ok-senate-2026","title":"2026 Oklahoma U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Oklahoma","state":"Oklahoma","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T20:53:44.186873+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kevin Hern","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/15589751_225475587878868_2375580706974003254_n.jpg"},{"name":"N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nkiyla_Thomas_2025.jpeg"},{"name":"Sevier White","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.wjhl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/98/2019/10/COVER-PHOTO_Pete-Buttigieg-responds-to-Sevier-Co.-commissioners-comments_1025.jpg?strip=1"},{"name":"Ron Meinhardt","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ron_Meinhardt_20260218_101107.jpg"},{"name":"Curtis Stinnett","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-3260_20260516_050108_31833.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kevin Hern","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9729,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.0201,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.002,"Republican":0.9729},"margin_estimate":36,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Oklahoma has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1990, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Kevin Hern combines a ~70% primary win with roughly $8.3 million raised, while Democrat N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas has raised about $45,000 with $547 cash on hand. Prediction markets price the Republican win at roughly 97-98%, and no public polling exists to challenge that fundamental picture.","takeaway":"Republicans are heavily favored to hold Oklahoma's Senate seat, with Kevin Hern the clear favorite.","key_reasons":["Oklahoma's deep Republican lean: no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race there since 1990.","Hern's structural advantages: Trump endorsement, ~$8.3M raised, and a 69.8% primary win versus Thomas's ~$45K raised and $547 cash on hand.","Prediction markets price a Republican win at roughly 97-98%."],"uncertainty":"There is no public polling for this race, and the late Republican feud over the post-election interim appointment adds noise, though it is unlikely to alter the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T20:53:38.023708Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOK-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOK-26-D","https://results.okelections.gov/OKER/?elecDate=20260825","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/kevin-hern/us_congress/summary?mpid=1143167","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/kevin-hern/industries?cid=N00040829&cycle=CAREER&type=I","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/kevin-hern/us_congress/organizations?mpid=1143167","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8OK01157/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OK04163/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00899559/","https://www.jasmineforok.com/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/sevier-white","https://ballotpedia.org/Sevier_White","https://oklahomaconstitution.com/ns.php?nid=1501","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OK04205/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ron-meinhardt","https://insideelections.com/person/ron-meinhardt/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/curtis-stinnett","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/curtis-stinnett/about/b1235eb3-70cc-4c15-8803-616a22111991"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEOK-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEOK-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oklahoma?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0185,"yes_bid":0.011,"yes_ask":0.026,"last_price":0.026,"volume":18389.54,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:09.818937Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOK-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEOK-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEOK-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.98,"yes_bid":0.971,"yes_ask":0.989,"last_price":0.975,"volume":21239.44,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:10.781757Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOK-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Libertarian":0.002,"Independent":0.008},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":36,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.987,"Democratic":0.012,"Libertarian":0.0005,"Independent":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":32,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.017}},{"id":"or-05-house-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 5th Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:02:54.953340+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Janelle Bynum","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Janelle_Bynum%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Patti Adair","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Patti_Adair_20260513_205324_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Janelle Bynum","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"margin_estimate":8.2,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Janelle Bynum holds a roughly 9:1 fundraising edge over Patti Adair ($3.76M to $424K, with $2.7M cash on hand) and a narrow Democratic voter-registration advantage in a district that still leans Democratic. With no public polling logged, the estimate rests on those fundamentals plus a thin prediction market that prices Democrats near 95%.","takeaway":"Bynum is clearly favored to hold this Democratic seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Bynum's incumbency and large financial advantage: about $3.76M raised and $2.7M cash on hand versus Adair's $424K raised and $135K on hand.","The district retains a Democratic voter-registration edge (about 3.6%) and a midterm environment that has typically worked against the sitting president's party.","A prediction market prices Democrats near 95%, consistent with a clear but not certain Democratic advantage."],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race and the prediction market is thin and dated (mid-September), while the district flipped party control in each of the last two elections and the Democratic registration edge has narrowed, so the race turns on whether Bynum's incumbency and money advantage outweigh that volatility.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:02:48.145115Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOR5-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOR5-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OR05304/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/janelle-s-bynum","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/16/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-latest-fundraising-period/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=OR05","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/janelle-bynum/summary?cid=N00052777&cycle=2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OR05242/","https://www.opb.org/article/2026/05/11/oregon-house-bynum-campaign-spending/","https://www.opb.org/article/2026/05/20/patti-adair-jonathan-lockwood-election-result/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOR5-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEOR5-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for OR-5?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9515,"yes_bid":0.945,"yes_ask":0.958,"last_price":0.945,"volume":4166,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:05.525622Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOR5-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEOR5-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEOR5-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for OR-5?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0375,"yes_bid":0.021,"yes_ask":0.054,"last_price":0.02,"volume":2214,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:07.056926Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEOR5-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0}},{"id":"or-governor-2026","title":"2026 Oregon Governor Election","office":"Governor of Oregon","jurisdiction":"Oregon","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:06:00.236585+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tina Kotek","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Headshots/meet-tina-image-2000px.jpg"},{"name":"Christine Drazan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christine_Drazan.jpg"},{"name":"Brett Smith","party":"Pacific Green Party of Oregon","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tina Kotek","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.6868,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.6868,"Pacific Green":0.0001,"Pacific Green Party of Oregon":0.0101,"Republican":0.303},"margin_estimate":3,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Kotek holds a narrow but real edge: the two newest likely-voter surveys put her ahead by 2 and 4 points, and she pairs incumbency with a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. Drazan has kept the rematch close — a DHM Research poll ending Sept. 27 had her up 1 — so the contest stays competitive rather than comfortable.","takeaway":"Kotek is narrowly favored to keep the governorship, with recent polling and incumbency outweighing a competitive Drazan challenge.","key_reasons":["The two newest likely-voter polls show Kotek ahead — GBAO 46-42 and DHM Research 46-44 — though both leads sit within their margins of error.","Kotek is the incumbent in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982, and she holds a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Drazan.","Drazan has kept the rematch close, including a DHM Research poll ending Sept. 27 that put her ahead 47-46, so the race remains genuinely competitive."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Kotek's narrow polling lead and incumbency advantage hold against a close rematch — one late-September survey had Drazan ahead — with the Green nominee's small share and a prediction market reading that predates the October polls adding further uncertainty.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:05:53.879180Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/08/new-polls-kotek-may-lead/","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/09/poll-shows-drazan-kotek-running-nearly-even-in-race-for-oregon-governor.html","https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/15/oregon-governors-race-tina-kotek-christine-drazan-poll/","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/02/who-will-be-oregons-next-governor-first-poll-of-2026-names-this-candidate.html","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/05/how-would-these-republican-candidates-for-governor-fare-against-kotek-in-november-what-new-poll-shows.html","https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/drazan-kotek-governor-oregon-gubernatorial-poll-survey-lead-race/283-d98e6b3d-2968-444c-b728-60df0a16e24f","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYOR-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYOR-26-R","https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/sooDetail.do?cneCommitteeId=4792","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/07/15-million-donation-lands-as-oregon-governors-race-speeds-through-summer.html","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/06/kotek-lands-largest-donations-of-reelection-bid-widening-fundraising-edge-over-drazan.html","https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2026/08/11/big-donation-from-electrical-workers-puts-kotek-in-a-difficult-spot/","https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/cneSearch.do?cneSearchButtonName=search&cneSearchFilerCommitteeId=4792","https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/12/heres-how-much-money-oregon-candidates-for-governor-have-raised/88964098007/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/08/24/oregon-gubernatorial-candidates-trade-campaign-ads-jabs-as-november-election-nears/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44426842&default=candidate","https://www.oregonjournalismproject.org/republican-candidates-for-governor-raise-millions","https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/sooDetail.do?cneCommitteeId=19050","https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/cneSearch.do?cneSearchButtonName=search&cneSearchFilerCommitteeId=19050"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYOR-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYOR-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Oregon","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.765,"yes_bid":0.76,"yes_ask":0.77,"last_price":0.76,"volume":100280.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:28.721197Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYOR-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYOR-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYOR-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Oregon","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.245,"yes_bid":0.24,"yes_ask":0.25,"last_price":0.25,"volume":200103.71,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:29.862393Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYOR-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.73,"Republican":0.26,"Pacific Green Party of Oregon":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.3,"Pacific Green Party of Oregon":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Republican":0.31,"Pacific Green":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"or-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 1st Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T14:47:49.571779+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Suzanne Bonamici","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Suzanne_Bonamici.jpg"},{"name":"Barbara Kahl","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1024x1024_20260427_050324_16255.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Suzanne Bonamici","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Oregon's 1st is a heavily Democratic district (D+20 PVI) where incumbent Suzanne Bonamici has won consistently since 2012 and took 86.6% of the primary vote. She holds a commanding fundraising edge (~$817K vs. ~$4.5K for Barbara Kahl), and the Republican challenger is lightly funded in a race with no public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T14:47:26.273380Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OR","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OR01133/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OR01308/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/16/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-latest-fundraising-period/","https://www.aol.com/articles/teacher-unions-funnel-funds-democratic-133000000.html","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/barbara-kahl/positions/b21e5744-93c1-476d-8799-fd86a7e9f8e4"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"or-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T14:47:35.218314+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Beck","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/headshot-media2_20260427_051112_15813.jpg"},{"name":"Cliff Bentz","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CliffBentz.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Cliff Bentz","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Cliff Bentz is overwhelmingly favored in Oregon's 2nd District, which has voted Republican since 1981 and is the state's only district with a Republican registration advantage. Bentz won the seat with 64% in 2024, holds a roughly 10-to-1 cash-on-hand edge over Democrat Chris Beck, and faces no public polling suggesting competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T14:47:13.416555Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OR02322/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/16/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-latest-fundraising-period/","https://www.centraloregondaily.com/news/elections/oregon-2nd-district-democrats-primary-election/article_cefc1cfb-a74f-4b05-bb2a-bee8a581d283.html","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/05/19/former-democratic-oregon-lawmaker-leads-race-to-face-republican-cliff-bentz/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00725465/","https://wallowa.com/2026/04/23/dems-vying-for-bentzs-seat-address-finances-in-pendleton-forum/","https://lookouteugene-springfield.com/story/government-politics/2026/02/11/how-campaign-coffers-look-for-oregons-congressional-candidates/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"or-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:02:43.582535+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Maxine Dexter","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MD-headshot2-cropped_20260731_221411_48373_1.jpg"},{"name":"Loran Ayles","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/938660/938660.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Maxine Dexter","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Oregon's 3rd is the state's most Democratic district, and incumbent Maxine Dexter combines a strong incumbency and fundraising advantage with a Republican opponent who reported no FEC fundraising in Q2 2026 and has a limited public profile. With no public polling, the district's deep partisan lean and candidate asymmetry make a competitive outcome highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T14:49:20.897641Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4OR03192/","https://www.opb.org/article/2024/06/20/major-pro-israel-group-donation-oregon-3rd-district-congress-primary-dexter-jayapal/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/16/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-latest-fundraising-period/","https://www.wweek.com/news/2024/05/20/314-action-fund-pac-discloses-donors-who-funded-independent-expenditures-for-dexter-in-3rd-congressional-district/","https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2024/05/maxine-dexters-bid-for-congress-gets-boost-from-pro-israel-republican-donors.html"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"or-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 4th Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T13:03:35.769324+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Val Hoyle","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Val_Hoyle.jpg"},{"name":"Monique DeSpain","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MoniqueDeSpain.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Val Hoyle","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.84,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Pacific Green":0.01,"Republican":0.15},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Hoyle enters the rematch with incumbency, a district that leans Democratic, and a roughly eight-point win over DeSpain in 2024, with no public polling logged to suggest the fundamentals have shifted. DeSpain's fundraising is modest and depends heavily on a personal loan and transfers from her own committees, leaving her a narrow path in a district that has not moved away from Democrats.","takeaway":"Hoyle is clearly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of public polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["Hoyle is the two-term incumbent in a district that leans Democratic, and she defeated DeSpain by nearly eight points in the same matchup in 2024.","Hoyle holds a clear resource edge, having raised about $1.22 million this cycle and ending June 2026 with roughly $521,000 cash on hand, while DeSpain's recent receipts leaned on a $30,000 personal loan and transfers from her own PACs.","No public polling of this matchup is logged, so the district's Democratic lean, Hoyle's incumbency, and the 2024 result are the main anchors for the forecast."],"uncertainty":"No public polling of this matchup exists, so the forecast rests on the district's Democratic lean, incumbency, and 2024 results rather than current voter-level evidence, and DeSpain's recent period fundraising edge adds a modest note of caution.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T13:03:31.261625Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/val-hoyle/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00796144/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/07/16/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-latest-fundraising-period/","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/04/28/two-oregon-democrats-are-challenging-u-s-rep-val-hoyle-in-may-primary/","https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/gop-challenger-outraises-oregons-us-rep-val-hoyle-latest-fundraising-period"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.05,"Pacific Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.15,"Pacific Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.84,"Republican":0.16},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"or-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Oregon's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Oregon's 6th Congressional District","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:05:31.441752+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Andrea Salinas","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Andrea_Salinas.jpg"},{"name":"David Russ","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Russ.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Andrea Salinas","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9499,"Republican":0.0501},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Oregon's 6th District leans Democratic and incumbent Andrea Salinas has won it twice, taking 50.0% in 2022 and 53.4% in 2024, while Republican David Russ has raised roughly $12,800 against her approximately $1.61 million. With no public polling, the forecast rests on that structural and financial advantage rather than head-to-head evidence.","takeaway":"Salinas is strongly favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat, though the absence of polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["The district's Democratic lean and Salinas's two prior general-election wins (50.0% in 2022, 53.4% in 2024) give her a durable structural edge.","An overwhelming campaign-resource gap: Salinas has raised roughly $1.61 million versus about $12,800 for Russ, leaving the challenger without meaningful paid communications.","Incumbency plus a two-candidate field with no public polling or prediction-market signals pointing to a competitive race."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this race, so the estimate relies on partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct head-to-head evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:05:27.039656Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.salemreporter.com/2026/08/13/candidate-who-hoped-to-challenge-salinas-in-november-ends-campaign/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00051450&cycle=2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/top-recipients/2024?type=I","https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2024","https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/10/heres-how-much-oregons-congressional-delegation-raised-at-the-end-of-2025/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Rep.+Andrea+Salinas+Introduces+Bipartisan+Bill+to+Fund+Mental+Health+Support+for+First+Responders","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OR01240/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/oregon-district-6-race-winner-by-party/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"or-senate-2026","title":"2026 Oregon U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Oregon","state":"Oregon","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T04:06:11.150354+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jeff Merkley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jeff_Merkley.jpg"},{"name":"David Brock Smith","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Smith_20230601_085406.jpg"},{"name":"Gary Dye","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gary_Dye2024.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Henry","party":"Progressive","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Henry.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jeff Merkley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Libertarian":0.003,"Progressive":0.002,"Republican":0.025},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Oregon is a strongly Democratic state that has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and incumbent Jeff Merkley is seeking a fourth term after taking 93.2% in his primary. Republican state Senator David Brock Smith has raised only about $121,000 with roughly $29,000 cash on hand, leaving him without a credible path in a state this blue.","takeaway":"Merkley is overwhelmingly favored to win a fourth term in safely Democratic Oregon.","key_reasons":["Oregon's strong Democratic lean: Republicans have not won a Senate seat here since 2002.","Merkley is a long-serving incumbent with top-tier labor, environmental, and reproductive-rights endorsements who won his primary with 93.2%.","Brock Smith's campaign is badly underfunded, reporting roughly $29,000 cash on hand against a well-established incumbent."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists, so the forecast rests on Oregon's partisan lean, Merkley's incumbency, and Brock Smith's weak fundraising rather than direct vote-share evidence; third-party candidates Dye and Henry could also shave a few points off the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:06:08.510678Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OR","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOR-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOR-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OR05218/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEOR-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEOR-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oregon?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9775,"yes_bid":0.977,"yes_ask":0.978,"last_price":0.978,"volume":4755.2,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:13.422177Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOR-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEOR-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEOR-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.015,"yes_bid":0.008,"yes_ask":0.022,"last_price":0.022,"volume":5920.95,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:14.364459Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEOR-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Libertarian":0.003,"Progressive":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.014,"Libertarian":0.0005,"Progressive":0.0005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Libertarian":0.005,"Progressive":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.025}},{"id":"pa-governor-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania Governor Election","office":"Governor of Pennsylvania","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T01:46:26.350895+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Josh Shapiro","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/governor/images/headshot.jpeg"},{"name":"Stacy Garrity","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/StacyGarrity2024.jpg"},{"name":"Ken Krawchuk","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ken_Krawchuk.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Josh Shapiro","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.025},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro leads in all seven recent head-to-head surveys, from Quinnipiac's 59-34 on Oct. 5 to Quinnipiac's 53-40 in July, and he holds a far larger campaign treasury than Treasurer Stacy Garrity. That polling and resource gap, set against a closely divided but competitive Pennsylvania, makes a Democratic hold the strongly favored outcome.","takeaway":"Shapiro is heavily favored to win a second term, combining a wide polling lead with a large fundraising and incumbency advantage.","key_reasons":["Shapiro leads by wide margins in the newest surveys, including Quinnipiac 59-34 (Oct. 5), Susquehanna 52-31 (Sept. 30), and NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena 58-38 (Sept. 22).","Shapiro is the incumbent with a substantial financial edge, reporting roughly $37.8M cash on hand against Garrity's roughly $1.5M raised.","Markets price a Democratic win near 97.6% with deep liquidity, consistent with the polling picture."],"uncertainty":"The large leads rest on surveys taken weeks before Election Day, so polling error or late movement is the main path to a narrower result, and the third-party share remains small and hard to estimate.","based_on_poll_count":7,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T01:46:20.630469Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2026/10/shapiros-big-lead-over-garrity-has-pollster-warning-pa-governors-race-looks-like-a-rout.html","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3970","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/us/elections/josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-poll.html","https://www.readingeagle.com/2026/08/27/most-pennsylvanians-deeply-concerned-about-the-economy-poll-finds/","https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2026/09/pa-democrats-have-had-enough-of-fetterman-morning-scrapple-poll.html","https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/24/nytimes-philadelphia-inquirer-siena-poll-of-likely-pennsylvania-voters/","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3962","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYPA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYPA-26-R","https://www.campaignfinanceonline.pa.gov/Pages/CFAnnualTotals.aspx?Filer=20160016","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/josh-shapiro/summary?cycle=2023&id=6454796","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/josh-shapiro/contributors?cycle=2023&id=6454796","https://www.opensecrets.org/officeholders/josh-shapiro/industries?cycle=2021&id=6454796","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/shapiro-raises-10m-and-other-takeaways-pennsylvanias-newest-campaign-finance-reports/412715/","https://www.campaignfinanceonline.pa.gov/Pages/CFAnnualTotals.aspx?Filer=2020C0542","https://local21news.com/news/politics-government/stacy-garrity-campaign-raises-over-1-million-since-entering-pa-gubernatorial-race-pennsylvania-governor-shapiro-politics","https://www.campaignfinanceonline.pa.gov/pages/CFReportSearch.aspx","https://www.pa.gov/services/dos/search-political-campaign-finance-reports","https://www.kenk4pa.com/donate/","https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dos/programs/voting-and-elections/campaign-finance","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=PA-GOV"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYPA-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYPA-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9764999999999999,"yes_bid":0.975,"yes_ask":0.978,"last_price":0.974,"volume":165267.21,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:32.677725Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYPA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYPA-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYPA-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.025500000000000002,"yes_bid":0.022,"yes_ask":0.029,"last_price":0.034,"volume":416372.14,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:33.729988Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYPA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.025,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.978,"Republican":0.021,"Libertarian":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":19,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.06,"Libertarian":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.048}},{"id":"pa-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:05:48.886927+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brian Fitzpatrick","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brian_Fitzpatrick_official_congressional_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Bob Harvie","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bob_Harvie_20260402_045208.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brian Fitzpatrick","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.67,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.33,"Republican":0.67},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Fitzpatrick, a moderate incumbent in a purple Bucks County seat, holds a large cash advantage ($6.35M on hand vs. about $795K for Harvie) and leads four of the five available head-to-head polls, from a Public Opinion Strategies survey for his campaign at +9 to a GQR survey for House Majority PAC at +1, while a Public Policy Polling survey for the Harvie campaign was tied 41-41. Harvie's campaign-sponsored polling shows a tighter race, so the incumbent is favored but not safe.","takeaway":"Fitzpatrick is favored to keep this purple Bucks County seat, though a narrow polling edge and a competitive national environment keep it close.","key_reasons":["Fitzpatrick leads four of the five available head-to-head polls, including Public Opinion Strategies (for Brian Fitzpatrick) 51-42 on 2026-09-14 and GQR (for House Majority PAC) 49-48 on 2026-08-23, while the two Global Strategy Group surveys for the Harvie campaign show him ahead by 4 and 6 and a Public Policy Polling survey for the Harvie campaign was tied 41-41.","Fitzpatrick's fundraising and cash position dwarf Harvie's, roughly $6.35M cash on hand versus about $795K, giving him a substantial late-stage communications advantage in a costly Philadelphia-suburban media market.","Fitzpatrick's incumbency and moderate profile in a district he has held through multiple cycles, plus prediction-market pricing of about 62-63% for a Republican win, point to a favored but not entrenched incumbent."],"uncertainty":"Polling here is sparse and campaign-sponsored in both directions, and the market prices are from mid-September, so a late shift in this swing suburban seat remains the main risk to the forecast.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:05:41.719320Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-vulnerable-republican-79d","https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2026/08/31/markey-isnt-the-only-incumbent-sweating-in-massachusetts-01056494","https://politicspa.com/internal-pa-01-poll-shows-harvie-within-margin-of-error-against-fitzpatrick/150216/","https://politicspa.com/can-bob-harvie-end-brian-fitzpatricks-tenure-in-congress/146005/","https://www.notus.org/campaigns/brian-fitzpatrick-democratic-challenger-bob-harvie-poll-race","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA1-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA1-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA08277/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/brian-fitzpatrick/us_congress","https://levittownnow.com/2026/07/16/rep-fitzpatrick-commissioner-harvie-post-campaign-finance-totals/","https://fitzpatrickforpa.com/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brian-fitzpatrick/summary","https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/04/22/brian-fitzpatrick-pa01-campaign-finance-reports-super-pacs-aipac-bob-harvie-lucia-simonelli-bucks-co/89605362007/","https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/22/brian-fitzpatrick-bob-harvie-race-campaign-finance-fundraising-totals-pac-donors/90986871007/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA01181/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00901348/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/robert-harvie"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.365,"yes_bid":0.36,"yes_ask":0.37,"last_price":0.37,"volume":188988.81,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:14.160076Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for PA-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.625,"yes_bid":0.62,"yes_ask":0.63,"last_price":0.64,"volume":30715.04,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:15.307056Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.67,"Democratic":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.69,"Democratic":0.31},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.67,"Democratic":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"pa-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T14:46:34.670063+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brendan Boyle","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://boyle.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/boyle-evo.house.gov/files/styles/large/public/evo-media-image/congressman-brendan-boyle-photo-square.jpg?itok=QzfvXUZN"},{"name":"Jessica Arriaga","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jessica_Arriaga_20260321_022803.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brendan Boyle","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Pennsylvania's 2nd District is overwhelmingly Democratic by partisan registration, and incumbent Brendan Boyle enters the general with a decisive incumbency and fundraising edge over a first-time Republican challenger who has reported no campaign finance. With no polling and no apparent competitiveness, Democratic control of the seat is essentially assured.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T14:46:22.518901Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://vote.phila.gov/voting/candidates-for-office/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4PA13199/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA02205/","https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://fundvoter.org/aipac","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=13006066&default=candidate","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-pa-2/compare/brendan-boyle-vs-jessica-arriaga"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:26:36.325630+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Rabb","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Christopher_Rabb.jpg"},{"name":"Dennis Mahoney","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://mahoneyforcongress.com/assets/dennis-mahoney-BRyxUWya.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Rabb","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.03,"Republican":0},"margin_estimate":65,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"PA-03 is among the most heavily Democratic districts in the country (Philadelphia-based, no Republican on the ballot), leaving Democratic nominee Chris Rabb facing only underfunded Independent Dennis Mahoney. Rabb's primary victory in a competitive four-way field confirms party support, and the open-seat general election is strongly expected to remain Democratic.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:26:20.838040Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://vote.phila.gov/voting/candidates-for-office/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00852475/","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/congressional-race-fundraising-sharif-street-ala-stanford-20260202.html","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/PA/3","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Rabb","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00949255/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:27:28.376476+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Madeleine Dean","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/Madeleine_Dean_Official_Portrait_116th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Aurora Stuski","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/886911/886911.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Madeleine Dean","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Madeleine Dean represents a strongly Democratic Philadelphia-suburban district (D+8 PVI) and holds a commanding fundraising and experience edge over Republican challenger Aurora Stuski, who has no prior elected office and no reported campaign finance. The district's partisan fundamentals make Dean an overwhelming favorite for a fifth term despite the absence of public polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:27:17.105371Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA04116/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/madeleine-dean/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1106021","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-pa-4/compare/aurora-stuski-vs-madeleine-dean","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA04169/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00944512/","https://insideelections.com/person/aurora-stuski-manual/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District — Delaware County, southwestern Philadelphia, and parts of Chester and Montgomery counties","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:22:29.077983+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mary Gay Scanlon","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mary_Gay_Scanlon.jpg"},{"name":"Nick Manganaro","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nick_Manganaro.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mary Gay Scanlon","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Scanlon is the incumbent in a strongly Democratic D+15 suburban district with a progressive record and roughly $990K raised, while Manganaro is a first-time candidate who raised under $10K with no PAC support. The district's structural lean, incumbency, and massive resource gap make a competitive outcome highly unlikely despite the absence of polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:22:16.555349Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00944553/","https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mary-gay-scanlon/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA07200/","https://trackscanlon.com/money/","https://ballotpedia.org/Mary_Gay_Scanlon","https://ballotpedia.org/Nick_Manganaro"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District (Chester County and part of Berks County)","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:21:22.397300+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chrissy Houlahan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chrissy_Houlahan.jpg"},{"name":"Marty Young","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marty_Young_2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chrissy Houlahan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Four-term Democratic incumbent Chrissy Houlahan holds a Philadelphia-suburban district that has trended Democratic, and she enters the general with a roughly 10-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challenger Marty Young. With no public polling and a challenger who has never held elected office, the structural and financial gaps point to an overwhelming Democratic advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:21:09.410982Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA06156/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA06087/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/chrissy-houlahan/summary?cid=N00040949","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/chrissy-houlahan-pa","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District (Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and part of Monroe Counties)","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T18:03:16.426472+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ryan Mackenzie","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ryan_Mackenzie.jpg"},{"name":"Bob Brooks","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bob_Brooks.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bob Brooks","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.65,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.65,"Republican":0.35},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Bob Brooks leads in both available head-to-head surveys — Franklin & Marshall College's Sept. 9–20 poll (45–40) and GBAO Research's July survey (47–43) — and outraised Ryan Mackenzie in the second quarter of 2026. Mackenzie's incumbency, his larger cash stockpile, and a district decided by roughly a point in 2024 keep this a close race rather than a comfortable Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"Brooks holds a modest polling and fundraising edge over first-term incumbent Mackenzie in a narrowly divided district, leaving Democrats slightly favored.","key_reasons":["Brooks leads in the two head-to-head polls of the general election: Franklin & Marshall College (45–40, ended Sept. 20) and GBAO Research (47–43, ended July 2).","Brooks outraised incumbent Mackenzie in Q2 2026 (about $1.3 million to $631,000), though Mackenzie ended June with roughly $3 million on hand versus about $1.02 million for Brooks.","Mackenzie's first-term incumbency and the district's recent single-digit margins — he won by about a point in 2024 — argue against reading the polling lead as decisive."],"uncertainty":"The Franklin & Marshall survey rests on a small sample with 16% undecided, the GBAO Research survey was released by House Majority PAC, and the Kalshi market pricing Democrats near 86% is roughly three weeks stale — so the race turns on whether Brooks's polling and fundraising edge holds up against Mackenzie's incumbency and larger cash reserve in a district decided by about a point.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T18:03:05.741213Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-college-poll-release-pa-7th-and-10th-congressional-districts-september-2026/","https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-bob-brooks-leads-ryan-mackenzie","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA7-26-D","https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA7-26-R","https://www.mcall.com/2026/07/20/bob-brooks-outraises-ryan-mackenzie-in-latest-quarter-but-mackenzie-still-holds-cash-advantage-heres-a-closer-look-at-their-fundraising/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA7-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA7-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.86,"yes_bid":0.85,"yes_ask":0.87,"last_price":0.87,"volume":239856.1,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:36.268893Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA7-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA7-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA7-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for PA-7?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.135,"yes_bid":0.13,"yes_ask":0.14,"last_price":0.14,"volume":101641.57,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:37.422613Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA7-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.75,"Republican":0.25},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.64,"Republican":0.36},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.57,"Republican":0.43},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.18}},{"id":"pa-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T16:04:46.186096+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rob Bresnahan Jr.","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Rep._Rob_Bresnahan_official_photo%2C_119th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Paige Cognetti","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/meet-paige_20260701_023034_30717_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Paige Cognetti","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.66,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.66,"Republican":0.34},"margin_estimate":2.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Three head-to-head surveys — Lake Research Partners (June 23), Impact Research (June 11) and Public Policy Polling (Aug. 28, 2025) — put Paige Cognetti ahead by 1-2 points, and a heavily traded prediction market prices Democrats near 73%. Bresnahan's incumbency, union support and roughly $5.2 million raised keep the race close in a district he flipped by a narrow margin in 2024.","takeaway":"Cognetti holds a narrow polling lead and Democrats are modestly favored to flip this toss-up seat, though Bresnahan's incumbency keeps it close.","key_reasons":["Cognetti leads by 1-2 points in each of the three district head-to-head surveys, the most recent being Lake Research Partners at 47-45 on June 23.","The Kalshi market on this seat prices Democrats at about 73.5%, consistent with a modest Democratic edge in a midterm environment that typically favors the out-party.","Bresnahan's freshman incumbency, union endorsements and roughly $5.2 million raised — with about $2.6 million cash on hand — keep the seat competitive rather than safely Democratic."],"uncertainty":"The newest district poll is from June with a modest sample and no independent public survey has appeared since, so the true size of Cognetti's lead is unclear; the race turns on whether Bresnahan's incumbency and union backing outweigh the out-party environment.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T16:04:41.361512Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019f-01d0-d932-af9f-0fd6a7950000","https://www.riverreporter.com/stories/cognetti-leads-in-poll,267130","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/pennsylvania-8/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA8-26-D","https://www.thetimes-tribune.com/2026/08/04/ballots-in-bresnahan-cognetti-race-wont-feature-third-party-candidates/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA8-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4PA08124/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA08293/","https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/keystone-clashes-millions-pour-into-three-pennsylvania-races-that-could-decide-control-of-the-house/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/rob-bresnahan/us_congress/summary?cycle=2024&mpid=1325154","https://penncapital-star.com/government-politics/new-house-members-including-one-from-pa-saw-pac-donations-jump-after-getting-committee-assignments/","http://www.riverreporter.com/stories/bresnahan-campaign-announces-nfib-endorsement,271197","https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2026/tables/congressional/ConCand7_2025_12m.pdf","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/paige-cognetti/donors","https://paigeforpa.com/paige-cognetti-earns-groundswell-of-support-from-labor-as-momentum-builds-behind-her-campaign/","https://ballotpedia.org/Paige_Cognetti","https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/07/pennsylvania-cognetti-corporate-pac-money-campaign-finance-federal-government/","https://paigeforpa.com/pennsylvania-afl-cio-endorses-paige-cognetti-for-congress/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/pennsylvania/article_a6abdd17-deb0-4c5c-aa97-d43293b9a814.html","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://emilyslist.org/news/emilys-list-endorses-mayor-paige-cognetti-for-pennsylvanias-8th-congressional-district/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA8-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA8-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.735,"yes_bid":0.73,"yes_ask":0.74,"last_price":0.74,"volume":43087.14,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:40.046723Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA8-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA8-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA8-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for PA-8?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.265,"yes_bid":0.26,"yes_ask":0.27,"last_price":0.27,"volume":138027.53,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:41.398414Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA8-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.67,"Republican":0.33},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.66,"Republican":0.34},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.55,"Republican":0.45},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"pa-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:34:05.443117+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dan Meuser","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan_Meuser.jpg"},{"name":"Rachel Wallace","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://run.imgix.net/459702f5-c956-4211-b830-8e678303d32e/4a8f6b9a-a423-4d34-9be7-4498be2482e8/4a8f6b9a-a423-4d34-9be7-4498be2482e8.png?ixlib=js-3.8.0&bri=0&con=0&sat=0&high=0&shad=0&usm=0&rect=0%2C50%2C1280%2C670"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Dan Meuser","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"PA-9 is a heavily Republican district carried by Donald Trump by 38 points in 2024, and four-term incumbent Dan Meuser holds a clear financial and incumbency edge over Democratic challenger Rachel Wallace. With no public polling and no competitive signals, the Republican is overwhelmingly favored to hold the seat.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:33:49.340562Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/PA","https://www.republicanherald.com/2026/07/30/meuser-pushes-back-on-town-hall-criticism-amid-growing-protest-movement/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/dan-meuser/summary?cid=N00029416&cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA10147/","https://www.republicanherald.com/2026/05/16/campaign-finance-breaking-down-funding-and-spending-in-the-race-for-pa-s-9th-district/","https://penncapital-star.com/government-politics/q4-takeaways-fitzpatrick-has-millions-more-on-hand-than-other-pennsylvania-congressional-candidates/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA09127/","https://politicspa.com/pa-09-wallace-campaign-raises-over-250000-in-q4/145536/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:06:39.335165+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott Perry","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/scott_perry.jpg"},{"name":"Janelle Stelson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JanelleStelson.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Janelle Stelson","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.68,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.32},"margin_estimate":3,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Janelle Stelson leads in the four listed head-to-head polls, including Franklin & Marshall College's Sept 9-20 survey (47-44), and has outraised incumbent Scott Perry ($6.36M to $5.19M) as the top House fundraiser in Pennsylvania. Perry's incumbency, the roughly 5,100-vote 2024 margin, and nearly $1 million in late outside spending for him keep the race close, so the Democratic edge is real but modest.","takeaway":"Stelson holds a narrow but consistent polling edge over incumbent Perry in a tight, expensive rematch.","key_reasons":["Stelson leads the newest listed poll, Franklin & Marshall College (ended Sept 20, 2026) 47-44, and leads in the three earlier listed surveys as well.","Stelson has outraised Perry for the cycle ($6.36M vs $5.19M) with more cash on hand, funding a competitive rematch bid.","Perry's incumbency, the ~5,100-vote 2024 result, and nearly $1M in late independent expenditures supporting him keep the contest within a few points."],"uncertainty":"The newest independent survey has a small PA-10 sample (390) and a ±5.7-point margin of sampling error, and several listed polls are Democratic-sponsored, so the race could plausibly tip either way.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:34.385536Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.witf.org/2026/09/24/new-poll-voters-cite-economy-as-top-issue-in-perry-stelson-race/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/pennsylvania-us-house-10-polls-2026.html","https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-college-poll-release-pa-7th-and-10th-congressional-districts-september-2026/","https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/pennsylvania-10/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA10-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA10-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2PA04135/","https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2026/09/trump-aligned-super-pac-spends-big-to-boost-rep-scott-perrys-re-election-bid.html","https://thecommonwealthpartners.com/2026/09/11/news-brews-september-11-2026/","https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/09/us/politics/trump-midterms-maga-inc-spending.html","https://politicspa.com/keystone-clashes-millions-pour-into-three-pennsylvania-races-that-could-decide-control-of-the-u-s-house/149735/","https://www.witf.org/2026/07/23/perry-stelson-10th-district-race-for-congress-most-expensive-in-pa/","https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-politics/janelle-stelson-holds-fundraising-lead-over-scott-perry-in-pennsylvanias-10th-district/","https://www.thecentersquare.com/pennsylvania/article_eaec8f72-42b4-49e4-829d-41d4ffbe73ca.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4PA10104/","https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5828628-stelson-campaign-pennsylvania-house-fundraising/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/janelle-stelson/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/janelle-stelson/summary"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA10-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA10-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for PA-10?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.795,"yes_bid":0.79,"yes_ask":0.8,"last_price":0.79,"volume":10839.43,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:04:29.213993Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA10-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA10-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA10-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for PA-10?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.20500000000000002,"yes_bid":0.2,"yes_ask":0.21,"last_price":0.27,"volume":13700.89,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:38:49.713284Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA10-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.28},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.32},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.42},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"pa-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T19:09:07.496763+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lloyd Smucker","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lloyd_Smucker_official_congressional_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Nancy Mannion","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nancy_Mannion.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lloyd Smucker","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Pennsylvania's 11th District, covering all of Lancaster County and southern York County, carries a large Republican voter-registration advantage, and incumbent Lloyd Smucker has held the seat since 2019. Smucker's roughly $1.52M raised and $811K cash on hand far outpace Nancy Mannion's roughly $214K raised and $47K on hand, and no public polling or market signal points to a competitive general election.","takeaway":"Smucker is heavily favored to keep this Republican-leaning seat, with no polling or market signal indicating a competitive race.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican voter-registration advantage and Smucker's incumbency since 2019 give the Republican side a commanding structural edge.","Smucker holds a roughly 7-to-1 fundraising advantage over Mannion ($1.52M to $214K raised) with $811K cash on hand versus $47K, including substantial business-PAC support.","No public polling has been logged for this contest and no prediction-market signals are present, leaving the race without direct horse-race evidence."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market data exists for this contest, so the size of Smucker's winning margin is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T19:09:03.910486Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA16320/","https://lancasteronline.com/news/politics/smucker-comfortably-ahead-of-democratic-challenger-in-money-chase-sends-checks-to-other-gop-candidates/article_e12b32be-2627-486e-a02a-b594a2c8afec.html","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/lloyd-smucker","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lloyd-smucker/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00910943/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nancy-mannion/donors"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"pa-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:25:53.779779+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Summer Lee","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/slee.jpg"},{"name":"James Hayes","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Hayes.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Summer Lee","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"PA-12 is a deep-blue Pittsburgh-anchored district where incumbent Summer Lee beat the same opponent, James Hayes, by 13 points in 2024 and holds a massive financial edge ($1.65M cash on hand vs. $9.5K). No public polling exists, but district partisanship, incumbency, and a weak Republican challenge point to a safe Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:17:11.192444Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/pennsylvania-12/","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/prediction-markets/races/pa-12-house","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/PA","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00791780/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4PA12068/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2PA18200/","https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/summer-lee-james-hayes-set-for-rematch-in-pa-s-12th-congressional-district/","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jdweb-sl-launch","https://insideelections.com/person/james-dr-hayes/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:44:10.174590+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Joyce","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Joyce.jpg"},{"name":"Beth Farnham","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BethFarnham2026_2026-05-12_133111.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Joyce","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent John Joyce, first elected in 2018, faces Democrat Beth Farnham in a heavily Republican district (Cook PVI R+30+) with no public polling. Joyce's dominant fundraising and cash position ($3.76M on hand vs. Farnham's $16K) and the district's strong partisan lean make a Democratic flip highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:36:24.613409Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA13125/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/john-joyce/summary","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/John%20Joyce-J000302/donors","https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/stelson-cognetti-and-perry-are-among-pas-top-congressional-fundraisers-2026/412943/","https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-politics/joyce-holding-significant-cash-advantage-in-pa-13th-race/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/pennsylvania-district-13-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4PA13298/","https://bethfarnhamforcongress.com/endorsements/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-14-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-03T13:49:37.517458+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Guy Reschenthaler","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Guy_Reschenthaler_Official_Portrait_2022_%28cropped2%29.jpg"},{"name":"Alan Bradstock","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bradstock-Headshots-_1__20260511_171030_27630.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Guy Reschenthaler","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Guy Reschenthaler, House Chief Deputy Whip seeking a fifth term, holds an overwhelming structural edge in this heavily Republican southwestern Pennsylvania district he carried by more than 30 points in 2024. A ~$4.2M-to-$200K fundraising disparity and the absence of any competitive polling leave no realistic path to an upset.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T17:10:19.726410Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA14200/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00657833/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-pa-14/compare/alan-bradstock-vs-guy-reschenthaler","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/guy-reschenthaler","https://www.fundvoter.org/state/PA","https://triblive.com/local/regional/western-pa-congressional-incumbents-have-upper-hand-over-challengers-in-campaign-cash/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/guy-reschenthaler-pa","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/guy-reschenthaler/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00041414&cycle=2026","https://www.post-gazette.com/news/election-2024/2024/04/07/campaign-finance-leadership-pac/stories/202404050077","https://www.legistorm.com/person/bio/250883/Guy_Lorin_Reschenthaler.html","https://fundvoter.org/state/PA","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/alan-bradstock","https://ballotpedia.org/Alan_Bradstock"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-15-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T18:48:59.615838+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Glenn Thompson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Glenn_Thompson.jpg"},{"name":"Ray Bilger","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Official-Headshot_20260626_192441_30527_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Glenn Thompson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Glenn Thompson, first elected in 2008 and chair of the House Agriculture Committee, runs in a heavily Republican rural district, with no polling suggesting any competitiveness. His roughly $1.9M fundraising haul dwarfs challenger Ray Bilger's ~$140K, and the district's strong GOP structural lean makes a Democratic upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T18:48:43.228308Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8PA05071/","https://www.localcandidates.org/polotics/ray-bilger","https://www.centredaily.com/news/politics-government/article314635078.html","https://www.localcandidates.org/politics/ray-bilger","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/ray-bilger/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA15181/","https://www.centredaily.com/news/politics-government/article315566146.html"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-16-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T01:32:56.688273+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Kelly","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Kelly%20PA-16.jpg"},{"name":"Justin Wagner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/6980ff4176332e7f0f993c23/f135d445-0259-490d-8454-7777ffcfeca6/Justin+Headshot+-+No+BG.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Kelly","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Eight-term incumbent Mike Kelly holds an overwhelming structural advantage in this strongly Republican district (~51% GOP registration), reinforced by a $1.3M+ cash-on-hand war chest versus Wagner's ~$37.5K and a seat major forecasters rate as safe Republican. With no public polling, district fundamentals and incumbency point decisively to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T00:41:10.380610Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483986","https://legis1.com/news/pa-16-campaign-funding-todays-congressional","https://triblive.com/local/regional/mike-kelly-faces-challenge-from-justin-wagner-in-western-pa-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00474189/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mike-kelly/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA16379/","https://www.justinwagnerforcongress.com/about","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA16361/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"pa-house-17-2026","title":"2026 Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District","state":"Pennsylvania","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:44.432089+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Deluzio","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Deluzio.jpg"},{"name":"Tony Guy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.beavercountypa.gov/getmedia/a32e8b87-af99-48f4-97d8-94b3a926a1e8/Beaver_County_Gov_Sheriff_Tony_Guy_1.jpg?width=256&height=295&ext=.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Deluzio","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":8.5,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Likely Democratic and gives Chris Deluzio (Democratic) a 93% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 8 points. No head-to-head public poll between the current candidates was available, so the estimate rests on non-polling evidence.","takeaway":"Chris Deluzio (Democratic) is favored, with a 93% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Likely Democratic (Chris Deluzio (Democratic): 93% chance of winning).","Polling: 0 head-to-head polls of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:34.858328Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA17-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA17-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2PA17103/","https://politicspa.com/pa-17-deluzio-campaign-raises-635000-in-q4-of-2025/145481/","https://triblive.com/local/regional/western-pa-congressional-incumbents-have-upper-hand-over-challengers-in-campaign-cash/","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=PA17","https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/30/union-democrats-house-fundraising-00980980","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA17203/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA17-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA17-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for PA-17?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9564999999999999,"yes_bid":0.943,"yes_ask":0.97,"last_price":0.942,"volume":7414.43,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:39:15.476345Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA17-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEPA17-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEPA17-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for PA-17?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.036500000000000005,"yes_bid":0.016,"yes_ask":0.057,"last_price":0.04,"volume":5736.19,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:39:16.541908Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEPA17-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.92,"Republican":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"ri-governor-2026","title":"2026 Rhode Island Governor Election","office":"Governor of Rhode Island","jurisdiction":"Rhode Island","state":"Rhode Island","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T13:19:07.628097+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Helena Foulkes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Helena_Foulkes.jpeg"},{"name":"Aaron Guckian","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Aaron_GuckianRI.jpeg"},{"name":"Ken Block","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KenBlock.jpg"},{"name":"Jasjit Gotra","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"C.D. Reynolds","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Helena Foulkes","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.87,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Independent":0.11,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Rhode Island's deep Democratic statewide lean and Foulkes's 44-25-17 lead over Block and Guckian in the most recent independent UNH survey put her well ahead, and the non-Democratic vote is split across three independents plus the Republican nominee. Her roughly $3.3 million cash on hand dwarfs Guckian's roughly $30,000, though a Block-commissioned poll showing him ahead head-to-head keeps a small upset path open.","takeaway":"Foulkes is a clear favorite in a strongly Democratic state, though a fragmented field leaves some room for an independent surge.","key_reasons":["Rhode Island has not elected a Republican statewide since 2006, and the most recent independent UNH poll has Foulkes at 44% to Block's 25% and Guckian's 17%.","The anti-Democratic vote is fragmented across independents Block, Gotra and Reynolds plus Republican Guckian, structurally capping any single challenger.","Foulkes holds a large financial advantage, with about $3.3 million cash on hand at mid-year versus Guckian's roughly $30,000."],"uncertainty":"The only survey showing Block ahead is a head-to-head poll commissioned by his own campaign, and if the independent vote consolidates behind one challenger the race could tighten; prediction-market prices are also stale (mid-September) and thinly traded.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T13:19:01.489975Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2026/rhode-island/foulkes-vs-block-vs-guckian-vs-gotr","https://www.golocalprov.com/politics/new-blocks-campaign-poll-shows-he-leads-foulkes-head-to-head-in-race-for-gov-guckian-on-track-for-the-worst-gop-result-on-record","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYRI-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYRI-26-R","https://ricampaignfinance.com/RIPublic/Filings.aspx","https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/state/2026/07/31/foulkes-more-than-triples-mckees-fundraising-in-second-quarter/91126569007/","https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/05/01/foulkes-mckee-report-record-donation-hauls-as-campaign-fundraising-kicks-into-high-gear/","https://www.golocalprov.com/politics/who-are-the-money-leaders-in-the-race-for-governor-and-lt-governor","https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/02/02/does-it-matter-where-campaign-donors-live-depends-which-gubernatorial-candidate-you-ask/","https://whatsupnewp.com/2026/08/democratic-challengers-foulkes-and-khamsyvoravong-widen-cash-leads-over-incumbents-in-q2/","https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/12/01/tall-order-for-r-i-gop-aaron-guckian-enters-governors-race-focused-on-moderation-and-compassion/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYRI-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYRI-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Rhode Island","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9675,"yes_bid":0.956,"yes_ask":0.979,"last_price":0.957,"volume":12134.45,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:36.422836Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYRI-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYRI-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYRI-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Rhode Island","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.013499999999999998,"yes_bid":0.009,"yes_ask":0.018,"last_price":0.012,"volume":5122.09,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-10T22:14:06.128745Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYRI-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Independent":0.04,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.86,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.12},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Independent":0.11,"Republican":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.08}},{"id":"ri-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. Representative","jurisdiction":"Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District","state":"Rhode Island","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-19T02:28:28.698378+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gabriel Amo","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gabe-Amo.png"},{"name":"Kellie Keenan","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kellie_Keenan_20260522_234304_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Pedro DeSouza","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.voteforpedrori.com/images/pedro-headshot.png?dpl=dpl_6w1SBQjx6G41xvGDSmEemy5B5ZxT"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gabriel Amo","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Rhode Island's 1st District is a heavily Democratic seat (roughly D+12 lean) that Amo carried with 63% in 2024 as the sitting incumbent, and he enters the general election with a commanding financial and organizational edge. Neither the Republican nor the independent challenger shows meaningful funding or any polling evidence of competitiveness, so Amo is heavily favored to retain the seat.","takeaway":"Democrats are heavily favored to retain Rhode Island's 1st District, with incumbent Gabe Amo expected to win comfortably.","key_reasons":["Heavily Democratic district (D+12 partisan lean) in which Amo won the prior general election with 63% as an incumbent","Amo's overwhelming financial advantage ($1.85M cash on hand) versus Keenan's $2,332 and no reported FEC fundraising for DeSouza","No public polling or market signals indicate any competitiveness; challengers are underfunded and unproven"],"uncertainty":"With no public polling in the district, the chief uncertainties are the size of Amo's final margin and how much of the independent vote DeSouza draws, not the likely outcome.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-19T02:28:25.615421Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4RI01265/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/gabe-amo","https://www.legistorm.com/person/bio/461974/Gabriel_Felix_Kofi_Amo_Jr_.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6RI01153/","https://ballotpedia.org/Kellie_Keenan","https://www.voteforpedrori.com/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/House.phtml?v=u"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.012,"Independent":0.003},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":27,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.04,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":42,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.045}},{"id":"ri-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Rhode Island","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:37:17.937900+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Seth Magaziner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Seth-Magaziner.PNG"},{"name":"Victor Mellor","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/vic-pic-4_20260809_204202_50319_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Seth Magaziner","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.93,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Rhode Island's 2nd District has leaned Democratic for more than two decades, and two-term incumbent Seth Magaziner holds a large cash-on-hand advantage over first-time Republican nominee Victor Mellor, whose campaign is financed almost entirely by personal loans. With no public general-election poll of the district, the forecast rests on that structural Democratic lean, incumbency and fundraising rather than on measured vote preference.","takeaway":"Magaziner is clearly favored in a Democratic-leaning district, though the absence of general-election polling tempers confidence.","key_reasons":["The district has been represented by Democrats for more than two decades and has leaned Democratic in recent presidential cycles, giving the incumbent a durable structural advantage.","Magaziner is a two-term incumbent and former statewide officeholder who entered the fall with roughly $1.51M cash on hand, against $280,079 for Mellor.","Mellor's $3.02M in receipts are almost entirely self-funded ($2.195M in candidate loans, about $32K in individual contributions) with $2.175M in debt, indicating limited donor and party infrastructure behind the challenge."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election poll of the district exists, so the forecast rests on partisan lean, incumbency and fundraising rather than measured vote preference, with Mellor's self-funded spending the main variable that could narrow the margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:37:11.372241Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/08/18/three-weeks-out-mckee-is-still-20-points-behind-foulkes-in-governors-race/","https://vote.sos.ri.gov/Candidates/CandidateSearchSummary?OfficeType=592","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2RI02184/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Seth+Magaziner+Announces+%24475%2C000+for+Foster+Emergency+Communications+Upgrades","https://www.businessinsider.com/results-seth-magaziner-allan-fung-rhode-island-2nd-district-election-2022-11","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6RI02318/","https://www.johnstonsunrise.net/news/conversation-with-vic-mellor-u-s-house-hopeful/article_889ad26a-267c-42ec-94e3-9b7b8488c7ae.html","https://vicmellor.com/about-vic-mellor/","https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/17/maga-candidate-vic-mellor-dominates-spending-in-ri-cd2-race/91261221007/","https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2026/08/21/republican-cd2-candidates-will-debate-after-all-mellor-skoly-accept-invite-from-nbc10/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.93,"Republican":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":13,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.87,"Republican":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"ri-senate-2026","title":"2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"Rhode Island","state":"Rhode Island","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-19T02:34:18.677013+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jack Reed","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jack_Reed.jpg"},{"name":"Raymond McKay","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RaymondMcKay.png"},{"name":"Michael Bahry","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MichaelBahry2026_2026-06-24_153610.jpg"},{"name":"Jon Lindley","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jack Reed","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.975,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.975,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":21,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Jack Reed is the heavy favorite to win a sixth term: he leads Raymond McKay by 16-20 points across three UNH general-election polls this cycle, including 51%-31% in late August, in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2000. McKay ran unopposed in the primary but has minimal campaign resources, while Reed won renomination with roughly 76% of the vote and holds a decisive financial edge.","takeaway":"Jack Reed is overwhelmingly favored to win a sixth term in Rhode Island's safely Democratic Senate seat.","key_reasons":["Reed, a five-term incumbent, led McKay by roughly 20 points (51%-31%) in the most recent UNH poll and by 16-20 points across all three 2026 surveys.","Rhode Island has not elected a Republican senator since 2000, and Reed won his primary with about 76% of the vote.","McKay's campaign is lightly funded (~$7.6K cash on hand), and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 98%."],"uncertainty":"Undecided voters (13% in the latest UNH poll) and low-turnout or third-party dynamics could modestly shift the final margin, but they do not threaten Reed's dominant position.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-09-19T02:34:14.194347Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1989&context=survey_center_polls","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1970&context=survey_center_polls","https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1945&context=survey_center_polls","https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/rhode-island/mckay-vs-reed","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATERI-26-D","https://electionresults.ri.gov/results/public/RhodeIsland/elections/RI2026StatewidePrimary","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATERI-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00238907/","https://responsiblestatecraft.org/congress-ndaa-vote/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jack-reed/us_congress/summary?mpid=1140961","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jack-reed/us_congress/organizations?mpid=1140961","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jack-reed/us_congress/industries?mpid=1140961","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4RI00051/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/raymond-mckay","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6RI00288/","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Rhode_Island,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michael-bahry","https://whatsupnewp.com/2026/06/salve-regina-lecturer-michael-bahry-launches-independent-u-s-senate-bid/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6RI00254/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATERI-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATERI-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Rhode Island?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.977,"yes_bid":0.97,"yes_ask":0.984,"last_price":0.981,"volume":18121.05,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:16.454268Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATERI-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATERI-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATERI-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Rhode Island?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0155,"yes_bid":0.006,"yes_ask":0.025,"last_price":0.023,"volume":4710.53,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:17.401834Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATERI-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.975,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.987,"Republican":0.012,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":21,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":20,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.027}},{"id":"sc-governor-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina Governor Election","office":"Governor of South Carolina","jurisdiction":"South Carolina","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T13:18:11.164334+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jermaine Johnson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jermaine-Johnson.jpg"},{"name":"Alan Wilson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Alan_Wilson_in_August_2025.jpg"},{"name":"Walid Hakim","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Walid_Hakim.jpeg"},{"name":"Michael Addison","party":"United Citizens Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Addison.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Alan Wilson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9091,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.0849,"Green":0.003,"Republican":0.9091,"United Citizens":0.003},"margin_estimate":10.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Wilson leads Johnson by roughly 10 points in the most recent survey (45.2% to 35.0%, with about 16% undecided) and by 8 points in July polling, in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998. Wilson's four-term tenure as attorney general, statewide name recognition, and roughly 4-to-1 fundraising advantage over Johnson reinforce the Republican edge.","takeaway":"Alan Wilson holds a clear but not insurmountable lead in a Republican-leaning open-seat race.","key_reasons":["Wilson leads in every available poll, including a 45.2%-35.0% October survey and a 45%-37% July survey, with a large undecided bloc that would need to break almost entirely to Johnson to close the gap.","South Carolina's strong Republican lean — no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1998 and recent GOP statewide margins in the high single digits to mid teens — makes a Democratic win an outlier outcome.","Wilson, a four-term attorney general, has far greater statewide name recognition and roughly $2.9 million raised versus about $754,000 for Johnson."],"uncertainty":"Only two public polls exist, both with sizable undecided shares, and the race turns on whether that undecided bloc breaks toward Johnson or splits roughly evenly, which would leave Wilson's lead intact.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T13:18:06.196931Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.fitsnews.com/2026/10/06/exclusive-alan-wilson-enjoys-double-digit-lead-in-s-c-governors-race/","https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/south-carolina/forecast/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSC-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSC-26-D","https://www.transparencyusa.org/sc/candidate/ermaine-l-johnson","https://ethicsfiling.sc.gov/public/candidates-public-officials/person/campaign-disclosure-reports/reports?personId=55806&seiId=39097&officeId=78545","https://ethicsfiling.sc.gov/public/candidates-public-officials/person/campaign-disclosure-reports/report-detail?personId=55806&seiId=39097&officeId=78545&reportId=417559","https://www.transparencyusa.org/sc/candidate/jermaine-l-johnson","https://www.wrdw.com/2026/01/12/candidates-south-carolina-governor-raise-millions-dollars/","https://www.transparencyusa.org/sc/candidate/alan-wilson","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6687356","https://abcnews4.com/news/state/alan-wilsons-campaign-reports-record-fundraising-ahead-of-2026-governors-race-pamela-evette-nancy-mace-poll","https://legis1.com/news/south-carolina-governor-race-2026-carolinas-open","https://ethicsfiling.sc.gov/public/candidates-public-officials/person/campaign-disclosure-reports/reports?personId=5886&seiId=9969&officeId=73273","https://ethicsfiling.sc.gov/public/candidates-public-officials/person/campaign-disclosure-reports/finances?personId=5886&candidateFilerId=5886&campaignId=73273&seiId=9969&officeId=73273","https://www.live5news.com/2026/04/11/wilson-evette-bring-millions-q1/","https://www.live5news.com/2026/01/10/candidates-governor-raise-millions-dollars/","https://ethicsfiling.sc.gov/public/home"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYSC-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYSC-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Carolina","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0595,"yes_bid":0.051,"yes_ask":0.068,"last_price":0.065,"volume":17998.32,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:39.873274Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSC-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYSC-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYSC-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Carolina","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9490000000000001,"yes_bid":0.936,"yes_ask":0.962,"last_price":0.96,"volume":15129.4,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:41.131560Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSC-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.085,"Green":0.003,"United Citizens":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.965,"Green":0.002,"United Citizens":0.003},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14.5,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.16,"Green":0.01,"United Citizens":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.145}},{"id":"sc-house-01-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 1st Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T09:06:15.190397+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Nancy Lacore","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nancy_Lacore_20260211_012857.png"},{"name":"Jenny Honeycutt","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JennyCHoneycutt_HomeHero-1920w_2026-05-05_205645.jpg"},{"name":"Bill Reeside","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/William_Reeside_26.jpeg"},{"name":"Clayton Cuteri","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Clayton_Cuteri.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jenny Honeycutt","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.6773,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.3088,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.009,"Republican":0.6773},"margin_estimate":4.5,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Jenny Honeycutt leads in the three most recent head-to-head surveys — co/efficient (46-40, ended October 1), Public Policy Polling (41-40, ended September 10), and GQR (50-48, ended July 22) — and the open seat's Republican-leaning fundamentals plus Trump's July 2026 endorsement give her a modest edge. Nancy Lacore's larger fundraising ($2.28M vs $556K through June 30) and DCCC Red to Blue backing keep the race within reach for Democrats.","takeaway":"Republicans hold a modest edge in this open, Republican-leaning Lowcountry seat, though the race stays competitive.","key_reasons":["Honeycutt leads in the three most recent head-to-head polls, including the newest co/efficient survey (46-40, ended October 1) and Public Policy Polling (41-40, ended September 10).","The open seat sits in a Republican-leaning Lowcountry district, and Trump's July 2026 endorsement of Honeycutt consolidates the GOP base.","Lacore's fundraising advantage ($2.28M vs $556K through June 30) and Red to Blue program backing keep Democratic upside alive and cap the likely Republican margin."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse and only the newest survey shows a lead wider than two points, so the race could tighten; Lacore's fundraising edge and a possible national midterm swing are the main unknowns.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:09.982362Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/south-carolina-1/","https://x.com/coefficientpoll/status/2106116052870402454","https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-nancy-lacore-has-a-clear-path-to-victory-in-sc-01","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC01359/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nancy-lacore/donors","https://cawp.rutgers.edu/node/151771","https://www.nancylacore.com/media","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC01334/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/jenny-honeycutt/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC01342/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/bill-reeside","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00947259/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/clayton-cuteri"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.68,"Democratic":0.31,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.76,"Democratic":0.23,"Libertarian":0.009,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.57,"Democratic":0.4,"Libertarian":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.19}},{"id":"sc-house-02-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:20:09.705961+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joe Wilson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joe_Wilson.jpeg"},{"name":"Zyon Khalifa","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Zyon_Khalifa_20260401_095152.png"},{"name":"Dayna Alane Smith","party":"Workers Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://capfireslam.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/dayna-pic-cf500x.jpg?w=640"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joe Wilson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Joe Wilson is heavily favored in a district Trump carried by 14 points in 2024, against a first-time Democratic nominee with roughly $12K raised and negligible cash on hand. No public polling exists, but the structural signals point to an overwhelming Republican advantage with the Workers Party candidate a minor factor.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:19:52.866229Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2SC02059/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/joe-wilson/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joe-wilson","https://www.citizen.org/article/military-industrial-complex-contributions-report/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/zyon-khalifa/","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/zyon-social","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-sc-2/general"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sc-house-03-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:09:11.900598+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sheri Biggs","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://lirp.cdn-website.com/a9d7b90b/dms3rep/multi/opt/Sheri+Biggs+Headshot-1920w.png"},{"name":"Eunice Lehmacher","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EuniceLehmacher_headshot_1500pix_20260426_002641_2556.jpeg"},{"name":"Brian Corriea","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brian_Corriea_20260415_054405.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sheri Biggs","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.97,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Carolina's 3rd District is the state's most conservative seat and has not elected a Democrat to Congress in decades, and incumbent Republican Sheri Biggs holds a commanding incumbency and fundraising edge over Democrat Eunice Lehmacher and Libertarian Brian Corriea. With no public polling, the district's partisan structure and Biggs' unopposed primary advance make a Republican hold the clear baseline.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:02:15.833636Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4SC01313/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC03090/","https://vrems.scvotes.sc.gov/Candidate/CandidateSearch?electionId=22596","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Congresswoman+Sheri+Biggs+Introduces+National+Guard+Protective+Zone+Act+to+Address+Harassment+and+Assault","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brian-corriea","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/eunice-lehmacher/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/eunice-lehmacher/about","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/SC"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sc-house-04-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 4th Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:38:17.301075+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"William Timmons","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/William_Timmons.jpg"},{"name":"Courtney McClain","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CourtneyMcClain2025.JPG"},{"name":"Jessica Ethridge","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jessica-Ethridge.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"William Timmons","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.015,"Other":0.005},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Timmons is a four-term incumbent in a reliably Republican Upstate district who won the June primary decisively with 65.8%, holds a roughly 50-to-1 fundraising edge over his Democratic opponent, and faces a first-time, low-resource challenger. With no public polling, incumbency and structural district fundamentals make a Republican hold overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:26:54.071419Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/SC","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/south-carolina-4/","https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sc-house-05-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 5th Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T09:14:24.934193+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Wes Climer","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Wes_Climer.jpg"},{"name":"Mallory Dittmer","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mallory-Dittmer-Headshot_20260602_151741_39508_1.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Wes Climer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":24,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Carolina's 5th District is a Republican stronghold that Ralph Norman carried by roughly 27 points in 2024, and state Sen. Wes Climer enters the general election with about a 6-to-1 fundraising advantage over Democrat Mallory Dittmer. With no public polling and a first-time Democratic nominee, there is little evidence of a competitive contest.","takeaway":"Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to hold this deep-red open seat, with Climer's fundraising edge reinforcing the structural advantage.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican lean is deep: Cook PVI R+11 and a 63.5% Republican share in the 2024 House race give the GOP a large structural cushion.","Climer, a sitting state senator since 2016, reported roughly $884,000 raised through June 30, 2026 versus about $140,000 for Dittmer, a wide resource gap in a low-information open-seat race.","Dittmer is a first-time candidate with no legislative record, and no public polling or market signal points to a Democratic path in this seat."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists and the seat is open, so the estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency-adjacent experience, and fundraising rather than direct head-to-head data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T09:14:16.143641Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC05202/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/SC/5","https://magatech.fyi/executives/benjamin-navarro/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/SC","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/wes-climer","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC05228/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":26,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Democratic":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"sc-house-06-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 6th Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T03:24:09.877316+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James Clyburn","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Clyburn.jpg"},{"name":"John Peterson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/680422cd3d684a4c05017377/615aa311-9c29-4393-9160-630328b3c848/1000003846.jpg"},{"name":"Joseph Oddo","party":"Alliance Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joseph_Oddo_2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"James Clyburn","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Clyburn's 34-year incumbency in a heavily Democratic majority-minority VRA district, preserved after the May 2026 GOP redistricting bid failed in the state Senate, leaves the seat structurally uncompetitive. The GOP nominee has no reported campaign fundraising and the third-party bid is minimal, reinforcing the Democratic hold in the absence of polling.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T03:23:57.052454Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/james-clyburn/summary?cid=N00002408","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2SC02042/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC06184/","https://ballotpedia.org/John_Peterson_(South_Carolina)","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00001556&cycle=2026","https://www.facebook.com/abcnews4/posts/us-rep-james-e-clyburn-said-friday-he-has-secured-50-million-in-federal-funding-/1346173130886149/","https://readsludge.com/2019/01/16/meet-the-most-corporate-pac-reliant-reps-in-congress/","https://kffhealthnews.org/elections/campaign/","https://ivoterguide.com/candidate/92445/race/27675/election/1421","https://bettercandidates.org/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/totals/?api_key=DEMO_KEY&election_year=2026&state=SC&office=H&district=06"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sc-house-07-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Carolina's 7th Congressional District","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T01:26:12.088893+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Russell Fry","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Russell_Fry.jpg"},{"name":"John Vincent","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JohnVincent2025.png"},{"name":"Branden Brown","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Branden_Brown_20260412_125823.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Russell Fry","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This is a heavily Republican district that has never elected a Democrat, where incumbent Russell Fry won 65% in 2024 and holds a roughly 6-to-1 fundraising edge over John Vincent. The lone public poll shows Fry ahead (41.1% to 36.9% with 22% undecided), but district fundamentals point to an overwhelming Republican hold regardless of the modest head-to-head margin.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T01:26:01.574290Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.instagram.com/p/DboNmUdiGyC/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/south-carolina-us-house-7-polls-2026.html","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/south-carolina-7/","https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2SC07280/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/russell-fry/summary","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/russell-fry","https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article316853237.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Fry","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SC07034/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/SC","https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_9_Democratic_primary)","https://www.vincentforcongress.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8SC07089/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H8SC07089/1949950/","https://ballotpedia.org/Branden_Brown"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sc-senate-2026","title":"2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate Election","office":"U.S. Senate","jurisdiction":"South Carolina","state":"South Carolina","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T01:46:40.163777+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Darline Graham","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DarlineGraham_2026-08-05_162931.jpg"},{"name":"Annie Andrews","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Annieandrews.jpg"},{"name":"Mark Hackett","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Hackett.jpg"},{"name":"Kasie Whitener","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/KasieWhitener2025.png"},{"name":"Jack Ellison","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jack_Ellison_20260414_120402.jpg"},{"name":"Cindy Glaser","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Paul Sedletsky","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Darline Graham","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8192,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.003,"Democratic":0.1698,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.003,"Republican":0.8192},"margin_estimate":6.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Carolina's strong Republican lean, Darline Graham's incumbency and the Graham name make the GOP the clear favorite, reinforced by a well-traded market putting Republicans near 87%. Head-to-head polling is far tighter — Graham +1.1 in Trafalgar Group's Sept. 23–25 survey and +2.1 in InsiderAdvantage's Sept. 8–9 survey, with Impact Research's Aug. 24 poll tied — and Andrews's roughly $10.8M raised keeps Democratic odds meaningfully above zero.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold this seat, though narrow polling and Andrews's fundraising edge keep it closer than the state's partisan lean.","key_reasons":["South Carolina's deep Republican lean — no Democratic Senate win since 1998 — plus Graham's incumbency and family name anchor the GOP advantage.","Head-to-head polling is close: Graham leads by 1.1 points in Trafalgar Group's Sept. 23–25 poll and 2.1 points in InsiderAdvantage's Sept. 8–9 poll, while Impact Research's Aug. 24 survey was tied at 41–41 with Kasie Whitener at 5.","Andrews's roughly $10.8M raised dwarfs Graham's roughly $700K, keeping Democratic odds above zero, but the Kalshi market near 86.5% Republican confirms the GOP remains the clear favorite."],"uncertainty":"Only three head-to-head polls exist, two of them showing a margin inside about two points, and the market snapshot dates to mid-September, so the true margin could be tighter than the state's partisan baseline implies.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T01:46:33.461749Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.wjcl.com/article/south-carolina-senate-poll-andrews-graham/73928606","https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/2026/09/28/sc-senate-race-2026-darline-graham-annie-andrews-new-polls/91986546007/","https://drannieandrews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/IMPACT-SC-SEN-POLL-MEMO-AUG-2026.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESC-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESC-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04437/","https://www.magareportcards.com/blog/darline-graham-excessive-donations/","https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article316853237.html","https://legis1.com/news/south-carolina-senate-runoff-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04239/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/annie-andrews/donors","https://drannieandrews.com/dr-annie-andrews-raises-over-2-14-million-in-q1-a-steady-grassroots-momentum-in-south-carolina-senate-race/","https://vrems.scvotes.sc.gov/Candidate/CandidateDetail/?candidateId=24195&electionId=22596&searchType=Default","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0SC06245/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04247/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kasie-whitener","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04221/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04304/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SC04312/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATESC-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATESC-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Carolina?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.135,"yes_bid":0.13,"yes_ask":0.14,"last_price":0.13,"volume":1572685.47,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:22.827069Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESC-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATESC-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATESC-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.865,"yes_bid":0.86,"yes_ask":0.87,"last_price":0.87,"volume":901851.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:21.099105Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESC-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.84,"Democratic":0.15,"Independent":0.005,"Constitution":0.003,"Libertarian":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.17,"Constitution":0.003,"Libertarian":0.003,"Independent":0.004},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.2,"Constitution":0.01,"Libertarian":0.005,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.06}},{"id":"sd-governor-2026","title":"2026 South Dakota Governor Election","office":"Governor of South Dakota","jurisdiction":"South Dakota","state":"South Dakota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T04:05:31.581086+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Larry Rhoden","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Larry_Rhoden_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Dan Ahlers","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan-Ahlers.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Larry Rhoden","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974, and incumbent Larry Rhoden enters the general election with a consolidated party base after a 71%-29% runoff win and a large fundraising advantage over Dan Ahlers, whose gubernatorial fundraising is not documented. With no general-election polling available, the state's deep Republican lean and market pricing near 97% point to a comfortable Rhoden win.","takeaway":"Rhoden is heavily favored to win a full term in this deeply Republican state.","key_reasons":["South Dakota is one of the most Republican states and has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974; recent GOP gubernatorial wins have typically landed in the 25-35 point range.","Incumbent Larry Rhoden won a contested July runoff 71%-29%, showing a consolidated base, and reported roughly $1.88 million raised in the runoff period, while Democrat Dan Ahlers has no documented gubernatorial fundraising.","No general-election polling exists, but prediction markets price a Republican win near 97-98%, consistent with the state's partisan lean."],"uncertainty":"There is no general-election polling and the only market signals are thin-liquidity Kalshi contracts with wide bid/ask spreads, so the size of the margin is far less certain than the likely winner.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:05:26.863647Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSD-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSD-26-D","https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774","https://www.keloland.com/news/capitol-news-bureau/rhoden-raises-1-88m-in-runoff-doeden-wont-say/","https://dakotafreepress.com/2026/07/24/rhoden-reveals-runoff-fundraising-figure-doeden-keeps-cash-secret/","https://www.aberdeennews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/15/gov-larry-rhoden-faces-runoff-election-look-at-his-record-donors/90912216007/","https://sdcfr.sdsos.gov/Search/SearchResults.aspx?cid=972&rid=3512","https://ballotpedia.org/Dan_Ahlers","https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2026/04/30/individual-contribution-limit-doesnt-restrain-big-donors-in-south-dakota-governor-race/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYSD-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYSD-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in South Dakota","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0275,"yes_bid":0.002,"yes_ask":0.053,"last_price":0.043,"volume":4728.33,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:43.805657Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSD-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYSD-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYSD-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in South Dakota","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.977,"yes_bid":0.956,"yes_ask":0.998,"last_price":0.956,"volume":4502.45,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:44.761360Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYSD-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":24,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":32,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"sd-house-2026","title":"2026 South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"South Dakota","state":"South Dakota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T23:43:10.784920+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marty Jackley","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marty-Jackley.PNG"},{"name":"Nikki Gronli","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/4f41ed_fc6f70c34cd143e3a3a6100f987be32a~mv2.jpg"},{"name":"Jack Pittman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marty Jackley","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Dakota's deep Republican lean — the GOP has won every congressional election since 2008 and no Democrat has held the seat since 2004 — makes a Republican hold the overwhelming most likely outcome in this open seat. Jackley's statewide name recognition as sitting attorney general, his roughly 79% primary win, Trump endorsement, and roughly $1.44M raised versus Gronli's $262K reinforce a structural edge over a Democrat who advanced unopposed and a nominal independent with no reported finance activity.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T23:42:57.718776Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SD01109/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SD01166/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00909689/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/marty-j-jackley/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=SD01","https://www.sdpb.org/politics/2025-10-16/campaign-finance-reports-show-early-lead-for-jackley-large-war-chest-for-thune","https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/11/01/campaign-roundup-republican-announces-for-us-senate-other-races-grow-polls-and-money-info-emerge/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6SD01141/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00918961/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nicole-gronli/about/f18cd1b2-aee8-4de0-ba16-b24fd035ac90","https://secure.actblue.com/directory/SD","https://ballotpedia.org/Jack_Pittman","https://dakotawarcollege.com/independent-candidate-files-paperwork-to-run-for-congress/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"sd-senate-2026","title":"2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"South Dakota","state":"South Dakota","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T06:07:43.213916+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mike Rounds","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Mike_Rounds_official_Senate_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Brian Bengs","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bengsforsouthdakota.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/brian-bengs-feat-img.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mike Rounds","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9099,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.0001,"Independent":0.09,"Republican":0.9099},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"South Dakota's deep Republican lean, Mike Rounds's incumbency, and his presidential endorsement anchor this race for the GOP. Head-to-head polling is mixed — Zenith Research had Rounds +6 and Public Policy Polling +3 in September, while Lake Research Partners showed Bengs +7 and Impact Research was tied — but the state fundamentals and high-volume market pricing near 93% for Republicans point to a comfortable Rounds win.","takeaway":"Rounds is favored to hold this Republican seat, with South Dakota's partisan lean outweighing a competitive independent challenge.","key_reasons":["South Dakota's strong Republican baseline plus Rounds's incumbency and presidential endorsement give him a large structural edge.","The two September surveys put Rounds ahead (Zenith Research +6, Public Policy Polling +3), while earlier and other surveys range from a tie to a Bengs lead.","Prediction markets with substantial volume price a Republican win near 93%, leaving only a small residual chance for Bengs."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse and mixed — a Lake Research Partners survey put Bengs ahead while the September polls put Rounds up 3 to 6 — so the race turns on whether Rounds's incumbency and the state's Republican lean hold against an unusually visible independent challenge.","based_on_poll_count":6,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:04:33.373923Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/09/30/Zenith-Research/Brian-Bengs-South-Dakota-2026-09-24-2026-09-27","https://www.ellisinsight.com/2026/09/18/","https://northernplainsnews.substack.com/p/johnsons-endorsement-gives-south","https://www.poliwave.com/us/sd/sen-fed","https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-a3c9-d916-a39f-ebedb2e00000","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESD-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESD-26-D","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/mike-rounds/pacs?cid=N00035187&cycle=2024&type=I","https://aberdeeninsider.com/brian-bengs-early-fundraising-highest-for-non-republican-candidate-in-nearly-two-decades/","https://dakotafreepress.com/2026/05/25/independent-bengs-has-money-momentum-in-senate-race-against-rounds-democrat-beaudion-does-not/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6SD01117/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATESD-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATESD-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Dakota?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0015,"yes_bid":0.001,"yes_ask":0.002,"last_price":0.002,"volume":36115.29,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:25.304754Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESD-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATESD-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATESD-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.934,"yes_bid":0.931,"yes_ask":0.937,"last_price":0.937,"volume":83663.25,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:25.380970Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATESD-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Independent":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Independent":0.09,"Democratic":0},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Independent":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"tn-governor-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee Governor Election","office":"Governor of Tennessee","jurisdiction":"Tennessee","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T08:08:15.220928+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Sen._Marsha_Blackburn_%28R-TN%29_official_headshot_-_116th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JG4G_20260427_175724_1397.jpg"},{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/laurenpinkston.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marsha Blackburn","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.045,"Independent":0.005,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Tennessee has not elected a Democrat statewide since 2006, and Marsha Blackburn leads every public general-election poll, from +9 (TargetSmart, Sept 12) to +24 (Beacon Poll, May 7), while outraising Jerri Green by more than 10-to-1. The open seat is Republican-held, Blackburn holds Trump's endorsement and consolidated GOP support, and the independent field is not positioned to overcome that baseline.","takeaway":"Blackburn is heavily favored to keep this open Republican-held seat, with Tennessee's deep-red lean and a consistent polling lead.","key_reasons":["Blackburn leads all four public polls of the matchup, ranging from +9 (TargetSmart, Sept 12) to +24 (Beacon Poll, May 7).","Blackburn's roughly $10.8M campaign treasury dwarfs Green's ~$850K, and she carries Trump's endorsement in a state with a strong Republican baseline.","Prediction markets price a Republican win at about 95%, consistent with the polling and the state's partisan lean."],"uncertainty":"Public polling is sparse and includes sponsor-affiliated surveys, and the closest recent reading (TargetSmart, +9) leaves a narrow tail for an upset, though the state's partisan lean and Blackburn's resource edge make that unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T08:08:05.349298Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://wreg.com/news/mid-south/poll-blackburn-green-front-runners-in-tn-governors-race/","https://tnfirefly.com/tennessee-governor-race/polls","https://www.tnprogressfund.com/s/Progress_Fund_September_2026_Tennessee_Poll_Public_Results-2.pdf","https://www.beacontn.org/august-2026-beacon-poll-results","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYTN-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYTN-26-R","https://whofundstn.org/candidates/marsha-blackburn-governor/","https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/07/15/marsha-blackburn-the-100m-woman/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8TN00337/","https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/08/03/blackburn-moves-4-8m-from-us-senate-campaign-account-in-apparent-legal-workaround/","https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/12/blackburn-gets-2-5m-in-pac-support-to-bolster-1-1m-in-spending/90887622007/","https://whofundstn.org/candidates/jerri-green-governor/","https://tnfirefly.com/tennessee-governor-race/finance","https://timesnews.net/news/386107/few-pac-donors-for-dem-governor-candidate-jerri-green/","https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/pithinthewind/corporate-pac-money-tennessee-governor-race/article_562fba22-2e02-5157-a7e5-db70f1376c5f.html","https://whofundstn.org/candidates/lauren-pinkston-governor/","https://whofundstn.org/races/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYTN-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYTN-26","title":"Will 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Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 1st Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T16:32:41.844536+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Diana Harshbarger","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e5ef6ebd3b2b55fb79cb1a6/1583771266055-8L0LNNOUZJL14FOYP8YL/DSC05041-Edit-2.JPG"},{"name":"Kristi Burke","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Untitled-_1024-x-1024-px__20260504_183637_19243.png"},{"name":"Joshua Ray Ashburn","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/School-Pic_20260511_144122_27518.jpg"},{"name":"Richard 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With no public polling and no competitive signal, a Republican hold is overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-02T16:32:25.432754Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee's_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/06/30/inside-the-race-for-tennessees-1st-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN01537/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TN01118/","https://johnsoncitypress.com/news/375033/pacs-fuel-majority-of-harshbargers-campaign-funding/","https://timesnews.net/news/382504/harshbarger-campaign-receiving-mostly-out-of-state-donations/","https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/tennessee-us-house-1-general-election/forecast","https://timesnews.net/news/360478/burke-to-contest-harshbarger-for-first-congressional-district-seat/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN","https://politics1.com/tn.htm","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TN01191/","https://campbellforcongress2026.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Billy_Cody","https://ballotpedia.org/Tyler_McClain"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T14:56:46.665559+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tim Burchett","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TIM_BURCHETT.jpg"},{"name":"Michaela Barnett","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michaela_Barnett_20250924_082750.jpeg"},{"name":"Bruce Fine","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bruce_Fine_20260514_174908_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Adam Heimerman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/adamheimerman_2026-05-20_212218.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tim Burchett","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":40,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Tim Burchett, unopposed in the August 6, 2026 primary, runs in a Knoxville-anchored district with a roughly 34-point Republican presidential lean and no public polling indicating competitiveness. Democratic challenger Michaela Barnett has raised about a sixth of Burchett's funds, and neither independent has reported meaningful campaign resources.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T14:56:35.427072Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["http://sos.tn.gov/elections/2026-candidate-lists","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8TN02119/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN02170/","https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2026/02/19/tn-congress-campaign-fundraising-2026-elections/88611052007/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=6607163&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tim-burchett/summary","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/TN/2","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michaela-barnett","https://fundvoter.org/state/TN","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/michaelafortn","https://fineforcongresstn.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Bruce_Fine","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN02188/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN","https://www.military.com/house-candidate-who-allegedly-shot-flock-cameras-gets-thousands-legal-donations"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:31:03.960881+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chuck Fleischmann","party":"Republican Party","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/02/Chuck_Fleischmann_118th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Anna Golladay","party":"Democratic Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/golladay-headshot-2_20260626_155333_42641_1.jpeg"},{"name":"Dean Arnold","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://m.media-amazon.com/images/S/amzn-author-media-prod/30tte1uv9kfsufles66ap9g9gs._SX450_CR0%2C0%2C450%2C450_.jpg"},{"name":"Jean Howard-Hill","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JeanHowardHill.jpg"},{"name":"Rodney Joe King","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AC9A2765-Copy_20260804_050237_43328_1.jpg"},{"name":"Donnie Lynn Ownby","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Edward John Roland","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chuck Fleischmann","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This deep-red Chattanooga-area district (R+18 PVI) has been held by Republican Chuck Fleischmann since 2011, and he faces a severely underfunded Democratic challenger plus five independents, with no public polling suggesting competitiveness. Incumbency, district partisanship, and a fractured non-Republican field make a Republican hold essentially certain.","takeaway":"Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to hold Tennessee's 3rd District, with incumbent Chuck Fleischmann heavily favored to win re-election.","key_reasons":["Deep-red district (R+18 PVI, rated Solid/Safe Republican) with a long-serving incumbent who ran unopposed in the primary.","Democratic challenger Anna Golladay is severely underfunded (~$55K raised) with no public polling indicating competitiveness.","Five independent candidates split the non-Republican vote, further insulating Fleischmann."],"uncertainty":"There is no district-level polling, and the May 2026 redistricting added new counties, so the exact margin is uncertain even though the outcome is not.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:31:01.072702Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.newschannel5.com/news/tennessees-redrawn-congressional-districts-a-full-guide-to-every-candidate-running-in-2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/house","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/charles-fleischmann/summary?cid=N00030815","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/charles-j-chuck-fleischmann","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_6_Republican_primary)","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_6_Democratic_primary)","https://www.ballotready.org/people/anna-golladay","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN03210/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN03244/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.995,"Democratic":0.004,"Independent":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":43,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":32,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.045}},{"id":"tn-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 4th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T03:29:18.647956+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott DesJarlais","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Scott_DesJarlais.jpg"},{"name":"Victoria Broderick","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/VictoriaBroderick2025.jpg"},{"name":"Jacob Anders","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jacob_Anders_26_2026-05-26_041755.png"},{"name":"Clay Faircloth","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Clay_Faircloth_TN.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Scott DesJarlais","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais is a heavy favorite in a strongly Republican district (PVI R+11), having won the 2024 general election by more than 40 points and cleared the 2026 primary with about 66%. Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick is the same 2024 nominee with modest fundraising (~$58K raised, ~$8.5K cash on hand), and the two independents are unlikely to alter the fundamentals.","takeaway":"Republicans are overwhelming favorites to hold Tennessee's 4th District, with DesJarlais expected to win by a wide margin.","key_reasons":["District has a strong Republican lean (PVI R+11) and DesJarlais won the 2024 general by 40+ points as the incumbent.","DesJarlais cleared a three-way primary with about 66%, while Broderick's campaign has very limited resources (~$58K raised, ~$8.5K cash on hand).","No public polling exists, and the two independent candidates are unlikely to materially change the race's fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"Confidence is limited by the absence of any public polling and by the newly redrawn district map, which adds uncertainty to the exact margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T03:29:14.489526Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://tennesseelookout.com/voter-guides/contests/congressional-district-4/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TN04270/","https://whofundstn.org/races/","https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/07/16/victoria-broderick-congress-tennessee-district-4/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.985,"Democratic":0.012,"Independent":0.003},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Democratic":0.06,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.055}},{"id":"tn-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 5th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T01:38:17.270481+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chaz Molder","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chaz_Molder_20251010_072251.jpeg"},{"name":"Charlie Hatcher","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Charlie_Hatcher.png"},{"name":"James Johnson","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Johnson.jpg"},{"name":"Micheál O'Leary","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Micheal-Oleary-ballot_20260815_194954_32742_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Charlie Hatcher","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The May 2026 redistricting created a solidly Republican-leaning district in which roughly 82% of voters are new to the seat, and Republican Charlie Hatcher enters the general election as a strong favorite after defeating the incumbent in the primary with unified GOP institutional support. No public polling of the actual Hatcher-Molder matchup exists, so the Republican lean is based on district composition and race context rather than survey data.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:37:59.416105Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://pro.stateaffairs.com/tn/news/molder-ogles-poll-findings","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN05397/","https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/02/04/columbia-mayor-molder-holds-financial-advantage-in-5th-district-race/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/TN/5","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dw_tn05","https://dccc.org/chaz-molder-added-to-dcccs-coveted-red-to-blue-program/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN05405/","https://fox17.com/news/local/did-outside-spending-redistricting-influence-congressman-andy-ogles-primary-upset","https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/16/tn-elections-fundraising-congress-races/90942198007/","https://ballotpedia.org/James_Johnson_(Tennessee_congressional_candidate)","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN","https://oleary4congress.com/","https://ballotpedia.org/Miche%C3%A1l_O%27Leary"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 6th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T15:15:12.885837+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Johnny Garrett","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Johnny_Garrett_20260116_062757.jpg"},{"name":"Mike Croley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/mcroley_2026-06-09_205718.png"},{"name":"Christopher B. Monday","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ChristopherMonday2025.jpg"},{"name":"Angus Purdy","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AngusPurdy2023.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Johnny Garrett","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.95,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This open seat sits in a strongly Republican district where Trump won by roughly 27 points, and GOP nominee Johnny Garrett is a well-funded state House whip who won a competitive primary. The Democratic nominee is badly out-raised and faces steep district fundamentals, making a Republican hold highly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T15:01:35.959858Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN06213/","https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2025/10/17/republican-johnny-garrett-van-hilleary-fundraising-6th-district-congress/86710860007/","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/TN/6","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN06171/","https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_6_Democratic_primary)","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN06189/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/TN/06/2026/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 7th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T01:56:52.366218+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Matt Van Epps","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Matt_Van_Epps.jpg"},{"name":"Darden Copeland","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Darden_Copeland_20250824_093556.jpg"},{"name":"Andrew Koontz","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Lowell Reynolds","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Lowell_Reynolds_20260411_114520.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Matt Van Epps","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Matt Van Epps holds a district rated Safe/Solid Republican (R+11) that Trump carried by over 20 points in 2024, and he advanced unopposed while outraising his opponent roughly 2.6-to-1. No public polling exists, but district fundamentals and incumbency make a Democratic upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:56:39.310864Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN07161/","https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/21/house-democratic-super-pac-drops-1-million-on-tennessee-special-election-00664768","https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/pithinthewind/7th-congressional-district-fundraising-update/article_9ae1333e-0972-4b98-add0-870315bac2a3.html","https://rollcall.com/2025/11/21/tennessee-special-election-democrats-republicans/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN07286/","https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/pithinthewind/financial-disclosures-tennessee-governor-congress/article_20d06f7f-10f5-4201-9f27-90e0f541d3cc.html","https://tennesseelookout.com/2025/09/26/three-candidates-put-in-1-million-of-their-own-money-for-oct-7-middle-tennessee-u-s-congressional-primary/","https://fundvoter.org/state/TN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN06288/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN05330/","https://ballotpedia.org/Lowell_Reynolds","https://www.lowellforcongress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 8th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T15:34:02.683723+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"David Kustoff","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Kustoff.jpg"},{"name":"Heidi Kuhn","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/IMG-5303_20260626_160126_42643_1.jpg"},{"name":"Adam D. Austill","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/953351/adam-d-austill.png"},{"name":"Wendell Blankenship","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/824153/wendell-wells.png"},{"name":"Antonio Futch","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://cdn.memphisvoyager.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/c-PersonalAntonioFutch__MN3A6736_1692375111705-e1693111450748-1000x600.jpg"},{"name":"Pamela Moses","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PamelaMoses2026_2026-08-24_153540.jpeg"},{"name":"Horace Taylor","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Horace_Taylor_26_2026-04-30_154023.png"},{"name":"Henry Ward III","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"David Kustoff","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The redrawn 8th District retains a strong Republican lean, and five-term incumbent David Kustoff faces a Democratic challenger who won a divided primary with 51.8% plus six underfunded independents. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's partisan makeup, incumbency, and Kustoff's roughly 30-to-1 fundraising advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T15:14:11.467504Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Tennessee%27s_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TN07103/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/david-kustoff/summary","https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/04/tennessee-congressional-races-fundraising/91164625007/","https://whofundstn.org/races/","https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/cox-oil/summary?id=D000049829","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN08367/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TN","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN08383/","https://ballotpedia.org/Adam_Austill","https://ballotpedia.org/Wendell_Blankenship","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN08391/","https://ballotpedia.org/Antonio_Futch","https://ballotpedia.org/Pamela_Moses","https://tennesseelookout.com/briefs/pamela-moses-former-memphis-mayoral-candidate-indicates-run-for-u-s-senate/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TN08342/","https://ballotpedia.org/Henry_Ward_III"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tn-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Tennessee's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Tennessee's 9th Congressional District","state":"Tennessee","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T02:19:17.367370+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Justin J. 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With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's overwhelming partisan lean and incumbency, making a Republican hold near-certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:50:38.894502Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX01352/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/texas-1/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX.phtml","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX01112/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00796086/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/nathaniel-moran/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/nathaniel-moran/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00922625/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Democratic_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:50:17.323716+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Steve Toth","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steve_Toth.jpg"},{"name":"Shaun Finnie","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Shaun-Finnie-Headshot_20260813_224510_51164_1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Steve Toth","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-02 is a strongly Republican suburban Houston district, and Republican Steve Toth, a conservative state representative, won the GOP nomination by defeating a four-term incumbent in the primary. Democrat Shaun Finnie is a first-time candidate with no prior electoral base, so district partisanship gives Republicans an overwhelming general-election advantage despite the open seat and Finnie's fundraising edge.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:49:48.689571Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX08175/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX02251/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/TX/02/2026/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T02:34:37.336107+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Keith Self","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Keith_Self%2C_official_portrait%2C_118th_Congress_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Evan Hunt","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/67fadcf11912d9559c3d19a1/8011a769-5fab-4b32-9a6c-9d77467cbf70/Header+JPEG+2.jpg?format=1500w&content-type=image%2Fjpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Keith Self","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.89,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.89,"Democratic":0.11},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"TX-03 is a strongly Republican district (R+10) that the GOP has held since 1968, and incumbent Keith Self carries both a fundraising advantage and a well-established local profile against Democrat Evan Hunt. With no district-level public polling available, the fundamentals point to a clear Self advantage rather than a competitive contest.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to hold TX-03, with incumbent Keith Self holding a strong partisan lean and fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["The district's R+10 lean and Republican control since 1968 make a Democratic flip unlikely absent contrary polling evidence.","Self holds a fundraising edge over Hunt ($645,503 vs. $446,506 raised through June 30, 2026), while Hunt reported only about $43,878 in cash on hand.","No independent district-level public polling or prediction-market signal suggests the race is closer than the district's fundamentals imply."],"uncertainty":"No independent district-level public polling exists and the newly adopted congressional map adds some uncertainty, so the margin is far less certain than the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T02:34:34.079482Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/keith-self/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX00064/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00791293/","https://tx3dnews.com/analysis-keith-self-fundraising-tx03/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX03234/","https://insideelections.com/person/evan-hunt/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Democratic":0.07},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.83,"Democratic":0.17},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"tx-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 4th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:53:26.524947+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pat Fallon","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Pat_Fallon.jpg"},{"name":"Jason Pearce","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jason_Pearce_20251210_114048.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pat Fallon","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Texas's 4th District is heavily Republican (R+12 PVI), and incumbent Pat Fallon combines a strong incumbency advantage with a dominant fundraising edge (~$790K raised vs. ~$16K) against a first-time Democratic challenger. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's strong partisan lean and candidate field strength rather than measured voter sentiment.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:53:09.686780Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/05/27/texas-2026-november-general-election-candidates-paxton/90267004007/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TX04219/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-tx-4/compare/jason-pearce-vs-pat-fallon","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX04174/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/pat-fallon/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 5th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-02T18:36:48.090046+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lance Gooden","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://gooden.house.gov/vendor/_accounts/lancegooden/_skins/hathaway/images/Gooden_Official_Portrait.png"},{"name":"Chelsey Hockett","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chelsey_Hockett_20251201_073628.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lance Gooden","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":26,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Lance Gooden holds a commanding structural edge in a district that has voted heavily Republican in recent cycles, backed by roughly $1.33M cash on hand versus roughly $5K for first-time Democratic nominee Chelsey Hockett. With no public polling available, the forecast rests on district lean, incumbency, and the wide campaign-finance gap.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-02T18:36:31.946893Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/texas-5/forecast/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX05197/","https://chelseyhockettforcongress.com/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lance-gooden/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00662601/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/lance-gooden","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-tx-5/general"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 6th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T15:51:04.657527+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jake Ellzey","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jake-Ellzey.jpg"},{"name":"Danny Minton","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Danny_Minton_25.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jake Ellzey","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Jake Ellzey holds a strongly Republican-leaning Dallas-Fort Worth district, cleared his primary with 66.3% of the vote, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand edge over Democrat Danny Minton, who advanced unopposed. No public polling exists, but the district's partisan lean and incumbency make a Republican hold highly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T15:50:43.541262Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00770438/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Ellzey","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/jake-ellzey/us_congress/organizations?cycle=2022&mpid=1120441","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/combat-veterans-for-congress/C00469239/candidate-recipients/2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00893842/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX25203/","https://secure.actblue.com/donate/danny-rejects-aipac?refcode=website-endorsement"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 7th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T02:54:19.731747+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Lizzie Pannill Fletcher","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/LIZZIE_FLETCHER.jpg"},{"name":"Alexander Hale","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alexander_Hale_20251215_053047.png"},{"name":"Espoir Ngabo","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://janrvuropqrnptyieksp.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/politician-images/espoir-ngabo-1778325201461.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Lizzie Pannill Fletcher","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Rep. Lizzie Fletcher is a four-term Democratic incumbent in a solidly Democratic western Houston district (D+13 PVI) facing a first-time Republican challenger with roughly $76K raised and an underfunded Green nominee. With no public polling, district fundamentals, incumbency, and a massive fundraising gap overwhelmingly favor her re-election.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T02:54:06.910584Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX07151/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX07177/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8TX07140/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/lizzie-fletcher/us_congress/pacs?cycle=2020&mpid=1094263","https://www.eenews.net/articles/meet-the-top-house-recipients-of-oil-and-gas-money/","https://ballotpedia.org/Lizzie_Pannill_Fletcher","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/lizzie-fletcher/summary","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2024/texas-campaign-finance-2024/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX","https://ballotpedia.org/Alexander_Hale","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-texas-candidate-hot-seat-after-rival-exposes-familys-dem-donations-doesnt-make-sense","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Texas","https://ballotpedia.org/Espoir_Ngabo"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 8th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-24T14:55:18.399901+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jessica Steinmann","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JessicaSteinmann.png"},{"name":"Laura Jones","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/e82687_92493407e020414e955a1b13ead7b568~mv2.png"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jessica Steinmann","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"This open seat sits in a heavily Republican district (R+13 PVI) that has not elected a Democrat in over two decades, and Republican nominee Jessica Steinmann holds a massive structural and financial edge. Steinmann reported roughly $2.06M in receipts versus Laura Jones's ~$22K, and she carries endorsements from Trump, Abbott, and Cruz in a district with no public polling but strong Republican fundamentals.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-24T14:54:46.484858Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX08209/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/30/texas-republican-women-congress-house-record-steinmann-mealer-2026/","https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/03/04/crypto-election-pac-fairshake-marks-first-wins-in-2026-u-s-congressional-primaries","https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2026/tables/congressional/ConCand7_2025_12m.pdf","https://www.opensecrets.org/donor-lookup/results?cand=winred&order=desc&page=3&sort=A","https://secure.anedot.com/maggies-list/jessica-steinmann","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TX08145/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 9th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:03:48.092534+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Alex Mealer","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alex_Mealer_2026.jpg"},{"name":"Leticia Gutierrez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Leticia_Gutierrez_20251222_033209.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Alex Mealer","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.86,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.14,"Republican":0.86},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The forecast rates this race Likely Republican and gives Alex Mealer (Republican) a 86% chance of winning, with an estimated margin of about 14 points. The estimate draws on 1 public poll with a head-to-head matchup between current candidates.","takeaway":"Alex Mealer (Republican) is favored, with a 86% chance of winning.","key_reasons":["Rating: Likely Republican (Alex Mealer (Republican): 86% chance of winning).","Polling: 1 head-to-head poll of the current candidates.","Method: the median of 3 independent model estimates."],"uncertainty":"This is an estimate, not a certainty, and it can shift as new polls and information arrive.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:03:41.569839Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105323650731983023","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX9-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX9-26-D","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX09140/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/14/texas-congress-runoffs-us-house-outside-money-pacs/","https://www.gilmermirror.com/2026/05/05/texas-9th-congressional-district-gop-runoff-who-is-running-and-what-to-know/","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/article/texas-gop-redistricting-trump-approval-midterms-22363884.php","https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/texas-congressional-candidates-report-first-fundraising-numbers-since-primary/article_5e2ed1a8-179d-4b44-af8a-b830cd8ee7fa.html","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/TX/9","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX09231/","https://fundvoter.org/state/TX","https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousetx9/who-will-win-tx09/kxhousetx9-26"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX9-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX9-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-09?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.185,"yes_bid":0.18,"yes_ask":0.19,"last_price":0.19,"volume":12401.21,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:41:02.527653Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX9-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX9-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX9-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-09?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.81,"yes_bid":0.8,"yes_ask":0.82,"last_price":0.81,"volume":11121.47,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:41:03.688448Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX9-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.14},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"tx-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 10th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:54.948420+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chris Gober","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chris_Gober_26.jpg"},{"name":"Caitlin Rourk","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CaitlinRourk2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chris Gober","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.91,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.09,"Republican":0.91},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Texas's 10th is an open seat with a strongly Republican profile — an R+10 PVI and a 2024 presidential margin of 60% to 38% — and Republican nominee Chris Gober holds a wide fundraising edge over Democrat Caitlin Rourk. The lone head-to-head poll, a campaign-commissioned Change Research survey reported October 9, shows Gober ahead 48% to 41%.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to win this open, strongly Republican seat, with Chris Gober leading in the only available poll.","key_reasons":["District fundamentals are strongly Republican: an R+10 PVI and a 2024 presidential margin of 60% to 38% set a high baseline for the GOP in this open seat.","Gober's fundraising (~$2.56 million, largely self-funded) and Trump endorsement far outpace Rourk's ~$364,000 raised through June 30, 2026.","The only head-to-head poll, a campaign-commissioned Change Research survey reported October 9, 2026, shows Gober ahead 48% to 41%."],"uncertainty":"Only one head-to-head poll exists — a campaign-commissioned Change Research survey with unspecified field dates — so the race turns on whether the district's strong Republican lean and Gober's fundraising edge hold against any late movement toward Rourk.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:51.155955Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-midterms-2678066434/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX10221/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/12/texas-10th-congressional-district-gop-primary-chris-gober-trump/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/01/texas-congress-ai-super-pacs-artificial-intelligence-regulation-2026-midterms/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/20/texas-crypto-currency-pacs-fairshake-menefee-green/","https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-whos-funding-the-fight-for-texass-10th-district-to-replace-rep-michael-mccaul","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX31102/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00910695/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":11,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.85,"Democratic":0.15},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"tx-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 11th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:25:07.626513+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"August Pfluger","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/August-Pfluger.PNG"},{"name":"Claire Reynolds","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/clairereynolds.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"August Pfluger","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.01,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican August Pfluger holds a heavily Republican West Texas district with a roughly 10-to-1 GOP voter registration advantage and a strongly conservative partisan lean, and he faced no primary opposition. With no public polling and a well-funded incumbent, the seat is a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:24:47.730408Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TX11230/","https://www.citizen.org/article/fossil-favors/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX11112/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-12-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 12th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 12th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:18:04.295583+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Craig Goldman","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Craig_Goldman.jpg"},{"name":"Angela \"Heli\" Rodriguez Prilliman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://bluevoterguide.org/candimgs/TX/TX_id389694_Heli_Rodriguez_Prilliman_20260105_113718.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Craig Goldman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This Fort Worth-area seat is overwhelmingly Republican territory (R+11 PVI and a 24-point Trump margin in 2024), and first-term incumbent Craig Goldman holds a decisive financial edge with roughly $1.5M cash on hand against a Democratic challenger with no active committee for this race. With no public polling, the forecast rests on district fundamentals and incumbency, which point decisively to a Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:17:43.608490Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/TX","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00855528/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/TX/12/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4TX00607/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Democratic_primary)"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-13-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 13th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 13th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:21:50.016041+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ronny Jackson","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ronny_Jackson_117th_U.S_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Mark Nair","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MarkNair2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ronny Jackson","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.04,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Texas's 13th District is one of the most Republican-leaning seats in the country (R+23 PVI), with no Democratic victory since the early 1990s, and incumbent Ronny Jackson cruised through his primary with 89.5%. No public polling exists, but the district's partisan composition and Jackson's incumbency make a Democratic upset highly implausible.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:21:32.659273Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://ballotpedia.org/Mark_Nair"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-14-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 14th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 14th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:22:27.641274+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Randy Weber","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Randy_Weber.jpg"},{"name":"Thurman Bill Bartie","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ThurmanBartie2026.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Randy Weber","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Randy Weber holds an overwhelming structural advantage in a strongly Republican R+12 district, backed by a roughly 36-to-1 fundraising edge over a first-time federal challenger. With no public polling and no competitive signals, the race is a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:22:13.271550Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/personal-finances/randy-weber/net-worth?cid=N00033539&year=2017","https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2022/10/10/checks--imbalances-fec-audit-finds-texas-congressmans-campaign-violated-finance-laws/","https://insideelections.com/person/thurman-bill-mr-bartie/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-15-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 15th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 15th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:06:56.630850+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Monica De La Cruz","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MonicaDeLaCruzHernandez1.jpg"},{"name":"Bobby Pulido","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bobby_Pulido.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bobby Pulido","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.75,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.75,"Republican":0.25},"margin_estimate":5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Four head-to-head polls from May through September 2026 show Bobby Pulido leading Monica De La Cruz by margins of 2 to 13 points, and prediction markets price a Democratic win near 82%. De La Cruz's incumbency, fundraising edge, and the district's Republican lean keep the race competitive, but the polling and market signals point to a Democratic advantage.","takeaway":"Bobby Pulido holds a consistent polling lead over incumbent Monica De La Cruz, making Democrats modestly favored to flip this South Texas seat.","key_reasons":["Four public polls from May to September 2026 show Bobby Pulido ahead, including the Texas Southern University survey (+5) and Applecart (+2) alongside two Normington Petts and Associates surveys (+6 and +13).","Prediction markets price a Democratic win at roughly 82% as of mid-September 2026, with substantial trading volume.","Monica De La Cruz's incumbency, roughly $5.27 million raised and $2.46 million cash on hand, plus the district's Republican lean, keep the race from being a runaway."],"uncertainty":"The district's Republican lean and South Texas polls' history of understating Republicans could mean the true margin is narrower than the polling suggests, and the widest lead rests on a single September survey.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:50.506861Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/texas-us-house-15-polls-2026.html","https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a8debe648e3721adb0534b6/1787685864204/SouthTexasCDs2026.pdf","https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-flip-texas-house-seat-trump-won-12280819","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX15-26-D","https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/05/27/texas-2026-november-general-election-candidates-paxton/90267004007/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX15-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TX15124/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/monica-de-la-cruz/us_congress/summary?mpid=1134644","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/monica-de-la-cruz/donors","https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/heres-a-look-at-the-top-lines-from-texas-july-campaign-finance-reports/article_0bc50754-759d-4272-9aef-c12071072f46.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00919985/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/bobby-pulido/donors","https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tejano-music-star-boosted-by-late-outside-spending-for-his-texas-congressional-campaign/","https://dccc.org/2026-red-to-blue/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX15-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSETX15-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.825,"yes_bid":0.82,"yes_ask":0.83,"last_price":0.82,"volume":502015.14,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:41:27.607439Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX15-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX15-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSETX15-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-15?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.175,"yes_bid":0.17,"yes_ask":0.18,"last_price":0.17,"volume":1851674.02,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:41:28.721529Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX15-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.75,"Republican":0.25},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.79,"Republican":0.21},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.42},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.21}},{"id":"tx-house-16-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 16th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 16th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-27T21:19:17.732729+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Veronica Escobar","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/VERONICA_ESCOBAR_RESIZE.jpg"},{"name":"Adam Bauman","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Bauman_20251111_024054.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Veronica Escobar","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Texas's 16th District carries a D+11 PVI and has not elected a Republican in decades, and four-term incumbent Veronica Escobar holds a commanding fundraising lead while GOP challenger Adam Bauman has reported no FEC activity. With no national Republican investment and no public polling, structural factors make a Democratic victory virtually certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T21:18:32.376825Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_16th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://elpasomatters.org/2026/04/17/el-paso-news-may-26-primary-runoff-election-gop-republican-socorro-sisd-olivia-troye/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8TX16109/","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=44045126&default=candidate","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/veronica-escobar/summary?cid=N00041702","https://theappeal.org/congress-ice-contractor-contributions-pacs-execs/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Texas"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-17-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 17th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 17th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:19:39.373571+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pete Sessions","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Pete_Sessions.jpg"},{"name":"Casey Shepard","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Casey_ShepardTX1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pete Sessions","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"TX-17 was redrawn under an August 2025 map designed to strengthen Republican seats statewide, and the district carries a well-established GOP lean across Waco, Temple, and Williamson County. Incumbent Pete Sessions, a long-serving Republican with roughly $1.05 million raised, faces a first-time Democratic challenger who reported only about $8,800 in receipts, with no public polling suggesting competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:19:18.464742Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485301","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX03126/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX17168/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_17th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/casey-shepard/about/333fab0a-8ebf-4a54-992b-0f7021d0a5e7"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-18-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 18th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 18th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:20:21.316362+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Christian Menefee","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/40/Christian_Menefee%2C_official_portrait_%28119th_Congress%29.jpg"},{"name":"Ronald Whitfield","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/910055/910055.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Christian Menefee","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"The redrawn 18th District is one of the most Democratic seats in the country (D+29 PVI), and incumbent Christian Menefee holds a decisive structural edge over a Republican challenger with no website, no reported fundraising, and no prior electoral base. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's extreme partisan lean, incumbency, and the challenger's near-total absence of campaign infrastructure.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:20:05.199233Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_18th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00899831/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_18th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Republican_primary)","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485306","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/22/texas-18th-congressional-district-democratic-primary-corporate-super-pacs-crypto-christian-menefee-al-green/","https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/which-midterm-candidates-is-crypto-industry-backing-2026-08-03/","https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-whos-fueling-the-fight-for-texass-18th-congressional-district-primary","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/2026/article/texas-18th-congressional-district-candidates-21234995.php"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-19-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 19th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 19th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:53:10.272962+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tom Sell","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Sell_20251209_044209.png"},{"name":"Kyle Rable","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kyle_Rable_20250508_084803.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tom Sell","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This open West Texas seat is among the most Republican districts in the country, with Donald Trump carrying it by 52 points in 2024 and the general election featuring a well-funded GOP nominee against a lightly funded Democrat in a post-primary environment. Tom Sell's decisive runoff win and strong agribusiness-backed fundraising make a Republican hold near-certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:52:39.444523Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485311","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX19206/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tom-sell/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kyle-rable/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/texas/federal/texas-district-19","https://www.kacu.org/local-news/2026-02-25/tom-sell-is-the-front-runner-in-the-money-race-as-he-seeks-the-republican-nomination-for-tx-19","https://texascorn.org/tcpa-endorses-tom-sell-for-congress/","https://www.selltexastrue.com/press/tom-sell-continues-fundraising-momentum","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX19198/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kyle-rable","https://texasaflcio.org/sanantonio/news/union-first-candidate-marcos-velez-advances-primary-runoff-lieutenant-governor","https://www.instagram.com/p/DToKGGID0Hv/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-20-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 20th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 20th Congressional District (San Antonio and Bexar County)","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T23:49:19.250355+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Joaquin Castro","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joaquin_Castro.jpg"},{"name":"Edgardo Baez","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Edgardo_Baez_20250723_011447.png"},{"name":"Anthony Tristan","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TX_27_Congressional_candidate_Anthony_J_Tristan.JPG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Joaquin Castro","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-20 is a D+16 San Antonio/Bexar County seat held since 2013 by seven-term senior committee member Joaquin Castro, who cleared his primary with 88.2%. Republican Edgardo Baez is a first-time candidate with roughly $48,500 in receipts and about $21,500 cash on hand, while independent Anthony Tristan has reported $0 raised — no plausible path for either in this strongly Democratic district.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T23:41:19.343004Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_20th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX20113/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX35011/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/joaquin-castro/us_congress/industries?cycle=2022&mpid=1045386&type=I","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2024/texas-campaign-finance-2024/","https://sanantonioreport.org/campaign-fundraising-san-antonio-2026-congressional-races-q1/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX27273/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-21-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 21st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 21st Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:53:48.633237+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Teixeira","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MarkTeixeira2026.png"},{"name":"Kristin Hook","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kristin_Hook_20260311_082749.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Teixeira","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-21 is a reliably Republican open seat that Trump carried by 23 points in 2024, and the GOP nominee combines high name recognition with a large financial and endorsement advantage. With no public polling, the district's strong partisan lean and candidate context point to a safe Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:53:38.196349Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_21st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX21301/","https://sanantonioreport.org/campaign-fundraising-san-antonio-2026-congressional-races-q1/","https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/texas-congressional-candidates-report-first-fundraising-numbers-since-primary/article_5e2ed1a8-179d-4b44-af8a-b830cd8ee7fa.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX21108/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00917658/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/mark-teixeira","https://www.thetexasvoice.com/congressional-races-take-shape-as-new-fundraising-numbers-are-released/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-tx-21/compare/kristin-hook-vs-mark-teixeira","https://www.sacurrent.com/news/san-antonio-news/a-pro-mamdani-medicare-for-all-scientist-is-running-to-replace-chip-roy-in-congress/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-22-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 22nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 22nd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T05:02:49.785011+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Trever Nehls","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://www.trevernehlsforcongress.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/trever.jpg"},{"name":"Marquette Greene-Scott","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/MarquetteGreene-Scott2026.jpg"},{"name":"Demile James","party":"American Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Trever Nehls","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9299,"party_probabilities":{"American Independent":0.01,"Democratic":0.06,"Independent":0.0001,"Republican":0.9299},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"The 22nd District is a strongly Republican Houston-area seat that the retiring incumbent won by roughly 30 points in 2024, and the open-seat environment does not erase that structural advantage. Trever Nehls combines a well-known family name, a Trump endorsement, military and law-enforcement credentials, and roughly four times the Democratic nominee's fundraising, while Marquette Greene-Scott has no public polling showing a competitive race.","takeaway":"Republicans are strongly favored to hold Texas's 22nd District, with Trever Nehls carrying the structural and financial edge.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Republican lean persists in an open-seat year; the prior incumbent won here by about 30 points in 2024.","Trever Nehls has high name identification through his brother's political operation, a Trump endorsement, and a military/law-enforcement profile, plus a large fundraising advantage (~$206K vs ~$54K).","Greene-Scott's grassroots-funded campaign and prior loss in the same district offer no evidence of a competitive general election, and the third-party candidate reports no financial activity."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market pricing exists for this race, so the estimate rests on partisan lean and candidate fundamentals, and a national environment shift in 2026 is the main unknown.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T05:02:40.994271Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-whos-fueling-the-tx-22-election-2026-after-troy-nehls-steps-aside","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_22nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Republican_primary)","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/TX/22","https://thetexan.news/election-war-room/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX22197/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Texas","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX22259/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.93,"Democratic":0.06,"American Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.025,"Independent":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":21,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.13,"American Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.11}},{"id":"tx-house-23-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 23rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 23rd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:08:15.785209+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brandon Herrera","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Brandon_Herrera_2025.png"},{"name":"Katy Padilla Stout","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Katy_Padilla_Stout_20251207_031237.jpeg"},{"name":"Ben Mendoza","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Ben_Mendoza.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brandon Herrera","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.79,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.79,"Democratic":0.196,"Independent":0.014},"margin_estimate":9,"rating":"lean_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Herrera leads the two available district matchup polls (47-41 in late July, 42-40 in March) and holds a large fundraising advantage in a district Donald Trump carried by roughly 15 points in 2024. Padilla Stout's post-primary fundraising surge and the open seat keep this short of a safe Republican outcome, but the structural lean and polling lead favor Herrera.","takeaway":"Herrera is favored in this open, Republican-leaning border district, leading both matchup polls and outraising Padilla Stout.","key_reasons":["TX-23 is a strongly Republican district that Trump carried by roughly 15 points in 2024 and that Republicans have held since 2015, giving Herrera a large structural edge in an open-seat race.","Herrera leads both publicly reported district matchup polls, 47-41 in the Remington Research Group survey ending July 28 and 42-40 in the Public Policy Polling survey ending March 11.","Herrera has reported roughly $1.94 million through June 30 plus about $1.26 million in third-quarter receipts, far outpacing Padilla Stout's roughly $485,000 through June 30, though much of his money is out-of-district and self-funded."],"uncertainty":"Only two district matchup polls exist and the newest closed in late July, so the race turns on whether Herrera's polling lead and out-of-district-funded spending edge hold up against Padilla Stout's post-primary fundraising surge in a border district with no incumbent on the ballot.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:08:10.710069Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/08/19/exclusive-brandon-herrera-leads-democrat-katy-padilla-stout-in-texas-congressional-race/","https://www.texastribune.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/TX23-PPP-poll.pdf","https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/independent-declarations-2026.shtml","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX23120/","https://brandonherreraforcongress.com/news/press-releases/herrera-campaign-announces-1261794-raised-in-q3/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brandon-herrera/donors","https://campaignlegal.org/document/clc-alleges-brandon-herrera-texas-congressional-candidate-illegally-concealed-campaign","https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/08/memes-and-machine-guns-how-brandon-herrera-built-a-path-to-congress/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/22/texas-congress-delegation-net-worth-millionaires-2026-midterms/","https://brandonherreraforcongress.com/news/press-releases/","https://sanantonioreport.org/campaign-fundraising-san-antonio-2026-congressional-races-q1/","https://www.sacurrent.com/news/san-antonio-news/watchdog-accuses-brandon-herreras-congressional-campaign-of-breaking-campaign-finance-law/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/05/texas-dccc-adds-tony-gonzales-congressional-district-target-list-2026-house/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX23273/","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas-take/article/katy-padilla-stout-goes-longshot-contender-bid-22231138.php","https://emilyslist.org/candidate/katy-padilla-stout/","https://www.boldpac.com/candidates/katy-padilla-stout","https://www.boldpac.com/","https://emilyslist.org/news/emilys-list-endorses-katy-padilla-stout-for-texas-23rd-congressional-district/","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://elpasomatters.org/2023/11/27/special-election-el-paso-city-council-district-2-candidates/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-tx-23/general","https://sanantonioreport.org/profile/ben-mendoza-2026-candidate-for-texas-23rd-congressional-district/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.85,"Democratic":0.14,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":6,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Democratic":0.11,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.21,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":9,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"tx-house-24-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 24th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 24th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:00:25.420089+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Beth Van Duyne","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Beth-VanDuyne.PNG"},{"name":"Kevin Burge","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kevin_Burge_20250613_111426.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Beth Van Duyne","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Beth Van Duyne holds an overwhelming structural advantage in this R+8 suburban Dallas–Fort Worth seat, having won by 21 points in 2024 and out-raising her challenger by more than 10-to-1. With no public polling and no competitive signals in the race data, Kevin Burge's challenge is a long shot.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:59:58.409293Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485336","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_24th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/beth-van-duyne/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0TX24209/","https://www.capitol-trail.com/politician/beth-van-duyne-tx","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX24172/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/kevin-burge/donors"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-25-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 25th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 25th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:42.133521+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Roger Williams","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":null},{"name":"Dione Sims","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DioneSims.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Roger Williams","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8966,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.8966,"Democratic":0.1034},"margin_estimate":16.5,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Texas's 25th District remains Republican-leaning even after the 2025 remap made it somewhat more competitive, and incumbent Roger Williams holds a large fundraising and name-recognition advantage over first-time Democratic nominee Dione Sims. No public polling of the general election matchup has been logged, so the size of Williams's advantage is not directly measured.","takeaway":"Williams is clearly favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, though the absence of polling leaves real uncertainty.","key_reasons":["The district's Republican lean persists after the 2025 remap, and Williams has won this seat in prior cycles by comfortable margins.","Williams is a long-serving incumbent and committee chair with roughly $1.4M raised this cycle, while Sims reports no campaign finance totals in public disclosures.","Sims's Fort Worth roots and Juneteenth profile give her a recognizable platform, but no public polling indicates a competitive race."],"uncertainty":"No public polling or prediction-market signals exist for this matchup, so the margin is unverified and could be narrower or wider than the estimate.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:37.843610Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00031545","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX33040/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/roger-williams/donors","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Roger%20Williams-W000816/donors","https://thedailytexan.com/2018/10/25/for-anyone-planning-to-live-past-2040-climate-change-is-personal/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX25237/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.91,"Democratic":0.09},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.86,"Democratic":0.14},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"tx-house-26-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 26th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 26th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:42:37.477024+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brandon Gill","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Brandon_Gill.jpg"},{"name":"Steven Shook","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Steven_Shook_2025.png"},{"name":"Phil Gray","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PhilGray.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brandon Gill","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.035,"Other":0.005},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Brandon Gill represents a heavily Republican suburban North Texas district that Trump carried by 24 points in 2024, and he has raised roughly $4.2 million in the 2026 cycle versus about $17,000 for Democratic nominee Steven Shook. With no public polling and a non-competitive challenger field, the structural fundamentals point to a lopsided Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:38:20.918948Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/texas-26/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX26149/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/brandon-gill","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Representative+Brandon+Gill+has+filed+a+new+financial+disclosure+-+here%E2%80%99s+what+we+see","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX26144/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/steven-shook"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-27-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 27th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 27th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T23:45:41.349713+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Cloud","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Cloud.jpg"},{"name":"Tanya Lloyd","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/TanyaLloyd26.jpeg"},{"name":"Wayne Raasch","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://assets.civicengine.com/uploads/candidate/headshot/624152/624152.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Cloud","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-27 is a strongly Republican Gulf Coast district where incumbent Michael Cloud, in office since 2018, has a dominant financial edge (about $1.06M raised and $271K cash on hand vs. Tanya Lloyd's $139.8K and $11.3K) and faces an under-resourced challenger plus a write-in with no visible infrastructure. With no public polling or market signals available, district partisan lean, incumbency, and the fundraising gap all point to a comfortable Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T23:45:29.824625Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_27th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8TX27049/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX27089/","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/michael-cloud","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/michael-cloud/us_congress/industries?mpid=1070405","https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2026&id=TX27","https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2024/texas-campaign-finance-2024/","https://texasaflcio.org/news/lone-star-labor-charting-new-path-texas-politics","https://www.transparencyusa.org/tx/candidate/wayne-raasch/?cycle=2015-to-now","https://ballotpedia.org/Wayne_Raasch"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-28-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 28th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 28th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T14:04:37.658458+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Henry Cuellar","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Henry_Cuellar.jpg"},{"name":"Tano Tijerina","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ttijerina.jpg"},{"name":"Marlon Duran","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marlon_Duran_20260428_080601.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Henry Cuellar","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.81,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.81,"Green":0.01,"Republican":0.18},"margin_estimate":8,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Cuellar's two-decade incumbency, roughly $2.2M raised, and an August likely-voter poll showing him ahead 45-34 give him a clear edge in a redrawn district that is nonetheless genuinely competitive. A June head-to-head survey that put Tijerina ahead by 8 and the district's Trump-2024 result keep this short of a safe Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Cuellar is favored for a 12th term, though the redrawn border district remains competitive.","key_reasons":["An August 18-22 survey of 600 likely voters shows Cuellar leading Tijerina 45% to 34%, with Green candidate Duran at 6%.","Cuellar's incumbency since 2005, deep Laredo/Webb County profile, and roughly $2.2M raised outpace Tijerina's roughly $1.4M.","The redrawn district backed Trump in 2024 and a June poll showed Tijerina ahead by 8, so the seat stays competitive despite the Democratic edge."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Cuellar's incumbency and August polling lead hold against Tijerina's local profile and the district's Trump-2024 lean, with only two public polls and a June survey showing Tijerina ahead.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T14:04:29.898520Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.jordanresearchcenter.org/publications/tsusouthtexascds2026","https://www.fox26houston.com/news/south-texas-congressional-poll-gives-democrats-edge-three-key-districts","https://www.ellisinsight.com/tag/texas/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX28-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX28-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX23082/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/henry-cuellar","https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3926039-these-house-members-get-the-most-money-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX28124/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/22/texas-congress-delegation-net-worth-millionaires-2026-midterms/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tano-tijerina","https://ballotpedia.org/Marlon_Duran"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX28-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSETX28-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-28?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.885,"yes_bid":0.88,"yes_ask":0.89,"last_price":0.89,"volume":154316.43,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:17.823890Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX28-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX28-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSETX28-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-28?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.11,"yes_bid":0.1,"yes_ask":0.12,"last_price":0.12,"volume":43116.2,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:19.544337Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX28-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.83,"Republican":0.16,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.81,"Republican":0.18,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.78,"Republican":0.2,"Green":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"tx-house-29-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 29th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 29th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:01:40.953666+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Sylvia Garcia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/250/450/SYLVIA_GARCIA.jpg"},{"name":"Martha Fierro","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Martha_Elena_Fierro.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Sylvia Garcia","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"TX-29 is a heavily Democratic, Hispanic-majority Houston district with a strong Democratic partisan lean, and incumbent Sylvia Garcia faces a Republican challenger who advanced unopposed in a district that consistently delivers landslide Democratic margins. No polling or prediction market signals suggest any competitiveness.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:52:11.281092Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_29th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00660555/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-30-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 30th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 30th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T22:41:57.775793+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Frederick Haynes","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Frederick_Haynes_20260219_025942.jpeg"},{"name":"Everett Jackson","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Everett_Jackson_20251030_121736.jpg"},{"name":"Oxford Nordberg","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Oxford_Nordberg_26_2026-05-18_173002.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Frederick Haynes","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0.02},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-30 is a heavily Democratic Dallas-based district that has been held by Democrats for decades, and Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes is the overwhelming favorite over Republican Everett Jackson and independent Oxford Nordberg. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's strong partisan fundamentals and unanimous safe ratings rather than survey evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T22:39:04.110154Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_30th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485366","https://www.keranews.org/elections-2026/2026-03-04/congress-frederick-haynes-jasmine-crockett-texas-dallas","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://jewishcurrents.org/a-test-run-for-the-anti-aipac-super-pac","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/pro-palestine-super-pac-plans-to-spend-2-million-supporting-hamawy/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX30237/","https://www.keranews.org/elections-2026/2026-02-18/tarrant-now-has-5-congressional-districts-heres-whos-running-in-the-march-primary"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-31-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 31st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 31st Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T10:11:15.142073+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John Carter","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Carter.jpg"},{"name":"Justin Early","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Justin_Early_20250701_092705.png"},{"name":"Greg Stoker","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg_Stoker_20260123_013747.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John Carter","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Green":0.01},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This R+11 Central Texas district has favored Republicans since its creation, and incumbent John Carter has held the seat since 2003, winning his 2026 primary decisively with 59.7%. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's structural lean, Carter's incumbency, and his roughly $1.42M fundraising total versus about $124K for Democratic challenger Justin Early and $79K for Green candidate Greg Stoker.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T09:47:06.220985Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_31st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485371","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX31044/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX31094/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX31169/","https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-defense-pacs-and-a-10-way-primary-define-the-fight-for-john-carter-texass-congressional-seat"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-32-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 32nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 32nd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T03:03:07.393074+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Dan Barrios","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Dan_Barrios_26.jpg"},{"name":"Jace Yarbrough","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JaceYarbrough26.jpeg"},{"name":"Charles Harper","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jace Yarbrough","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.89,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.89},"margin_estimate":15,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The 2025 redistricting turned TX-32 from a Dallas-centered Democratic stronghold into a seat that would have favored Donald Trump by roughly 18 points, and this is an open seat with no incumbent defending it. Republican Jace Yarbrough pairs that structural advantage with a wide fundraising lead and Trump's endorsement, while Dan Barrios runs a much smaller grassroots campaign and independent Charles Harper reports no financial activity.","takeaway":"Republicans are clearly favored to win this open, redrawn East Texas seat, with Jace Yarbrough holding a large resource and structural edge.","key_reasons":["Redistricting reshaped TX-32 into territory that would have favored Trump by about 18 points, a sharp reversal from its previous Democratic lean.","Yarbrough holds a large resource advantage — roughly $866K raised through June 30, 2026, including $207K in candidate loans and $184K from committees — against Barrios' roughly $97K, plus Trump's endorsement.","No public polling exists, and independent Charles Harper reports no fundraising activity, leaving the contest centered on the two major-party nominees."],"uncertainty":"With no public head-to-head polling, the forecast rests on the district's new partisan lean and the candidates' fundraising, so the true margin could differ from the estimate.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T03:03:03.872174Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_32nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX32-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX32-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX32217/","https://retrogradenews.com/2026/08/22/what-is-peter-thiel-doing-in-this-local-election/","https://richardsoncoalition.org/richardson-coalition-news/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX32225/","https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/20/jace-yarbrough-texas","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX32100/","https://ballotpedia.org/Charles_Harper"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX32-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX32-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-32?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.10500000000000001,"yes_bid":0.1,"yes_ask":0.11,"last_price":0.1,"volume":18525.9,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-10-08T20:56:01.793851Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX32-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX32-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX32-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-32?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.885,"yes_bid":0.88,"yes_ask":0.89,"last_price":0.89,"volume":10856.37,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:35.908133Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX32-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.07,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1,"Republican":0.89,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.12,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":16,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.05}},{"id":"tx-house-33-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 33rd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 33rd Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T16:53:50.958858+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Colin Allred","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://colinallred.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/shateallred.png"},{"name":"Patrick Gillespie","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/PatrickGillespie.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Colin Allred","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"This Dallas-centered open seat is heavily Democratic (roughly D+18) after mid-decade redistricting, and Democrat Colin Allred is a high-profile former congressman and 2024 Senate nominee with $7.4M raised. Republican Patrick Gillespie has no reported fundraising and lost this district by nearly 40 points in 2024, leaving Democrats with an overwhelming structural advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:53:32.224256Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_33rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8TX32098/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/colin-allred/summary?cid=N00040989","https://www.keranews.org/elections-2026/2026-05-12/texas-33rd-congressional-district-democratic-runoff-who-is-running-and-what-to-know","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/06/texas-33rd-congressional-district-democratic-runoff-colin-allred-julie-johnson/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX33248/","https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/colin-allred-u-s-rep-julie-johnson-go-to-the-mat-in-north-texas-democratic/article_f61f5240-9d35-4870-bae1-a4d9973f5fd4.html"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-34-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 34th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 34th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:52.704431+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Vicente Gonzalez Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Vicente_Gonzalez_115th_congress_photo.jpg"},{"name":"Eric Flores","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Eric_Flores_2025.png"},{"name":"Eddie Espinoza","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EdwardoEspinoza2.jpg"},{"name":"Chris Royal","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/ChrisRoyal2024.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Vicente Gonzalez Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7069,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7069,"Green":0.0001,"Libertarian":0.0001,"Republican":0.2929},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Jr. leads the only verified general-election survey of the current field (45-42 over Eric Flores, TSU, Aug 18) and holds a large cash-on-hand advantage in a district that has leaned Democratic. Two earlier 2026 head-to-heads narrowly favored Flores, leaving Gonzalez a modest but not secure favorite.","takeaway":"Gonzalez is a modest favorite to hold this Democratic-leaning Rio Grande Valley seat, though the race stays competitive.","key_reasons":["Gonzalez leads the latest verified likely-voter poll 45-42, with Espinoza at 3% and Royal at 2% and 8% undecided.","Gonzalez holds a substantial cash-on-hand edge (about $2.5M vs. about $686K) and the advantages of incumbency in a seat that has leaned Democratic.","Two earlier 2026 polls narrowly favored Flores, so the race remains genuinely competitive."],"uncertainty":"Polling is sparse — one verified August survey — and two earlier 2026 polls narrowly favored Flores, so the outcome turns on whether Gonzalez's cash advantage and incumbency outweigh Flores's consolidated Republican support.","based_on_poll_count":3,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:45.825952Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2026/08/27/tsu-poll-south-texas-midterm-elections","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/texas-34/","https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRCC-TX-34-Survey-Memo-1.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX34-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX34-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX15162/","https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/latino-conservative-group-optimistic-about-flipping-rio-grande-congressional-seat/article_996dc9fb-90ae-48e3-adc1-826e6b83284e.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00038842&cycle=2026","https://www.espinoza4tx.com/","https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Press+Release%3A+Vicente+Gonzalez+Secures+%244.2+Million+for+Cameron+County+Sheriff%E2%80%99s+Office","https://texpolls.com/races/us-house-tx34-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX34080/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/22/texas-congress-delegation-net-worth-millionaires-2026-midterms/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/26/south-texas-34th-congressional-district-eric-mayra-flores-vicente-gonzalez/","https://dallasexpress.com/state/texas-2026-fundraising-showdown-gop-challengers-outraise-democrats-in-key-border-districts/","https://ballotpedia.org/Eddie_Espinoza","https://lp.org/candidate/christopher-barry-royal/","https://www.lptexas.org/candidates"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX34-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSETX34-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.845,"yes_bid":0.84,"yes_ask":0.85,"last_price":0.85,"volume":35145.86,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:42.728310Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX34-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSETX34-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSETX34-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-34?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.155,"yes_bid":0.15,"yes_ask":0.16,"last_price":0.18,"volume":31474.68,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:43.724064Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSETX34-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.8,"Republican":0.2},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7,"Republican":0.29,"Green":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.32},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"tx-house-35-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 35th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 35th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T08:05:00.720615+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Johnny Garcia","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/4cc1f6_279c5dc79695415bbb82bbc12383bc4e~mv2.png"},{"name":"Carlos De La Cruz","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Carlos_De_La_Cruz.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.52,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.48,"Republican":0.52},"margin_estimate":2,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"medium","rationale":"The only public head-to-head poll, a Normington Petts survey released by House Majority PAC, put Garcia at 44% and De La Cruz at 45% — a statistical tie — while the redrawn Hispanic-majority district was drawn as a potential Republican pickup and the two campaigns have raised comparable sums. Those crosscurrents leave no clear favorite in an open seat.","takeaway":"This open, newly redrawn San Antonio-area seat is a toss-up, with neither Garcia nor De La Cruz holding a clear advantage.","key_reasons":["The single public poll of the general election matchup is a 44-45 statistical tie (Normington Petts, ended Aug. 31, 2026, released by House Majority PAC), with no newer survey available to confirm or contradict it.","The district was redrawn as a Hispanic-majority seat designed as a potential Republican pickup, giving the GOP a structural floor even as the map has not produced a clear Republican lead.","Fundraising is close to parity — De La Cruz about $1,049,000 and Garcia about $932,000 through June 30, 2026 — with heavy outside and super PAC spending on both sides, so neither campaign holds a decisive financial edge."],"uncertainty":"The lone public poll is a group-sponsored survey without a published sample size, the prediction-market snapshot is roughly a month old, and the newly drawn Hispanic-majority map has no electoral track record, so the race could tip either way.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T08:04:55.911479Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-johnny-garcia-statistically-tied-with-carlos-de-la-cruz-in-tx-35","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX35-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX35-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX35095/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/29/texas-35th-congressional-district-maureen-galindo-johnny-garcia-outside-spending-gop-pac/","https://www.sacurrent.com/news/san-antonio-news/san-antonio-democrat-outraises-trump-backed-opponent-in-red-leaning-district/","https://www.texastribune.org/text/229200/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX35087/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/01/texas-congress-ai-super-pacs-artificial-intelligence-regulation-2026-midterms/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/14/texas-congress-runoffs-us-house-outside-money-pacs/","https://sanantonioreport.org/campaign-fundraising-san-antonio-2026-congressional-races-q1/","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/08/texas-35th-congressional-district-democratic-republican-runoffs/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX35-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX35-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for TX-35?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.6,"yes_bid":0.59,"yes_ask":0.61,"last_price":0.6,"volume":83744.92,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:46.004026Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX35-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSETX35-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSETX35-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for TX-35?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.385,"yes_bid":0.37,"yes_ask":0.4,"last_price":0.39,"volume":86465.97,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:42:47.165742Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSETX35-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.56,"Republican":0.44},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.46,"Republican":0.54},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.48,"Republican":0.52},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"tx-house-36-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 36th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 36th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:09:07.386443+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Brian Babin","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/Brian_Babin_official_congressional_photo_2.jpg"},{"name":"Rhonda Hart","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RhondaHart2024.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Brian Babin","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.97},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"TX-36 is a strongly Republican district (R+12 partisan lean) with a long-serving incumbent, Brian Babin, who cleared his primary with 81.1% and chairs a major House committee. The Democratic challenger is a credible but longshot candidate with no public polling or finance evidence of competitiveness, leaving a large structural Republican advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:54:34.497446Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_36th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4TX14111/","https://ballotpedia.org/Rhonda_Hart","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/brian-babin/summary?cid=N00035375","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/TX/36/2026/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/texas-district-36-race-winner-by-party/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-37-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 37th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas's 37th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:03:25.294745+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Greg Casar","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Greg_Casar.jpg"},{"name":"Lauren B. 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With no public polling available, the forecast rests on the district's deep-blue partisan lean and Casar's incumbency and fundraising advantages over a lightly funded Republican challenger.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T16:51:44.694361Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_37th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2TX35144/","https://legis1.com/news/follow-the-money-rep-greg-casars-strong-lead-in-the-primary-for-texass-redrawn-37th-district","https://legis1.com/news/tx-37-congressional-race-democrats-lead-texas","https://insideelections.com/person/greg-casar/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6TX35038/","https://insideelections.com/person/lauren-b-pena/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"tx-house-38-2026","title":"2026 Texas's 38th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Texas' 38th Congressional District","state":"Texas","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T23:51:07.886604+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jon Bonck","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jon_Bonck.png"},{"name":"Melissa McDonough","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/melissamcdonough.jpg"},{"name":"Alex McMenemy","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alex_McMenemy_20251225_064203.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Jon Bonck","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.04,"Green":0.01},"margin_estimate":16,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Texas' 38th is a solidly Republican open seat in the western Houston area, and Jon Bonck—backed by Trump, Cruz, and national Republican leaders—is the decided favorite over underfunded Democrat Melissa McDonough and Green nominee Alex McMenemy. 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That edge is tempered by Texas's long Republican statewide lean and by Talarico's large fundraising advantage over Ken Paxton, leaving the race close but tilted toward a Democratic pickup.","takeaway":"Talarico holds a narrow edge in Texas, buoyed by recent polling leads and a big fundraising advantage, though the state's Republican lean keeps it close.","key_reasons":["Talarico leads the bulk of recent polling, including Siena College (NYT/Siena) 51-45, YouGov 50-44, Marist 50-44 and Fox News 51-49, with the newest UMass Lowell / YouGov survey tied at 45-45.","Talarico has raised more than $70 million cumulatively versus roughly $16.8 million for Paxton, a substantial resource advantage in one of the country's most expensive Senate races.","Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than 30 years, and this is an open Republican-held seat, so the state's structural lean keeps the contest competitive despite the polling edge."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Talarico's polling lead and fundraising edge hold against Texas's Republican statewide lean and a history of polls understating GOP performance, with the tied UMass Lowell / YouGov result and a market reading last updated Sept. 15 adding 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Utah's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Utah's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Utah","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T15:23:34.482223+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Blake Moore","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BlakeMoore.jpg"},{"name":"Peter Crosby","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Peter_Crosby_20250812_020130.jpg"},{"name":"Daniel Cottam","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/DanielCottam2024.jpg"},{"name":"Carlton Bowen","party":"Independent American","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Carlton_Bowen_20241023_121022.jpg"},{"name":"Robert 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With no public polling and both major-party primaries unopposed, the district's structural lean and Scott's incumbency make him an overwhelming favorite.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T11:12:01.875007Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VA","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/virginia-3/","https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/industries?cid=N00002147&cycle=2026","https://www.vpap.org/offices/us-representative-3/elections/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"va-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 4th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T01:29:12.824042+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Jennifer McClellan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Jennifer-McClellan.PNG"},{"name":"Robert P. 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With no public polling, a caucus-selected Republican nominee, and an independent on the ballot, the race presents little apparent challenge to the incumbent.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T01:18:57.199380Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.vpap.org/elections/us-house/candidates/general/","https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485451","https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=H2026VA04","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4VA04066/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jennifer-mcclellan/summary"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"va-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 5th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T10:06:51.464002+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"John McGuire","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/John_McGuire_119th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Tom Perriello","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/Perriello_Official_Portrait_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Cooke Harvey","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Cooke_Harvey_20260424_072910.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"John McGuire","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.6,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.39,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.6},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican John McGuire leads the most recent independent likely-voter survey (Washington Post/GMU Schar School, 51-45) and benefits from a Republican-leaning district, while Democrat Tom Perriello's large cash advantage ($1.51M on hand versus $524K) and Republican crossover endorsements keep the contest genuinely competitive. The older Expedition Strategies survey, released by the Perriello campaign, showed a closer 47-44 McGuire lead, consistent with a race that is close but still tilts to the incumbent.","takeaway":"McGuire holds a narrow edge in a competitive race, buoyed by the district's Republican lean and a recent 51-45 poll lead.","key_reasons":["The most recent independent likely-voter poll (Washington Post/GMU Schar School, ended Sept 28, 600 respondents) shows McGuire ahead 51-45, a lead roughly in line with the district's Republican lean.","Perriello's fundraising edge and cash-on-hand advantage, plus endorsements from former Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman and other Republicans, keep the race competitive and constrain McGuire's expected margin.","Incumbency and the district's Republican tilt favor McGuire, while independent Cooke Harvey's low-single-digit support is unlikely to be decisive."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether McGuire's polling lead and the district's Republican lean outweigh Perriello's cash advantage and crossover endorsements, with only two public surveys available and one of them released by the Perriello campaign.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T10:06:42.790284Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/article_55907f9e-9480-4c7a-8d3a-c8b3b50ef542.html","https://www.tomperriello.com/news/new-poll-perriello-moves-virginias-5th-district-into-a-toss-up-race","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0VA07133/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/159846/top_donors/","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/07/17/perriello-has-nearly-three-times-as-much-cash-as-mcguire-macy-outraises-cline/","https://www.vpap.org/offices/us-representative-5/elections/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00929968/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/443694-tom-perriello/","https://www.29news.com/2026/02/02/perriello-leads-5th-district-fundraising-race-against-incumbent-mcguire/","https://www.wvtf.org/news/2026-08-04/candidates-with-the-most-money-tend-to-have-the-most-success-in-virginia-including-in-primaries","https://bluevirginia.us/2026/02/4q25-fundraising-reports-massive-lead-for-sen-mark-warner-republican-reps-rob-wittman-jen-kiggans-john-mcguire-ben-cline-all-outraised-by-their-leading-dem-challengers/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/tom-perriello/us_congress/summary?mpid=1109358","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/443694/top_donors/","https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA05241/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.6,"Democratic":0.39,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.64,"Democratic":0.35,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.57,"Democratic":0.41,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.07}},{"id":"va-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 6th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:46.300305+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Ben Cline","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BEN_CLINE.jpg"},{"name":"Beth Macy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Beth_Macy_20260112_104418.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Ben Cline","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.94,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.06,"Republican":0.94},"margin_estimate":22,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Virginia's 6th is a deeply Republican district — Trump carried it by about 24 points in 2024 and Cline won re-election by about 28 — and the one available general-election poll (co/efficient, ended Sept. 30) shows Cline ahead 59-29. Macy's fundraising edge and endorsements give her a real platform, but they do not offset that partisan baseline or Cline's incumbency.","takeaway":"Cline is strongly favored to hold this deeply Republican seat, though Macy's fundraising keeps it from being entirely safe.","key_reasons":["The district's strong Republican lean: Trump won it by roughly 24 points in 2024 and Cline won re-election by roughly 28, a baseline that has held even in Democratic-wave years.","Incumbent Ben Cline's established name recognition and conservative record in a seat he has held since 2018.","The only available general-election poll (co/efficient, ended Sept. 30, n=500) shows Cline leading Macy 59-29, a 30-point margin consistent with the district's partisan profile."],"uncertainty":"Only one general-election poll is available and Macy's fundraising advantage (about $1.69M raised vs. Cline's $1.44M through July 15, 2026) could narrow the final margin, so the size of a Cline win is less certain than its direction.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:41.566937Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://coefficient.org/our-work/virginia-6th-congressional-district-poll-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8VA06104/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/53003/finance_summary/","https://augustafreepress.com/news/ben-cline-is-raising-more-money-in-hollywood-but-beth-macy-is-holding-her-own-in-virginia/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/53003/top_donors/","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/07/17/perriello-has-nearly-three-times-as-much-cash-as-mcguire-macy-outraises-cline/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00927129/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/beth-macy/donors","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/597998/finance_summary/","https://cardinalnews.org/2025/11/20/macy-raises-350000-for-congressional-bid-in-24-hours/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.94,"Democratic":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.03},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":28,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.87,"Democratic":0.13},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":22,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.1}},{"id":"va-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 7th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:51.279254+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Douglas Ollivant","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Douglas_Ollivant_20260201_033752.jpg"},{"name":"Eugene Vindman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/EugeneVindman23.jpg"},{"name":"Alaha Ahrar","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alaha-Ahrar-Professional-Congress_20260803_150343_32215_2.jpeg"},{"name":"Taner Lopez","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://b3870750.assetcdn.net/2.0/3870750/wp-content/uploads/Pic-939x1024.jpg?lossy=2&strip=1&webp=1"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Eugene Vindman","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005,"Republican":0.09},"margin_estimate":7,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Incumbent Eugene Vindman combines a roughly 50-to-1 fundraising advantage ($12.4 million to Douglas Ollivant's $251,134) with a district that has leaned Democratic, and no public polling has surfaced to suggest the race has tightened. The seat's recent single-digit margins and the absence of candidate-level surveys keep this short of a safe Democratic hold.","takeaway":"Vindman is favored to hold this Democratic-leaning seat on incumbency and a lopsided fundraising edge.","key_reasons":["Vindman's incumbency and national profile pair with a dominant fundraising position — about $12.4 million raised versus $251,134 for Ollivant — giving him a large resource edge in a race with no public polling.","The 7th District has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, and the midterm environment is not obviously hostile to the party holding the seat."],"uncertainty":"No public candidate-level polling exists and the district has been decided by single digits in recent cycles, so the true margin is uncertain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:47.091464Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEVA7-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEVA7-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA07205/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00921650/","https://www.vpap.org/offices/us-representative-7/elections/","https://ballotpedia.org/Alaha_Ahrar","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA07205/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4VA07234/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/487406/finance_summary/","https://www.opensecrets.org/elections/virginia/federal/virginia-district-07/candidates?cycle=2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4VA07234/?cycle=2026&election_full=true","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA07353/","https://ballotpedia.org/Taner_Lopez"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEVA7-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEVA7-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for VA-07?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.941,"yes_bid":0.938,"yes_ask":0.944,"last_price":0.939,"volume":13911.68,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:43:46.189859Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEVA7-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEVA7-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEVA7-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for VA-7?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.053,"yes_bid":0.043,"yes_ask":0.063,"last_price":0.064,"volume":13606.97,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:04:51.930240Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEVA7-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9,"Republican":0.09,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.91,"Republican":0.08,"Independent":0.005,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.82,"Republican":0.16,"Independent":0.015,"Libertarian":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.09}},{"id":"va-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 8th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T02:08:23.519721+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Donald S. Beyer, Jr.","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Don_Beyer__official_114th_Congress_photo_portrait-7_fixed.jpeg"},{"name":"Tony Sabio","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tony_Sabio_2026.JPG"},{"name":"Shelly M. Arnoldi","party":"Libertarian","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Shelly_Arnoldi_20250318_072545.jpg"},{"name":"Tim S. Sharman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://timsharmanforcongress.com/profile-picture.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Donald S. Beyer, Jr.","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Other":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Virginia's 8th District is a heavily Democratic Northern Virginia seat, and incumbent Don Beyer is seeking a seventh term after winning the August 2026 primary with roughly 68%. With no public polling and a low-funded Republican challenge, a Democratic hold is overwhelmingly likely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T02:08:04.337388Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4VA08224/","https://patch.com/virginia/arlington-va/top-donors-beyer-democratic-challengers-virginia-s-8th-district-race","https://whofundsmyrep.com/rep/donald-s-beyer","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-va-8/compare/don-beyer-vs-tony-sabio","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00905943/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/tony-sabio/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://ballotpedia.org/Shelly_Arnoldi","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA08336/","https://www.arlnow.com/2026/08/24/independent-candidate-challenges-rep-beyer-targeting-frustrated-voters/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"va-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 9th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T13:22:05.849327+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Morgan Griffith","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Morgan_Griffith.jpg"},{"name":"Joy Powers","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Joy_Powers_20260323_070026.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Morgan Griffith","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Morgan Griffith, first elected in 2010 and seeking a ninth term, runs in a heavily Republican rural Southwest Virginia district where he has won recent elections by wide margins. With no public polling, his long incumbency, the district's strong conservative lean, and a roughly 20-to-1 fundraising advantage over Joy Powers make a Democratic upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T12:49:22.123705Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0VA09055/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA09136/","https://www.vpap.org/offices/us-representative-9/elections/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/morgan-griffith/summary","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/07/17/perriello-has-nearly-three-times-as-much-cash-as-mcguire-macy-outraises-cline/","https://ballotpedia.org/Morgan_Griffith","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/morgan-griffith","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/VA/9","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/joy-powers/donors","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/525442-joy-powers/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"va-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 10th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-01T13:58:49.681215+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Suhas Subramanyam","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://subramanyam.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/subramanyam.house.gov/files/evo-media-image/congressman-s-headshot-final.jpg"},{"name":"Dave Beckwith","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/dbeckwith.png"},{"name":"Steven Goforth","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/goforth-flag-bg-v2_20260706_002749_30918_1.jpg"},{"name":"Omar Morsy","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Suhas Subramanyam","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Subramanyam is a heavy favorite in a D+6 district Democrats have held since 2018, backed by a roughly $1.17M fundraising advantage over Beckwith's ~$107K and no public polling suggesting competitiveness. Prediction markets price Democratic victory near 96%, though thin liquidity warrants caution on the exact margin.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-01T13:04:23.597576Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEVA10-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEVA10-26-R","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VA","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4VA10279/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2VA10273/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/suhas-subramanyam/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/suhas-subramanyam/summary","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/304898/top_donors/","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/ai-2026-elections-midterms-campaign-donations.html","https://patch.com/virginia/manassas/beckwith-leads-va-10-gop-primary-fundraising-perry-tops-small-dollar-donations","https://legis1.com/news/virginia-10th-congressional-district-2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/VA/10","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA10241/","https://www.civoren.com/candidate/steven-anthony-goforth-67u2n","https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/419/202603019837872419/202603019837872419.pdf","https://ballotpedia.org/Omar_Morsy","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA10266/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEVA10-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEVA10-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for VA-10?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9624999999999999,"yes_bid":0.945,"yes_ask":0.98,"last_price":0.966,"volume":3961.63,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:53:19.855519Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEVA10-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEVA10-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEVA10-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for VA-10?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0285,"yes_bid":0.002,"yes_ask":0.055,"last_price":0.037,"volume":321,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-08-17T19:53:19.864435Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEVA10-26-R","confidence":"medium"}]}},{"id":"va-house-11-2026","title":"2026 Virginia's 11th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Virginia's 11th Congressional District","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T06:10:23.672687+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"James Walkinshaw","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/James_Walkinshaw_20250521_030453.jpg"},{"name":"Arthur Purves","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/arthurPurves.jpg"},{"name":"Dianne Blais","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://vpap-production.s3.amazonaws.com/media/photos/entities/blaisd.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"James Walkinshaw","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Green":0.005,"Republican":0.015},"margin_estimate":32,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Virginia's 11th is a heavily Democratic Fairfax County district where incumbent James Walkinshaw holds a lopsided resource advantage — roughly $979,000 cash on hand against minimal Republican fundraising and no located Green Party committee — and no public general-election polling has surfaced to suggest a competitive race. With the seat's strong Democratic lean, incumbency, and a minor-party candidate in the field, Walkinshaw is a heavy favorite.","takeaway":"Walkinshaw is a heavy favorite to hold this heavily Democratic Fairfax County seat.","key_reasons":["The district covers most of Fairfax County and is strongly Democratic, giving any Republican nominee a steep baseline climb.","Incumbent Walkinshaw reported about $1.1 million raised and roughly $979,000 cash on hand, while Purves reported minimal fundraising and Blais shows no FEC receipts.","No public general-election polling exists, but incumbency, partisan lean, and a Green candidate in the field leave the challengers with no evident path to a majority."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, so the wide margin estimate rests on the district's partisan lean, incumbency, and fundraising rather than direct vote-share evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T06:10:18.813402Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.vpap.org/offices/us-representative-11/elections/","https://virginiamercury.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-general-election-11th-congressional-district/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VA11066/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-va-11/compare/arthur-purves-vs-james-walkinshaw","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/95879-james-walkinshaw/","https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/39482-arthur-purves/","https://11cdgop.org/news/committee-fulfills-5000-matching-commitment-arthur-purves/","https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-house/virginia-district-11-race-winner-by-party/","https://www.vpap.org/candidates/198845-dianne-blais/","https://ballotpedia.org/Dianne_Blais"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.015,"Green":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":32,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.985,"Republican":0.014,"Green":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":40,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.05,"Green":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":25,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.045}},{"id":"va-senate-2026","title":"2026 Virginia U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Virginia","state":"Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T20:45:59.577633+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Warner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mark_Warner.jpg"},{"name":"Bert Mizusawa","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Bert_mizusawa.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Warner","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"margin_estimate":17,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position: two general-election polls show him up 17-26 points over Republican Bert Mizusawa, and he enjoys a large fundraising and incumbency edge in a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 2002. Prediction markets also price a Democratic win above 95%, supporting a safe Democratic rating.","takeaway":"Democrats are heavily favored to hold Virginia's Senate seat, with Mark Warner positioned for a fourth term.","key_reasons":["Two general-election polls show Warner leading Mizusawa by 17-26 points among likely voters.","Warner's three-term incumbency and roughly $22M fundraising advantage dwarf Mizusawa's modest war chest.","Virginia has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and prediction markets strongly favor the Democratic nominee."],"uncertainty":"Polling comes from a single pollster, Mizusawa is a credible national-security candidate, and the market's near-certain pricing may overstate certainty, so the margin could tighten by November.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T20:45:56.258554Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/virginia/","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEVA-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEVA-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mark-warner/us_congress/industries?cycle=2026&mpid=1140953","https://virginiamercury.com/2026/07/15/gop-senate-hopefuls-face-long-odds-in-race-to-challenge-mark-warner/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8VA00321/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEVA-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEVA-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Virginia?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9804999999999999,"yes_bid":0.972,"yes_ask":0.989,"last_price":0.98,"volume":18736.99,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:27.763942Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEVA-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEVA-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEVA-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Virginia?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.017,"yes_bid":0.005,"yes_ask":0.029,"last_price":0.024,"volume":12440.22,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:40.764556Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEVA-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.94,"Republican":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":18,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-5.6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.975,"Republican":0.025},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.035}},{"id":"vt-governor-2026","title":"2026 Vermont Governor Election","office":"Governor of Vermont","jurisdiction":"Vermont","state":"Vermont","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T14:59:23.826449+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Phil Scott","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Phil_Scott.jpg"},{"name":"Amanda Janoo","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Amanda_Janoo_20260409_013039.jpg"},{"name":"Dean Roy","party":"Freedom and Unity Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://people.com/thmb/EZPK5bD8ul-p6MUHtiGIxOuNVis=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():focal(749x0:751x2)/dean-roy-1-121025-b50d44e5f963458ca277af2647c4cde2.jpg"},{"name":"June Goodband","party":"Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JuneGoodband.jpg"},{"name":"Brian Judd","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/Brian_Judd_American_Legion_Post_10_320_North_Main_Street_downtown_Barre_VT_December_2021_03.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Phil Scott","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.8586,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.1313,"Freedom and Unity":0.0051,"Green Mountain Peace and Justice":0.003,"Independent":0.002,"Republican":0.8586},"margin_estimate":13,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Phil Scott holds a clear lead over Democrat Amanda Janoo, ahead 42–27 in a late-June UNH poll and 44–33 in a mid-July UNH poll, and he has repeatedly won statewide in a state that otherwise leans Democratic. Janoo's narrow, divided primary win and Scott's incumbency and cross-party appeal leave Republicans clearly favored, though Scott's approval has slipped to a four-year low.","takeaway":"Phil Scott is clearly favored for a sixth term, leading Janoo by double digits in the most recent polling.","key_reasons":["UNH likely-voter polling shows Scott ahead by 15 points in late June (42–27) and 11 points in mid-July (44–33), both before the August 11 primary.","Scott is a long-serving, broadly popular moderate Republican who has repeatedly won statewide in a strongly Democratic state, while Janoo is a first-time candidate who narrowly won a divided primary (49.1% to 46.5%).","Minor-party candidates (Goodband, Roy, Judd) poll in the low single digits and do not alter the two-way dynamic."],"uncertainty":"Both public polls predate the August 11 primary, so the race's post-primary shape is unmeasured, and Scott's approval at a four-year low of 51% is the main caveat on an otherwise comfortable 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Balint","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/30/Rep._Becca_Balint_-_118th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Gerald Malloy","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gerald_Malloy.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Becca Balint","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.98,"Republican":0.02},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Two UNH Survey Center polls this cycle show Balint leading Malloy by 31-38 points (57%-26% in June, 63%-25% in July), and she won re-election in 2024 with 62.3% of the vote in a state that has not sent a Republican to this seat since 1988. Her incumbency and roughly 16-to-1 fundraising advantage (~$956K vs. ~$58K) reinforce a race that is not competitive.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:20:59.607454Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/970","https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/982","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2VT01076/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/becca-balint/summary","https://vtdigger.org/2025/08/18/becca-balint-tells-supporters-she-doesnt-take-corporate-pac-money-records-show-its-not-that-simple/","https://vermontdailychronicle.com/balint-claims-no-corporate-pac-but-fed-records-raise-questions/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6VT01085/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VT","https://www.wcax.com/2026/08/03/richards-leads-all-candidates-fundraising-ahead-primary/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-01-house-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 1st Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:27:14.770735+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Suzan DelBene","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1e/Rep._Suzan_DelBene_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Mary Silva","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BALLOTPEDIAPHOTO_20260713_085435_42823_1_2026-07-14_141719.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Suzan DelBene","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Washington's 1st District is strongly Democratic (D+15 PVI) and held by seven-term incumbent and DCCC chair Suzan DelBene, who took 54.5% in the August 4 top-two primary against Republican Mary Silva's 27.2%. With no public polling and a challenger who raised roughly $3.2K against DelBene's $3.55M, a Democratic hold is overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:19:29.809280Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0WA08046/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/suzan-delbene/summary","https://www.levernews.com/lawmakers-are-hiding-their-private-equity-millions/","https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/05/congress-private-equity-scott-warner-delbene-blumenthal-romney/","https://www.heraldnet.com/2026/07/15/seven-candidates-seek-district-1-congressional-seat/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WA01282/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00870782/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-wa-1/compare/mary-silva-vs-suzan-delbene"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:20:23.974516+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Rick Larsen","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_Larsen.jpg"},{"name":"Edwin Feller","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Edwin_Feller_2026-07-20_220604.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rick Larsen","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Rick Larsen led the August 4 top-two primary 44.9% to 32.9% over first-time Republican Edwin Feller and holds a commanding cash advantage in a district with a durable Democratic lean that has not elected a Republican in decades. With no public polling, the forecast rests on these structural fundamentals, which point to a decisive Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:19:59.947970Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/rick-larsen/summary?cid=N00009759","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0WA02080/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00345546/","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Rick%20Larsen-L000560/donors","https://advocacy.agc.org/agcpac/","https://www.heraldnet.com/2026/08/04/three-incumbents-lead-in-congressional-primary-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00951129/","https://myedmondsnews.com/2026/05/south-snohomish-county-candidates-file-for-aug-4-2026-primary-elections/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T11:06:39.300486+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marie Gluesenkamp Perez","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marie_Gluesenkamp_Perez.jpg"},{"name":"John Braun","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Braun_20230601_085401.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":null,"predicted_winner_party":"Toss-up","win_probability":0.51,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.49,"Republican":0.51},"margin_estimate":1.5,"rating":"tossup","confidence":"low","rationale":"The freshest survey, DHM Research's Sept. 17-27 likely-voter poll, puts John Braun ahead of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 46-44 (48-47 once leaners are folded in), a near-tie consistent with this R+2 district that backed Trump in 2024. Perez's incumbency, her history of overperforming here, and a roughly $6.3 million to $2.2 million fundraising advantage offset Braun's narrow polling and primary lead, leaving no clear favorite.","takeaway":"A genuine toss-up: Braun holds a narrow polling edge in an R+2 district, while Perez's incumbency and fundraising keep Democrats close.","key_reasons":["DHM Research's Sept. 17-27 poll of 543 likely voters shows Braun 46, Perez 44, and 48-47 on the leaner follow-up, a margin well inside any error band.","The district's R+2 lean and 2024 Trump vote, plus Braun's narrow first-place finish in the August top-two primary, give Republicans a slight structural edge in a close race.","Perez's incumbency and roughly $6.3M raised versus Braun's roughly $2.2M keep the contest competitive despite her trailing in recent polling."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the district's Republican lean and Braun's narrow polling edge hold against Perez's incumbency and fundraising advantage; a Kalshi market from Sept. 15 prices Democrats near 90% but predates the tightening DHM survey, and only one poll has been conducted since July.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T11:06:28.681782Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/01/gluesenkamp-perez-braun-southwest-washington-3rd-district/","https://www.chronline.com/stories/poll-commissioned-by-mgp-challenger-shows-uncertainty-around-the-2026-primary,391656","https://www.chronline.com/stories/new-poll-shows-why-third-congressional-district-race-is-drawing-national-attention,405451","https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRCC-WA-03-Survey-Memo-1.pdf","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWA3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWA3-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/marie-gluesenkamp-perez/summary?cid=N00050490&cycle=2024","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2WA03217/","https://chinookobserver.com/2026/06/24/campaign-finance-partisan-support-boosted-mgp-campaign-early-on/","https://www.columbian.com/news/2026/jul/28/perez-leads-her-3rd-congressional-district-challengers-in-fundraising-and-spending-bringing-in-6-3-million/","https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA03275/","http://www.chronline.com/stories/john-braun-for-congress-hits-1-million-in-fundraising,398454","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=2649318&default=candidate"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWA3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEWA3-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for WA-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.897,"yes_bid":0.89,"yes_ask":0.904,"last_price":0.89,"volume":63079.45,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:19.326783Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWA3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWA3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEWA3-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for WA-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.095,"yes_bid":0.091,"yes_ask":0.099,"last_price":0.1,"volume":111312.44,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:04:56.370390Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWA3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7,"Republican":0.3},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.46,"Republican":0.54},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":1.5,"confidence":"low"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.48,"Republican":0.52},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.24}},{"id":"wa-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 4th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:24:54.248228+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Amanda McKinney","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/69414dc907486468d86ae59d/f4325b4c-0e0f-4f07-9324-57d29062785f/Screenshot+2025-12-20+at+11.31.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?format=1500w&content-type=image%2Fpng"},{"name":"John Duresky","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/John_Duresky2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Amanda McKinney","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.05,"Republican":0.95},"margin_estimate":18,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Washington's 4th is a reliably Republican district that has not elected a Democrat since 1992, and McKinney enters the general with unified GOP support, Trump and Speaker Johnson endorsements, and a large fundraising and outside-spending advantage over Duresky. The only public poll is a stale pre-primary survey that does not reflect the two-candidate general matchup.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:24:30.801067Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-ca7","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA04216/","https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jul/31/mckinney-dominates-fundraising-spending-in-central/","https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2026/04/17/dollars-flowing-into-a-pair-of-hotly-contested-wa-congressional-races/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00932582/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA04190/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00916585/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 5th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T04:04:55.109058+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Michael Baumgartner","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Congressman_Michael_Baumgartner_%28cropped%29.png"},{"name":"Carmela Conroy","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/CarmelaConroy.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Baumgartner","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.82,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.18,"Republican":0.82},"margin_estimate":10,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Baumgartner advanced from the August 4 top-two primary with 47.4% to Conroy's 18.9%, holds a roughly $1.41M-to-$300K fundraising advantage, and led the May head-to-head poll 53-47 in a district with a durable Republican lean. Conroy's 21-point loss in 2024 and the thin polling record keep this short of a lock, but the structural advantages point to a Republican hold.","takeaway":"Baumgartner is favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat on incumbency, a wide fundraising edge, and a primary win.","key_reasons":["Baumgartner cleared the top-two primary with 47.4% to Conroy's 18.9% and beat her by 21 points in the 2024 general, indicating a large structural advantage in this Eastern Washington district.","He out-raised Conroy roughly $1.41M to $300K and entered with a substantial cash-on-hand edge, while the May head-to-head poll showed him ahead 53-47.","The district's Republican lean and Baumgartner's incumbency give him a clear edge, though the single-digit May margin leaves room for a closer-than-expected result."],"uncertainty":"Only two head-to-head polls exist, and the July New York Times/Siena survey showed Baumgartner ahead 39-9 while leaving most respondents uncommitted, so a shifting midterm environment could tighten a race whose May margin was single digits.","based_on_poll_count":2,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T04:04:48.635376Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings//wa-05-baumgartner-leads-democrats-trails-independent","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/washington-us-house-5-polls-2026.html","https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/WA/5","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WA05168/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/carmela-conroy/donors","https://ballotbase.io/guide/federal/carmela-conroy-wa-h05-2026/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.92,"Democratic":0.08},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.18},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":8,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.78,"Democratic":0.22},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"wa-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 6th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:36:17.617216+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Emily Randall","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/8_x_11_photo_of_emily_randall.jpg"},{"name":"Teresa Fox","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Teresa_Fox_2026-05-28_002711.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Emily Randall","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Emily Randall holds a strongly Democratic district spanning the Olympic and Kitsap peninsulas and faces a lightly funded Republican challenger with no public polling. Her roughly $1.2M raised versus Teresa Fox's $27.6K, combined with the district's durable Democratic lean and an active incumbent's advantages, points to a comfortable Democratic hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:25:51.004414Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485516","https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/emily-randall/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WA06117/","https://insideelections.com/person/emily-randall/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA06286/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WA"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 7th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:22:56.506899+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Pramila Jayapal","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/eb/Pramila_Jayapal%2C_official_portrait%2C_116th_Congress.jpg"},{"name":"Nirav Sheth","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Nirav_Sheth_2026_1.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Pramila Jayapal","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.99,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.99,"Republican":0.01},"margin_estimate":60,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Pramila Jayapal won roughly 84% of the August 4 top-two primary vote against Republican Nirav Sheth's ~10%, in a Seattle-based district with an overwhelmingly Democratic electorate. Her incumbency, dominant primary margin, and roughly $2.5M fundraising advantage over Sheth's ~$11.8K make a Democratic hold effectively certain.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:22:43.527376Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/washington/elections/20260804","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA07458/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WA08147/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-wa-7/compare/nirav-sheth-vs-pramila-jayapal","https://www.eenews.net/articles/jayapal-charts-path-for-the-left-eyes-leadership-role/","https://ballotpedia.org/Nirav_Sheth"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wa-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 8th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T05:03:41.718708+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Kim Schrier","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kim_Schrier.jpg"},{"name":"Spencer Meline","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/spencermeline.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Kim Schrier","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.9499,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.9499,"Republican":0.0501},"margin_estimate":12,"rating":"likely_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Schrier took about 53.8% in the August 4 top-two primary to Meline's roughly 15.9% in a district with a modest Democratic lean that she has held since 2018, and she has raised about $3.02 million against Meline's roughly $127,000. With no public general-election polling, that combination of incumbency, primary performance and a wide resource gap points to a comfortable Schrier win.","takeaway":"Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier is strongly favored to hold Washington's 8th District against first-time Republican challenger Spencer Meline.","key_reasons":["Schrier finished the August 4 top-two primary far ahead, about 53.8% to Meline's roughly 15.9%, in a district that leans Democratic and that she has represented since 2019.","Schrier's roughly $3.02 million raised dwarfs Meline's roughly $127,000, which was mostly candidate self-loans, limiting the challenger's ability to build name recognition.","Market pricing on the race puts Democratic odds near 96%, consistent with a comfortable incumbent advantage."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election polling exists for this race, and the market signal is a single mid-September reading with a wide bid/ask spread, so the size of Schrier's margin is far less certain than her advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T05:03:31.538060Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEWA8-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEWA8-26-R","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8WA08189/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA08167/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00938050/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEWA8-26-D","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEWA8-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for WA-08?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.9635,"yes_bid":0.93,"yes_ask":0.997,"last_price":0.957,"volume":4226.24,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:38.564753Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEWA8-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"KXHOUSEWA8-26-R","event_ticker":"KXHOUSEWA8-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for WA-08?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.0105,"yes_bid":0.001,"yes_ask":0.02,"last_price":0.013,"volume":1285.93,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:39.575535Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHOUSEWA8-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.96,"Republican":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.05},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":12,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.01}},{"id":"wa-house-09-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 9th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 9th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-07T16:05:57.494128+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Adam Smith","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Adam_Smith.jpg"},{"name":"Doug Basler","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Doug_Basler.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Adam Smith","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.03,"Independent":0,"Other":0},"margin_estimate":30,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"WA-9 is a heavily Democratic district where 29-year incumbent Adam Smith has beaten Doug Basler in five straight head-to-head matchups, and the certified August primary (Smith 47.1%, Basler 21.8%) reinforced the gap. With no public polling, the forecast rests on the district's strong partisan lean, incumbency, and Basler's ~$99k self-funded campaign.","takeaway":"Adam Smith is overwhelmingly favored to win a sixth straight general-election matchup in this safely Democratic district.","key_reasons":["29-year incumbency as dean of Washington's House delegation in a heavily Democratic district","Certified top-two primary results: Smith 47.1% to Basler 21.8%","Basler has lost five prior head-to-head matchups and raised only ~$99k, mostly self-funded"],"uncertainty":"No public polling exists for this race, and Smith's July 2026 Israel-aid vote could draw national attention, but the district's structural lean makes an upset highly unlikely.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T15:46:58.405300Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://mynorthwest.com/mynorthwest-politics/adam-smith-doug-basler/4263262","https://www.federalwaymirror.com/2026/08/19/final-primary-election-results-are-in-for-federal-way/","https://ballotpedia.org/Doug_Basler","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00566232/","https://jewishinsider.com/2026/07/smith-says-he-was-pressured-to-vote-against-israel-aid-by-violent-far-left-activists/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/adam-smith/us_congress/summary?cycle=2026&mpid=1045081","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WA09025/","https://www.votemelissa4congress.com/follow-the-money.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WA09061/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-wa-9/compare/adam-smith-vs-douglas-michael-basler"],"market_signals":[],"method":null,"panel":null,"panel_spread":null}},{"id":"wa-house-10-2026","title":"2026 Washington's 10th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Washington's 10th Congressional District","state":"Washington","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T16:34:06.967837+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Marilyn Strickland","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Marilyn-Strickland.jpg"},{"name":"Chris D. Chung","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://images.ivoterguide.com/candidates/081736.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Marilyn Strickland","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.95,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.95,"Republican":0.04,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Democrat Marilyn Strickland faces Republican newcomer Chris Chung in a strongly Democratic district (D+9 PVI; Harris carried it with 57% in 2024). Her dominant top-two primary showing (~47% vs. ~31%) and large fundraising advantage over a challenger with no disclosed committee filings reinforce a structural Democratic edge.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T16:33:53.653917Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Washington%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://legis1.com/news/marilyn-strickland-fundraising-follow-the-money","https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/WA/10","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/marilyn-strickland/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0WA10034/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/marilyn-strickland/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/HOUSE/WA/10/2026/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wi-governor-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin Governor Election","office":"Governor of Wisconsin","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T14:07:31.945915+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"David Crowley","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/David_Crowley.jpg"},{"name":"Tom Tiffany","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tom_Tiffany.jpg"},{"name":"Jamie Jo Carothers","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/JamieJoCarothers26.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"David Crowley","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.68,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.31},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Five public polls since July show David Crowley leading Tom Tiffany by 3 to 5 points, including Marquette Law School's 49-46 among likely voters in late September. Tiffany's roughly $26 million fundraising haul, most of it party transfers, and Wisconsin's narrow 2024 presidential margin keep the race competitive, so the Democratic edge is modest rather than secure.","takeaway":"Crowley holds a narrow but consistent polling lead in a swing state, making Democrats modest favorites to keep the open governorship.","key_reasons":["Crowley led in each of the five head-to-head polls since July, including Marquette Law School at 49-46 among likely voters (Sept 16-23) and 49-44 in August.","Tiffany's fundraising advantage — more than $26 million from July 1 to Sept 23, largely Republican Party of Wisconsin transfers — gives Republicans the resources to close the gap.","Wisconsin is a genuine swing state that Trump narrowly won in 2024, and this is an open seat with no incumbent on the ballot, which limits how much weight the polling lead can carry."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether Tiffany's large fundraising edge can overcome Crowley's consistent 3-5 point polling lead, and the only prediction-market reading is stale (mid-September) and richer than the polling margin warrants.","based_on_poll_count":5,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T14:07:27.699653Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://today.marquette.edu/2026/09/marquette-law-poll-finds-that-wisconsin-governors-race-remains-tight-crowley-49-tiffany-46-among-likely-voters/","https://today.marquette.edu/2026/08/marquette-law-poll-finds-crowley-leading-tiffany-among-likely-voters-tied-among-all-registered-voters/","https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-4/","https://www.wpr.org/news/crowley-leading-tiffany-four-points-new-poll","https://reforminggovernment.org/irg-poll-inflation-still-rules-free-markets-still-win-race-still-open/","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWI-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWI-26-R","https://www.wpr.org/news/funds-from-3-billionaires-give-tom-tiffany-huge-fundraising-lead-race-governor","https://www.channel3000.com/news/wispolitics-report-shows-parties-drive-wisconsin-campaign-fundraising/article_36ea748d-6814-4844-a72e-4996b36ba6a2.html","https://campaignfinance.wi.gov/browse-data/reports?specificCommittee=[16295]","https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/01/16/crowley-and-tiffany-lead-fundraising-in-governors-race/","https://www.wpr.org/news/crowley-outraises-hong-july-2026-democratic-primary-governor","https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=39294851&default=candidate","https://www.crowleyforwi.com/","https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/01/tiffany-more-than-doubles-crowley-on-cash-fueled-by-3-megadonors/92035513007/","https://campaignfinance.wi.gov/browse-data/registrant/16621","https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/07/16/tiffany-reports-over-8-million-haul-for-gov-race-while-barnes-leads-dem-field-in-fundraising/","https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/04/tom-tiffany-heads-into-general-election-with-nearly-5m-in-cash/91161111007/","https://www.wpr.org/news/fundraising-governor-tiffany-barnes-hong-rodriguez","https://campaignfinance.wi.gov/browse-data/registrants?office=%5B5%5D","https://www.facebook.com/jamiejocarothers/posts/a-campaign-transaction-report-heres-part-of-the-most-recent-report-i-filed-regar/28598740769714947/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYWI-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYWI-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.795,"yes_bid":0.79,"yes_ask":0.8,"last_price":0.81,"volume":500252.33,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:57.828803Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWI-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYWI-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYWI-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.195,"yes_bid":0.19,"yes_ask":0.2,"last_price":0.19,"volume":810066.02,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:49:58.828777Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWI-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.75,"Republican":0.24,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.68,"Republican":0.31,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.62,"Republican":0.37,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"wi-house-01-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:32.261613+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Bryan Steil","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/S001213.jpg"},{"name":"Mitchell Berman","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Mitchell_Berman.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Bryan Steil","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.64,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.36,"Republican":0.64},"margin_estimate":3.5,"rating":"tilt_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Steil defends a seat Republicans have held since 1994 that he won with 54.0% in 2024, and he holds a large financial advantage (about $5.47M raised and $6.33M cash on hand versus roughly $713K for Berman). September surveys show a near-tie, but the district's Republican lean, Steil's incumbency and committee stature, and market pricing near 65% Republican leave the incumbent modestly ahead.","takeaway":"Republicans are narrowly favored to hold WI-01, with Steil's incumbency and fundraising edge offsetting a near-tied September polling picture.","key_reasons":["Steil's incumbency, his 54.0% win in 2024 in a district Republicans have held since 1994, and a fundraising edge of roughly $5.47M to $713K with $6.33M cash on hand.","The two most recent surveys are effectively tied: Impact Research (House Majority PAC) had Berman 48-47 on Sept. 28 and DCCC Analytics had it 48-48 on Sept. 21, while the earlier Ragnar Research Partners poll (March 16) had Steil ahead 50-41.","Prediction market pricing puts Republicans near 65% to hold the seat, consistent with a competitive but Republican-favored race."],"uncertainty":"The race turns on whether the September near-tie in the DCCC Analytics and House Majority PAC-sponsored surveys reflects a genuinely tightening contest or a sponsor effect, since no independent district poll has been released since the Aug. 9 Impact Research survey and the March Ragnar poll showed a 9-point Steil lead.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:25.069390Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/berman-campaign-berman-leading-steil-in-new-poll/","https://dccc.org/dccc-polling-memo-wi-01-is-a-tied-race/","https://votehub.com/2026/07/29/weekly-polling-rundown-midwest-mayhem/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/berman-campaign-new-general-election-poll-er-nurse-mitchell-berman-in-dead-heat-with-bryan-steil-in-wisconsins-first-congressional-district/","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI1-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI1-26-R","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/bryan-steil/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8WI01156/","https://thebadgerproject.org/2024/11/02/final-report-bryan-steil-outraising-dem-challenger-in-race-for-se-wisconsin/","https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/26/u-s-rep-steil-advocates-for-crypto-while-industry-backs-his-campaign/88090159007/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/steil-outraises-dem-opponents-4-to-1-in-first-quarter/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI01283/","https://ballotbase.io/guide/federal/mitchell-berman-wi-h01-2026/","https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/08/11/berman-wins-democratic-nod-to-challenge-steil-in-wisconsins-1st-district/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWI1-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEWI1-26","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for WI-1?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.35,"yes_bid":0.34,"yes_ask":0.36,"last_price":0.36,"volume":24836.57,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:53.343154Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI1-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWI1-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEWI1-26","title":"Will Republican win the House race for WI-1?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.65,"yes_bid":0.64,"yes_ask":0.66,"last_price":0.66,"volume":48768.3,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:54.374963Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI1-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.64,"Democratic":0.36},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.65,"Democratic":0.35},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.62,"Democratic":0.38},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":4,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.03}},{"id":"wi-house-02-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-28T19:11:31.266768+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Mark Pocan","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://pocan.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/pocan-evo.house.gov/files/styles/evo_image_full_width/public/evo-media-image/dsc01212-2.jpg?h=a023c362&itok=ODi1XjkP"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Mark Pocan","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":1,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":1,"Republican":0},"margin_estimate":65,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"high","rationale":"No Republican filed for the November general election, leaving incumbent Democrat Mark Pocan unopposed after his decisive 88.3% primary win over Douglas Alexander. The Madison-anchored district's heavy Democratic lean, non-competitive since 2000, makes a Democratic hold a near-certainty.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-28T19:10:54.435826Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-congressional-primary-results-august-2026","https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/wisconsin-us-house-district-2-results","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2WI02124/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00502179/","https://thebadgerproject.org/2024/09/24/top-donors-to-rep-mark-pocan-in-the-2024-election-cycle-so-far/","https://thebadgerproject.org/2024/09/03/pocan-vastly-outraising-republican-challenger-in-rematch-from-2022/","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/mark-pocan/us_congress/summary?mpid=1089711"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wi-house-03-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-10T15:06:11.100410+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Derrick Van Orden","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Derrick-VanOrden.PNG"},{"name":"Rebecca Cooke","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rebecca_Cooke_2026.jpg"},{"name":"Alexander Valiensi Kent","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Alexander_Valiensi_Kent.jpg"},{"name":"Rustin Provance","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/RustinProvance23.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Rebecca Cooke","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.7,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7,"Independent":0.01,"Republican":0.29},"margin_estimate":3,"rating":"lean_d","confidence":"low","rationale":"Rebecca Cooke led in all four head-to-head surveys, including 50-46 in the FM3 Research poll ending June 25 and 50-46 in the Impact Research poll ending May 31, and she has outraised Van Orden roughly $8.6 million to $7.5 million. Van Orden's incumbency and a district Donald Trump carried 53-46 in 2024 keep the race competitive, but the polling and a heavily traded market pricing Democrats near 75% make Cooke a modest favorite.","takeaway":"Cooke holds a narrow but consistent polling lead over incumbent Van Orden in a closely divided district.","key_reasons":["Cooke led in each of the four head-to-head polls, with the two most recent — FM3 Research ending June 25 and Impact Research ending May 31 — both at 50-46.","Cooke's fundraising edge (about $8.6 million to $7.5 million) and her under-three-point loss to Van Orden in 2024 give her a credible path in a midterm environment.","Counterweights: Van Orden is the incumbent and the district voted for Donald Trump 53-46 in 2024, so the margin is likely to stay small."],"uncertainty":"No public general-election poll has appeared since late June, and the district's Republican lean plus Van Orden's incumbency mean the race could tighten; the market signal dates to mid-September.","based_on_poll_count":4,"generated_at":"2026-10-10T15:06:07.661398Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/wisconsin-3/","https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/wisconsin-us-house-3-polls-2026.html","https://www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/article_98fbb3cc-3067-44f7-86b2-19510509900c.html","https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-poll-rebecca-cooke-leads-derrick-van-orden-in-wi-03","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-D","https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-R","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rebecca-cooke/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WI03169/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2WI03163/","https://rustinforcongress.wixsite.com/website","https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2022"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWI3-26-D","event_ticker":"HOUSEWI3-26","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for WI-3?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.745,"yes_bid":0.74,"yes_ask":0.75,"last_price":0.75,"volume":117516.88,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:44:59.411388Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"HOUSEWI3-26-R","event_ticker":"HOUSEWI3-26","title":"Will a Republican win the House race for WI-3?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.255,"yes_bid":0.25,"yes_ask":0.26,"last_price":0.26,"volume":21394.51,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:03.616372Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/HOUSEWI3-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.72,"Republican":0.27,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.7,"Republican":0.29,"Independent":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":2.5,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.58,"Republican":0.4,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":3.5,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.14}},{"id":"wi-house-04-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T00:09:06.586247+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Gwen Moore","party":"Democratic","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Gwen_Moore.jpg"},{"name":"Tim Rogers","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tim_Rogers.jpg"},{"name":"Arthur Burks","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/629fb7b/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1176x1604+0+0/resize/880x1200!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F7f%2F18%2F8adbcf074df8a23e5efe4be5d6b0%2Farthur-burks.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Gwen Moore","predicted_winner_party":"Democratic","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.97,"Republican":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":50,"rating":"safe_d","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wisconsin's 4th has not elected a Republican since 2004, and Moore has held the seat since 2005, winning her 2026 primary with 70.5% against a challenger she has beaten in every general election since 2018. With no public polling and no evidence of a competitive challenge from either opponent, the structural Democratic advantage is overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:08:32.228430Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.wuwm.com/wisconsins-4th-congressional-district-candidates-2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/HOUSE/WI/04/2026/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WI04183/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/gwen-moore/summary","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/huntington-bancshares/C00165589/candidate-recipients/2024","https://pro.stateaffairs.com/wi/elections/steil-outraises-dem-opponents-4-to-1-in-first-quarter","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WI04274/","https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/WI/04/2026/","https://www.burks4congress.com/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wi-house-05-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T18:07:25.757539+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Scott Fitzgerald","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Scott_Fitzgerald_Official_Portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Andrew Beck","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/AndrewBeck2025.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Scott Fitzgerald","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"margin_estimate":25,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"high","rationale":"Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Fitzgerald faces first-time Democratic nominee Andrew Beck in a strongly Republican Milwaukee-suburbs district with no public polling. Fitzgerald's incumbency, the district's heavy GOP lean, and a roughly 95-to-1 fundraising advantage make a Republican hold overwhelming.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:54:28.029234Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin's_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00720011/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI05136/","https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/wisconsin-5/forecast/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/scott-fitzgerald/donors","https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://insideelections.com/person/scott-fitzgerald/","https://www.localcandidates.org/elections/2026-us-house-of-representatives-wi-5"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wi-house-06-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-09T07:03:43.937651+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Glenn Grothman","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/politician/photo/medium/Glenn_Grothman_117th_Congress_portrait_%28cropped%29.jpg"},{"name":"Bradley Smith","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BradleySmithWI2.jpeg"},{"name":"Matthew Arndt","party":"Green","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/aab9811/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1638+0+0/resize/880x704!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fdb%2Fb7%2F0644d93849e2801e332fc70e4b7a%2Fmatthew-arndt004-web.jpg"},{"name":"Elizabeth Fitzgibbon","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/1024x1024-headshot_20260621_055703_41816_1.png"},{"name":"Mike Thurow","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Michael_Thurow.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Glenn Grothman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9071,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.0309,"Green":0.0001,"Independent":0.0618,"Republican":0.9071},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"Wisconsin's 6th is a strongly Republican-leaning district that has not elected a Democrat since 1964, and incumbent Glenn Grothman has held it since 2014. The one available head-to-head survey shows him leading Mike Thurow 55-45 and Bradley Smith 61-39, while the non-Republican vote is split across four candidates with modest challenger fundraising.","takeaway":"Grothman is heavily favored to hold this Republican-leaning seat, with polling showing him well ahead of a fragmented challenger field.","key_reasons":["Deep structural Republican lean in an R+8 district held by Grothman since 2014 and by Republicans for decades","Tavern Research's May 2026 survey showed Grothman ahead of Thurow 55-45 and of Smith 61-39","The anti-incumbent vote is fragmented across Smith, Thurow, Arndt and Fitzgibbon, and challenger fundraising trails the incumbent's"],"uncertainty":"The race turns on how much of Thurow's independent, union-backed appeal and reported competitiveness materializes against a long-tenured incumbent, given that the only available head-to-head poll is from May 2026 and no newer survey or prediction-market signal exists.","based_on_poll_count":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-09T07:03:38.991849Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.tavernresearch.com/research-and-writings/wi06-grothman-independent-halves-margin","https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WI06048/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/glenn-grothman/summary","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/glenn-grothman/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI06191/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/smith-campaign-brad-smith-leads-all-challengers-to-incumbent-glenn-grothman-in-fundraising-fec-filings-show/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/bradley-smith","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI06274/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WI","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/elizabeth-fitzgibbon/positions/aadf6e8e-8249-4b27-9d4e-f767d2f0d945","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI06233/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/michael-thurow","https://ivn.us/in-the-birthplace-of-the-gop-an-independent-is-coming-for-a-republican-seat/","https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/thurow-campaign-new-olls-show-mike-thurow-cuts-grothmans-lead-in-alf-in-wi-06/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.95,"Democratic":0.03,"Independent":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":15,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.88,"Independent":0.09,"Democratic":0.029,"Green":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":10,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.82,"Democratic":0.12,"Independent":0.06},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":14,"confidence":"medium"}],"panel_spread":0.13}},{"id":"wi-house-07-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T05:03:34.494629+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Fred Clark","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Fred_Clark.jpg"},{"name":"Michael Alfonso","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/alfonsomichael_2026-05-28_022242.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"B","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Michael Alfonso","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.89,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.89,"Democratic":0.11},"margin_estimate":14,"rating":"likely_r","confidence":"low","rationale":"The 7th District's pronounced Republican lean, combined with Alfonso's large fundraising edge and Trump endorsement, makes him a clear favorite in this open-seat contest. Clark is a credible former state legislator with deep local roots, but no general-election polling exists to show the race has tightened.","takeaway":"Republicans are favored to win this open northwestern Wisconsin seat, where the district's strong GOP lean outweighs a sparse polling record.","key_reasons":["The district carries a strong Republican lean (roughly R+11), a substantial structural hurdle for any Democratic nominee in an open-seat race.","Alfonso reports roughly $1.35 million raised versus about $423,000 for Clark, plus a Trump endorsement and a $1 million super PAC transfer tied to Sean Duffy's former committee.","Clark's three terms in the state Assembly and 'new rural majority' message give him a credible profile, but there is no head-to-head polling to confirm a competitive margin."],"uncertainty":"With no general-election polling, the forecast rests on the district's partisan baseline and candidate fundamentals; the race turns on whether Alfonso's money and Trump backing outweigh Clark's legislative experience and rural outreach in a potentially favorable national environment.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T05:03:31.256108Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-polls/wisconsin/district-7","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00920868/","https://www.wisdc.org/pro10-104644.php","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI07223/","https://www.propublica.org/article/sean-duffy-michael-alfonso-congress-transportation","https://thebadgerproject.org/2026/03/24/sean-duffy-funneled-1m-to-support-son-in-laws-bid-for-congress/"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1_stabilized","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.8,"Democratic":0.2},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":7,"confidence":"medium"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.08,"Republican":0.92},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":17,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.12}},{"id":"wi-house-08-2026","title":"2026 Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District","state":"Wisconsin","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-29T17:47:52.741122+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Tony Wied","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Tony_Wied.jpg"},{"name":"Rick Crosson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rick_Crosson.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Tony Wied","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"margin_estimate":20,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wisconsin's 8th has a strong Republican lean (no Democratic winner since 2008), and first-term incumbent Tony Wied is heavily favored in a seat the major raters place in the Solid/Safe Republican column. Wied advanced unopposed and holds a massive campaign finance edge over Rick Crosson, who emerged from a fractured three-way primary with just 35.2% of the vote; no general election polling exists.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-29T17:47:29.531779Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WI08119/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WI08205/","https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/candidates/?election_year=2026&office=H&state=WI&district=08&per_page=100&api_key=DEMO_KEY","https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin's_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/tony-wied/summary","https://thebadgerproject.org/2024/11/01/final-report-top-donors-to-tony-wied-republican-for-ne-wisconsins-house-seat/","https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/20/rep-tony-wied-breaks-1-million-in-donations-in-campaign-for-congress/90986922007/","https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Wied-W000829/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rick-crosson/donors","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rick-crosson"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wv-house-01-2026","title":"2026 West Virginia's 1st Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"West Virginia's 1st Congressional District","state":"West Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-26T22:23:07.684118+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Carol Miller","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://miller.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/miller-evo.house.gov/files/styles/large/public/evo-media-image/RepMillerHeadshot2024.jpg?itok=6k7auQ2N"},{"name":"Vince George","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Vince_George_20260420_061528.jpg"},{"name":"Belinda Fox-Spencer","party":"Constitution Party","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Belinda-FoxSpencer.PNG"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Carol Miller","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.005,"Democratic":0.015,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":37,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"West Virginia's 1st District is a strongly Republican seat (R+22 PVI) where incumbent Carol Miller won 66.4% in 2024 and holds a large fundraising edge, while Democratic nominee Vince George's campaign is funded almost entirely by a personal loan with no reported spending. With no public polling and a third-party Constitution candidate in the race, a Republican hold is overwhelmingly likely.","takeaway":"Republican incumbent Carol Miller is heavily favored to win re-election in this safely Republican district.","key_reasons":["The district is strongly Republican (R+22 PVI) and Miller won re-election with 66.4% in 2024 as an incumbent on the House Ways and Means Committee.","Miller has a major fundraising advantage: roughly $1.75M raised versus George's ~$258K, nearly all a personal loan, with no spending reported as of June 2026.","No public polling exists, but the structural partisan lean, incumbency, and campaign-resource gap make a Republican hold highly probable."],"uncertainty":"There is no public polling for this race, and Constitution Party nominee Belinda Fox-Spencer could draw a few points as a third-party option, though neither factor is likely to threaten the Republican hold.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-26T22:23:04.839635Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://www.pollsmax.com/2026-us-house/west-virginia-1/forecast/","https://candidates.wvsos.gov/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8WV03097/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/carol-miller/donors","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/huntington-bancshares/C00165589/candidate-recipients/2024","https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/national-assn-of-home-builders/C00000901/candidate-recipients/2020","https://ballotpedia.org/West_Virginia%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WV01160/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/vince-george","https://ballotpedia.org/West_Virginia%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2022"],"market_signals":[],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.015,"Constitution":0.005},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":40,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.995,"Democratic":0.004,"Constitution":0.001},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":37,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Constitution":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.035}},{"id":"wv-house-02-2026","title":"2026 West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Election","office":"U.S. House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District","state":"West Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-27T23:04:01.454130+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Riley Moore","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/Moore_Riley_119th_Congress_%28cropped2%29.jpg"},{"name":"Ace Parsi","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://westvirginiawatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Ace-Parsi-973x1024.jpg"},{"name":"Patrick Carney","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null},{"name":"Christopher Whitcomb","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://janrvuropqrnptyieksp.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/politician-images/christopher-whitcomb-1778240677146.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Riley Moore","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":28,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Incumbent Riley Moore (R) holds a first-term seat in a district that has voted reliably Republican in recent cycles, and no public polling or contrary signals exist. The structural Republican advantage is overwhelming given the district's partisan lean, Moore's strong fundraising (~$1.33M vs. Parsi's ~$134K), and two minor independents splitting the non-Republican vote.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-27T23:03:39.898078Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/West_Virginia's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4WV02205/","https://www.facebook.com/DailyCaller/posts/the-crypto-industry-poured-nearly-200-million-so-far-into-candidates-backing-the/1445740807410490/","https://www.americanbanker.com/news/an-anti-esg-darling-campaigns-for-congress","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WV02150/","https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/congressional-candidates-showered-with-money-during-april-reporting-period/article_06afc5e6-fe3b-4908-98e9-453a04478be9.html","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WV02176/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6WV02168/"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wv-senate-2026","title":"2026 West Virginia U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"West Virginia","state":"West Virginia","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-10-08T14:02:30.456711+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Shelley Moore Capito","party":"Republican","incumbent":true,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Shelley_Moore_Capito.jpeg"},{"name":"Rachel Fetty Anderson","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Fetty_Anderson2.JPG"},{"name":"S. Marshall Wilson","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/S._Marshall_Wilson__West_Virginia_-7_fixed.jpg"},{"name":"Rio Phillips","party":"No Party Affiliation","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Rio_Phillips_2026-06-12_172014.png"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Shelley Moore Capito","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.9744,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.005,"Democratic":0.0201,"No Party Affiliation":0.0005,"Republican":0.9744},"margin_estimate":37,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"West Virginia's pronounced Republican lean, combined with Capito's incumbency, committee leadership, and roughly $4.6M raised versus Anderson's roughly $50K, leaves the Democratic nominee and the third-party and write-in challengers with no plausible path. Trading on this race prices a Republican win near 98%, and no public polling has surfaced to suggest otherwise.","takeaway":"Capito is a heavy favorite for a third term in a state that leans strongly Republican.","key_reasons":["West Virginia is one of the most Republican-leaning states in the country, and the seat has been held by Republicans since 2015.","Capito's incumbency, Senate committee gavels, and roughly $4.6M raised dwarf Anderson's roughly $50K grassroots campaign.","No public polling exists, but prediction markets price a Republican win at about 97-98%, with third-party and write-in candidates drawing minimal support."],"uncertainty":"With zero public polling, the forecast rests on the state's partisan lean, incumbency, and a thin-liquidity prediction market whose last trade dates to mid-September, so the exact margin is far less certain than the winner.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T14:02:25.470399Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWV-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWV-26-D","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2026","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/shelley-moore-capito/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4WV00159/","https://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2025/10/first-campaign-donations-to-willis-eclipsed-by-u-s-sen-capito-ahead-of-2026-primaries/","https://www.wvgazettemail.com/elections/capito-builds-huge-fundraising-advantage-with-pro-israel-help-amid-genocide-findings/article_3e693b69-5e8a-4047-8f51-12c7c742ad03.html","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/shelley-moore-capito/us_congress/organizations?mpid=1045219","https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/shelley-moore-capito/us_congress/industries?mpid=1045219","https://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2026/04/congressional-candidates-showered-with-money-during-april-reporting-period/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6WV00188/","https://www.localcandidates.org/politicians/rachel-fetty-anderson/donors","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6WV00204/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WV","https://wilsonwv.com/","https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00906396/","https://www.weirtondailytimes.com/news/local-news/2026/02/congressional-candidates-in-west-virginia-file-end-of-year-campaign-finance-reports/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEWV-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEWV-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in West Virginia?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.0195,"yes_bid":0.013,"yes_ask":0.026,"last_price":0.016,"volume":16037.78,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T23:05:30.043281Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWV-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEWV-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEWV-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in West Virginia?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.978,"yes_bid":0.972,"yes_ask":0.984,"last_price":0.972,"volume":9221.79,"liquidity":null,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:44.750569Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWV-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Constitution":0.006,"No Party 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Casner","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Screenshot_2018-08-14-10-27-59-1.png"},{"name":"Rebecca Bextel","party":"Constitution","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://oilcity.news/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Rebecca-Bextel.jpg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Eric Barlow","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.96,"party_probabilities":{"Constitution":0.01,"Democratic":0.03,"Republican":0.96},"margin_estimate":38,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country, and no Democrat has won a statewide race there since 2006. Barlow, a sitting state senator and former House speaker who won a contested August primary and raised a record sum, faces a Democrat who reported no campaign funds and a minor Constitution Party nominee.","takeaway":"Eric Barlow is overwhelmingly favored to keep Wyoming's governorship in Republican hands.","key_reasons":["Wyoming's deep Republican lean: the GOP holds a dominant statewide advantage and Democrats have not won a statewide election since 2006.","Barlow is a well-funded, experienced nominee (state senator, former House speaker) who won a competitive four-way primary, while Democrat Kenneth Casner reported $0 raised and $0 spent.","Markets price a Republican hold near 96-97%, consistent with the state's partisan history in an open-seat race."],"uncertainty":"No general-election polling exists for this race, and the Constitution Party nominee could peel off some conservative votes, though neither factor appears likely to change the outcome.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:07:19.612872Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWY-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWY-26-D","https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2026/Results/Primary/2026_Statewide_Candidates_Summary.pdf","https://cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/12/eric-barlow-earns-most-in-donations-for-gov-race-degenfelder-has-biggest-war-chest/","https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/politics-government/2026-08-26/barlow-campaign-shatters-wyoming-fundraising-records","https://wyofile.com/what-do-the-numbers-tell-us-about-the-wyoming-governors-race/","https://www.wycampaignfinance.gov/","https://wyofile.com/eric-barlow-wins-gop-nomination-for-wyoming-governor/","https://projects.wyofile.com/election-guide-2026/candidates/casner-kenneth/","https://buckrail.com/kenneth-casner-making-third-run-for-governor-only-dem-in-the-race/","https://wyofile.com/checkgates-rebecca-bextel-launches-insurance-policy-bid-for-wyoming-governor/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYWY-26-D","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYWY-26","title":"Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wyoming","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.035,"yes_bid":0.03,"yes_ask":0.04,"last_price":0.038,"volume":3265.67,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:50:01.255491Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWY-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"GOVPARTYWY-26-R","event_ticker":"GOVPARTYWY-26","title":"Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wyoming","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.967,"yes_bid":0.961,"yes_ask":0.973,"last_price":0.961,"volume":1611.1,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:50:02.383349Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYWY-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Constitution":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":45,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.018,"Constitution":0.002},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":38,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.03,"Constitution":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":35,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.02}},{"id":"wy-house-2026","title":"2026 Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District Election","office":"United States House of Representatives","jurisdiction":"Wyoming's at-large congressional district","state":"Wyoming","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-08-30T00:10:20.204969+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Chuck Gray","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Chuck_Gray_WY_portrait.jpg"},{"name":"Lisa Kinney","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Kinney_-Lisa_-72dpi_20260703_143035_43587_1.jpg"},{"name":"Daniel Workman","party":"Independent","incumbent":false,"image_url":null}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Chuck Gray","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.97,"party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.97,"Democratic":0.02,"Independent":0.01},"margin_estimate":35,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wyoming's at-large seat is an open contest, but the state's heavily Republican electorate — Trump carried it by nearly 46 points in 2024, his largest margin in any state — makes GOP nominee Chuck Gray an overwhelming general-election favorite over Democrat Lisa Kinney and independent Daniel Workman. No general-election polling exists, so confidence is capped at medium despite the unambiguous structural advantage.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-08-30T00:10:08.581151Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731","source_urls":["https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Wyoming,_2026","https://projects.wyofile.com/election-guide-2026/candidates/gray-chuck/","https://www.kotatv.com/2026/07/27/gop-candidates-wyomings-us-house-race-self-fund-campaigns-tune-nearly-6-million/","https://election-org-public-record.vercel.app/election/2026/us-house/wyoming/at-large","https://projects.wyofile.com/election-guide-2026/candidates/kinney-lisa/","https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6WY01108/1931074/","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WY"],"market_signals":[]}},{"id":"wy-senate-2026","title":"2026 Wyoming U.S. Senate Election","office":"United States Senate","jurisdiction":"Wyoming","state":"Wyoming","contest_stage":"post_primary_general","election_date":"2026-11-03","updated_utc":"2026-09-27T04:04:35.398839+00:00","candidates":[{"name":"Harriet Hageman","party":"Republican","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/Harriet-Hageman.PNG"},{"name":"James Byrd","party":"Democratic","incumbent":false,"image_url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/200/300/BYRD1-3_2__1__20260626_204953_30529_1.jpeg"}],"quality_grade":"A","forecast":{"predicted_winner_name":"Harriet Hageman","predicted_winner_party":"Republican","win_probability":0.98,"party_probabilities":{"Democratic":0.02,"Republican":0.98},"margin_estimate":39,"rating":"safe_r","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Wyoming has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1970 and remains one of the most Republican states in the country, and Rep. Harriet Hageman enters the general election with a statewide profile and roughly a hundredfold fundraising advantage over former state Rep. James Byrd. Trading on this race prices Republicans near 98%, consistent with the state's deep-red lean.","takeaway":"Hageman is an overwhelming favorite to hold this deep-red Wyoming Senate seat for Republicans.","key_reasons":["Wyoming's partisan lean is prohibitive for Democrats: no Democratic Senate win since 1970 and a roughly 46-point Republican presidential margin in 2024.","Hageman is a sitting U.S. representative with a strong conservative record and about $2.44 million raised, versus Byrd's roughly $23,000 raised and $356 cash on hand in July.","No public general-election polling exists, but prediction markets price Republicans at about 98%, matching the state's fundamentals."],"uncertainty":"There is no public general-election polling and the market is thin with a wide bid/ask spread, so the forecast rests mainly on Wyoming's partisan lean and the lopsided resource gap rather than direct vote evidence.","based_on_poll_count":0,"generated_at":"2026-09-27T04:04:32.342648Z","model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","source_urls":["https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWY-26-R","https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWY-26-D","https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2026/Results/Primary/2026_Statewide_Candidates_Summary.pdf","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6WY00209/","https://wyofile.com/hagemans-senate-campaign-fund-is-eight-times-larger-than-meads/","https://projects.wyofile.com/election-guide-2026/candidates/hageman-harriet/","https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/harriet-hageman/summary","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2WY00166/","https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6WY00217/","https://projects.wyofile.com/election-guide-2026/candidates/byrd-james/","https://insideelections.com/person/james-willard-mr-byrd/"],"market_signals":[{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEWY-26-D","event_ticker":"SENATEWY-26","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Wyoming?","matched_to":"Democratic","matched_party":"Democratic","implied_probability":0.02,"yes_bid":0.015,"yes_ask":0.025,"last_price":0.026,"volume":9604.63,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:47.192453Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWY-26-D","confidence":"high"},{"provider":"kalshi","market_ticker":"SENATEWY-26-R","event_ticker":"SENATEWY-26","title":"Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wyoming?","matched_to":"Republican","matched_party":"Republican","implied_probability":0.9784999999999999,"yes_bid":0.977,"yes_ask":0.98,"last_price":0.977,"volume":13947.33,"liquidity":0,"as_of":"2026-09-15T21:47:48.316254Z","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEWY-26-R","confidence":"high"}],"method":"panel_median_v1","panel":[{"model":"deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.98,"Democratic":0.02},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":40,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"openai/gpt-6-luna","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.99,"Democratic":0.01},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":39,"confidence":"high"},{"model":"x-ai/grok-4.3","party_probabilities":{"Republican":0.96,"Democratic":0.04},"candidate_probabilities":null,"margin_estimate":37,"confidence":"high"}],"panel_spread":0.03}}]